In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil.

LEARNING: Investors must view bear markets as necessary evils.

 

“If stocks didn’t experience the kind of bear markets that we have, investors would be very unhappy.”Larry Swedroe

 

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.

Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil.

Chapter 34: Bear Markets: A Necessary Evil

In this chapter, Larry explains why investors must view bear markets as necessary evils. He says that if stocks didn’t experience the kind of bear markets that we have, investors would be very unhappy.

Larry further explains that the most basic finance principle is the relationship between risk and expected, but not guaranteed, return. So, the higher the risk, the higher the expected return, which means that if the risk is high, investors will apply a bigger risk premium, which will lead to the denominator in the formula of the Net Present Value. The numerator is the expected earnings. The denominator is the risk-free rate plus the risk premium.

The higher the risk, the higher the premiums

Larry highlights historical bear markets, noting the U.S. has experienced losses exceeding 34% during the COVID crisis and 51% from 2007 to 2009. He argues that these losses are essential for investors to demand higher risk premiums. The very fact that investors have experienced such significant losses leads them to price stocks with a large risk premium.

From 1926 through 2022, the S&P provided an annual risk premium over one-month Treasury bills of 8.2% and an annualized premium of 6.9%. If the losses that investors experienced had been smaller, the risk premium would also have been smaller. And the smaller the losses experienced, the smaller the premium would have been.

In other words, the less risk investors perceive, the higher the price they are willing to pay for stocks. And the higher the market’s price-to-earnings ratio, the lower the future returns.

Staying the course during underperformance

The bottom line, Larry says, is that bear markets are necessary for the creation of the large equity risk premium we have experienced. Thus, if investors want stocks to provide high expected returns, bear markets (while painful to endure) should be considered a necessary evil.

However, Larry notes that it is during the periods of underperformance that investor discipline is tested. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that most investors significantly underperform the stock market and the mutual funds they invest in. The underperformance is because investors act like generals fighting the last war.

Subject to recency bias (the tendency to overweight recent events/trends and ignore long-term evidence), they observe yesterday’s winners and jump on the bandwagon—buying high—and they observe yesterday’s losers and abandon ship—selling low. It is almost as if investors believe they can buy yesterday’s returns when they can only buy tomorrow’s.

Keys to successful investing

Larry shares three keys to successful investing to ensure you get the most from your investments even during bear markets.

The first key is to have a well-thought-out plan that includes understanding the nature of the risks of investing. That means accepting that bear markets are inevitable and must be built into the plan.

This understanding will help you feel prepared and less anxious when bear markets occur. It also means having the discipline to stay the course when it is most difficult (partly because the media will be filled with stories of economic doom and gloom).

What is particularly difficult is that staying the course does not just mean buying and holding. Adhering to a plan requires that investors rebalance their portfolio, maintaining their desired asset allocation. That means that investors must buy stocks during bear markets and sell them in bull markets.

The second key to successful investing, Larry suggests, is to avoid taking more risk than you have the ability, willingness, and need to take. By steering clear of excessive risk, investors are more likely to stay the course and avoid the common buy high/sell low pattern that most investors fall into.

The last key is to understand that trying to time the market is a loser’s game—one that is possible to win but not prudent to try because the odds of doing so are so poor.

Further reading

1. 1996 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
2. 1992 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
3. 1991 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
4. 2006 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.
5. 2004 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway.

Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to Outperform

• Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
• Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
• Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
• Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
• Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return Investments
• Enrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete Rose
• Enrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security Analysis
• Enrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market Return
• Enrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money Illusion

Part II: Strategic Portfolio Decisions

• Enrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’t
• Enrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of Skill
• Enrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not Play
• Enrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future Performance
• Enrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the Horizon
• Enrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You Believe
• Enrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not Inevitable
• Enrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your Investments
• Enrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black Swans
• Enrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be Safe
• Enrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth Management

Part III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

• Enrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think Again
• Enrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth Taking
• Enrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment Decisions
• Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
• Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared
• Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?
• Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities
• Enrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing Biases
• Enrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend Stocks
• Enrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind Spot

Part IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and Investing

• Enrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s Errand
• Enrich Your Future 33: The Market Doesn’t Care How Smart You Are

About Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.

Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.

 

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