Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fall Out of Virginia Elections. This is a special episode where we will go over the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, specifically the conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran, and see how it is going to impact the elections here in Virginia and across the country And I was waiting to do this episode because I wasn’t sure how long things would continue. The conflict has gone on for over two weeks now and doesn’t seem to be like there’s an end in sight. So I thought it was a good time to maybe talk about it.

00:31.29

Sam Shirazi

Talk about the impact both in Virginia and across the country. And the reason I thought it made sense to talk about it in this podcast is obviously the podcast is called Federal Fallout. And this is going to be an important federal fallout both in Virginia, across the country this year in the elections, the midterms, because really.

00:49.50

Sam Shirazi

So there’s both the impact domestically in terms of the economy, and then we’ll talk about some of the international implications of what’s going on. So I thought it would be an interesting time to do a little bit of a different podcast. Obviously, I’ve been focusing a lot on Virginia redistricting referendum.

01:04.27

Sam Shirazi

I’m not going to talk about it too much in this podcast because I don’t think it’s going to have a direct impact of what’s going on in Middle East. It’s going to have direct impact on the redistricting referendum. However, once the referendum is over, obviously, we’re going have the midterms here in Virginia and across the country. And I do think the conflict has gone on long enough now that there will be an impact that will be felt all the way even in November, even if the conflict conflict ends relatively soon because of some of the impacts to the national and global economy. So anyways, I thought it’d be interesting to do a little bit of a different podcast, something that’s not exactly hyper-focused on Virginia, but still back impacting Virginia. And I think just an interesting topic in general.

01:45.99

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, i try to stay in my lane, talk mainly about Virginia elections. However, i also know a decent amount about the Middle East for various reasons. One, I studied Middle East foreign in as a foreign affairs major at the University of Virginia. So I’ve spent some time studying the Middle East, specifically Iran. And, you know, full full disclosure, my family originally, we come from Iran. So I generally have a good sense of what’s going on in the country. i have kept an eye on things for a while. Don’t really talk about it a lot on this podcast because usually it’s not super relevant, but now obviously it is relevant and I thought people might be interested in my perspective.

02:24.87

Sam Shirazi

So I’ll try to keep it, you know, not focused on my specific experience, but more what the conflict in the Middle East is doing globally in terms of the economy, how that’s having an impact here domestically and what it might mean for the midterms this year in november So to begin with, I want to talk a little bit about just like the practical domestic impact of what’s going on in the Middle East. And obviously the big thing that’s been on the news domestically has been the impact on gas prices. Obviously, Middle East, Iran, countries that order it are big companies. oil producers.

03:03.68

Sam Shirazi

And the big thing that’s happened since the conflict began, Iran has tried to essentially close the Strait of Hormuz. So the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow part of water that connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the ocean. And obviously oil that’s coming from places like Iran, Iraq, Kuwait have to go through the Strait of Hormuz to reach global markets.

03:27.80

Sam Shirazi

And I think Aaron has pretty effectively essentially shut down shipping through the strait, and that is causing oil prices to go up a decent amount. And the price of oil has hit almost roughly $100 a hundred dollars barrel.

03:43.09

Sam Shirazi

And anytime oil hits that number, about $100 a barrel, I mean, that’s going to have significant significant impact both here and internationally. And just practically, I mean, everyone has seen at the the gas station that the price of oil, sorry, the price of gas has gone up and people are paying more. And obviously, Americans don’t like that. That was a big drag on President Biden when that happened. And it was probably a big reason why the Democrats lost the election in 2024, even though gas prices had come down from their highs in 2022. So 2022, Russia invades Ukraine. That causes another oil shock.

04:19.02

Sam Shirazi

The price of gas goes up. And it never really came that down to the pre-war levels until I think recently. And so even though the initial jump in prices in 2022 caused a huge shock, it still had an impact years later on.

04:37.71

Sam Shirazi

And The thing is, it’s not just gas. I mean, most Americans have cars that use gas, and so they feel that when they’re filling up the pump. But if you notice, if you look, the price of diesel has also gone up a lot. And diesel, while most of us don’t buy diesel, it’s important for shipping. So think a lot of things run on diesel, like most big trucks that transport goods runs on diesel trains, a lot of things run on diesel. And so when the price of diesel goes up, that means that the price of transporting a lot of goods or almost every single good will go up a lot. And that was one of the things we saw in 2022. mean, I think there’s been, there was a lot of talk about, oh, inflation was high when, when Biden was president. And that’s true. But

05:20.49

Sam Shirazi

Part of the reason for that and a big part of it was because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that caused an oil shock that caused the price of gas to go up. It also caused the price of diesel to go up. And so once the price of diesel goes up, the price of almost everything else starts going up. And I do think the longer this goes on in the Middle East, the longer that there’s a risk that there will be inflation, inflationary shocks.

05:41.71

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, the thing with inflation, it usually takes a little bit of time until we really see it, especially in the formal data in terms of the inflation rate. And so we saw that in 2022.

05:52.52

Sam Shirazi

There was kind of initial jump in prices. And then eventually that kind of got reflected throughout the economy. And I do think that there is going to be something similar happening in the next couple weeks, potentially a couple of months.

06:05.74

Sam Shirazi

And even if the war ended tomorrow, I mean, these shocks are still going to be felt in the system. Obviously, the sooner it ends, the less likely it’s going to have as big of impact. But I do think already we’re starting to see the immediate impact with the gas prices. And I do think next few weeks there’ll be a broader impact on on other goods throughout the economy.

06:25.58

Sam Shirazi

So you know I talked about this previously in my podcast. Most people, they’re most the the most important issue is the economy. People had been struggling before the conflict had began. The affordability crisis has been going on for several years.

06:39.07

Sam Shirazi

And that was one of the big reasons that Donald Trump got elected in 2024. And I think people expected him to fix that issue. And I think a lot of people have felt that that had not gotten better.

06:49.31

Sam Shirazi

That was one of the big reasons. Now, Governor Spanberger got a big win in 2025. She focused a lot on the affordability issue because people had a sense that things were not getting better, even though the Republicans had come in and and, you know, there have been a lot of different policies that necessarily didn’t necessarily make things better in terms of affordability, such as the tariffs.

07:10.01

Sam Shirazi

And I do think now with this conflict, there is going to be another round of potential rises and costs for the American people. And I think that’s obviously not going to be great for the Republicans if that happens and they will potentially be facing an even harder November where where they were already facing a hard November. I think it’s going to make their lives that much harder, specifically because, you know, if inflation at least starts rising again, probably won’t get up to like the 10 percent that it got under Biden. But even if it goes up to four or five percent, I mean, I think you draw a clear line where you say, you know, President Trump’s decision to go to war in the Middle East, that has

07:49.43

Sam Shirazi

direct impact on the economy and and the Democrats will certainly make that argument that his decision to go to war has increased the cost to the American people. So even if most people are not spending all day you know focusing on what’s going on in the Middle East and what’s going on with the Strait of Hormuz, we are all going to feel the impact when we go to the gas station and eventually when we start buying things at the grocery store because of this conflict that is so far away.

08:16.96

Sam Shirazi

Now, I also wanted to talk a little bit about of the political implications in terms of President Trump’s decision to start this war, because yeah obviously there are are a few catchphrases President Trump had during his campaigns. Probably his most famous one is make America great again. But I do think one that is also pretty famous is America first. And I think that was Originally, his main foreign policy ideology was American first. I think it’s a pretty you know vague statement. And you know people had a sense, OK, that means focus on America.

08:49.71

Sam Shirazi

But what did it actually mean in terms of foreign policy? And we saw during his second term, particularly after what happened in Venezuela, when the president when President Trump ordered American troops to go and seize the president of Venezuela and bring him to the U.S. for trial,

09:07.12

Sam Shirazi

There was a little bit clearer articulation of what America First meant, at least in in terms of kind of an ideal ideology that was somewhat consistent. and And basically what that meant was, according to this kind of idea of America First, the idea was...

09:23.40

Sam Shirazi

America was going to move away from this post-World War II idea that it’s going to be the policeman of the world, that it will kind of ensure this global liberal you know free trade order that wasn’t really what America should be doing, shouldn’t be you know subsidizing all these countries’ defenses like in Europe.

09:41.97

Sam Shirazi

What America was going to do is look out for its own interests. So and specifically what that meant is America was going to look out for the Western Hemisphere because in President Trump’s view, America is the leading power in the Western Hemisphere. And that is kind of its sphere of influence. And so it’s in America’s interest to protect itself and to protect its interests in the Western Hemisphere. And all these other things going on in the rest of the world really aren’t America’s problems.

10:05.71

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, you may disagree or agree with that, but I think at the end of the day, it was somewhat consistent or at least somewhat coherent. And so while Venezuela, what President Trump did was certainly intervention overseas, he could kind of defend it as saying, like, look, we’re looking out for what’s going on in our backyard. And that’s why I went into Venezuela. And I think President Trump had been critical, obviously, of various foreign entanglements the United States has gotten itself into.

10:33.46

Sam Shirazi

And I think his worldview is, for example, something like the war in Ukraine. It’s not really our problem. You know, Eastern Europe, maybe that’s more of Russia’s sphere of influence. Let the Europeans deal with it. You know, the EU, their sphere of influence is Western Europe and Central Europe.

10:48.52

Sam Shirazi

If they have a problem with Russia, they should deal with Ukraine. It’s not really America’s problem. you know China, their sphere of influence could be maybe East east Asia, India will have a sphere of influence in South Asia.

11:02.74

Sam Shirazi

And then the Middle East, it had seemed that maybe he was basically arguing you know Israel and the Gulf states, you know they can have a sphere of influence in the Middle East and the Middle East isn’t really America’s problem anymore. and That seemed to be kind of the America fair first ideology.

11:18.96

Sam Shirazi

And so I think a lot of people were puzzled when President Trump decided to start this war with Iran, because it in some ways it kind of goes totally against that. You know, President Trump in 2016. One of the reasons he got the Republican nomination is he was one of the only Republicans to basically say the Iraq war was a mistake. He wanted to the US out of the Middle East. I think that’s what a lot of people voted for him.

11:38.93

Sam Shirazi

They believed in this idea that the US had spent all this time and money and energy in the Middle East and was not paying attention enough to what was going on in America.

11:49.29

Sam Shirazi

And so I think it was a kind of an odd decision now that President Trump decided to launch launch this you know relatively large scale war with Iran because it kind of goes against all that. you know It’s in the Middle East, very far from America.

12:02.46

Sam Shirazi

It’s you know in an area where you have other strong states like Israel, Saudi Arabia, that you know even if Iran really is a problem, those states could maybe deal with it and it’s not really America’s issue anymore.

12:15.92

Sam Shirazi

And so I guess the question now becomes, you know why did President Trump decide to to do this at this point? i mean, I think my sense was after what happened in Venezuela, when the US went in and took the Venezuelan president Maduro, they took him out and they were able to work with his vice president and set up, while not a totally different regime, certainly a more favorable government towards the United States. I think President Trump felt really good after that.

12:41.53

Sam Shirazi

And you know who knows what some of his advisors were telling him But he felt that maybe he could do something similar in Iran. Obviously, the United States joined Israel in that conflict. Israel was able to kill the Supreme Leader or the former Supreme Leader, Khamenei.

12:57.58

Sam Shirazi

And maybe President Trump had a sense of, well, we can bring someone else who might be more reasonable into power in Iran, and then that will solve a foreign policy crisis in the Middle East. I think it’s not exactly played out that way, and we can kind of talk about why. But I think that’s part of the the challenge that is is happening right now, because perhaps President Trump thought that once Khamenei was out of the way, there would be a better government in Iran. I think most people who understand Iran knows that that was unlikely to happen. i think Iran is very different than Venezuela, for example. And it didn’t really make sense that you could kind of come in overthrow just the supreme leader, and all of a sudden the government will get a lot better.

13:42.01

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, just talk a little bit about Iran for for a moment. i mean, I do think a lot of the Iranian people have turned against the government generally over the past few years because it is a very repressive government.

13:56.63

Sam Shirazi

The economy has not been doing well. So I do think there were a lot of Iranians who were against the regime. I think the challenge is the regime is very entrenched, it’s very powerful, and it’s just hard to overthrow through something with like airstrikes. And I do think once Khamenei was taken out, there wasn’t really...

14:16.77

Sam Shirazi

going to be someone else who could come in and be a moderate in that situation. Obviously, the country had just started, had just been bombed. Even in Venezuela, the United States didn’t kill Maduro. They were able to seize him take him to the United States, and are going to put him on trial. You know, killing another country’s leader, it’s going to be pretty hard for the other leaders in that country to all of a sudden say, okay, we’re actually going to work with you now once you killed our leader. I think the natural response from the Iranian regime is that they’re going to start attacking the Middle East. And a lot of people are kind of surprised, I think, that they started attacking not just Israel, but countries like Qatar and Kuwait and Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. But I think from the Iranian regime standpoint, their mindset is that they are going to cause as much trouble as possible. They are going to hurt the economies of those countries. They are obviously trying to hurt

15:10.62

Sam Shirazi

the global economy with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. And so I think from their perspective, their idea their idea of fighting this war is they know they’re not going to win militarily because Israel the United States has has a much stronger military, but they’re going to cause a lot of economic harm.

15:28.12

Sam Shirazi

And the pain that that causes will cause primarily the United States to eventually just stop and not no longer want to fight the war. Now, that hasn’t happened yet, but we’ll see where it goes. And I do think From their perspective, a lot of the Gulf states are getting nervous because places like Dubai and Doha, you know, in Qatar, they their economy is now geared more towards tourism, more towards banking, being kind of a center of commerce. And I think the conflict has really hurt that image and has hurt their ability to do that. And so certainly I think behind the scenes, they are trying to get this conflict resolved. It seems like Israel, on the other hand, because they’re more far removed from much of the consequences, wants to kind of see this through and and try to end the conflict. And ideally, from their perspective, end the regime, even though that seems pretty difficult to accomplish.

16:18.22

Sam Shirazi

So the question becomes, you know, what is the United States going to do? How long will President Trump continue this conflict? Most people seem to have thought that he would eventually just say, know,

16:29.86

Sam Shirazi

essentially declare victory. you know We took out their leader and the regime is weaker. And so we won. Most people still think that’s going to be the end game. But I think the markets are starting to realize this is going to drag out longer. And I think that’s why the cost of oil has started to go up more and more. And I think at the end of the day,

16:48.18

Sam Shirazi

You know, that there’s this idea that in an ideal world, the Iranian people would rise up, overthrow the regime. I think the challenge with that is if you put yourself in the place of the average Iranian, you know, their country is being bombed. The U.S. s and Israeli military are telling civilians to be careful. The regime has very explicitly said that, you know, anyone who is caught, you know, protesting, they will just execute them essentially because it’s a time of war and they’ve essentially declared martial law. And even before the war, if you were caught protesting, you might be killed. So the idea that people in this environment are going to be willing to go out and protest, I think is unlikely. And a lot of Iranians are just you know hunkering down, trying to survive. And so I think it’s a little bit unrealistic to think that the regime would be overthrown in this environment. And so we’re kind of left in this situation where

17:40.64

Sam Shirazi

The regime domestically, I think, feels like it isn’t under huge pressure. Its military is being battered, but it still has these asymmetric abilities to strike back with drones and missiles.

18:16.46

Sam Shirazi

Anyway, so we’re kind of reaching a point where... the longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the bigger the impact to the global economy, the more difficult it will be for things to get back to normal. And I think the Iranian regime knows that, and they’re trying to put the pressure, especially on the United States,

18:34.83

Sam Shirazi

to eventually just wrap this up. and And they’re essentially just trying to wait out Trump. And and their their sense is, oh, he’s just going to get bored of this. He’s going to move on. And you know that might be the case. However, I do think President Trump is also the type of person who doesn’t like it when he doesn’t win and he doesn’t get what he really wants.

18:53.29

Sam Shirazi

And so there’s also a possibility that he will just continue to do this. And the longer it goes on, the bigger the impact both to the global and American economy.

19:03.84

Sam Shirazi

So kind of tying this all to back to kind of the midterms and what it means, I mean, I think at the end of the day, this is just another thing that is probably going to help the Democrats this November for various reasons. One, we’ve talked about the economy.

19:18.69

Sam Shirazi

Two, we’ve talked about this idea that people don’t want the United States to be in another war in the Middle East. I think most Americans have been exhausted after what’s been going on. with Afghanistan and Iraq, that they don’t want another you know forever war.

19:33.84

Sam Shirazi

And there’s also just kind of a sense that the war is not necessarily going the way that we had hoped that it would be quick and the regime would fall and there’d be a new, better government in Iran. And I think that hasn’t happened and there’s not any indication that’s going to happen anytime soon. So for those reasons, I think it’s generally going to hurt the Republicans in November.

19:55.66

Sam Shirazi

Now, having said that, it really depends when it ends. I think if it ends, you know, late March, April timeframe, perhaps by November things have basically moved on. Not that many people remember it. There’s been an impact to the economy, but the economy has been able to basically take it. And at the end of the day, it’s not going to be a huge factor in November. I think that’s one possibility. And the other possibility is, especially if it continues, I do think there’s this risk that the war will, you know, continue to drag the Republicans down. And, you know, you know I think,

20:29.68

Sam Shirazi

when you’re thinking about midterms, you’re always looking at comparators. And I think obviously the comparator for Trump is the 2018 midterm because that’s when Trump was last in office. But I do think perhaps there’s another comparator, which is 2006. Now, the economy was doing pretty well.

20:46.97

Sam Shirazi

2006, the economy wasn’t doing that great. it was you know We were starting to see the first signs of what would eventually become the Great Recession. And obviously, 2006 was the height of the Iraq War. And I think both those things really hurt the Republican Party.

21:01.13

Sam Shirazi

It allowed the Democrats to have a comeback. Democrats were able to win both the House and Senate in 2006. And so in some ways, the blue wave in 2006 was actually bigger than the blue wave in 2018. because I think it was more of a national blue wave. We saw it blow both in blue states and red states. And I do think that that the longer this war goes on, the bigger the impact of the economy. I do think we could be entering more of a 2006 type environment as opposed to maybe a 2018 type environment, because i I just think at some point,

21:32.36

Sam Shirazi

The war, I think the problem the Republicans have is both the practical impact of the war in terms of the cost of the economy, and then also the kind of political or ideological divisions is creating in the MAGA movement, if you want to say that, in terms of some of some parts of the movement, particularly the more pro-Israel sides of the movement, support the war. But then you have people on the other side who are more on the America first side of things who think that this is not really in America’s interest. And so you’re you’re seeing how these ideological divisions within the Republican Party, and then you’re seeing the economic impact of the war here domestically.

22:10.06

Sam Shirazi

And I guess the last thing I’ll leave you with is is maybe more of a Iranian perspective or Iranian-American perspective, because I think that is often lost in this type of conflict when there’s obviously focus on so much going on, both in terms of the domestic economy, world economy, Strait of Hormuz, gas blockage, you know all these things that you hear about, but you don’t necessarily hear about the perspective of Iranians both in Iran and around the world. And you know i I think the thing that I hear over and over again is a lot of mixed feelings. I think a lot of Iranians do not like the regime. i think that’s an understatement.

22:47.32

Sam Shirazi

Certainly the Iranians that left Iran, they did so because they did not like the regime. They did not support the regime. Some of those people outside of Iran are some of the biggest supporters of the war because they feel like this is the only way to get rid of rid of the regime.

23:01.82

Sam Shirazi

A lot of Iranians outside of Iran, however, also oppose the war because they feel that this is not the right way to get rid of the regime. And if anything, it’s going to strength strengthen the regime, at least domestically.

23:14.46

Sam Shirazi

So I think there’s a lot of mixed feelings, conflicting feelings. And then I think people in Iran... probably are feeling the same thing. Some of them were probably happy when they heard that the Supreme Leader was killed.

23:26.01

Sam Shirazi

And they were they were hopeful that maybe this could lead to a different direction for Iran. But I think one thing that I have felt... Having studied the Iranian regime for a long time, is it is more versatile and more adaptive than I think people give it credit for.

23:44.76

Sam Shirazi

I think there’s an image of it as some sort of backward Islamic theology theocracy, and obviously it has those components, but at the end of the day, it is also...

23:55.55

Sam Shirazi

a very strong repressive state and it has been able to maintain power for 45 years with large portions of the population not supporting it. And I think part of the reason it’s done that is it has created ways to survive and has both the military and political strength to survive a lot of internal uprisings and a lot of pressure from the outside in terms of sanctions. This has been the first time it has really faced significant military pressure from the outside since the Iran-Iraq war when Saddam Hussein invaded the country and launched an eight-year war that was, and he was unable to defeat the regime

24:42.36

Sam Shirazi

Ultimately, I think it’s really important in these situations to be realistic. As much as I don’t like the regime and I wish that it would change as much as a lot of Iranians don’t like the regime, as much as obviously many people in the region and around the world don’t like the regime, I think you have to be realistic, understand the nature of the regime, understand how it’s able to survive, how it is able to adapt and do things that make life difficult for everyone. And so ultimately,

25:08.100

Sam Shirazi

I guess what I’m getting at is it’s important to be realistic in this situation and not necessarily just wish away the regime or wish that will fall or wish that there will be regime change. Anything is certainly possible. It’s an unpredictable situation. I certainly hope for the best in terms of a better direction for the Iranian people so that they could live in freedom and democracy. That’s my hope. That’s my hope.

25:32.71

Sam Shirazi

for a long time. And i hope it comes true one day. But I am also realistic that I’m not sure this sort of conflict is the environment that will cause that to happen. And so we’ll just have to keep an eye on it. Ultimately, it is going to have an impact in Iran, in the region, around the world, in America, certainly going to have an impact on the Virginia elections.

25:55.81

Sam Shirazi

on the midterms generally this November. So that’s why I thought I’d do this episode. And yeah, I mean, i’m I’m curious to see how long this goes on. I may do some more specials on Iran and give some more information about the conflict. This was kind of my beginning episode to give people a little bit of better sense of what was going on. If it continues, I will do more episodes.

26:17.38

Sam Shirazi

I still obviously want to cover Virginia elections, want to cover the redistricting referendum, certainly very important. But I thought I’d do a little bit of a different thing this episode and talk about what’s going on in the Middle East.

26:29.19

Sam Shirazi

so this keep paying attention. I think I will do my best to cover it all. Federal fallout, I’ve enjoyed doing it. i think sometimes you do have to cover the actual federal fallout about what’s going on because this has obviously been driven by a decision that President Trump did at the federal level.

26:45.48

Sam Shirazi

And I will continue to cover it. And I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. So this has been Federal Fallout and I’ll join you next time.

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