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Could a buried stockpile of uranium decide the outcome of the war with Iran?

Dan is joined by Israeli journalist Amit Segal and military historian Fred Kagan to unpack reports that roughly 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% may still be recoverable from a bombed Iranian nuclear site. They discuss why that level of enrichment matters, what it would take for U.S. or Israeli forces to extract the material, and why the race to secure it could shape the next phase of the war. The conversation also explores the broader campaign against the Iranian regime, the possibility of regime change, renewed Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel, and what Iran might look like if the current leadership collapses.

In this episode:

01:50 – Hezbollah’s renewed attacks on northern Israel

04:05 – The broader military campaign against Iran’s regime infrastructure

08:20 – The race to secure Iran’s buried 60% enriched uranium

12:15 – Why 60% enrichment puts Iran close to nuclear weapons capability

16:40 – What it would take for U.S. or Israeli forces to extract the material

23:30 – Netanyahu’s “surprises” and the strategy to destabilize the regime

28:55 – The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei and what it means for the regime

35:10 – Could regime change in Iran trigger a civil war?

Learn more about AEI’s Critical Threats Project. 

Learn more about the Institute for the Study of War.

More Ark Media:

Credits: Ilan Benatar, Adaam James Levin-Areddy, Brittany Cohen, Ava Weiner, Martin Huergo, Mariangeles Burgos, and Patricio Spadavecchia, Yuval Semo