April 23, 2023

ISMS 21: CPI Collapsing Across the Globe

19 minutes

Will the global CPI slowdown continue?Global MarketsGlobal CPI is falling fast in both DM and EMs

Economies across the world have a GDP of about US$90trn and an average CPI of 6.2%
DM CPI was 5.7%
EM CPI was 6.9%

World CPI was 6.2%, down 0.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts

DM CPI was 5.7%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppt
It has moved from being in line with World CPI last year; to the current 0.5ppt discount
EM CPI was 6.9%, which is about flat vs. one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppt
It has moved from being in line with the World CPI last year; to the current 0.7ppt premium

Developed RegionsDM Americas CPI is falling fast, DM Europe is sliding, DM Asia is on a steady rise

DM Americas is the largest, with US$25trn of GDP and 4.9% CPI
DM Europe has US$14.9trn GDP and 7.1% CPI
DM Pacific has US$7.6trn GPD and 4.7% CPI

DM Americas CPI is falling fast, DM Europe is sliding, DM Asia is on a steady rise

DM Americas CPI was 4.9%, down 3.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1ppts.
It has moved from a 1.7ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.3ppts discount
DM Europe CPI was 7.1%, up 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.1ppts.
It has moved from a 0.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 0.9ppts premium
DM Pacific CPI was 4.7%, up 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts.
It has moved from a 4.4ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 1.5ppts discount

Emerging RegionsEM Europe and Asia CPI falling; Middle East & Africa, and Frontier markets are still on fire

EM Americas had a small GDP of US$3.8trn and CPI of 7%
EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$25.7trn and 1.9% CPI
EM Europe had a small US$3.9trn GDP and a massive 17.7% CPI
Emerging Middle East & Africa had a tiny US$1.7trn GDP and a high 11.5% CPI
Frontier markets had a US$2.9trn GDP and an extremely high 31.2% CPI

EM Europe and Asia CPI falling; Middle East & Africa, and Frontier markets are still on fire

EM Americas CPI was 7%, down 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts.
It has moved from a 2.6ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 0.7ppts premium
EM Asia CPI was 1.9%, down 0.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4ppts.
It has moved from a 4.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 4.3ppts discount
EM Europe CPI was 17.7%, down 6.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 5ppts.
It has moved from a 17.1ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 11.4ppts premium
EM ME&A CPI was 11.5%, up 6.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts.
It has moved from a 1.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 5.3ppts premium
Frontier CPI was 31.2%, up 14.7ppts from 1yr ago; MoM up 0.3ppts
It has moved from a 9.9ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 25ppts premium. This region was up YoY and MoM

Developed CountriesOnly US CPI fell YoY; all top 5 DM countries, except Japan, fell MoM; UK CPI is double the US

Top five DM countries
US GDP was US$23trn, CPI of 5.0%
Japan US$4.9trn and 3.9% CPI
Germany US$4.2trn and 7.5% CPI
UK: US$3.2trn, 10.2%
France: US$2.9trn/5.8%
USA CPI was 5%, down 3.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1ppts.
It has moved from a 1.8ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.2ppts discount
Japan CPI was 3.9%, up 2.7ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6ppts.
It has moved from a 5.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 2.3ppts discount
Germany CPI was 7.5%, up 1.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.3ppts.
It has moved from a 1.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 1.3ppts premium
UK CPI was 10.2%, up 3.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4ppts.
It has moved from a 0.4ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 4ppts premium
France CPI was 5.8%, up 1.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6ppts.
It has moved from a 2.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 0.4ppts discount

Emerging CountriesBig CPI fall in Russia, China, and India; more minor falls in Korea and Brazil

China: US$17.5trn/0.6%
India: US$3.2trn/5.6%
Korea: US$1.8trn/4.3%
Russia: US$1.8trn/3.6%
Brazil: US$1.6trn/4.7%
China CPI was 0.6%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.3ppts.
It has moved from a 5.2ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 5.6ppts discount
India CPI was 5.6%, down 1.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts.
It has moved from a 0.4ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 0.6ppts discount
Korea CPI was 4.3%, up 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6ppts.
It has moved from a 2.6ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 2ppts discount
Russia CPI was 3.6%, down 12.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 7.5ppts.
It has moved from a 9.8ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 2.7ppts discount
Brazil CPI was 4.7%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9ppts.
It has moved from a 4.5ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.6ppts discount

Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs

Andrew’s books

How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
My Worst Investment Ever
9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

Valuation Master Class
The Become a Better Investor Community
How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

astotz.com
LinkedIn
Facebook
Instagram
Twitter
YouTube
My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

...more

View all episodes

By Andrew Stotz

4.9

6262 ratings