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Where has the bullion bull gone, and will it return? Investors are likely wondering.
Gold was already limping along when the Federal Reserve's new chair, Kevin Warsh, handed the market a hawkish message earlier this month, driving Wall Street to pencil in the possibility of higher interest rates and sending precious metals to fresh lows. The Fed's redoubled commitment to taming inflation took some shine off gold because yield-bearing assets such as Treasury notes tend to be relatively more attractive in high interest-rate environments.
Spot gold prices, recently at around $4,100 per troy ounce, have fallen about 5% since the beginning of the year and are down 27% from their January record high of $5,600. Silver, whose rally was even more powerful than gold's last year, is down roughly 50% from its all-time high of around $122, and off 17% year-to-date. Those losses are a stark contrast to the performance of the precious metals last year, when gold and silver gained about 65% and 150%, respectively, and were among the top performing financial assets.
Lately, commodities analysts and portfolio strategists have turned more negative on gold's near-term prospects, citing changing expectations around monetary policy, but they also seem to be holding on to some optimism that precious metals could stage a comeback in the second half given how far they've fallen.
While Wall Street firms have turned more negative on gold's prospects, their base case outlooks for the next six months still imply upside of 20% of more, rivaling U.S. stocks' gains last year.
The main argument for upside in gold prices, which underlies many Wall Street firms' outlook for the metal, is that central bank reserves are increasingly tilting toward gold, and away from the U.S. Dollar and Treasurys. Investors have bought under the same premise—a strategy that shifts capital away from currencies and into hard assets, called the debasement trade.
State Street Investment Management's gold strategists led by Aakash Doshi said that trends driving the "bullion bull cycle", including demand for hedging currency debasement, should remain intact in the second half.
Gold prices have been challenged lately but could hold at $4,000 because "investors will buy gold price dips," they said in a June report. The firm's base case puts gold somewhere between $4,750 and $5,500, and its bull case, around $6,000, would be a new record.
Both central banks and investors slowed their purchases as the Iran war delivered a historic energy shock and drove oil prices sky high, creating a liquidity issue for some countries and driving inflation concerns in others, but the recent truce between the U.S. and Iran could revive buying activity. It bodes well for gold that a recent World Gold Council survey showed that 45% of 76 central bank respondents said they expect to increase their gold reserves over the next year.
However, gold is "on the back burner for most investors," according to Greg Shearer, JPMorgan's head of base and precious metals. But there are other sources of demand that would at least set a price floor, and maybe a higher ceiling, he said. For example, China has been building up its gold reserves "to establish the renminbi as a credible reserve currency alternative" to the greenback, he added.
JPMorgan recently cut its gold price forecasts by $600 to $5,300 for the third quarter and by $300 to $6,000 for the fourth. The year-end target still implies upside of about 45% from current levels.
Goldman also turned "tactically cautious" on gold's near-term prospects, citing "no Fed cuts" this year in a report published in mid-June. Between that and the "surprisingly hawkish" tone of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Trump-appointed Warsh, the bank now expects gold to reach $4,900 by the end of the year—$500 lighter than their previous forecast. At recent levels that would imply upside of 20%.
Goldman's bull case—a rebound in gold demand as a macro policy hedge—would push gold prices to over $6,000, and its bear case—the Fed hikes rates this year—would imply gold to end the year around $4,400.
Either way, gold moves higher from here.
June jobs numbers are coming, and investors are likely to study them even more carefully now that the Fed is eyeing higher interest rates. The week will build toward the labor market figures, with updates on consumer sentiment and the performance of major retailers due first.
This month's employment figure, due Thursday, comes as research suggests the labor market is improving. The number of jobs rose for a third consecutive month in May, with employers adding more workers—172,000—than anticipated while unemployment remained low.
Still, workers are wary. The public is about as pessimistic as it was during the Great Recession, with 54% of Americans saying they expect unemployment to rise in the next year, according to the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumer Sentiment. Investors will get another look at consumers' mood when The Conference Board updates its Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday.
The labor stats—and surging inflation—have fueled speculation that the Fed may raise its benchmark rate. At least half of the Fed's policymakers anticipate increasing the rate this year, and new Chair Kevin Warsh is emphasizing the Fed's mandate to provide price stability.
Rising prices have prompted consumers to spend more cautiously, according to companies like Home Depot and McDonald's. More household names may weigh in on how consumers are faring, with Nike slated to report Tuesday and General Mills on Wednesday.
Market RecapIt was a mostly down week for stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell every day last week, logging weekly losses, though the Dow managed a small weekly gain, its third in a row. Shares were weighed down by a tech stock sell-off, though investors embraced memory chip companies when Micron Technology (MU) reported strong results. Bitcoin finished the week just under $60,000. For more on last week's action, read Friday's market recap here.
This Week's Top EventsHere's a look at notable events this week, which for investors will be shortened by the Independence Day holiday. TradingView publishes a more detailed calendar, but clicking the link will take you off the Investopedia site.
SK Hynix, a South Korean memory giant, may start trading on the Nasdaq in July, Kara Greenberg reports. A viral Reddit thread has transformed Wendy's into a meme stock, Crystal Kim writes. Researchers say wages and salaries now amount to the smallest share of economic output on record, Diccon Hyatt reports. And recent declines in shares of SpaceX have pulled Elon Musk out of the trillionaire's club—of which he was the only member.
Lately, it hasn't been easy to find a job, but it's been relatively easy to hang on to one if you're employed.
Economists see little that is likely to shake up that holding pattern in the coming months, assuming the economic disruptions from the war in Iran continue to fade.
The unemployment rate has remained low by historical standards at 4.3% in May, but job opportunities and hiring remain subdued. Many forecasters expect it to stay right where it is. However, forecasters anticipated varying levels of monthly job growth.
The job market has proven resilient to recent upheavals, including tariffs and the Iran war's energy shock, and many forecasters expect that resilience to continue in the second half of the year, supporting consumer spending and overall economic growth.
Economists at Goldman Sachs are among those who see the job market staying on its current trajectory, although they anticipate slower employment growth than in recent months.
They think U.S. employers will likely add 60,000 jobs per month in the second half of the year, less than a third of the rate they did in March, April, and May, which all featured unexpectedly high job gains in the six figures. That would be slightly more than required to keep the unemployment rate stable, by Goldman's estimation.
Similarly, forecasters at Fannie Mae expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for the rest of 2026 and on through 2027. At Wells Fargo, economists anticipate about 95,000 jobs will be added per month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.3%.
If those forecasts are correct, the job market would end 2026 in much better shape than it did in 2025, when tariffs and economic uncertainty had pushed job growth to its lowest outside a recession since 2003.
However, some forecasters believe the recent improvement is more fragile than it seems on paper.
For instance, Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, expects the unemployment rate to climb to about 4.75% by the end of the year. Among other reasons, Tombs sees red flags in recent surveys of small business owners who say they are scaling back their hiring plans after being hit harder by tariffs than their larger counterparts.
Similarly, forecasters at S&P Global believe the labor market is on fragile footing, with the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6% by the end of the year. S&P analyst Satyam Panday noted that recent job gains have been limited to a few industries, suggesting the overall market is vulnerable to a slowdown.
"The strength is real but narrow: leisure and hospitality and local government accounted for roughly three-quarters of the May gain, while the cyclical private core (manufacturing, construction, professional services) was little changed and financial activities continued to shed jobs,"
Other experts see the job market improving significantly as the year goes on. Forecasters at JP Morgan led by Hussein Malik, Head of Global Research, expect the unemployment rate to drop to 4.1% by the end of the year and edge down to 4% by 2027.
"We expect the labor market to remain on a solid footing," he wrote.
This has been a historic year for new listings. We're not done yet.
SpaceX's (SPCX) record-breaking debut is already in the books, having landed mid-June to much fanfare with the stock rising and falling dramatically since. That has investors looking ahead to what could be next—including the possibility of offerings from ChatGPT maker OpenAI and Claude maker Anthropic, both of which have recently filed confidential paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (OpenAI is reportedly reconsidering its timing.)
Elon Musk's space, connectivity and AI company has become a barometer of investor enthusiasm for new listings after booking the largest IPO in history. Early gains propelled it into the ranks of the world's most valuable public companies, and made Musk the world's first trillionaire, leading many market watchers to hail it as a sign of growing confidence in new AI listings—though it's since pulled back, highlighting some of the risks of rushing to buy volatile new stocks.
The 2026 cohort of IPOs is shaping up to be one that could have unprecedented influence on broader markets early after their debuts.
A number of other high-profile names, including Anduril, Discord, and Kraken, could make their debuts soon too. Here are some of the trends that have defined the IPO market's blockbuster start to 2026, and what they could mean for investors heading into the second half.
Larger Deals, But Fewer of ThemAfter years of sluggish activity, the dollar value of funds raised by IPOs this year could be on pace to exceed the record set in 2021, according to analysts at firms including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Russell Investments. There's a caveat, though: That big headline number may not mean far more IPOs, since outsized contributions from heavyweights such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could mean fewer listings drive those proceeds.
SpaceX alone raised $75 billion in its recent IPO, more than all IPOs in the U.S. over the prior two calendar years combined, according to Renaissance Capital. The next-largest IPO this year so far was that of AI chipmaker Cerebras (CBRS), which raised $5.6 billion, followed by nine others that raised over $1 billion each. SpaceX, along with these firms, accounted for the vast majority of a combined $110 billion in proceeds raised since the start of the year by fewer than 80 companies, according to Renaissance. It took nearly 400 companies to reach $142 billion in IPO proceeds in 2021.
Today's IPO pipeline "is skewing larger and later‑stage, reflecting years of private capital formation and company maturation," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote recently, with many companies choosing to stay private longer while they build scale and brand recognition.
The size of these listings has given way to worries that they could squeeze out enthusiasm for smaller firms, pushing some to pursue later listings or other avenues of going public. After months of speculation about a potential IPO from analytics and AI solutions platform Databricks, CEO Ali Ghodsi earlier this month told Bloomberg Television his company would not go public in 2026. “This is a terrible year to go public,” he said, pointing to expected IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic, which are both valued at more than five times Databricks' $134 billion figure.
Special purpose acquisition company deals, which can offer companies a faster, lower-cost route than traditional IPOs, are also on the rise. Nearly 100 SPAC listings have raised a combined $17.1 billion so far this year, up from 53 and $9.6 billion, respectively, a year ago, according to PwC.
Bringing Big AI EnergySpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: It's hard to miss that one of the biggest common threads uniting these companies, and many of the others going public this year, is their ties to the AI industry. BlackRock in a June report estimated that tech and AI companies could account for between one-quarter and one-third of listings this year, dominating the current IPO landscape.
That could mean a significant expansion of the industry's influence, as well as the degree to which investors holding broader market funds become exposed to it, amid what remains a great deal of uncertainty about how the technology could impact business and the broader economy.
"At private market valuations of hundreds of billions of dollars, the market is underwriting not only a promising software product, but a long-duration bet on AI becoming a core layer of the economy," LPL Financial Head of Equity Research Tom Shipp wrote last week.
While some investors have grumbled about the idea that big IPOs are being rushed into indexes—though the S&P 500 did not update its rules for that purpose—many investors have been happy to ride the wave. Analysts at Vanda Research suggested earlier this month that some market softness ahead of SpaceX's IPO was in part due to retail and other investors selling assets to free up cash to bet on SpaceX.
Greater Exposure and VolatilityRecent moves by major index providers to tweak their rules to fast-track SpaceX into their products could also bring it and other new listings to funds faster than you might expect, exposing a broader range of investors to the shares.
That shift could be concerning given new listings have earned a reputation for being more volatile, and riskier than stocks with longer track records. “Historically, first-year IPO performance has been choppy, the median outcome has been negative in our sample, and drawdowns have been severe," according to LPL, which said most posted losses.
Shares of AI chipmaker Cerebras (CBRS), which popped shortly after launching this year's second-largest IPO to date in May, have plunged since. The stock, which recently traded at around $173 after posting first-quarter results that disappointed, is about 50% off its opening price last month.
“Strong first-day demand has not necessarily translated into sustained outperformance. That is a useful reminder for investors preparing for larger and louder offerings,” LPL wrote.
Nike is slated to post its latest quarterly results after markets close Tuesday, with traders anticipating a big move in the athletic apparel giant's stock.
Based on current options pricing, Nike (NKE) shares are seen swinging up to 8% in either direction by the end of the week following the results. A move of that size from Friday's close just under $41 could see shares sink below $38, which would be Nike's lowest point in 12 years. At the high end, shares could potentially rise above $43, recovering some of their recent losses.
Nike shares have slumped 36% since the start of the year, as worries about the progress of CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround plan since he took over in late 2024 have weighed on the stock. A week ahead of the results, Nike announced its latest executive change, with Pfizer (PFE) CFO David Denton agreeing to take over Nike's CFO role on Aug. 16. Current CFO Matthew Friend will step down before leaving Nike on Sept. 4.
A strong report from Nike could help improve sentiment around the stock, which has slumped lately amid concerns about the company's turnaround.
UBS analysts, recently trimming their price target to $50 from $54, said their checks across the athletic apparel industry indicated that Nike had "lackluster global sales momentum" through May. The analysts said they expect Nike to give a conservative current-quarter forecast, with long-term projections likely not coming until Nike's investor day in the fall.
Analysts polled by Visible Alpha are looking for Nike to report $10.84 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, down about 2% year-over-year, while the consensus earnings per share forecast of 11 cents would mark Nike's eighth straight quarter of declining profits. Nike said when announcing Denton's hiring that it expects fourth-quarter results to be in line with previous forecasts aside from a one-time benefit from tariff refunds.
Wall Street analysts' targets lean optimistic, but many have hesitated to recommend buying Nike's stock amid its turnaround. Eight of the 11 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha have neutral ratings for the stock, compared to two "buy" recommendations, and one "sell" rating. Their mean price target of $58 would suggest over 40% upside from Friday's close.
Palantir's stock just broke its recent losing streak, with signs some high-profile investors are buying the dip.
Shares of Palantir (PLTR) rose over 5% to close around $113 Friday, marking their first winning session after seven straight days of declines that dragged them to their lowest point since last April. It was one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, on a day when the broader indexes lost ground.
Among those buying the dip was Cathie Wood's ARK Invest. Her firm bought up more than 30,500 Palantir shares on Thursday across three of its flagship exchange traded funds (ETFs), trade notifications show. Wood's firm, known for making bets on disruptive tech stocks, has also been snapping up shares of slumping Cerebras (CBRS), along with cryptocurrency-related firms Coinbase (COIN) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) amid a rough stretch for Bitcoin.
Palantir's rise Friday could potentially point to a rebound and improving sentiment, after a rough stretch for the stock.
Even with Friday's gains, Palantir's stock has lost more than a third of its value since the start of the year, amid some concerns about its valuation relative to its fundamentals, and a broader pullback in software driven by worries about potential disruption from AI.
Analysts on Wall Street lean largely bullish on Palantir, however. Four of the six analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha have called the stock a "buy," while two have neutral ratings. Their mean price target around $202 would suggest a nearly 80% rebound that would bring it back near its November highs.
This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.
The AI startup behind ChatGPT is reportedly considering postponing its IPO plans after watching SpaceX's stock decline.
OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO to next year.Investors who'd been looking forward to OpenAI's hotly anticipated IPO this year might just have to wait.
The AI startup behind ChatGPT is considering postponing its public debut plans to next year, after watching SpaceX's (SPCX) stock hit the skids just weeks after its record IPO, according to a report from The New York Times. The startup had been expected to list in the second half of the year, after filing paperwork confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this month. OpenAI did not respond to an Investopedia request for comment in time for publication.
Private companies tend to go public when market vibes are good, hoping to see strong demand for their offerings and debut trading—but sentiment appears to have shifted in the wake of SpaceX's launch, with a tech rout that pressured shares of several chipmakers and hyperscalers this week.
SpaceX recently traded around $157, just above its opening price of $150, and about 30% off its intraday peak around $225. That price action has also stripped founder and CEO Elon Musk of his trillionaire superlative. (For more reporting from Investopedia on today's market moves, click here.)
Companies tend to target listing when they believe investors' appetite is strong—but the market's recent pullback could have some of the hottest startups rethinking the timing of their plans.
Shares of AI chipmaker Cerebras (CBRS), which held the title of this year's largest IPO prior to SpaceX's debut, have taken a dive too, after its first-quarter results as a public company appeared to disappoint. The stock, which recently traded at around $173, has dropped 50% from its opening price roughly one month after its May debut.
OpenAI delaying its IPO could also have a chilling effect on other new listings expected this year, including rival AI startup Anthropic, which confidentially filed to go public earlier this month.
Two weeks after its record-breaking IPO, SpaceX isn't far from where it started.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX), which yesterday logged their lowest close since the company's June 12 public debut, finished in the green today. The stock eked out a less than 1% gain to end this week around $153, well off post-deal highs above $225 and only slightly above the $150 it started trading at two weeks ago. As of Friday's close, SpaceX's market value was around $2 trillion, after nearly hitting $3 trillion in the first few days of trading for the stock.
SpaceX remains substantially above the $135 at which it sold shares to the public. Still, its dramatic up-and-down run has become one of the market's central themes, with investors wondering what it says about the public's appetite for new stocks—and, particularly, in the field of artificial intelligence, one of SpaceX's businesses.
While some companies are believed to have considered delaying offerings because of concerns that demand will have been absorbed by a few massive deals, The New York Times yesterday said OpenAI was considering delaying an IPO in part because of SpaceX's volatility.
Meanwhile, investors continue to watch for news on the inclusion of SpaceX in high-profile indexes that would lead to buying by the funds that track those measures. The tech-focused Nasdaq 100 index is considered among the likeliest to next announce that it will add SpaceX. Five new companies, including Rocket Lab (RKLB), joined the index this week as part of a quarterly rebalancing.
This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.
News of the day for June 26, 2026
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on track to post losses for the week.Futures are pointing to a lower open for major indexes as chip and memory stocks come under renewed selling pressure; Apple shares are up slightly after a sell-off yesterday fueled by news the company had raised prices on several products amid a surge in memory costs; SpaceX shares are losing ground ahead of the bell after closing at a post-IPO low on Thursday; On Semiconductor shares are down sharply after the company announced a deal to buy fellow chipmaker Synaptics, whose stock is surging; and bitcoin remains under $60,000, trading at its lowest levels since late 2024. Here's what you need to know today.
Stocks Point Lower as Tech Slump ContinuesStock futures are lower ahead of the week's final trading session as tech shares appear poised for another volatile day. Futures tied to the tech-focused Nasdaq were down 1.1% recently, while futures linked to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. Weakness in chip and memory stocks is leading the move lower this morning: the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was down more than 3% recently, while the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) dropped 5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 1.9% and 4.4%, respectively, so far this week, putting them on track to snap two-week winning streaks. The Dow has gained 0.7% so far this week and looks set to extend its winning streak to three weeks.
WTI crude oil futures were down 3% this morning to just under $70 per barrel as investors keep tabs on how smoothly shipments are moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold futures were up 0.5% at $4,070 an ounce, after dipping below $4,000 for the first time since November earlier this week owing to concerns the Fed could hike interest rates. Bitcoin was at $59,500, trading at its lowest levels since late 2024 (more on that below). The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on consumer loans, held steady at 4.40%.
Apple Stock Inches Higher After Sell-OffApple (AAPL) shares are rising in premarket trading, as the stock looks to recover from yesterday's 6% drop, its worst one-day performance in more than a year. Shares tumbled yesterday after Apple unveiled price increases for several iPad and MacBook models as the company responds to the impact of soaring memory costs. Thursday's market action underscored the multifaceted impact of booming AI demand on companies, investors and consumers. Micron (MU) stock surged yesterday after the memory chip maker reported earnings that blew past Wall Street expectations, as demand for its critical hardware has soared. Meanwhile, rising prices for key AI components are leading to higher prices for products from the likes of Apple and Microsoft (MSFT), which announced its own price increases for Xbox consoles Thursday. Apple stock was up less than 1% in recent premarket trading, while shares of Microsoft were up 1.5% after falling more than 3% yesterday.
SpaceX Stock Remains Under Pressure After Hitting New Closing LowSpaceX (SPCX) shares are losing ground again this morning, trading around their lowest levels since their debut two weeks ago. For the second day in a row on Thursday, the stock hit a post-IPO closing low. Shares of Elon Musk's rocket, connectivity and AI company were down 1% at around $152 in recent premarket trading, just above the $150 price the stock started trading at on June 12. SpaceX has been added to index funds in recent days and interest from retail investors has stayed strong, but the stock has lost about a third of its value since hitting a record high above $225 early last week. With the recent share-price decline, Musk has lost his status as the world's first trillionaire.
On Semiconductor Agrees to Buy Synaptics In $7B DealOn Semiconductor (ON) shares are slumping after the company announced an all-stock deal to acquire Synaptics (SYNA). Onsemi said the deal, which is expected to close by the middle of next year, would give Synaptics shareholders 1.35 shares of its company for each share of Synaptics they own, valuing the company at about $7 billion. Onsemi said the deal would grow its portfolio to include chips designed for physical AI uses like robotics and self-driving cars, in addition to its current lineup of data center-focused chips. Onsemi shares were down 13% ahead of the opening bell, while Synaptics shares gained 5%.
Bitcoin Extends Slump, Remains Below $60,000Bitcoin remains under pressure this morning, trading at levels not seen since late 2024, as investors steer clear of risky assets. The cryptocurrency was at $59,500 recently, less than half the record high of around $124,000 reached last October. Bitcoin hit a low of $58,000 yesterday for the first time since before the election of President Trump spurred optimism among crypto enthusiasts. The recent slump is also weighing on several bitcoin-related stocks, most notably Strategy (MSTR), the largest single corporate holder of bitcoin. Strategy shares were down 1% in premarket trading after plunging 9% yesterday to their lowest level in more than two years. The stock is down 80% from its record high set last July.
The world's largest personal fortune is back to being denominated in billions with SpaceX trading about 30% off its post-IPO high.
SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is no longer a trillionaire.Yesterday's trillionaire is today's billionaire.
Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire after SpaceX's (SPCX) trading debut two weeks ago, with his stake in the company making up a sizable chunk of his overall net worth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Now that shares of the rocket company have come back down to earth—they recently traded around $152, roughly 30% off their post-IPO peak—Musk's paper wealth is a touch lower, too.
Billionaires' net worths, if they largely come from stocks, can fluctuate daily. That's why it's called paper wealth—those assets aren't counted like cash until they're sold.
As of yesterday's close, Musk's net worth clocked in at around $946 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. His shares in SpaceX were valued at about $737 billion, and his stake in Tesla (TSLA), at $155 billion, the data show. The SpaceX chief also owns stakes in startups Neuralink and The Boring Company, which make up a smaller piece of the overall pie, at a combined total of $6.75 billion, per Bloomberg.
Forbes' real-time calculation puts Musk's net worth at $941 billion as of Thursday afternoon.
This week's tech stock selloff has taken a bite out of the riches of other centibillionaires, including Oracle's (ORCL) Larry Ellison, whose net worth declined an estimated $8 billion yesterday. Google (GOOGL) co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin each saw their fortunes decline by over $1 billion yesterday, according to Bloomberg.
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