In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 39: Enough.

LEARNING: More wealth does not give you more happiness.

 

“Prudent investors don’t take more risk than they have the ability, willingness, or need to take. If you’ve already won the game, why are you still playing?”Larry Swedroe

 

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.

Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 39: Enough.

Chapter 39: Enough

In Chapter 39, Larry discusses the importance of knowing that you have “enough,” a concept that, once understood, can enlighten and guide your financial decisions.

In 2009, Larry conducted an investment seminar for the Tiger 21 Group, America’s most exclusive wealth management group. One of the issues the group asked him to address was: How do the wealthy think about risk, and how should they approach it? Larry’s answer exposed a terrifying paradox.

More wealth will not make you happier

According to Larry, self-made wealth follows a predictable script. Fortunes are built through extreme risk-taking: betting everything on one business, ignoring diversification, and trusting instinct over analysis. This breeds a dangerous confidence—the kind that whispers, “If I did it once, I can do it again.”

He explains that the utility of the wealth curve resembles an elephant from the side. It goes up quickly because when you have nothing, even a little extra money can significantly improve your life. If you’re homeless and someone gives you $25 to take a shower, get a meal, and stuff, that will make you much better off. But once you get to some level of net worth, like $2 million or $3 million, or whatever the number is for you, the extra wealth is better than less.

However, as you gain more wealth, your incremental level of happiness—just like the elephant’s back— flattens out. There’s virtually little or no improvement in your state of well-being and happiness.

The entrepreneur’s invisible trap

Larry stresses that wealth building and wealth preservation demand opposite mindsets. Those with the greatest ability to take risks (resources to absorb losses) and willingness (confidence from past wins) often overlook the third critical factor: need. And therein lies the trap.

The wealthiest individuals have a near-zero need for further risk. Yet, they continually strive for more and take on significant risks that may not ultimately lead to an enhanced level of happiness. In reality, they do not need to take such a substantial risk. They can dial down the risk in their portfolio and be much happier, sleep better, not worry about markets, and enjoy their life.

When $13 million evaporates

Larry recounts meeting a couple in 2003. Three years earlier, their portfolio stood at $13 million, with a heavy concentration in tech stocks. By 2003? $3 million. An 80% collapse.

“Would doubling to $26 million have changed your lives?” Larry asked.

“No,” they admitted.

“Then why risk everything for gains that wouldn’t matter?”

Their fatal error? Never defining their “enough.” When desires—a larger yacht, a vineyard, or “legacy” projects—morph into perceived needs, they artificially inflate risk tolerance. This ignites a destructive cycle: greater “needs” demand riskier bets, which invite catastrophic losses.

The science of “enough”

Larry points to research that reshapes wealth psychology: Beyond $75,000 per year (adjusted for inflation), happiness plateaus. After $10 million, diminishing returns accelerate violently. The billionaire’s third home brings no more joy than a latte at the bookstore.

This isn’t a theory. Psychologists confirm that true contentment comes from non-tradable assets. These are the experiences and relationships that money can’t buy. A walk in the park with your partner. Reading to grandchildren. The freedom to control your time. These cost little yet yield everything. A $100 bottle of wine? It can’t compete with a $10 one shared with friends.

Breaking the cycle

Larry prescribes four antidotes for Tiger 21’s members:

• First, ask: “If I lost 80% tomorrow, would my core lifestyle survive? Would my relationships?” If the answer chills you, you’re over-risked.
• Second, map your marginal utility of wealth. Draw a curve tracking wealth against life satisfaction. Where does the line flatten? That’s your “enough.” For most, it’s far lower than imagined.
• Third, build a “fortress portfolio.” Replace concentrated bets with global diversification. Swap illiquid moonshots for Treasury bonds and index funds. Protect capital like a museum guards its masterpieces.
• Fourth, demote desires. Luxury items must never masquerade as needs. That vineyard? A want—funded only if cash flows cover it without gambling capital.

The unbreakable wealth paradox

Larry concludes by emphasizing that building wealth requires courage. Preserving it requires the courage to say: “No more.” The difference between the rich and the ruined isn’t intelligence—it’s knowing when you have enough.

Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform

• Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
• Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
• Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
• Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
• Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
• Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
• Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
• Enrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market Return
• Enrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion

Part II: Strategic Portfolio Decisions

• Enrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’t
• Enrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of Skill
• Enrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not Play
• Enrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future Performance
• Enrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon
• Enrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You Believe
• Enrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not Inevitable
• Enrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your Investments
• Enrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black Swans
• Enrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be Safe
• Enrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth Management

Part III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

• Enrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think Again
• Enrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth Taking
• Enrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment Decisions
• Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
• Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared
• Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?
• Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities
• Enrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing Biases
• Enrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend Stocks
• Enrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind Spot

Part IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and Investing

• Enrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s Errand
• Enrich Your Future 33: The Market Doesn’t Care How Smart You Are
• Enrich Your Future 34: Embrace the Bear: Why Market Crashes Are Your Silent Ally
• Enrich Your Future 35: Market Gurus Are Just Expensive Entertainers
• Enrich Your Future 36: The Madness of Crowded Trades
• Enrich Your Future 37 & 38: The Calendar Is a Crook & Hot Funds Are a Trap

About Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.

Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Larry Swedroe

• LinkedIn
• X
• Website
• Books

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram

BIO: Blair LaCorte is a dynamic executive with experience across entertainment, aviation, AI, aerospace, consulting, and more.

STORY: Blair shares three catastrophic investment failures and the life-altering lessons that rewired his approach to wealth.

LEARNING: Chase knowledge, not hype, and don’t let greed hijack logic. Invest with friends only if you’re willing to lose both.

 

“The worst investment that you can make is to put your time into something that you don’t enjoy or that you know is not going to work out.”Blair LaCorte

 

Guest profile

Blair LaCorte is a dynamic executive with experience across entertainment, aviation, AI, aerospace, consulting, and more. He has held CEO roles at companies such as PRG, XOJET, and Autodesk, and led startups to successful IPOs. Currently, he’s training as an astronaut for Virgin Galactic and is Vice Chairman at the Buck Institute.

Worst investment ever

Fresh out of college at 22, Blair met a smooth-talking investor who flaunted his “lifetime monthly checks” from an oil well. Blinded by dollar signs and zero industry knowledge, he poured his savings into a single well.

Blair ignored basic due diligence, diversification, and warnings about low-quality reserves. It was all about greed. He had seen someone make money where they got paid every month for the rest of their life, as long as the well lasted.

The greed kept him in and kept him investing in the well. At the end of the day, the oil was of below-average quality and was not as much as they thought it would be. Blair’s ignorance caused him a 100% loss. The well underperformed, and his greed trapped him in a sinking ship. Blair even commissioned a plaque to memorialize his shame—a daily reminder that “easy money” is a predator in disguise.

Burning $200k and a friendship

After Blair’s first IPO success in 1999, his roommate pitched him on Coffee.com—a visionary play on single-origin beans (decades before it became trendy). Blair invested early, then panicked as losses mounted. When the roommate begged for more capital, he refused because he did not think it would succeed, but guilt kept him from cutting ties.

After a while, the startup imploded. Worse? Blair’s friend never spoke to him again. He learned the hard truth from this unwise investment: mixing money with friendship is financial suicide.

The $59.50 ego tax

At the peak of the dot-com boom, Blair had just scored a top-tier IPO. His broker urgently called and advised him to sell immediately at $59.50 as he believed the boom would not last. But pride convinced him that the broker was just chasing commissions.

Blair held stubbornly as the stock bled out to $2. He lost $570,000 in vaporized gains. Blair’s ego had bet against reality, and reality won.

Lessons learned

• Chase knowledge, not hype, and don’t let greed hijack logic. If you don’t understand how the money is made, you’re the exit strategy for someone else.
• Friends + money = atomic risk. Invest with friends only if you’re willing to lose both on the same day.
• Pride is the silent portfolio killer. The market doesn’t care about your ego, and exit signals don’t negotiate.
• Your time is your ultimate currency. Grinding your years into a dying venture to ‘prove a point’ is the costliest investment of all.

Andrew’s takeaways

• Macro trumps micro. Brilliant ideas fail if they’re too early or too late. Always ask: “Is the world ready for this?”
• Preserve capital like your life depends on it. A young you can risk time; an older you must protect capital.
• Passive high-risk bets (like an oil well) are gambling. Invest where you can influence outcomes.

Actionable advice

When temptation knocks:

• Demand the “Why You?” clause. If a “sure thing” lands in your lap, ask: Why me? Why now? What do they know that I don’t?
• Map the macro weather by using tools like Google Trends, industry reports, and Fed data to pressure-test timing.
• Cap the bleeding by allocating a max of 5% of net worth to high-risk plays. Set automatic exit triggers (e.g., “Sell if -25%”).
• Sign contracts, define failure clauses, and never mix personal loans with equity, especially if investing with pals.

Blair’s recommendations

Blair recommends checking out PPE Mastermind Talks (available for free at PPEmastermind.com) to learn business tactics from battle-tested CEOs. He also recommends reading biographies, examining companies’ histories, and watching documentaries or listening to speakers that prompt you to think differently about things, to accelerate your ability to learn.

No.1 goal for the next 12 months

Blair’s goal for the next 12 months is radical self-care. Blair wants to do things for himself without feeling guilty.

Parting words

 

“Go out there and have fun, it’s a privilege. Approximately 50% of the world’s population lives on a subsistence level. Another 25% don’t get to make the decisions. If you have the financial or mental capability to try new things, you’re blessed. So go out there and have some fun.”Blair LaCorte

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Blair LaCorte

• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Website

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Threads
• X
• YouTube
• My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 37: Sell in May and Go Away: Financial Astrology and Chapter 38: Chasing Spectacular Fund Performance.

LEARNING: Calendars don’t drive returns. Winners ignore hot funds.

 

“For you to believe in a strategy, there should be some economically logical reason for it to persist, so you can be confident it isn’t just some random outcome.”Larry Swedroe

 

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.

Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 37: Sell in May and Go Away: Financial Astrology and Chapter 38: Chasing Spectacular Fund Performance.

Chapter 37: Sell in May and Go Away: Financial Astrology

In chapter 37, Larry explains why the idea of selling stocks in May and switching to cash, then buying back in November, is not a sound strategy.

What financial advisers insist on repeating, in Larry’s view, is: “Sell in May, go to cash, and reinvest in November.” It makes sense and is even logical. And, as the adage has it, numbers don’t lie. Figures, backed by reliable data, show that stocks gain more from November through April (a 5.7% average premium) than from May through October (a 2.6% average premium). So why not time the market?

Busting the myth

Larry dismantles this advice, revealing that the ‘Sell in May’ strategy, despite its apparent logic, is a myth. He points out that stocks still outperform cash even during the May to October period, with stocks beating T-bills by 2.6% annually.

Selling stocks prematurely leads to missed gains, and the strategy of switching investments underperforms a simple buy-and-hold approach. In fact, a ‘Sell in May’ strategy yielded an average annual return of 8.3% from 1926 to 2023, while simply holding the S&P 500 returned 10.2%—a significant 1.9% yearly gap.

Larry adds that Taxes and fees make the strategy worse. Trading converts long-term gains (lower tax) into short-term gains (higher tax). Transaction costs always pile up.

Additionally, this strategy is rarely effective. Before 2022, the last “win” was 2011. A single outlier (2022’s bear market) does not make a strategy worthwhile.

The fatal flaw

According to Larry, one of the fundamental rules of finance is that expected return and risk are positively correlated. So if stocks actually do worse than cash between May and October, they’d need to be less risky for these six months, which is absurd because volatility doesn’t take summer vacations.

Why do people believe in this flawed strategy?

Larry notes four reasons why people still believe in this flawed investment strategy:

• Recency bias: Media hypes the strategy after rare wins (like 2022).
• Pattern-seeking: Humans confuse coincidence with cause.
• “Free lunch” fantasy: Active investors crave simple shortcuts.

The proper investment to follow

Larry’s advice is to:

• Ignore the noise. Calendars don’t drive returns.
• Stay invested. Missing just 10 best days in 30 years slashes returns by 50%.
• Focus on what matters: Diversification, low costs, and tax efficiency.

Bottom line: The “Sell in May” strategy is a form of financial astrology. It confuses seasonal patterns with strategy. The market’s not a magic 8-ball. Stop gambling on folklore—and start compounding.

Chapter 38: Chasing Spectacular Fund Performance

In chapter 38, Larry explains why chasing spectacular performance is not a prudent investment strategy.

He starts the article by highlighting that 2020 was a phenomenal year for hot funds. During that year, 18 US stock funds posted gains of over 100%, attracting $19 billion in investor dollars in pursuit of recent performance. Their prior records seemed unstoppable—17 of 18 had reigned supreme over markets for three straight years.

The brutal reality

A landmark Morningstar study by Jeffrey Ptak looked into equity funds that gained more than 100% in a calendar year. He found that of the 123 stock funds that gained at least 100% between 1990 and 2016, just 24 made money in the three years following their phenomenal return.

More adversely, the average fund subsequently lost around 17% each year. Ptak also found that funds that failed in the years before their big gain were far more likely to earn more money during the years after that big year, compared to money that had been profitable during the period preceding their big gain.

Why do hot funds implode?

There are a few reasons why hot funds could implode. One is overvalued bets. For instance, the 2020 superstars held stocks trading at 3x the valuation of the Nasdaq 100. Another reason is the reversion to the mean. Extreme returns are statistical outliers, not a result of skill. Lastly, the crowd effect. Inflows surge after gains, forcing managers to buy at high prices.

The index fund quietly wins

Larry observes that while speculators chased fireworks, Fidelity’s Total Market Index (FSKAX) returned 20.8% in 2020, beating 80% of active funds in its category. It did this with a 0.01% fee, 1/100th the cost of typical active funds.

In conclusion, Larry reminds investors that the race to spectacular returns is a marathon, not a sprint. Winners ignore the fireworks.

Further reading

1. Jeffrey Ptak, “What Happens After Fund Managers Crush It?” The Evidence Based Investor, January 18, 2001.

Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform

• Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
• Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
• Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
• Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
• Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
• Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
• Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
• Enrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market Return
• Enrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion

Part II: Strategic Portfolio Decisions

• Enrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’t
• Enrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of Skill
• Enrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not Play
• Enrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future Performance
• Enrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon
• Enrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You Believe
• Enrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not Inevitable
• Enrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your Investments
• Enrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black Swans
• Enrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be Safe
• Enrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth Management

Part III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

• Enrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think Again
• Enrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth Taking
• Enrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment Decisions
• Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
• Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared
• Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?
• Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities
• Enrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing Biases
• Enrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend Stocks
• Enrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind Spot

Part IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and Investing

• Enrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s Errand
• Enrich Your Future 33: The Market Doesn’t Care How Smart You Are
• Enrich Your Future 34: Embrace the Bear: Why Market Crashes Are Your Silent Ally
• Enrich Your Future 35: Market Gurus Are Just Expensive Entertainers
• Enrich Your Future 36: The Madness of Crowded Trades

About Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.

Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Larry Swedroe

• LinkedIn
• X
• Website
• Books

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew...

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 36: Fashions and Investment Folly.

LEARNING: Do not be swayed by herd mentality.

 

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So do not bet against bubbles, because they can get bigger and bigger, totally irrational eventually, like a rubber band that gets stretched too far, it snaps back, and all those fake gains that weren’t fundamentally based get erased and investors get wiped out.”Larry Swedroe

 

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.

Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 36: Fashions and Investment Folly.

Chapter 36: Fashions and Investment Folly

In this chapter, Larry explains why investors allow themselves to be influenced by the herd mentality or the madness of crowds.

Perfectly rational people can be influenced by a herd mentality

When it comes to investing, otherwise perfectly rational people can be influenced by a herd mentality. The potential for significant financial rewards plays on the human emotions of greed and envy. In investing, as in fashion, fluctuations in attitudes often spread widely without any apparent logic.

Larry notes that one of the most remarkable statistics about the world of investing is that there are many more mutual funds than stocks, and there are also more hedge fund managers than stocks. There are also thousands of separate account managers. The question is: Why are there so many managers and so many funds?

Effects of recency bias

According to Larry, there are several explanations for the high number of managers and funds. The first is the all-too-human tendency to fall subject to “recency.” This is the tendency to give too much weight to recent experience while ignoring the lessons of long-term historical evidence. Larry says that investors subject to recency bias make the mistake of extrapolating the most recent past into the future, almost as if it is preordained that the recent trend will continue.

The result is that whenever a hot sector emerges, investors rush to jump on the bandwagon, and money flows into that sector. Inevitably, the fad (fashion) passes and ends badly. The bubble inevitably bursts.

Investment ads create demand where there is none

Another reason, Larry notes, is that the advertising machines of Wall Street’s investment firms are great at developing products to meet demand. The record indicates they are even great at creating demand where none should exist.

The internet became the greatest craze of all, and internet funds were designed to exploit the demand. Investors lost more fortunes in the craze. The latest fashions include cloud computing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence.

However, this trend, at least for mutual funds, has changed, and there are now fewer funds than there were at the height of the internet frenzy. This is a result of many poor performers being either merged out of existence (to erase their track record) or closed due to a lack of sufficient funds to keep them operational.

Inconsistent performance by active managers

Another reason for the proliferation of funds is that Wall Street machines recognize active managers’ track records as inconsistent (and often poor) performance. Thus, a family of funds may create several funds in the same category, hoping that at least one will be randomly hot at any given time.

How to beat herd mentality

To overcome herd mentality, Larry advises investors to craft a comprehensive investment plan that factors in their risk tolerance. By building a globally diversified portfolio and sticking to this plan, investors can navigate the market’s noise and emotional triggers, such as greed and envy during bull markets and fear and panic during bear markets.

He also adds that investors will benefit more from using passively managed funds to implement the plan; this is the only way to ensure they do not underperform the market. Minimizing this risk gives them the best chance to achieve their goals. If investors adopt the winner’s game of passive investing, they will no longer have to spend time searching for that hot fund. They can spend time on far more critical issues.

Further reading

1. Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness
2. Quoted in Edward Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost, (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1999).

Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform

• Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
• Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
• Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
• Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
• Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
• Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
• Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
• Enrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market Return
• Enrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion

Part II: Strategic Portfolio Decisions

• Enrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’t
• Enrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of Skill
• Enrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not Play
• Enrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future Performance
• Enrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon
• Enrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You Believe
• Enrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not Inevitable
• Enrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your Investments
• Enrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black Swans
• Enrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be Safe
• Enrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth Management

Part III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

• Enrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think Again
• Enrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth Taking
• Enrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment Decisions
• Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
• Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared
• Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?
• Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities
• Enrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing Biases
• Enrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend Stocks
• Enrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind Spot

Part IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and Investing

• Enrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s Errand
• Enrich Your Future 33: The Market Doesn’t Care How Smart You Are
• Enrich Your Future 34: Embrace the Bear: Why Market Crashes Are Your Silent Ally
• Enrich Your Future 35: Market Gurus Are Just Expensive Entertainers

About Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.

Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Larry Swedroe

• LinkedIn
• X
• Website
• Books

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Threads
• X
• YouTube
• My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 35: Mad Money.

LEARNING: Investors are naive, and Cramer is an entertainer, not a financial advisor who adds value.

 

“Do not confuse information with value-added information. If you know something because it was in the newspaper, everyone else knows it as well. So it has no value.”Larry Swedroe

 

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.

Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 35: Mad Money.

Chapter 35: Mad Money

In this chapter, Larry explains why investment advice from so-called market experts is often worthless.

The infamous Jim Cramer

Jim Cramer, a former hedge fund manager, has become one of the most recognizable faces in the investment world. He dispenses rapid-fire investment advice on the show “Mad Money.” Since it premiered in March 2005, it has been one of CNBC’s most-watched shows. But has his advice been as successful for the investors who follow it? Larry shares a couple of research studies that answer this question.

It pays more to invest in an S&P than in Cramer’s fund

Cramer manages a portfolio that invests in many of the stock recommendations he makes on TV. Established in August 2001 with approximately $3 million, the Action Alerts PLUS (AAP) portfolio has been the centerpiece of Cramer’s media company, TheStreet, which sells his financial advice, giving subscribers in the millions access to each trade the portfolio makes ahead of time. Jonathan Hartley and Matthew Olson, authors of the 2018 study “Jim Cramer’s Mad Money Charitable Trust Performance and Factor Attribution,” examined the AAP portfolio’s historical performance. Their study covered the period from August 1, 2001, the AAP portfolio’s inception, through December 31, 2017. The study found that the fund returned a total of 97%. During that same period, an investment in the S&P would have returned 204%.

No real stock-picking skill, just entertainment

In another study, “How Mad Is Mad Money?”, Paul Bolster, Emery Trahan, and Anand Venkateswaran examined Cramer’s buy and sell recommendations for the period from July 28, 2005, through December 31, 2008. They also constructed a portfolio of his recommendations and compared it to a market index. The researchers came to three key conclusions:

• Investors were paying attention, as the stocks he recommended had abnormal returns of almost 2% on the day following his recommendations.
• The returns for the recommended stocks were both positive and significant for the day of the show and the 30 days preceding the show. So, it seems he was recommending stocks with short-term momentum.
• The returns were negative and significant, at -0.33% and -2.1%, for days 2 through 5 and days 2 through 30 following the recommendation. After 30 days, the results are insignificant.

There is no evidence of any stock-picking skill—Cramer’s picks are neither good nor bad. In the end, it’s just entertainment.

A third study, “Is the Market Mad? Evidence from Mad Money,” conducted in 2005, found the same result as the second study: prices rise overnight, and they are quickly corrected. This means that Cramer added negative value for the people who tried to implement his advice because they drove the price up in their buying frenzy. Then the smart money comes in, and the price reverts to basically where it was before he made the recommendation.

Do stock market experts reliably provide stock market timing guidance?

In a fourth study, CXO Advisory Group set out to determine if stock market experts, whether self-proclaimed or endorsed by others (such as in the financial media), reliably provide stock market timing guidance.

To find the answer, from 2005 through 2012, they collected and investigated 6,584 forecasts for the US stock market offered publicly by 68 experts (including Cramer), employing technical, fundamental, and sentiment indicators. Their collection included forecasts, all of which were publicly available on the internet, dating back to the end of 1998. They selected experts, both bulls and bears, based on web searches for public archives that contained enough forecasts spanning various market conditions to gauge their accuracy. Basically, they found there are no real experts.

The distribution of their accuracy looks virtually identical to a bell curve but slightly to the left, meaning, on average, they do worse. The average accuracy was 47%, which happened to be the same score as Cramer’s. So, of all the non-expert experts, Cramer was average at being non-expert.

The market is highly efficient for any guru

According to Larry, all these studies indicate that investors are naive, Cramer is an entertainer, not a financial advisor, who adds value, and that the market is highly efficient, making it very hard to beat it.

They also show that being highly intelligent (and entertaining, in Cramer’s case) is not a sufficient condition to outperform the market. The reason is simple. There are many other highly intelligent money managers whose price discovery actions work to keep the market highly efficient (meaning market prices are the best estimate we have of the right price). That makes it unlikely any active money manager will outperform on a risk-adjusted basis.

The research shows that gurus’ only value is to make weathermen look good, whether it involves predicting economic growth, interest rates, currencies, or the stock market, or even picking individual stocks.

Ignore the prognosticators

Larry concludes that while Cramer might provide entertainment, those following his recommendations are like lambs being led to slaughter by more sophisticated institutional investors. He urges investors to keep this in mind the next time they find themselves paying attention to some guru’s latest forecast. You’re best served by ignoring it, he says.

The prudent strategy, Larry adds, is to develop a well-thought-out plan and to have the discipline to adhere to it, ignoring the market noise, whether it comes from Jim Cramer or any other prognosticator.

Further reading

1. Michael Learmonth, “Ratings Flood for Fox, CNN,” Variety, September 27, 2005.
2. Jonathan Hartley and Matthew Olson, “Jim Cramer’s Mad Money Charitable Trust Performance and Factor Attribution,” The Journal of Retirement (Summer 2018).
3. Paul Bolster, Emery Trahan and Anand Venkateswaran, “How Mad Is Mad Money?”The Journal of Investing (Summer 2012).
4. Joseph Engelberg, Caroline Sasseville and Jared Williams, “Is the Market Mad? Evidence from Mad Money,” March 22, 2006.
5. Bill Alpert, “Shorting Cramer,” Barron’s (August 20, 2007).
6. Jim Cramer, “Cramer vs. Cramer,” New York, May 25, 2007.
7. CXO Advisory Group, “Guru Grades,” www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus.

Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform

• Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
• Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
• Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
• Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
• Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
• Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
• Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
• Enrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market Return
• Enrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion

Part II: Strategic Portfolio Decisions

• Enrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’t
• Enrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of Skill
• Enrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not Play
• Enrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future Performance
• Enrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon
• Enrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You Believe
• Enrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not Inevitable
• Enrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your Investments
• Enrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black Swans
• Enrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be Safe
• Enrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth Management

Part III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

• Enrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think Again
• Enrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth Taking
• Enrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment Decisions
• Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
• Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared
• Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?
• Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities
• Enrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing Biases
• Enrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend Stocks
• Enrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind Spot

Part IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and Investing

• Enrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s Errand
• Enrich Your Future 33: The Market Doesn’t Care How Smart You Are
• Enrich Your Future 34: Embrace the Bear: Why Market Crashes Are Your Silent Ally

About Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.

Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Larry Swedroe

• LinkedIn
• X
• Website
• Books

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with...

BIO: Mike Koenigs is a serial entrepreneur with five successful exits, a 19-time bestselling author, and a top strategist for founders post-exit.

STORY: Mike invested big in a SaaS startup set up for success, but infighting brought it to its knees.

LEARNING: Character is bigger than charisma.

 

“If you’re a shareholder, your best exit is for a big company to come and buy what they believe is money at a discount.”Mike Koenigs

 

Guest profile

Mike Koenigs is a serial entrepreneur with five successful exits, a 19-time bestselling author, and a top strategist for founders post-exit. He helps build powerful personal brands in just one week and pioneers Generative AI for executives, speaking at elite events like Abundance 360, MIT, and Tony Robbins’ gatherings.

Worst investment ever

Mike learned about a SaaS startup from a client with whom he had spent time and had gotten to know, like, and trust him. So, when the client introduced Mike to this deal, he got interested.

The startup looked great, so he invested a substantial amount of money and then doubled down because it got even better.

Off to a promising start

The basic premise was that it was a pool. The founders would find SaaS companies with customers, momentum, technology, and a bit of a moat. They had much experience and success, such as a 10x dividend to investors in three years.

Infighting paralyzes everything

Unfortunately, the two founders started fighting. One of them locked the other one out of everything. They had the majority and equal shareholding, making infighting even worse. The remaining partner started emptying the coffers.

Someone doing the books became a whistleblower and revealed the shenanigans going on. The partner was siphoning off money, building a house, going on big trips, using private jets everywhere, etc. It got uglier and uglier, causing the shareholders to file lawsuits, and the FTC got involved. Years have gone by, and things are still shut down.

Lessons learned

• Time kills deals.
• Character is bigger than charisma. Crooked founders will gut you faster than any market downturn.
• Put all that money into index funds and let it compound.

Andrew’s takeaways

• The only way to invest as an angel investor is to invest in 10 startups. Don’t do it if you are not prepared with the money and time to do that.

Actionable advice

Unless you’re a full-time VC with deal flow, customer channels, or an exit mapped out, keep your money in things you can control. If you’re a shareholder, your best exit is for a big company to come and buy what they believe is money at a discount.

Mike’s recommendations

Mike recommends learning to build a brand that will elevate everything you touch for the rest of your life. He suggests reading his book, Your Next Act: The Six Growth Accelerators for Creating a Business You’ll Love for the Rest of Your Life, to help you build your brand. He also recommends immersing yourself in AI and learning how to use it effectively.

No.1 goal for the next 12 months

Mike’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to become an international citizen. He wants to continue living his beautiful life in multiple locations and working with more entrepreneurs worldwide.

Parting words

 

“Go out and build your brand. You will get access to better deals faster at a discounted price.”Mike Koenigs

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Mike Koenigs

• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Podcast
• Website
• Books

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Threads
• X
• YouTube
• My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil.

LEARNING: Investors must view bear markets as necessary evils.

 

“If stocks didn’t experience the kind of bear markets that we have, investors would be very unhappy.”Larry Swedroe

 

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.

Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil.

Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil

In this chapter, Larry explains why investors must view bear markets as necessary evils. He says that if stocks didn’t experience the kind of bear markets that we have, investors would be very unhappy.

Larry further explains that the most basic finance principle is the relationship between risk and expected, but not guaranteed, return. So, the higher the risk, the higher the expected return, which means that if the risk is high, investors will apply a bigger risk premium, which will lead to the denominator in the formula of the Net Present Value. The numerator is the expected earnings. The denominator is the risk-free rate plus the risk premium.

The higher the risk, the higher the premiums

Larry highlights historical bear markets, noting the U.S. has experienced losses exceeding 34% during the COVID crisis and 51% from 2007 to 2009. He argues that these losses are essential for investors to demand higher risk premiums. The very fact that investors have experienced such significant losses leads them to price stocks with a large risk premium.

From 1926 through 2022, the S&P provided an annual risk premium over one-month Treasury bills of 8.2% and an annualized premium of 6.9%. If the losses that investors experienced had been smaller, the risk premium would also have been smaller. And the smaller the losses experienced, the smaller the premium would have been.

In other words, the less risk investors perceive, the higher the price they are willing to pay for stocks. And the higher the market’s price-to-earnings ratio, the lower the future returns.

Staying the course during underperformance

The bottom line, Larry says, is that bear markets are necessary for the creation of the large equity risk premium we have experienced. Thus, if investors want stocks to provide high expected returns, bear markets (while painful to endure) should be considered a necessary evil.

However, Larry notes that it is during the periods of underperformance that investor discipline is tested. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that most investors significantly underperform the stock market and the mutual funds they invest in. The underperformance is because investors act like generals fighting the last war.

Subject to recency bias (the tendency to overweight recent events/trends and ignore long-term evidence), they observe yesterday’s winners and jump on the bandwagon—buying high—and they observe yesterday’s losers and abandon ship—selling low. It is almost as if investors believe they can buy yesterday’s returns when they can only buy tomorrow’s.

Keys to successful investing

Larry shares three keys to successful investing to ensure you get the most from your investments even during bear markets.

The first key is to have a well-thought-out plan that includes understanding the nature of the risks of investing. That means accepting that bear markets are inevitable and must be built into the plan.

This understanding will help you feel prepared and less anxious when bear markets occur. It also means having the discipline to stay the course when it is most difficult (partly because the media will be filled with stories of economic doom and gloom).

What is particularly difficult is that staying the course does not just mean buying and holding. Adhering to a plan requires that investors rebalance their portfolio, maintaining their desired asset allocation. That means that investors must buy stocks during bear markets and sell them in bull markets.

The second key to successful investing, Larry suggests, is to avoid taking more risk than you have the ability, willingness, and need to take. By steering clear of excessive risk, investors are more likely to stay the course and avoid the common buy high/sell low pattern that most investors fall into.

The last key is to understand that trying to time the market is a loser’s game—one that is possible to win but not prudent to try because the odds of doing so are so poor.

Further reading

1. 1996 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
2. 1992 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
3. 1991 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
4. 2006 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
5. 2004 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.

Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform

• Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
• Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
• Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
• Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
• Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
• Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
• Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
• Enrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market Return
• Enrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion

Part II: Strategic Portfolio Decisions

• Enrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’t
• Enrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of Skill
• Enrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not Play
• Enrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future Performance
• Enrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon
• Enrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You Believe
• Enrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not Inevitable
• Enrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your Investments
• Enrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black Swans
• Enrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be Safe
• Enrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth Management

Part III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

• Enrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think Again
• Enrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth Taking
• Enrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment Decisions
• Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
• Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared
• Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?
• Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities
• Enrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing Biases
• Enrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend Stocks
• Enrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind Spot

Part IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and Investing

• Enrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s Errand
• Enrich Your Future 33: The Market Doesn’t Care How Smart You Are

About Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.

Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Larry Swedroe

• LinkedIn
• X
• Website
• Books

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Threads
• X
• YouTube
• My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Jeff Sarti, CEO of Morton Wealth, leads a firm managing over $3 billion in assets. With a mission to empower better investors, Jeff helps clients achieve their financial goals while supporting employees in their career growth.

STORY: Jeff bought a few dot-com companies, thinking it was smart and safe because he bought the big brands. All of the companies dropped 90%+.

LEARNING: Don’t let greed, FOMO, and a lack of imagination drive you to a bad investment.

 

“Don’t take shortcuts. If you do, at least know that you’re gambling and speculating. That’s different from investing.”Jeff Sarti

 

Guest profile

Jeff Sarti, CEO of Morton Wealth, leads a firm managing over $3 billion in assets. With a mission to empower better investors, Jeff helps clients achieve their financial goals while supporting employees in their career growth. A CFA charterholder, Jeff shares his insights through his Perspective newsletter. His expertise emphasizes challenging the status quo and fostering long-term, resilient investment strategies.

Worst investment ever

In the late 90s, during the dot-com boom, Jeff had just started making a bit of money. He bought a few dot-com companies, thinking it was smart and safe because he bought the big brands. All of the companies dropped 90%+ after a while.

Lessons learned

• Don’t let greed, FOMO, and a lack of imagination drive you to a bad investment.
• Always do your research.

Andrew’s takeaways

• When prices get untethered from earnings growth, our expectation of the future is what matters.

Actionable advice

The only way you can learn is by doing and making mistakes. But before you start doing, do the research, understand the underlying risk factors of your investments, and don’t take shortcuts.

If you do, at least know you’re speculating and not investing. Keep that speculative piece of your portfolio small. It’s always a good idea to balance speculative investments with more traditional, long-term investment strategies for a more secure financial future.

Jeff’s recommendations

Jeff recommends checking out resources on his website, such as his investment guides and market analysis, and signing up for his quarterly newsletter if you want financial education.

He also recommends reading Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman and books by Morgan Housel to understand how emotions drive investment decisions.

No.1 goal for the next 12 months

Jeff’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to continue traveling the country with his investment team, uncovering some new niche opportunities.

Parting words

 

“I really enjoyed the conversation. It was a lot of fun.”Jeff Sarti

 

[spp-transcript]

 

Connect with Jeff Sarti

• LinkedIn
• Blog

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Threads
• X
• YouTube
• My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 33: An Investor’s Worst Enemy.

LEARNING: You are your own worst enemy when it comes to investing.

 

“The right strategy is to avoid the loser’s game. Don’t try to pick individual stocks or time the market, just invest in a disciplined way, and you will win by getting the market’s return.”Larry Swedroe

 

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.

Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 33: An Investor’s Worst Enemy.

Chapter 33: An Investor’s Worst Enemy

In this chapter, Larry demonstrates why investors are their own worst enemies. He observes that many people think the key to investing is identifying the stocks that will outperform the market and avoiding the ones that will underperform.

Yet the vast body of evidence says that’s playing the losers’ game. He adds that most professionals with advanced degrees in finance and mathematics, with access to the best databases and huge advantages over individuals, often think they’re smart enough to beat the market.

They do so by attempting to uncover individual securities they believe the rest of the market has somehow mispriced (the price is too high or too low). They also try to time their investment decisions to buy when the market is “undervalued” and sell when it is “overvalued.”

However, evidence shows that 98% of them fail to outperform in any statistically significant way on a risk-adjusted basis, even before taxes. As historian and author Peter Bernstein puts it: “The essence of investment theory is that being smart is not a sufficient condition for being rich.”

Why do people keep playing the loser’s game?

In the face of such overwhelming evidence, the puzzling question is why people keep trying to play a game they are likely to lose. From Larry’s perspective, there are four explanations:

1. Because our education system has failed investors and Wall Street, and most financial media want to conceal the evidence, people are unaware of it.
2. While the evidence suggests that playing the game of active management is the triumph of hope over wisdom and experience, hope does spring eternal—after all, a small minority succeed.
3. Active management is exciting, while passive management is boring.
4. Investors are overconfident—a normal human condition, not limited to investing. While each investor might admit that it’s hard to beat the market, each believes he will be one of the few who succeed.

So, what is the right strategy?

In light of the evidence presented, Larry’s advice is clear: avoid the losers’ game. Instead of trying to pick individual stocks or time the market, he advocates for a disciplined approach to investing. Investors can win by staying the course through bear markets by simply getting the market’s returns. This, he argues, is the right strategy for successful investing.

Suppose you choose to play the game of active investing. In that case, Larry warns, the only ones likely to benefit are your financial advisor, broker-dealer, the manager of the actively managed fund, and the publisher of the newsletter or ratings service you subscribe to. The odds are overwhelmingly against individual investors in this game, making it a futile endeavor.

Further reading

1. Jonathan Fuerbringer, “Investing It,” New York Times, March 30, 1997.
2. Robert McGough, “The Secret (Active) Dreams of an Indexer,” Wall Street Journal, February 25, 1997.
3. Peter Bernstein, The Portable MBA in Investment (Wiley, 1995).
4. Jonathan Clements, 25 Myths You’ve Got to Avoid (Simon & Schuster, 1998).
5. James H. Smalhout, “Too Close to Your Money?” Bloomberg Personal (November 1997).
6. Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich, Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes (Simon & Schuster, 1999).
7. Peter L. Bernstein and Aswath Damodaran (editors), Investment Management (Wiley, 1998).
8. Ron Ross, The Unbeatable Market (Optimum Press, 2002).

Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform

• Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
• Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
• Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
• Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
• Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
• Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
• Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
• Enrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market Return
• Enrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion

Part II: Strategic Portfolio Decisions

• Enrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’t
• Enrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of Skill
• Enrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not Play
• Enrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future Performance
• Enrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon
• Enrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You Believe
• Enrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not Inevitable
• Enrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your Investments
• Enrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black Swans
• Enrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be Safe
• Enrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth Management

Part III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

• Enrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think Again
• Enrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth Taking
• Enrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment Decisions
• Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
• Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared
• Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?
• Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities
• Enrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing Biases
• Enrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend Stocks
• Enrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind Spot

Part IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and Investing

• Enrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s Errand

About Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.

Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.

 

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Connect with Larry Swedroe

• LinkedIn
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• Website
• Books

Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
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• Threads
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• YouTube
• My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

A retailer in Bangkok was staring down a cash crunch after COVID. He was ready to sign for a loan, convinced it was his only option.

Instead, we dug into his numbers and found $30,000 in unsold inventory gathering dust and $8,000 in overpayments to suppliers. That cash was enough to stabilize his business; no debt was needed. The money was there; he just couldn’t see it.

Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit.

Find hidden profit before you borrow

When cash flow gets tight, panic sets in. Your mind races, layoffs, loans, maybe even shutting down. But fear isn’t a strategy. The truth is, your business is probably sitting on hidden profit, even in tough times. You just need to find it.

Start with a zero-based budget. That means you begin each budget line at zero, not last year’s number, and build it up based on what’s actually needed. Each team member justifies every expense from scratch. No assumptions. No carryovers. Just what drives results. Look at your expenses, inventory, and contracts. What’s wasting money?

Maybe it’s unused subscriptions, overstocked supplies, or a vendor charging too much. One client found $500 a month in duplicate software licenses. Canceling them took one email and saved $6,000 a year.

Cut smart, not deep

Don’t just cut costs mindlessly; focus on waste, not muscle. Keep what drives value, like your best staff or marketing, that works. I’ve seen owners slash their top salespeople in a panic, only to tank revenue. Instead, realign spending to what moves profit.

For example, shift the budget from low-margin products to high-margin ones. One business I worked with dropped a product line that was barely breaking even. That freed up $20,000 for ads, bringing in $100,000 in new sales.

Small wins create momentum. Even saving $1,000 can shift your mindset from panic to possibility. Try this: call your top five vendors this week. Ask for a 10% discount or better payment terms. Most will say no, but some will say yes to keep your business.

A client of mine negotiated $5,000 off his annual shipping costs in one 15-minute call. That’s cash you can use to grow, not just survive.

Discipline is your secret weapon

Discipline beats loans every time. Borrowing might feel like a lifeline, but it’s a weight around your neck if you don’t fix the root problems. A logistics firm I worked with was desperate for a loan. Instead, we audited their spending and found $8,600 in waste, unused equipment leases, and overpaid utilities. That cash funded a marketing push that brought in new clients without debt. They weren’t out of options; they just needed clarity.

Here’s one last story. That same logistics firm thought they were done. But that $8,600 audit changed everything. They used the savings to relaunch ads, landing three new contracts monthly. The owner told me, “I thought we were stuck. Turns out, we just needed to look closer.” What’s hiding in your business?

You’ve now faced the five hard truths holding your business back. You know no one’s coming to save you, that delay kills profit, that family dynamics can trap you, that leadership drives results, and that you have options even in a cash crunch. Now, it’s time to act. Pick one step this week, cut an expense, fix a meeting, check your P&L, and do it. Your business depends on you.

Actions from prior episodes

• Cut one cost: Block 30 minutes, review P&L, and cut one expense. Just one. Lead by example.
• Find one drain: Review finances weekly, searching for one hidden loss. Act now.
• Align the family: Hold a monthly, one-hour family meeting. Ask: “What will drive next month’s profit?” Prioritize profit over family tension.
• Lead the team: Run focused weekly meetings with a clear agenda and one action item. Drive results.

The next action

• Zero-based budgeting: Justify all expenses to free cash for growth.

Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit.

 Andrew’s books

• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• My Worst Investment Ever
• 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
• Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points

Andrew’s online programs

• Valuation Master Class
• The Become a Better Investor Community
• How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
• Finance Made Ridiculously Simple
• FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World
• Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence
• Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points
• Achieve Your Goals

Connect with Andrew Stotz:

• astotz.com
• LinkedIn
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Threads
• X
• YouTube
• My Worst Investment Ever Podcast