Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• Bank of America analysts on Tuesday left their S&P 500 year-end target unchanged at 7100, 5% below the index's Monday close, citing Big Tech's dwindling cash flows and the possibility of rate hikes.
• BofA sees opportunity in cyclical sectors like energy, materials, and tech hardware, which are growing fast due to booming data center spending and are positioned to weather higher rates.

Most on Wall Street expect more gains for stocks in the second half of 2026. Not everyone, however, is convinced.

Many of the dynamics that acted as tailwinds for the stock market in recent years—strong earnings, ample free cash flows, and high liquidity—“are reversing,” said Bank of America analysts in a note on Tuesday. The firm left its year-end S&P 500 target unchanged at 7100, implying about 5% downside from Monday's close. The index was up about 9% this year through yesterday after a double-digit second-quarter advance.

Bank of America has one of the most pessimistic market outlooks on Wall Street. Its target is the lowest of the 14 firms tracked by CNBC's strategist survey and nearly 10% below the median. The consensus on Wall Street heading into the second half of the year is that the strong earnings growth that's propelled the market to record highs is likely to keep stocks buoyant through year-end. 

Analysts on Wall Street are generally optimistic that corporate America's fastest earnings growth in years and a surprisingly resilient economy can push the stock market to more records this year.

Bank of America sees cracks in the façade of the earnings narrative that has the rest of Wall Street excited. The first quarter was the S&P 500's best in terms of earnings growth since 2021, but the index got an artificial boost from the paper value of investments, according to BofA. Strip out one-time gains for Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META), the bank argues, and the S&P 500's profit growth declines to 19% from 27%. 

Big Tech's other weakness is its waning ability to adapt to shifting circumstances. Tech giants' free cash flow as a share of earnings has collapsed to near 0% due to the AI data center buildout, on which hyperscalers Alphabet, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon, Meta, and Oracle (ORCL) are expected to spend well over $700 billion this year. That spending both ties Big Tech's hands—“they can't cut capex like in 2022/2023 without dropping out of the AI race,” the analysts wrote—and drains coffers that could be used on stock buybacks that support share prices and attract investors. 

Then there's the economy. With inflation surging to a three-year high last month and the labor market appearing stronger than expected, Bank of America's economists now expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point this year. The S&P 500 has historically seen positive returns during rate hiking cycles, but BofA notes that in three of the last eight cycles, the index peaked within an 18-month window around the first hike. In addition, the S&P is more expensive now than it was heading into any of those hiking cycles except the 1999 hikes that popped the Dotcom Bubble. 

Granted, higher inflation, rates, and capital expenditures can be bullish for certain stocks, if not the market as a whole. Historically, companies either returning cash to shareholders at a high rate or trading at modest valuations tend to perform best during rate-hiking cycles, according to BofA. At the moment, booming AI spending is generating ample cash and boosting sales growth for companies in cyclical sectors like tech hardware, energy, and materials, but their stocks aren't reflecting that growth, by BofA's measure.

“The current risk/reward in cyclical capex beneficiaries is strong: expectations are lower, the cash return and value characteristics that they sport have performed well during prior tightening cycles, and inflation is more of a positive than a negative in these sectors,” the analysts wrote. 

• Job openings rose to a two-year high in May, while consumer confidence in the job market sank to its lowest level since the pandemic.
• Hiring remains low despite the uptick in job openings.
• The two reports showed a continuing trend: hard data indicate the economy is on a solid footing, while the public remains deeply pessimistic.

Job openings ticked up to a two-year high in May, while consumer confidence in finding jobs sank to its lowest level since the pandemic, according to two separate reports Tuesday.

The encouraging news about the job market came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported U.S. employers had 7.6 million job openings in May, slightly higher than in April and the most since May 2024. For the second month in a row, there was more than one job available for every unemployed person, indicating the job market was roughly in balance between employers and job seekers.

However, a separate report on consumer confidence from The Conference Board research group showed that while overall consumer confidence inched up in June amid falling gas prices, 22.5% of U.S. adults surveyed said jobs were hard to get, the highest percentage since January 2021.

The improvement in job openings suggests the job market is in better shape than it was in 2025, but remains in a low-hire, low-fire limbo.

The bureau's report provided some statistical basis for the perception that it's hard to get hired, no matter how many job openings there may be. Employers hired 5.2 million people in May, relatively low by historic standards, and the fewest since December.

"While other labor market conditions have improved, the hiring rate remains depressed, which has caused consumers' perception of job availability to deteriorate," Gwen Zemmer, an economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. "Although we don’t anticipate a strong rebound in hiring this year, slower labor-force growth due to reduced immigration and an aging population will keep the unemployment rate in check."

The contrasting views of the labor market were a continuation of the recent tendency of hard data to show major economic indicators on a relatively solid footing by historic standards. Meanwhile, public opinion shows deep pessimism about inflation, the job market, and personal finances.

The job market has rebounded significantly since 2025, when tariffs pushed job creation down to its lowest level outside of a recession since 2003. The recovery has yet to register with job-seekers.

"The ‘hiring recession’ of 2025 may be over, but it will take more months of strong hiring to see confidence rebound more," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary.

This summer's next trading break comes Friday—and it comes with fireworks included.

Stock and bond markets will close on Friday, July 3, in observation of Independence Day, which is Saturday. And there's a bonus for bond traders: The bond market will close early, at 2 p.m. ET, on Thursday.

Friday's break means the summer trading holiday schedule is almost over. Stock and bond markets will close on Monday, Sept. 7, in observation of Labor Day.

The rest of the year's stock-market holiday schedule starts with Thanksgiving, though there are bond-trading breaks before Turkey Day.

News of the day for June 30, 2026

Stock futures are steady this morning after Monday's rally as the market look to close out the second quarter of the year on a high note; major stock indexes surged in the second quarter, while oil and gold prices tumbled owing to developments in the Iran war; Nike is set to releases its quarterly results after the closing bell; details about Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro were reportedly included in a massive leak following a hack of an Indian electronics manufacturer; and AeroVironment shares are rallying after the military contractor's earnings topped estimates. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are little-changed ahead of the final trading session of the month, after major indexes surged to start the week. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were up 0.1% recently, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near unchanged. Stocks jumped on Monday, with the Dow closing at a record high, as the market rebounded from a sell-off in tech shares last week. WTI crude oil futures were unchanged at just under $71 per barrel, while gold futures ticked lower to $4,045 an ounce. Bitcoin was trading at $59,200, down from an overnight high of $60,500. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects interest rates on loans, rose slightly to 4.39%.

The second quarter wraps up today, and it was a bumpy stretch for financial markets. Stocks are set to close out the quarter with huge gains, rebounding from the slump that followed the onset of the Iran war, though concerns about an AI bubble and possible rate hikes by the Fed have weighed on sentiment at times. For now, solid corporate earnings, bolstered by the strength of the U.S. economy and massive AI spending, are underpinning solid gains stocks. Through Monday's close, the Nasdaq had gained 20% in the quarter, while the S&P 500 and Dow were up 14% and 13%, respectively.

Other asset classes haven't performed as well. Gold has fallen 13% in the second quarter amid concerns that the Fed will have to raise rates to address the inflation sparked by the Iran war, though analysts see room for the precious metal to gain in the months ahead. Bitcoin has also dropped about 13% this quarter, and has given up more than half its value since hitting a record high around $126,000 last October. Oil prices have been on a rollercoaster in the owing to the war, but are now down 30% from where they ended March and have nearly returned to pre-war levels.

Nike (NKE) is due to release results after the closing bell today, giving investors their latest look at the athletic apparel giant's turnaround effort. Nike is expected to report $10.84 billion in revenue, a drop of about 2% year-over-year, along with earnings of 11 cents per share, according to analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. That would mark Nike's eighth straight quarter of declining profits. Analysts have said that CEO Elliott Hill's plan to return Nike to consistent sales growth will take time, after it was complicated last year by tariffs and slumping sales in China. Nike shares were up slightly ahead of the opening bell, and are down more than 30% this year, closing last week at a new lowest point since late 2014.

Apple (AAPL) is facing a serious security situation after photos that supposedly depict "hundreds" of parts used in its upcoming iPhone 18 Pro, as well as what companies the parts come from, were leaked to the dark web after a hack of Tata Electronics, an Apple partner in India, according to Reuters. Apple typically releases its new lineup of phones at an unveiling in September. The hack is doubly damaging as it reveals details about a phone that is not yet public and provides details about Apple's suppliers that the tech giant does not typically share, the report said. Apple shares were little changed in premarket trading after being left out of the tech rally yesterday.

Shares of AeroVironment (AVAV) are taking flight this morning after the defense contractor posted better-than-expected quarterly results. After the closing bell yesterday, the drone maker said it earned an adjusted $1.84 per share on $641.6 million in revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, well above the $1.48 per share and $559.4 million that analysts had forecast, per Visible Alpha estimates. AeroVironment shares were up 35% recently, after entering the day down more than 40% since the start of the year.

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced forward guidance is expected to increase market volatility.
• Bond yields may remain elevated due to inflation.
• Analysts predict inflation pressures could ease later in the year, reducing the need for rate hikes.

As bond markets take stock of the new Federal Reserve chair, there is one word that is at the top of their mind: volatility.

Traders are grappling with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's intentions to say far less about the Fed's plans for interest rates—leaving markets to fend for themselves.

It's a trend that reverberates far beyond Wall Street. Bond markets are where interest rates on mortgages are set, so any swings there could make home-buying cheaper or more expensive on any given week.

Those swings are likely coming more often, analysts say, particularly on jobs report day and other critical economic data releases.

"With Chair Warsh pivoting away from forward guidance, market volatility is likely to increase and upcoming labor and inflation data will become even more critical to watch," wrote Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities.

Upcoming economic reports may have an even bigger impact on markets as the Fed withholds any hints about the path ahead.

In his first press conference, Warsh told reporters that markets "perform best when they react to incoming data," rather than by overanalyzing the Fed's guidance and diluting vital market signals.

"When all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said, then we're taking the most important source of information and we're being blind to it," Warsh said. "I'd like us to create a system where those blinders come off."

It's a view that's likely to "mark a regime change for markets," according to Guneet Dhingra, head of U.S. rates strategy at BNP Paribas.

A more unpredictable Fed could ultimately push up interest rates, Dhingra cautioned, as markets guard against a wider range of scenarios. Traders may now be forced to "price a much higher risk of earlier rate hikes" this year, Dhingra wrote, as well as the possibility of surprise hikes at any given Fed meeting.

"In theory, this gives the market a free hand to price a policy path based on economic data," Dhingra wrote. "In practice, this freedom for markets comes with a cost."

One bit of good news: some analysts, such as TD Securities' Goldberg, expect bonds to stay "range-bound," with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield benchmark swinging between 4.25% and 4.7%. The bad news: that range is higher than before the Iran war, when the 10-year yield was below 4%.

That could mean that the 30-year mortgage rate, which dipped below 6% just before the Iran war, may stay closer to 6.5% for now.

"Range-bound is the operative theme and there is little to suggest that we're on the precipice of a new directional trend in U.S. rates," wrote Vail Hartman, a rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Markets, just like the Fed, are waiting for more clarity on whether the U.S. economy can remain resilient despite the shock to energy prices from the war in Iran.

Thus far, the economy's strength has been clear, bolstering the case for rates to stay higher, some analysts say. U.S. employers added 172,000 jobs in May, and high gas and airfare prices failed to meaningfully dent consumer spending.

"We think investors can abandon inhibitions about a dovish bias from the Fed and price more (and potentially sooner) rate hikes, commensurate with U.S. economic strength and broadening inflation," BNP Paribas’ Dhingra wrote.

Bond yields can go up when inflation is on the rise or when the economy is booming, as strong demand can push up prices and force the Fed to hike short-term rates. Anticipating the Fed's actions, bond markets raise longer-term interest rates, such as the 10-year yield or 30-year mortgage rate.

Inflation has picked up since the war started, with the May data showing consumer prices rose by more than 4%—double the Fed's 2% target.

Pressures have eased after tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, but the Fed "still has an inflation problem despite plunging oil prices," according to Ed Yardeni, a veteran economist and president of Yardeni Research.

"The AI spending boom is driving up electricity bills and consumer electronics prices," Yardeni wrote, noting Apple's price hikes due to memory cost pressures.

Other analysts think inflation pressures are likely to fade later in the year. Fed officials' forecasts were certainly hawkish this month, with half of them anticipating a rate hike in 2026, wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.

But that signal "should be interpreted with caution," Gapen wrote. For one, the Fed's forecast could've just as easily signaled no hikes ahead if Warsh had chosen to submit his own dot. The Fed's projections also may not "fully incorporate potential disinflationary forces from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," Gapen wrote.

Airfares, for example, are likely to ease now that oil prices have fallen. The lingering tariff impacts on inflation should also gradually normalize, he wrote, lessening the need for Fed hikes.

"While the meeting clearly leaned hawkish in tone and communication, the underlying inflation trajectory we anticipate remains consistent with the Fed staying on hold through year-end," Gapen wrote.

Still, he noted, the risks are clearly "skewed to the upside."

• Constellation Brands' next earnings report is due Tuesday afternoon, with analysts projecting a decline in sales amid weaker alcohol consumption trends.
• Options pricing suggesting traders expect the beer and wine maker's stock could swing up to 6% in either direction by the end of the short week.

Constellation Brands is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with traders anticipating a sizable move from the wine and beer maker's stock.

The Modelo and Corona owner's stock is seen swinging up to 6% in either direction by the end of the holiday-shortened trading week, based on recent options pricing. A move of that size from Monday's close could see the stock climb back above $147, recovering some of its recent losses, or slip below $132.

Constellation Brands (STZ) shares are not much higher than where they started the year, up just about 1% for 2026 so far. They've lost 14% from the same time a year ago, pressured by weaker demand for alcohol.

Constellation, along with many of its peers, has seen sales hampered by broader shifts in demand and changing tastes, with Americans becoming increasingly budget-conscious and younger generations drinking less than their older counterparts.

UBS analysts recently cut their price target for Constellation to $175 from $186 ahead of the results, along with their estimates for the year "to largely reflect weaker beer consumption trends." Goldman Sachs analysts said earlier this month that a weaker-than-expected Memorial Day weekend could be indicative of the "challenging macro environment" facing the broader beer industry, though they suggested Constellation may fare better than some competitors, thanks to the popularity of specific brands such as Modelo.

Constellation is expected to report revenue of $2.4 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, down about 5% year-over-year, in what would be a fifth straight quarter of declining sales, along with adjusted earnings of $3.20 per share, per estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Analysts still lean bullish on Constellation's stock, however, with six of the nine analysts tracked by Visible Alpha recommending buying the stock, compared to two neutral and one "sell" rating. All eight see gains ahead, with an average price target of $178, suggesting nearly 30% upside from Monday's close.

• State Street launched its Nasdaq 100 ETF last week, and BlackRock's could land soon. Both could press the Invesco QQQ ETF on the fees investors pay.
• Nasdaq 100 is set to add SpaceX to its index next week, which means the funds tracking it will have to buy the stock.

When the biggest game in town has competition, customers stand to benefit.

Invesco's QQQ (QQQ), a Nasdaq-100 tracking exchange-traded fund, is just about synonymous with the index it tracks—and among the biggest ETFs, with roughly $480 billion in assets under management, according to VettaFi. But it's getting more competition from some big ETF shops: State Street (STT) and BlackRock (BLK) want to compete with the first mover almost three decades after the fact. That stands to be a good thing for investors, because when issuers hit the market with virtually identical products, they tend to woo customers with lower expenses.

When index-tracking ETFs compete with one another, they can start a fee war. That can bode well for investors' wallets.

Indeed, State Street's SPDR Portfolio Nasdaq 100 fund (QNDX) launched last week, charging 0.10%, which means for every $10,000 invested, one would pay $10 in annual management fees. That's lower than QQQ's current 0.18% fee. BlackRock's iShares, meanwhile, filed in April to launch its own product using the symbol "IQQ." (It hasn't said what it plans to charge.)

The proliferation of Nasdaq 100 funds stands to boost shares of SpaceX (SPCX), which is set to join the tech-heavy index next week. Per Nasdaq's fast-tracking rule change that went into effect in May, stocks with less than a 33.3% float—how much of the company's overall shares are available to the general public to trade—will be weighted in the index at a maximum of three times its float value. Given SpaceX's modest float of around 550 million shares, it will likely have a weight in the index at under 1%, because as of March 2026, a company with a float of $180 billion had a 1% weighting in the Nasdaq 100.

With that said, one doesn't necessarily need to use Nasdaq 100 funds to add tech exposure to one's portfolios. Other ETFs also do that without being associated with the index—and those who are already invested in a S&P 500 fund or a total market fund also have substantial tech exposure.

Vanguard's Information Technology ETF (VGT), for example, has an expense ratio under 0.1%. It tracks a different index from MSCI.

Episode 301 of the Investopedia Express Podcast with Caleb Silver (June 29, 2026)

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What can the recipe for the world's best guacamole teach us about building a resilient portfolio? We find out as Jess Inskip joins the Express for a Guacamole, Money, and Markets masterclass. Jess shares her ingredients for building a portfolio for today's stock market, and practical tips for investors of all ages. Plus, we look at the stock market's midyear report card and find areas of strength and a lot of room for improvement.

• Strategy said it may sell bitcoin to build up its cash reserves, fund its preferred stock's dividends, and buy back those shares along with its common stock.
• The news helped Strategy's shares gain ground Monday after a bruising week.

A bitcoin whale is hawking its crypto. Today, investors see it as good news.

Strategy (MSTR), the enterprise software company known for buying bitcoin, is now poised to sell $1.25 billion worth, equivalent to roughly 21,000 coins at recent prices. The announcement, made Monday—a time when the company customarily announces bitcoin purchases—appears to be working in its favor: Its common stock, along with its "Stretch" preferred stock, also known as "STRC," are up more than 12%, while the price of bitcoin was recently drifting toward $60,000.

The company's bitcoin "monetization program" lands after Strategy's stock and its preferreds took a beating last week as the price of bitcoin fell to fresh lows. The stock tumbled to levels last seen in 2024, while STRC slid almost 30% under its par value. Now the company appears to be working to shore up its array of crypto-linked securities.

Strategy's just-announced plans to sell more of its bitcoin stash could put pressure on the price of the crypto. Today, though, it's helping the company's shares.

At issue, along with the price of bitcoin falling recently to half last year's record highs, is the health of Stretch, which pays holders a variable dividend twice a month at a rate the company sets to keep prices close to its par of $100. When those preferreds began to detach from par, it fired up speculation about how much the company would have to pay out in a dividend to bring them back.

The company, per its filings, is attacking the problem from a few angles, raising the dividend to 12% effective next month from 11.5%. The pledge to sell bitcoin, meanwhile, is meant to shore up confidence in the company's ability to keep paying STRC shareholders by boosting its cash pile. Strategy also said that it would sell bitcoin in order to buy back its preferred and common stock. Strategy's plan to buy $1 billion of common and $1 billion of its preferred stocks roughly translates to 11% of its bitcoin stash, according to Citi. The move, the bank said in a report Monday, "buys MSTR more time for BTC to potentially stabilize."

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said the firm's latest plans were "designed to strengthen digital credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation" in a social media post on Monday.

That said, the company has to reckon with the crypto market downturn. If the price of bitcoin stays stable, the company would be selling at levels below its average acquisition price of around $75,000. When it announced a relatively small sale in May that was its first in years, it reported collecting cash at higher than its historical average.

• Amazon shares climbed Monday, amid broader tech sector gains.
• The company is coming off its annual "Prime Day" sales event, which some data suggests topped expectations, and a decision to raise prices for some cloud services.

Tech stocks are back on the rise after a slump last week, and Amazon is leading the way.

Amazon (AMZN) shares were up over 3% in recent trading, after surging as much as 7% earlier in the session, in the wake of a string of positive developments. It was among the leading gainers on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a broadly strong day for tech stocks, following signs of strong online spending during its four-day "Prime Day" event and demand for its cloud computing services.

An analysis from Adobe reportedly suggested spending across online retailers in the U.S. reached $26.4 billion over the course of Amazon's Prime Day event, topping the firm's projection. JPMorgan analysts said Monday they estimate Prime Day likely increased third-party sales by 6% per day of the sale compared to last year's Prime Day event, and 7% for first-party Amazon products. Amazon and Adobe did not respond to Investopedia's requests for comment in time for publication.

Amazon's Monday gains could be a sign that the stock is turning a corner after a rough stretch for the AI trade in recent weeks.

Late last week, Amazon Web Services also announced plans to raise prices for renting access to hardware used for training and running AI models, effective at the start of July. The company said its prices are "updated periodically based on supply and demand," with prices for the compute reservations reportedly rising by some 20% after a 15% increase earlier this year.

Amazon's move to lift prices could serve as a positive signal for the broader AI trade, indicating that cloud providers are continuing to see strong demand from companies looking for compute capacity.

With Monday's gains, Amazon shares are up about 4% since the start of the year, after climbing back into positive territory on Friday. Still, they remain nearly 14% off their highs in May.