Today we talk market signals for the 2nd half of the 2026 following the Independence Day holiday. We highlight how semiconductor stocks and AI continue to heavily influence market performance while signs of healthy sector rotation emerge across industrials, financials, and other areas of the market. We examine weakening employment data, sluggish housing activity, elevated valuations, and the growing disconnect between economic fundamentals and rising stock prices, along with the Federal Reserve's new communication style under Chair Kevin Warsh and its potential impact on market volatility. We also explore how liquidity, inflation, oil prices, and geopolitical developments could shape the second half of the year.

We discuss...

• How semiconductor stocks continue to drive much of the S&P 500's performance and why that concentration matters.
• Why recent sector rotation into industrials, financials, and other areas is a healthy sign for the broader market.
• Whether AI-related valuations have become stretched after years of exceptional performance.
• Why investors should focus on price action and market trends rather than sensational headlines.
• Historical market seasonality and why the second half of the year can bring increased volatility.
• The latest employment report and explain why revisions and labor force participation deserve close attention.
• Why weak economic data has recently been viewed as positive news because it could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
• How slowing economic growth could eventually impact corporate earnings.
• Why the housing market remains sluggish despite record highs in the stock market.
• How oil prices, inflation, and monetary policy continue to influence investor sentiment.
• Why liquidity has remained a major driver of market performance despite weakening fundamentals.
• How government regulation can strengthen the competitive position of large companies while creating barriers for smaller competitors.
• The long-term economic impact of globalization, government policy, and structural market changes.
• Why maintaining a disciplined, long-term investment strategy is especially important in today's market.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/market-signals-831

Christine Healey explores the rapidly growing world of investing in companies pre-IPOs and how everyday investors are gaining access to private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, Stripe, and Anthropic before they go public. Christine explains why companies are staying private longer, how private market investing differs from traditional stock investing, and the opportunities and risks involved in buying shares before an IPO.

We talk deal structures, pricing, minimum investment requirements, the role of brokers, and why terms can vary significantly between transactions. We also covers liquidity through secondary markets, how market volatility affects private company valuations and investor demand, and why access to these investments is becoming increasingly important as more of the world's fastest-growing companies remain private for much longer than in previous decades.

We discuss...

• Why more high-growth companies are staying private longer before pursuing an IPO.
• Why founders often prefer to remain private to maintain control and avoid public market pressures.
• How pre-IPO investing has become more accessible beyond institutional investors and billionaires.
• The differences between investing in early-stage startups and late-stage pre-IPO companies.
• Typical investment minimums and why larger investors often receive better pricing and deal terms.
• How pre-IPO transactions are structured, including direct share purchases and SPVs.
• How secondary markets can provide liquidity before a company eventually goes public.
• Why private market pricing is less transparent than public stock markets.
• How market downturns often concentrate investor demand into a handful of high-profile private companies.
• How buyers may find better negotiating leverage in less sought-after private companies during volatile markets.
• The importance of working with experienced brokers to navigate complex private market transactions.
• The growing global demand for U.S. pre-IPO companies from both domestic and international investors.
• The risks, opportunities, and long-term potential of investing in private companies before they reach the public markets.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Marc Walton | Forex Mentor Pro

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Kirk shares the Q2 2026 market updates and the market's recent sector rotation as technology stocks pause after leading gains for much of the year. Healthcare, utilities, and other sectors begin to take the lead. This shift is a healthy sign for the broader market, the benefits of equal-weight investing during periods of rotation, and where investors may find opportunities going forward.

Kirk also examines the recent pullback in gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies, why weakness in these assets could create long-term buying opportunities, and the risks surrounding Bitcoin-related companies like Strategy. Finally, falling oil prices, inflation data, and interest rate expectations under the new Federal Reserve chair are discussed.

• Why the recent rotation out of technology and into sectors like healthcare is a healthy sign for the broader market.
• How sector rotation works and why investors should pay attention to shifting market leadership.
• Why technology's dominance has kept the broader indexes elevated despite weakness in many other sectors.
• Which sectors may offer better opportunities in the coming months, including healthcare, industrials, materials, and consumer staples.
• Why investors should remain cautious toward energy, utilities, and certain financial stocks given current interest rate and oil market conditions.
• The recent pullback in gold and silver and why weakness in precious metals could create long-term buying opportunities.
• Why precious metals remain an important portfolio hedge despite short-term price declines.
• Concerns surrounding Strategy and why leveraged Bitcoin treasury companies carry additional risks.
• Recent inflation data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and why higher inflation may not necessarily lead to additional rate hikes.
• How easing oil prices and improving geopolitical conditions could influence inflation and economic growth in the months ahead.
• Concerns surrounding upcoming AI company IPOs and questioned whether large language model businesses have sustainable competitive advantages.
• Key market risks to watch, including earnings season, inflation, interest rates, geopolitical developments, and continued sector rotation.

Today's Panelist:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/q2-2026-market-updates

Michael Youngblood joined the show to discuss investing in mortgages with the evolution of the U.S. mortgage market. He draws on more than four decades of experience in mortgage banking, securitization, and housing finance. We explored the key causes of the 2008 financial crisis, why falling home prices caught investors off guard. Michael explained the risks and opportunities of investing in mortgage-backed securities, the differences between MBSs, CMOs, and REMICs, and why prepayment risk remains a major consideration for investors. We also discussed housing affordability challenges, FHA loans, down payment hurdles facing first-time buyers, potential future changes to mortgage regulations, and the outlook for both residential and commercial real estate financing as demographic shifts, interest rates, and post-COVID trends continue to reshape the market.

We discuss...

• How declining home prices in 2007–2008 triggered a surge in mortgage defaults and helped spark the financial crisis.
• Why investors, lenders, and regulators failed to anticipate the severity of the housing market collapse.
• How banks manage mortgage risk by selling or securitizing loans while retaining their highest-quality borrowers.
• The key risks investors face when investing in mortgage-backed securities, including prepayment and credit risk.
• The differences between mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), and REMICs.
• Why mortgage market innovation has slowed significantly since the 2008 financial crisis.
• Exploration of potential future changes to mortgage products and regulations aimed at improving housing affordability.
• How adjustable-rate mortgages could be expanded without returning to the risky lending practices that contributed to the housing crisis.
• The challenges self-employed borrowers face when trying to qualify for mortgage financing.
• How falling interest rates could trigger a new wave of mortgage refinancing activity.
• Housing affordability challenges driven by rising home prices and large down payment requirements.
• How commercial mortgage lending differs from residential lending in underwriting and risk management.
• The growing role of family wealth transfers and financial assistance in helping younger generations purchase homes.
• Michael shares his outlook on housing affordability and why mortgage financing remains attractive relative to many other forms of borrowing.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-in-mortgages-michael-youngblood-828

We have an investing recommendation for you: patience and caution!

We discussed current market conditions and why markets have largely moved sideways despite strong gains earlier in the year. We examined the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, debating whether its valuation justifies the excitement and highlighting the risks of buying high-profile stocks at elevated prices. We also explore market concentration in technology and semiconductors, the challenges facing software companies, and the growing influence of AI on corporate spending and investment decisions. We talk why investors should avoid chasing performance or making decisions based on FOMO, nuclear energy, and considered how changing market dynamics, valuations, and AI-driven trends may impact investment returns going forward.

We discuss...

• Why patience and caution remain important as markets have moved largely sideways over the past month.
• The SpaceX IPO and whether its valuation justifies the excitement surrounding the stock.
• Why great companies can still be poor investments if purchased at the wrong price.
• The risks of chasing market trends and investing based on FOMO.
• The concentration of market gains in technology and semiconductor stocks.
• The growing divergence between semiconductor companies and the broader software sector.
• Whether massive AI spending will ultimately generate returns that justify the investment.
• How AI is changing the business models and cash flow profiles of major technology companies.
• AI adoption may be advancing faster than its practical economic benefits.
• Why shorting expensive stocks can be extremely risky despite lofty valuations.
• The long-term investment case for nuclear energy and the growing power demands of AI data centers.
• The recent strength of the U.S. dollar despite widespread predictions of its decline.
• The importance of staying within your circle of competence when making investment decisions.
• How market valuations may impact expected returns over the next decade.
• Why diversification remains critical in an environment dominated by a handful of technology stocks.
• Why investors should focus on risk management rather than trying to predict market outcomes.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-recommendation-827

David Baker talks about why investing in undeveloped land may be the secret strategy you've been waiting for. We also discuss why water rights may become one of the most valuable assets in the coming decades and how growing water scarcity is driving demand for land with access to water. Drawing on his background as a hedge fund manager, real estate investor, and founder of the Land Value Alpha Fund, David explained how water rights work, particularly in Montana, where groundwater and surface water rights can significantly increase property values.

He highlighted research suggesting that investments in water infrastructure such as wells, pumps, storage systems, and distribution networks can generate substantial returns, while increasing demand for water, energy, and developable land is creating a powerful convergence that could push land prices much higher over time.

We discuss...

• Why water scarcity is becoming a growing global issue and increasing the value of water-rich land.
• How groundwater and surface water rights work, particularly in Montana.
• The unique advantages of Montana as a headwater state that supplies water to much of the western United States.
• How property owners can develop wells and water infrastructure to increase the value of their land.
• Research suggesting that investments in water infrastructure can generate significant returns relative to their cost.
• Why water rights are becoming increasingly important for homeowners, farmers, developers, and businesses.
• How increasing demand for water and developable land could drive land prices substantially higher in the future.
• The relationship between land ownership and water access, and why water often determines a property's long-term value.
• Examples of investors and institutions acquiring land specifically for its water resources.
• How water banks allow water rights to be leased, traded, and allocated among different users.
• The challenges surrounding water allocation and legal rights in regions facing water shortages.
• Why desalination has not been adopted more broadly despite its potential to address water shortages.
• Real-world examples of water rights mistakes that can create major problems for landowners and developers.
• Why understanding local regulations is critical when investing in land and water resources.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-in-undeveloped-land-david-baker-826

As SpaceX stock soars, we talk IPOs for space and beyond. We also focus on the market's reaction to a new Iran ceasefire agreement, the implications of the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, and what these developments may signal about broader market conditions. We look over how IPOs have historically performed, why many high-profile offerings struggle after their debut, and whether SpaceX's valuation reflects genuine business fundamentals or investor enthusiasm. We also examined the economic impact of falling oil prices, shifting inflation expectations, upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions, consumer spending trends, and why correlations often drive market narratives.

We discuss...

The market's positive reaction to a renewed Iran ceasefire and the resulting drop in oil prices. Breakdown of the SpaceX IPO, its first-day performance, and why retail investors were eager to participate. How IPOs work and why many high-profile offerings historically decline after going public. Why company insiders often choose to take businesses public when valuations are most favorable. Past IPOs including Uber, Meta, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Rivian to illustrate common post-IPO price patterns. Whether SpaceX's valuation is justified by the strength of its Starlink business and launch operations. OpenAI, Anthropic IPO expectations and concerns about AI company valuations. How large IPOs can act as liquidity drains by attracting capital away from existing market leaders. Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire and what that signifies for investor sentiment. How falling energy prices could help reduce inflation and improve economic conditions. Upcoming Federal Reserve leadership changes and expectations for future interest rate policy. Consumer spending trends and the role of Baby Boomer wealth in supporting economic activity. Why investors should focus on correlations rather than assuming direct causation in market movements.

For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/ipos-for-space-625

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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Alex Gurevich talks about the next perfect trade! We discuss major shifts in the macro investing landscape, including the breakdown of the traditional stock-bond relationship, why U.S. Treasuries no longer act as a reliable flight-to-safety asset, and how inflation, fiscal policy, and changing market regimes are reshaping investment strategies. Alex shares his framework for identifying high-probability trades, explains why he believes interest rates could ultimately return to zero if the labor market weakens, and discusses opportunities and risks in global markets, currencies, gold, emerging markets, and China. We also explore the long-term impact of artificial intelligence on productivity, employment, and economic growth and more!

We discuss...

• The breakdown of the traditional stock-bond relationship and how it is changing portfolio diversification strategies.
• Why U.S. Treasuries are no longer acting as a reliable flight-to-safety asset and what that means for investors.
• The impact of inflation, fiscal policy, and shifting market regimes on the macroeconomic outlook.
• Why labor market trends remain the most important factor influencing future Federal Reserve decisions.
• The possibility that interest rates could eventually return to zero if economic growth and employment weaken.
• Investment opportunities and risks across currencies, bonds, emerging markets, and international equities.
• The relative attractiveness of gold, U.S. Treasuries, and other hard assets in the current environment.
• China's economic challenges, AI ambitions, and its position in the global race for technological leadership.
• How artificial intelligence is driving investment, productivity gains, and economic growth across multiple sectors.
• The potential for AI-driven job displacement and a temporary economic adjustment period before larger long-term benefits emerge.
• Key market risks stemming from geopolitical conflict, energy prices, and evolving global economic dynamics.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/next-perfect-trade-alex-gurevich-824

Today we talk the investing secrets for IPOs, Bitcoin, and AI. There is also growing market uncertainty as strong earnings, resilient employment data, and a potential SpaceX IPO collide raise concerns. A small group of AI and semiconductor stocks have driven most market gains while many sectors have remained flat, raising concerns about narrow market leadership and investor complacency. We examine how stronger-than-expected jobs data could keep interest rates elevated for longer and create headwinds for stocks and cryptocurrencies. We also cover Bitcoin's cyclical boom-and-bust patterns, the importance of risk management, the growing role of gold in global central bank reserves, and emerging long-term investment themes such as AI infrastructure, nuclear power, electrification, robotics, and space technology.

We discuss...

• The growing market divergence as AI and semiconductor stocks continue to drive gains while most sectors remain flat.
• How strong earnings results have failed to lift the broader market despite solid corporate performance.
• Why stronger-than-expected jobs data could keep interest rates higher for longer and delay potential Fed rate cuts.
• The impact of liquidity conditions on stocks, cryptocurrencies, and overall market sentiment.
• Signs that the economy may be entering a late-cycle phase characterized by tighter financial conditions and rising IPO activity.
• The risks and opportunities surrounding the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO and what history suggests about buying newly public companies.
• Bitcoin's historical boom-and-bust cycles, potential downside targets, and the importance of managing risk in crypto investing.
• Why investors should focus on their own investment strategy instead of chasing the market's hottest trends.
• Housing affordability challenges and the widening gap between the costs of owning and renting a home.
• Gold surpassing U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by global central banks.
• Emerging investment themes including AI infrastructure, nuclear energy, electrification, robotics, quantum computing, and space technology.
• The importance of diversification and risk management in a market increasingly driven by a small group of high-performing stocks.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-secrets-for-ipos-823

Fred Amrein shares secret college funding strategies today as we discussing major changes to college financing under the recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill." There are new federal borrowing limits for undergraduate, graduate, and professional school students while reducing repayment flexibility. We explore how these changes will shift the focus from college access to affordability, forcing families to carefully evaluate the return on investment of higher education, plan for graduate school costs earlier, and rely more heavily on private loans when federal limits are reached. Fred explains the potential impact on colleges, including tuition resets, increased financial pressure on smaller schools, and a growing need for students to choose programs and career paths with stronger economic outcomes, while emphasizing the importance of long-term financial planning and understanding the true cost of borrowing before selecting a school.

We discuss...

• The major changes to federal student loan programs under the recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill."
• A breakdown of new borrowing limits for undergraduate, graduate, and professional degree programs.
• How stricter underwriting requirements will shift the focus from college access to affordability.
• How Parent PLUS loan changes could impact families and future college funding decisions.
• The growing role private student loans may play as federal borrowing options become more limited.
• Comparison of federal and private student loan repayment terms, interest rates, and long-term costs.
• How college financing decisions for one child may now affect borrowing options for siblings.
• Why some colleges may be forced to lower tuition, increase aid, merge, or close due to demographic and financial pressures.
• The declining return on investment of certain college degrees and the growing appeal of skilled trades.
• How labor market demand, career outcomes, and AI-driven changes could influence future education choices.
• Conversation about the shift from viewing college as an educational investment to viewing it as an experience-driven purchase.
• Why graduating on time and minimizing excess borrowing will become increasingly important for students.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-college-funding-strategies-822