The market typically begins to experience greater volatility around this point in midterm election years. However, one encouraging development is the strength and breadth of current market momentum. The S&P 500 continues to show broad participation, with the highest percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day technical moving average since 2024. Currently, approximately 74% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average. Broad participation like this is generally a positive sign for the overall health of the market. The internal momentum of the S&P 500 is also strengthening. Nine of the 11 sectors are showing better momentum than they were on June 22, with only energy and utilities showing weaker momentum. Taken together, these indicators point to a market with strong underlying momentum. While volatility can increase as the midterm elections approach, the current breadth of participation provides an encouraging foundation. For now, momentum is our friend.
Inflation Continues to Evolve
The latest Consumer Price Index, or CPI, provided some encouraging news on the inflation front. July CPI increased 0.1%, in line with expectations, bringing the year-over-year increase to approximately 3.5%. The fact that inflation did not come in higher than expected is important. While inflation remains elevated, the latest reading does not suggest that prices are accelerating rapidly. For investors and consumers, however, the headline CPI number is only part of the story. Two important questions are what the Federal Reserve makes of the data and how inflation is affecting people in their everyday lives. The outlook for Federal Reserve policy has shifted as inflation data has evolved. At one point, markets were pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 16 meeting. Those odds rose to approximately 52% about a week ago but have since fallen to around 30%. Current expectations suggest that there may be one rate hike toward the end of the year, although there is still significant time for the outlook to change. Another useful measure is the “Common Man’s CPI,” a proprietary index from Strategas that focuses on essential expenses, including food, energy, shelter, insurance, and children’s clothing. These are expenses consumers generally cannot avoid or easily postpone. The Common Man’s CPI increased 3.5% year-over-year in July, down from 3.7% in June and 4.6% in May. That deceleration is encouraging, but the longer-term impact of inflation remains significant. Since the middle of 2020, the Common Man’s CPI has increased approximately 32%, while wages have risen about 28%. That gap helps explain why many consumers continue to feel the effects of inflation even as the rate of price increases slows. Prices may be rising more slowly, but wages have not yet fully caught up with the cumulative increase in the cost of essential goods and services. The trajectory of both inflation and wages will remain important as the year progresses.
The Fed’s Other Inflation Tool
The Federal Reserve has several tools available to influence the economy, but two of the most important are interest rates and the Fed’s balance sheet. Interest rates influence economic activity by making borrowing more or less expensive. The balance sheet works differently. When the Fed adds money to the financial system, it can support economic growth. When it reduces the amount of money in the system, it can help restrain growth and inflation. This second tool receives considerably less attention because its effects are less visible to consumers. Interest rates are relatively easy to understand because they directly affect mortgages, savings accounts, credit cards, and other forms of borrowing. The balance sheet is much less tangible. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve was expanding its balance sheet through a process referred to as monthly net reserve management. The terminology is intentional because quantitative easing, or QE, has developed a negative association following the significant monetary stimulus implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through net reserve management, the Fed injects capital into the banking system by purchasing Treasury securities from banks and replacing those securities with cash. Maintaining sufficient liquidity in the banking system is important, particularly during periods when large amounts of money are flowing out of the system for purposes such as tax payments. Beginning in December, the Fed was injecting approximately $40 billion per month into the banking system. That pace subsequently began to taper as leadership at the Federal Reserve changed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has written extensively about the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the importance of eventually reducing it. One concern with simultaneously raising interest rates while expanding the balance sheet is that the two policies can work against one another. Higher rates are intended to slow economic activity, while an expanding balance sheet can add liquidity to the financial system. Under the current approach, the Federal Reserve has moved toward stopping the expansion of its balance sheet before relying more heavily on interest-rate increases. August marks the first month since the beginning of the year in which the balance sheet is not expected to expand. The implications could be important for consumers and the broader economy. Consider a simple example. If a consumer earns $100 per week and spends $50 on gasoline and $50 on groceries, an increase in gasoline prices to $60 would leave only $40 available for groceries. Unless the consumer has additional money to spend, higher costs in one area can lead to reduced spending elsewhere. Economists refer to this as demand destruction. For broad-based inflation to persist across the economy, there generally needs to be enough money available to sustain demand even as prices rise. If the money supply increases, a consumer who previously had $100 to spend might instead have $110, allowing spending to continue despite higher prices. That dynamic has been evident in recent economic data. As gasoline prices increased, spending in areas such as leisure and hospitality and retail sales remained surprisingly resilient. Ordinarily, higher gasoline costs might be expected to reduce spending elsewhere, but that demand destruction has been limited. One possible explanation is the additional liquidity that has been present in the financial system. August provides an important test. For the first time this year, the economy is facing higher energy prices without the same additional expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. That creates an opportunity to observe whether demand begins to weaken in other areas of the economy. How that dynamic develops could have meaningful implications for economic growth, inflation, and ultimately the stock market.
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
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