Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

The work-from-home trend has survived efforts by major companies to make their employees return to the office.
Credit: Morsa Images / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Five years after the onset of the pandemic, 35% of U.S. workers are telecommuting on an average day, according to a new survey.
• The share working from home stayed below the 2020 peak of 42% but well above the 22% recorded in 2019.

Five years after the pandemic, its biggest workplace change has stuck, especially for highly educated and highly paid employees.

That's according to the American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics published Thursday, which showed 35% of U.S. workers ages 15 and over worked from home on a typical workday in 2025. That was down from 42% in 2020, but well above the 22% in 2019.

What This Means for the Economy

Working from home has reshaped the broader economy, most visibly the housing market, where it lifted demand for larger homes with room for an office.

The data confirm that, among all the changes the pandemic brought to the economy, the shift to working from home has endured, no matter how much executives at major companies have tried to stamp it out.

Highly educated and highly paid workers are the most likely to be clocking in wearing their pajamas. Workers with bachelor's degrees are more likely to work from home on a given day, with 51% telecommuting, according to the survey. For those with advanced degrees, it was 57%.

The ability to work from home increases dramatically with how much you're paid. More than half (53%) of those making $2,021 a week or more (that is, at least six figures a year) worked from home at least part of the workday, compared with just 13% of those earning $803 or less (equating to an annual salary of $43,680 or less).

Shares of Rocket Lab and Iridium Communications soared Monday.
Credit: Cheng Xin / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Shares of both Iridium Communications and Rocket Lab rose Monday following the news that the companies plan to merge, with a deal expected to close next year.
• Investor interest in space stocks and related assets—including some popular exchange-traded funds—has perked up, likely in part due to the arrival of SpaceX on public markets.

Rocket Lab and Iridium Communications plan to combine—and both companies' shareholders like the deal.

Iridium Communications (IRDM) shares soared 21% in early trading Monday after Rocket Lab (RKLB) said it was acquiring the satellite communications network provider for $54 per share in cash and stock, or about $8 billion. Shares of Rocket Lab jumped 8%. (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.)

Rocket Lab, which bills itself as providing "launch services, spacecraft, payloads and satellite components serving commercial, government, and national security markets," said the combination would create "a fully vertically integrated space powerhouse primed for growth."

Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash plus shares of Rocket Lab stock at closing, which is expected in mid-2027. Rocket Lab said it has received commitments for a $3.6 billion loan facility from Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, and intends to fund the cash component "through a combination of cash from its balance sheet and other debt and equity financing sources."

Investor interest in space stocks and related assets—including some popular exchange-traded funds—has perked up, likely in part due to the arrival of Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX) on public markets. Combining with Iridium could help Rocket Lab better compete with SpaceX, which also launches rockets and provides satellite internet with its Starlink service. "By marrying Iridium's deep heritage, trusted infrastructure, and highly sought-after spectrum with Rocket Lab's extensive and proven launch and manufacturing capabilities, we have the capability to unlock entirely new markets," Rocket Lab founder and CEO Peter Beck said.

Shares of Iridium and Rocket Lab are up 205% and 33% since the start of the year, respectively.

Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The Supreme Court has blocked President Donald Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
• The ruling is a setback to Trump's efforts to influence the central bank and its monetary policy.
• The president has never before fired a Fed official, and the court said allowing it would undermine the central bank's independence.

The Supreme Court blocked President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Monday, dealing a blow to the president's efforts to reshape the central bank.

In a 5-4 ruling, the high court denied the government's request to remove Cook immediately, allowing her to remain in office while a lower court decides the case.

The legal battle began last August when the Trump administration accused Cook of falsifying mortgage documents. In a majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said the Cook could stay on the job while a lower court decided if the accusations met the standard of "for cause." The law requires the president to meet that legal requirement to remove a Fed official, because the central bank operates as an independent institution within the federal government but outside the direct control of the White House.

What This Means For The Economy

Allowing Cook to remain on the job reinforces the Federal Reserve's independence from direct White House control. Economists say the Fed's independence is crucial for its credibility and its ability to keep inflation in check.

The ruling is a setback for Trump's efforts to install his own appointees on the Fed's seven-member Board of Governors, which makes up the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee, the body that sets the nation's monetary policy.

Supporters of Cook, including former chairs of the Federal Reserve, have argued that the unprecedented firing would have undermined the central bank's independence and harmed its ability to carry out its mission of keeping inflation low and employment high. The Supreme Court sided with that argument in its ruling.

"Acceptance of the Government’s position would in effect transform the Federal Reserve’s for-cause protection into at-will employment—an interpretive leap out of step with the statute Congress enacted and our Nation’s tradition of central banking protected from political interference," Roberts wrote.

The case revolves around a letter that Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte sent Cook, which he described as a "criminal referral." In the letter, Pulte accused Cook of incorrectly identifying a vacation home as a primary residence, which could have helped her get a lower mortgage rate.

Cook, through her lawyer, Abe Lowell, has denied any wrongdoing, saying it was a simple paperwork error corrected in other documents. Lowell argued that the accusations were a pretext to remove Cook and pave the way for a Trump nominee to take her spot on the board.

Trump has repeatedly demanded the Fed sharply lower interest rates, which Fed officials have not done out of concern that inflation is running above their annual target of a 2% rate, and that lower borrowing costs could worsen the problem.

"This was never about mortgage documents signed years before I became a Federal Reserve governor," Cook said in a written statement. "It was an attempt to remove me on a manufactured pretext because I refused to bow to political pressure and continued to set interest rates based only on what would best serve the American people."

The ruling did not stop Trump's efforts to fire Cook, which will play out in lower courts.

"The Cook Lawsuit, having to do with her suitability in sitting on the Board of the Federal Reserve, was sent back by the Supreme Court on a strictly procedural basis," Trump posted on social media following the ruling. "We will take appropriate action immediately to make sure that someone who has committed wrongdoing will not be making vital decisions concerning the Welfare of the United States of America!"

In a separate ruling, the court expanded the president's authority to remove members of other independent agencies besides the Federal Reserve. In Trump vs. Slaughter, the court ruled 6-3 that Trump could fire officials of the Federal Trade Commission, which was also established to have a degree of independence from the White House, and that the requirement that FTC commissioners could only be removed for cause was unconstitutional.

Update, June 29, 2026—This article has been updated to correct the day on which the ruling was issued and to add additional information on the ruling and the statement from Lisa Cook. It was originally published June 29, 2026.

Even with Monday's gains, Comcast's stock is down about 10% year-to-date
Credit: AaronP / Bauer-Griffin / GC Images / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Comcast shares popped after the company announced plans to spin off NBCUniversal into its own public company in about a year.
• The move will make the TV, film, streaming and theme parks business a standalone company, with Comcast focused on its internet and cell service business.

Comcast shares are soaring after the company announced plans to split its media and technology businesses.

Shares of Comcast (CMCSA) were up over 9% in recent trading after the media giant said that NBCUniversal, which is made up of NBC, Telemundo, Sky, and the Peacock streaming service along with the Universal film studio and theme parks, will be spun off from Comcast around this time next year.

Comcast said that after the spinoff, it will exist solely the provider of internet and wireless cell service through its Comcast and Xfinity brands, and plans to retain a 19.9% stake in NBCUniversal. Brian Roberts will serve as co-CEO of the combined company until the split, when co-CEO Mike Cavanagh will take over NBCUniversal, and former CFO Michael Angelakis will return to serve as the new CEO of Comcast, the company said.

Why This Matters to Investors

The move would give investors greater flexibility, with the option to invest in either or both of the businesses.

Roberts said the new NBCUniversal will be "well-positioned to pursue the significant opportunities that lie ahead, to partner across the media and entertainment ecosystem, and will be poised to grow." Comcast hosted a call Monday to discuss the separation, and investors will also likely hear more about the decision when the company reports earnings on July 23.

The spin-off is the latest move to slim down from Comcast, which already spun off its cable business Versant (VSNT), which includes CNBC and MS NOW, formerly MSNBC, around the start of the year after announcing that plan in 2024. Even with Monday's gains, Comcast's stock is down about 10% year-to-date after a monthslong slump amid concerns about declining subscribers and intensifying competition.

Speculation that there may be more telecommunications mergers and acquisitions activity in the works could also be lifting other stocks in the sector today, with Liberty Broadband (LBRDA, LBRDK) and and Charter Communications (CHTR) both up more than 13% recently. (For more reporting from Investopedia on today's market moves, click here.)

Some analysts now wonder “what could the Comcast piece do,” after the spinoff, LightShed Partners’ media and technology analyst Rich Greenfield said Monday morning on CNBC. “Is this prelude to a Charter merger? What else could happen in the future?”

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.

Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Credit: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could have an outsized impact on policy in the second half of the year.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh is shifting to a less predictable communication strategy, which could make markets more reactive to economic data.
• Inflation remains a key concern, and traders anticipate rate hikes later this year.
• Warsh’s five task forces are reviewing major aspects of Fed policy, which could lead to significant long-term changes.

The Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, has big plans for the central bank—and markets will be hungry for clues on his overhaul in the next few months.

The Fed will no doubt grapple with its regular policy debate: should it keep interest rates flat, raise them if the Iran war’s inflationary impact lingers, or perhaps cut them if it fades?

But there’s a bigger debate underway: how should the Fed conduct policy beyond 2026? The potential overhaul could impact household borrowing costs for years to come, and Warsh has kicked off the process with a series of task forces.

Some changes are already visible. The Warsh-led central bank is saying a lot less, with a far shorter Fed statement devoid of any “forward guidance.” Warsh appears keen on keeping markets guessing, a major shift for investors who’ve long been accustomed to the Fed giving hints about its next steps.

"Taken together, the message is clear: the Fed is moving toward a more reactive, less prescriptive communication strategy," wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.

The upside is the Fed can be more nimble as the economy changes—and markets can read less into Fed speeches and more into hard economic data. Markets “perform best when they react to incoming data,” rather than figure out how the Fed may react, Warsh said in his June 17 press conference.

The downside is that a less predictable Fed could make markets more volatile, analysts caution.

The Fed’s ability to guide markets and the public is “one of its most powerful tools,” wrote Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Marc Giannoni. It helps markets, businesses and households make decisions about future spending, Giannoni wrote, and cutting back on that guidance may not be worth the cost.

“Without guidance, markets risk mispricing policy intentions, increasing market volatility and complicating policy execution, especially given that monetary policy works largely through expectations,” Giannoni wrote.

Hike or No Hike?

Though Warsh offered little firm guidance, markets are preparing for rate hikes.

It is partly because “the Fed’s inflation problem has gotten unambiguously worse,” according to Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America. Inflation is now hovering around 4%, double the Fed’s target and marking the latest shock after last year’s tariffs.

“The Fed was willing to look through the tariffs, but it is losing patience after the latest round of supply shocks,” Bhave wrote.

The little guidance that Warsh gave this month centered around bringing inflation back to 2%—a message markets took as hawkish. The Federal Open Market Committee also leaned hawkish, with half of its 18 members suggesting in their projections that they’d favor hiking this year.

Other analysts see the Fed keeping rates flat this year.

“The other half of the committee doesn’t think the Fed will hike. We agree with them,” wrote James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, adding that “a lengthy pause is our call.”

The inflation picture should “improve markedly over the next 12 months,” Knightley wrote, with gas prices already falling and airfares likely to follow.

He also cautioned that the May jobs report, which showed U.S. employers added 172,000 jobs, may be overstating the labor market’s strength. Consumer sentiment about their job prospects is “bleak,” he noted.

“While the improving jobs numbers are great news, some caution is warranted,” he wrote.

Task Force Delays?

Analysts are also closely watching for news from the five task forces Warsh announced, as they could signal major changes ahead.

The “task force is strong with this one,” wrote Oscar Munoz, head of U.S. economics at TD Securities. The changes are likely to be gradual, but the scope of the five task forces is “likely to leave investors nervous about large changes to Fed's policy,” Munoz wrote.

One covers how the Fed communicates, including the changes that Warsh already implemented. Another is expected to analyze how to measure the economy in the freshest possible manner. A third is on the hottest topic in economics—productivity and the job market as artificial intelligence takes hold. A fourth will review the Fed’s basic theory of how inflation works.

It could all mean any potential Fed rate hikes are postponed or tamped down.

“We think this review process is likely to delay major policy adjustments as the Committee reassesses its framework and tools, and any lack of consensus among policymakers could further slow implementation, ” wrote Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS.

The task forces could give Warsh a chance to “punt” on interest rate policies for a while longer, wrote Derek Tang, CEO and co-founder at Monetary Policy Analytics.

Balance Sheet

The fifth task force could make markets particularly jittery: the future of the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet. The staggeringly large number stems from the Fed’s massive interventions in bond markets after the 2008 and 2020 crises, as the central bank sought to calm panic and keep rates low by buying bonds in bulk.

The Fed has slashed its bond holdings from a peak of nearly $9 trillion in 2022, but they remain sizable nonetheless. Warsh has called for unwinding that gradually, arguing that the Fed’s large footprint in markets “disproportionately helps those with financial assets.”

Cutting back is far from easy, since markets are used to lots of cash sloshing through the banking system. Though not immune from stresses, an ample supply of cash can help keep conditions in the plumbing of financial markets stable—without disruptions that spill over into the broader economy.

After the 2008 financial crisis, Congress and regulators also sought to make banks safer by requiring them to keep far more cash stashed away as reserves. Any changes to those rules could pose trade-offs to the financial system’s stability and would take at least several months, analysts say.

But without taking on that work, it’ll be hard for Warsh to make the Fed’s balance sheet a lot smaller, wrote Joseph Abate, a U.S. interest rate strategist at SMBC.

“Shrinking the balance sheet without reducing reserve demand would cause significant disruption in funding markets,” Abate wrote, presenting a challenge for a Fed that historically has “little tolerance” for volatility in the plumbing of the financial system.

News of the day for June 29, 2026

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have closed lower in each of the last five sessions.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week, as tech shares look to rebound from last week's slump; investors are keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend; Comcast shares are soaring after the company announced plans to split its media and technology businesses; SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 index next week; and earnings from Nike, Constellation Brands and General Mills are on deck this week, along with the June jobs report. Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Point Higher to Kick Off Short Trading Week

Stock futures are rising this morning after tech sector weakness spurred losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq last week. Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were recently up 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.5%. All three indexes pulled back on Friday, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their fifth straight day of declines, while the Dow managed to eke out a modest gain for the third week in a row.

WTI crude oil futures were up about 1% at $70 per barrel as investors monitored developments in the Middle East (more on that below). Gold futures were down 1% at $4,055 an ounce, extending what has been a rough first half of the year for the precious metal. Bitcoin was at $60,400, after sinking as low as $58,000 late last week, its lowest point since late 2024. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on all sorts of loans, ticked higher to 4.38%.

Iran, US Trade Strikes Over The Weekend

Tensions flared in the Middle East over the weekend, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging new strikes while the sides are supposed to be in the midst of peace talks. President Trump said Iran attacked a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping passage that is a central issue in the conflict, leading the U.S. to attack several sites in Iran, which Iran retaliated against by launching drones and missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait, countries that host U.S. military bases. Reports emerged late last night that the sides had agreed to halt the attacks and refocus on negotiation efforts for a longer-term deal over the strait and Iran's nuclear program that could end the war.

Comcast Stock Surges On Plan to Split Tech, Media Businesses

Comcast (CMCSA) shares are soaring after the company announced plans to split its media and technology businesses. The company said this morning that NBCUniversal, which is made up of several TV networks and the Peacock streaming service along with the Universal film studio and theme parks, will be spun off from Comcast around this time next year. The spin-off is the latest move to slim down from Comcast, which already spun off its cable business Versant (VSNT), which includes CNBC and MS NOW, formerly MSNBC, around the start of the year. Comcast shares were up 22% in recent premarket trading.

SpaceX Set to Join Nasdaq 100 Next Week

SpaceX (SPCX) shares are rising this morning following the announcement that the rocket, AI and connectivity company will be added to the Nasdaq 100. Nasdaq said late Friday that SpaceX will join the index ahead of the opening bell on July 7, following several other moves for the index that took place last week as part of its typical quarterly rebalancing. The move was expected after the index provider and others made changes to their rules ahead of SpaceX's debut earlier this month to allow for the companies carrying out massive IPOs—Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to follow in SpaceX's footsteps soon—to be added to the major indexes sooner than normal. SpaceX shares, which ended last week only slightly above where they had started trading two weeks earlier, were up more than 2% ahead of the opening bell.

What to Watch This Week: Nike Earnings, Jobs Data

Investors will be keeping a close eye on a few big-name earnings reports and important economic data ahead of Friday's trading break. Nike (NKE) and beer maker Constellation Brands (STZ) are each set to release their quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday, while General Mills (GIS) will report earnings on Wednesday morning. On the economic front, a report from the Conference Board on consumer confidence will provide insights on how Americans feel about the economy as the Iran war has sparked high fuel prices and broader inflation. The big event of the week will be the June jobs report, scheduled for release Thursday morning. Hiring in May was stronger than expected, but the labor market has been in a low-hire, low-fire mode for some time.

Stocks rose through a turbulent first half of 2026, and experts see more gains and volatility ahead.
Credit: Nicolas Economou / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Analysts expect stocks to continue to rise through the end of the year as a resilient economy and massive AI investments support strong earnings growth, helping to offset the drag from higher interest rates and inflation fears.
• The AI stock rally is seen expanding further than it already has to include suppliers of data center goods and services across the industrials, materials, utilities, and tech sectors.

Heading into the second half of 2026, the consensus on Wall Street looks clear: Robust corporate earnings should help the bull market charge past risks and hiccups. 

The S&P 500 is up more than 7% this year through Friday, though the journey was volatile. The benchmark index nearly entered a correction in March as the war in Iran drove oil prices and bond yields higher—then a torrid rally off those lows pushed it to a series of record highs throughout April and May before a breather in June. 

Why did the market set record after record while the largest oil supply shock in history pushed inflation to its highest level in three years? According to Capital Group, the reason is simple: “Earnings are on a tear.” The S&P 500's profits increased 28% year-over-year in the first quarter, its fastest pace since 2021. And the expectation that this can continue could keep stocks rising, many experts say.

Why This Is Important

Wall Street analysts predict the AI data center buildout and a resilient economy will keep corporate earnings growing at a healthy clip this year, propelling stocks higher despite inflation and interest rate uncertainty.

“Investors are witnessing growth rates typically seen in the early stages of an economic recovery, not 4 long years into a record-setting bull market,” Fidelity analysts wrote recently. Wall Street didn't see this strength coming: According to Wells Fargo, the index's actual earnings growth is beating Wall Street's start-of-year estimates by a wider margin than any year outside of a recession rebound in data going back to 1991.

Expectations are rising now. Analysts have raised their full-year S&P 500 earnings estimates by about 10% since the start of the year, an “unprecedented” increase that “is typically seen only after a shock or post-recession,” according to JPMorgan. Wall Street now expects the benchmark index to increase earnings by 22% this year.

The driving force behind that growth is the AI data center boom. Hyperscalers—Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL)—are expected to spend well over $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026. That spending on semiconductors, servers, and other data center equipment has boosted the earnings of chip designers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO), as well as memory suppliers like Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK), the S&P 500's best-performing stocks this year.

Unlike in recent years, AI spending is benefiting businesses across the economy, not just Silicon Valley. After nearly a year of contracting, manufacturing activity entered expansion territory in January and has stayed there ever since. According to BCA Research, the median S&P 500 company is expected to grow earnings a respectable 14% over the next year.

“AI can't run without the physical economy,” write Capital Group analysts, which is why they and other experts see Big Tech's AI spending driving demand for power generation and electrical equipment, grid infrastructure, engineering services, machinery, and more. Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on stocks in the technology, industrials, materials, and utilities sectors that are expected to benefit the most from that demand.

Experts warn that the road ahead is likely a bumpy one. Soaring oil prices recently drove inflation to a three-year high, forcing the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates. While oil prices declined to their pre-war levels in recent weeks and analysts expect inflation to fade, even the possibility of higher rates will likely keep a cap on stock multiples.

The second quarter's blistering rally—and the way investors chased it—could create its own volatility problems later this year. Investors have piled into speculative growth stocks more aggressively than they have in decades, putting the market's top performers at high risk of a reversal or flash crash, according to JPMorgan. Investors got a taste of that volatility during a couple sharp sell-offs in June. A revival of the AI bubble debate could dent the rally, as it has repeatedly over the past couple of years.

Tech stocks may also have to contend with a flood of new issues competing for investor dollars if AI labs OpenAI and Anthropic follow through with their plans to go public this year. (The OpenAI deal may not happen in 2026, according to reports.) Some investors may sell some of their best-performing stocks to make room for the fast-growing AI darlings in their portfolios.

Whether the companies pull the trigger on those IPOs may depend on what happens with newly public SpaceX (SPCX) in the coming months. Shares of Elon Musk's space and AI company charged out of the gate when they debuted in mid-June but have since fallen as investors dialed down their risk appetite.

And there are fresh signs that the costs associated with AI-powered growth are weighing too heavily on companies—and threaten consumers, too. Apple (AAPL) was one of several companies to recently say it was raising prices on some of its personal-tech products because of memory costs, conjuring the specter of demand destruction. Investors reacted strongly to the news, pulling the company's shares down dramatically on Thursday.

Analysts recommend investors be selective with their stock picks in the second half. Barclays analysts argue the AI trade could broaden later this year to include companies implementing and monetizing the technology. In the meantime, they, along with Wells Fargo, suggest investors prioritize AI-exposed companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and durable revenue streams.

Shares of SpaceX are set to join another big index next month.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Nasdaq on Friday said SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 index on Monday, July 7.
• The move means shares of Elon Musk's company will soon be added to popular index-tracking funds like the Invesco QQQ Trust.

Shares of SpaceX rose Monday, advancing following the news that the company will soon be added to an influential tech index.

SpaceX (SPCX) stock was recently up 3% at near $158. Nasdaq late Friday said the company will join the Nasdaq 100 index before the open on Monday, July 7. The move follows five other changes to the index announced earlier this month as part of periodic rebalancing.

The move was widely expected after Nasdaq and other index providers made moves ahead of the company's June 12 IPO to speed the path of mega-IPOs—including SpaceX, but also expected offerings from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI— into their measures. Still, investors have watched closely for confirmation of the changes, seen as giving the shares a boost because of buying by funds that track the index; the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is the most widely known.

A number of indexes had already added SpaceX, leading to buying from funds at Vanguard, BlackRock, and other asset managers. It was added to the Russell 1000 after Friday's close, making today its first session in that index.

Active managers are also buying: Several of Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management funds, including the flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), bought shares on Friday, according to trade disclosures.

SpaceX shares finished last week a bit above $153, leaving them little changed after two weeks of trading relative to the price where they first opened. It's been a busy two weeks, with the stock so far both rising above $226 and dipping below that $150 open price. They've yet to approach their $135 IPO price, though.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the start of trading.

Bitcoin has wiped out over $2 trillion from its market capitalization since its October peak.
Credit: Photo by Joao Luiz Bulcao / Hans Lucas / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The price of bitcoin, recently below $60,000, has fallen over 30% so far this year through Friday.
• Spot bitcoin funds have seen outflows of over $4 billion through June 25, according to Farside Investors.

Bitcoin hasn't had much to celebrate in 2026. And while there's reason to think it could turn higher, investors are looking elsewhere these days.

The world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, bitcoin—recently under $60,000, it has fallen over 30% so far this year—has underperformed U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil over the same period. Since its October peak around $126,000, it has lost half its value, shedding over $2 trillion from its market capitalization. That has weighed on crypto stocks, too: Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL) and Bullish (BLSH) are all down at least 7% year to date through Friday's close.

That weakness has dented bitcoin's image both as a go-go risk asset and as a hedge. Its bleed has driven momentum chasers to faster-moving things, some market watchers say, including AI-linked stocks, gold (though it has itself swooned), oil-linked assets, and the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO.

"If you were a value investor, you'd be buying at these prices," Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at Charles Schwab, said in a mid-June panel. "But that's not how crypto investors work. They're chasing momentum."

That shows in spot bitcoin funds, which have seen roughly $4.5 billion leave their coffers this year through June 25, according to Farside Investors. Bitcoin miners—with the coin trading below production costs recently estimated at $78,000 apiece, according to JPMorgan—are now increasingly likely to power down or transition to running AI data centers.

The crypto industry has also seen some turbulence. Bitcoin whale Strategy (MSTR) in June sold some of its holdings for the first time in years. Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, failed to secure European Union licensing under its new regulatory regime, cutting off access to millions of users, though the company said it intends to try again.

Still, the industry has made inroads. Major institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab, for example, have launched new crypto products and platforms this year.

Affairs in Washington remain an overhang. The passage of the Clarity Act, a broad market structure bill, could help shake crypto out of its rut, experts have said, and signs of progress—or retreat—in recent months have spurred meaningful short-term moves in crypto and related assets.

Regulatory guidance issued in March looked encouraging at first, but ultimately didn't signal enough progress toward the act's passage, experts said. Negotiations have dragged, which Ferraioli said only increases the risk that it won't pass. Mizuho analysts earlier this month said it's unlikely to become law this year due to "too many unresolved issues."

Among them is Democrats' preference for stronger language barring politicians from profiting from crypto legislation, according to Mizuho. Banks, meanwhile, remain unhappy about the state of the legislation regarding stablecoin rewards. The crypto and banking industries are "evenly" matched on lobbying resources, the firm said; some experts say more engagement from President Donald Trump could help, though he may be more concerned with issues including war in Iran and the midterm elections.

To be sure, some see returns on the horizon. "I'm a bitcoin bull—from a very, very long-term perspective," said Katie Stockton, founder of technical research firm Fairlead Strategies, on CNBC Friday. "It's really hard to buy into weakness, but it's often the right thing to do."

Some historical data, meanwhile, suggests bitcoin could slide to a range of $40,000 to $46,000 between now and the fourth quarter, Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn said in a June report.

Gold has lost more than a quarter of its value since prices surged to a record high in late January.
Credit: Photo by Emmanuele Contini / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Gold prices have fallen significantly this year, with spot gold down 5% year-to-date and 27% from its January high.
• Central banks are expected to increase gold reserves, potentially supporting prices in the second half of the year.
• Analysts have lowered gold price forecasts due to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, but some still see potential for upside.

Where has the bullion bull gone, and will it return? Investors are likely wondering.

Gold was already limping along when the Federal Reserve's new chair, Kevin Warsh, handed the market a hawkish message earlier this month, driving Wall Street to pencil in the possibility of higher interest rates and sending precious metals to fresh lows. The Fed's redoubled commitment to taming inflation took some shine off gold because yield-bearing assets such as Treasury notes tend to be relatively more attractive in high interest-rate environments.

Spot gold prices, recently at around $4,100 per troy ounce, have fallen about 5% since the beginning of the year and are down 27% from their January record high of $5,600. Silver, whose rally was even more powerful than gold's last year, is down roughly 50% from its all-time high of around $122, and off 17% year-to-date. Those losses are a stark contrast to the performance of the precious metals last year, when gold and silver gained about 65% and 150%, respectively, and were among the top performing financial assets.

Lately, commodities analysts and portfolio strategists have turned more negative on gold's near-term prospects, citing changing expectations around monetary policy, but they also seem to be holding on to some optimism that precious metals could stage a comeback in the second half given how far they've fallen.

What's the bottom line for investors?

While Wall Street firms have turned more negative on gold's prospects, their base case outlooks for the next six months still imply upside of 20% of more, rivaling U.S. stocks' gains last year.

The main argument for upside in gold prices, which underlies many Wall Street firms' outlook for the metal, is that central bank reserves are increasingly tilting toward gold, and away from the U.S. Dollar and Treasurys. Investors have bought under the same premise—a strategy that shifts capital away from currencies and into hard assets, called the debasement trade.

State Street Investment Management's gold strategists led by Aakash Doshi said that trends driving the "bullion bull cycle", including demand for hedging currency debasement, should remain intact in the second half.

Gold prices have been challenged lately but could hold at $4,000 because "investors will buy gold price dips," they said in a June report. The firm's base case puts gold somewhere between $4,750 and $5,500, and its bull case, around $6,000, would be a new record.

Both central banks and investors slowed their purchases as the Iran war delivered a historic energy shock and drove oil prices sky high, creating a liquidity issue for some countries and driving inflation concerns in others, but the recent truce between the U.S. and Iran could revive buying activity. It bodes well for gold that a recent World Gold Council survey showed that 45% of 76 central bank respondents said they expect to increase their gold reserves over the next year.

However, gold is "on the back burner for most investors," according to Greg Shearer, JPMorgan's head of base and precious metals. But there are other sources of demand that would at least set a price floor, and maybe a higher ceiling, he said. For example, China has been building up its gold reserves "to establish the renminbi as a credible reserve currency alternative" to the greenback, he added.

JPMorgan recently cut its gold price forecasts by $600 to $5,300 for the third quarter and by $300 to $6,000 for the fourth. The year-end target still implies upside of about 45% from current levels.

Goldman also turned "tactically cautious" on gold's near-term prospects, citing "no Fed cuts" this year in a report published in mid-June. Between that and the "surprisingly hawkish" tone of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Trump-appointed Warsh, the bank now expects gold to reach $4,900 by the end of the year—$500 lighter than their previous forecast. At recent levels that would imply upside of 20%.

Goldman's bull case—a rebound in gold demand as a macro policy hedge—would push gold prices to over $6,000, and its bear case—the Fed hikes rates this year—would imply gold to end the year around $4,400.

Either way, gold moves higher from here.