The market is changing and today we are talking about the growing risks and shifting dynamics as Wall Street returns from the summer and investors face higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and expensive valuations. We examine why strong economic data can actually be bad news for stocks if it reduces the need for Fed rate cuts and we also discuss the changing role of bonds in diversified portfolios, the importance of sequence-of-returns risk for retirees, the difficulty of comparing investment performance to the S&P 500 during an unusual year, and why investors should focus on the investing fundamentals. We review trends across commodities, gold, Bitcoin, oil, small caps, technology, and the S&P 500, while making sure you remember to proceed with caution heading into historically weaker months.

We discuss...

• Why an expensive market does not necessarily mean investors should stay out, especially after decades of elevated valuations.
• How investor ego can lead to poor decisions, including repeatedly buying declining stocks simply because they appear cheaper.
• Why valuation must be considered relative to a company's expected growth rather than viewed as a standalone P/E ratio.
• Higher inflation and interest rates are major risks that could eventually pressure stock valuations and economic growth.
• How rising interest rates can hurt long-term bonds, utilities, housing, highly leveraged companies, and businesses dependent on borrowing to grow.
• Why investors should pay closer attention to commodities as inflation and geopolitical disruptions affect prices.
• How stronger-than-expected employment data could be bad news for markets because it may reduce the Federal Reserve's need to cut rates.
• We examined the unusually long drawdown in the bond market and why traditional stock-and-bond diversification has not worked as well since the pandemic.
• Bonds should serve a specific purpose in a portfolio, such as income, liquidity, liability matching, or near-term spending needs.
• The market's unusual performance this year, including the outsized influence of semiconductor and technology stocks on overall index returns.
• The dangers of relying on financial media and developing an independent investment view based on facts, fundamentals, and personal research.
• A warning against shorting the overall market and a reminder that there are other ways to manage portfolio risk and hedge against downturns.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-market-is-changing-849

Bill Harris discusses the rapidly evolving role of AI personal finance, sharing his experience building companies including Intuit, PayPal, Personal Capital, and his own Evergreen Wealth. We explore how AI is currently being used primarily for internal efficiencies, research, and basic advisor tasks, while the bigger opportunity lies in delivering highly personalized financial guidance directly to consumers. Bill explains why AI still struggles with math, accuracy, consistency, and privacy, and why financial applications should combine AI with deterministic tools and strong security protections. We also talk AI's potential in tax preparation, portfolio management, and investment research, the importance of specialized financial AI systems, and the emerging hybrid model that combines AI technology with human financial advisors.

We discuss...

• How AI is transforming financial technology and why its biggest opportunities may come from highly personalized financial guidance.
• Most financial institutions currently use AI primarily for internal cost savings, while advisors tend to use it for basic tasks like note-taking.
• Why consumers are adopting AI for financial questions faster than financial advisors and firms are integrating it into their practices.
• Why general-purpose AI can produce inaccurate and inconsistent financial answers, particularly when it comes to complex calculations.
• The growing importance of privacy and security when using AI with sensitive personal and financial information.
• How specialized financial AI can combine frontier models with secure environments and strict controls to protect users' data.
• How AI could improve tax preparation by handling reasoning and personalized interactions while relying on deterministic tools for calculations.
• Why AI's probabilistic nature means it should use separate deterministic tools for financial calculations that require consistent and repeatable results.
• The limited use of AI in actual portfolio management and investment decisions, with most professionals currently using it primarily for research, analysis, and idea generation.
• Specialized AI systems built specifically for financial applications will be more effective than general-purpose AI because they can be trained to use the right tools for specific tasks.
• The future of financial advice and why a hybrid model combining AI technology with human advisors could provide the most powerful and personalized experience.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-personal-finance-bill-harris-848

Today we talk gold's false start and the housing market fall as we focus on growing risks and uncertainty in the markets. The Fed takes a more hawkish stance on inflation, signaling that interest rates could stay higher for longer while offering little guidance on future policy. We cover the impact of the recent U.S.-Canada tariffs, rising Treasury yields, the $40 trillion national debt, housing-market weakness, rising foreclosures, and the potential risks facing commercial real estate and regional banks. We also examine the current going ons of gold, silver, and Bitcoin as recent gains could be a false start. As always, emphasize caution, diversification, and maintain a long-term perspective rather than reacting to short-term market moves.

We discuss...

• The Fed's hawkish stance on inflation is raising expectations for higher interest rates and a longer period of restrictive monetary policy.
• The escalating U.S.-Canada tariff dispute is creating additional economic uncertainty and increasing concerns about inflation and slower growth.
• Treasury yields and government debt remain major concerns as the U.S. national debt surpasses $40 trillion and interest costs continue to climb.
• The housing market is showing signs of weakness, including elevated inventory, declining new-home sales, rising foreclosures, and worsening affordability.
• Higher mortgage rates and insurance costs are making it increasingly difficult for homeowners to access liquidity from their real estate holdings.
• Commercial real estate faces significant refinancing risks as more than $1 trillion in debt is scheduled to mature while borrowing costs remain elevated.
• Weakening employment data and downward revisions to job growth suggest the labor market may be slowing more than headline figures indicate.
• Gold, silver, and Bitcoin have performed strongly recently, but the hosts believe investors should remain cautious about chasing the rally.
• Historical data shows that midterm election years have frequently experienced significant market drawdowns after August.
• Market timing requires making two decisions, when to sell and when to buy back, and both are difficult to get right.
• Global markets have produced widely different returns, reinforcing the potential benefits of looking beyond the S&P 500 for diversification.
• Hot money has been rotating between Bitcoin, precious metals, industrials, energy, and semiconductors throughout the year rather than staying concentrated in one asset.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/golds-false-start-847

Michael Williams joins the show to talk the tax strategy that most investors aren't using yet! He explains his three-phase approach to tax efficiency, focusing on using depreciation as an interest-free loan from the government to redirect money that would otherwise go toward taxes into income-producing assets. We cover his platform's current focus on data center infrastructure, including GPUs and servers, and digital advertising screens, as well as other potential assets such as construction equipment, bourbon barrels, trash trucks, and rental vehicles. Michael stresses the importance of working with qualified tax professionals and choosing assets with strong contracted revenue, bankability, and real economic performance rather than relying solely on tax savings. Today we discuss...

• How high-net-worth individuals and business owners can use tax-efficient investment strategies to keep more money invested rather than paying it in taxes.
• The three phases of tax efficiency, including structuring finances, using depreciable assets, and determining how to own assets going forward.
• How depreciation can function like an interest-free loan from the government by allowing investors to redirect money that would otherwise go toward taxes.
• Data center infrastructure, including GPUs and servers, as one of the primary depreciable asset strategies currently offered.
• Digital advertising screens and billboards as another cash-flowing asset that can qualify for bonus depreciation.
• That investors should never purchase an asset solely for its tax benefits and that the underlying investment must make economic sense on its own.
• How revenue-sharing pools can help diversify cash flow across multiple assets rather than tying an investor's returns to a single asset.
• How these strategies can provide opportunities for investors who do not want to rely on real estate professional status to take advantage of depreciation.
• The importance of material participation and understanding whether an investor can actively participate enough to utilize certain tax benefits.
• What investors should look for in legitimate programs, including cash-flowing assets, contracted revenue, strong counterparties, and bankability.
• Tax savings should complement a strong investment rather than be the primary reason for making the investment.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/tax-strategy-michael-williams-846

Gold, Bitcoin, and bonds are sending very important signals right now if you're paying attention. Today we talk about the growing concerns in the bond market, including surging Treasury yields, government intervention, persistent inflation, massive deficits, and the potential impact on mortgage rates and the housing market. We also cover recent moves in stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin, commodities, and the dollar, with gold showing particular strength as investors seek alternatives amid bond-market uncertainty and concerns about currency debasement. We explore growing demand for precious metals, central-bank gold buying, silver's industrial demand from AI and infrastructure, and the possibility of further volatility from the paper-to-physical gold market. As always, remain cautious, watch market reactions rather than headlines, and pay close attention to what happens after Labor Day as investors return and markets establish a clearer direction.

We discuss...

• Bond yields surged to multi-decade highs, raising concerns about inflation, government deficits, and financial stability.
• The U.S. Treasury intervened in the long-end of the bond market to help control rising borrowing costs.
• Investors are increasingly demanding higher term premiums because of massive government debt issuance and persistent deficits.
• Rising Treasury yields pushed 30-year mortgage rates back above 6.6%, adding pressure to an already frozen housing market.
• The S&P 500 has remained near the top of its trading range while the Nasdaq has largely moved sideways.
• Gold surged unexpectedly, with its strength potentially reflecting investor concerns about the bond market and a search for safe-haven assets.
• Silver has moved alongside gold, suggesting healthier momentum across precious metals than seen during previous periods of divergence.
• The dollar remains within a broader trading range, making its direction an important indicator of overall market health.
• Persistent inflation and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy are pushing investors to reconsider expectations for interest-rate cuts.
• Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and potential energy supply disruptions could add further inflationary pressure through higher oil prices.
• Trade tensions and tariffs involving the United States, Canada, and Mexico were discussed as another source of economic uncertainty.
• Central-bank gold purchases, de-dollarization concerns, and demand for physical bullion are contributing to gold's strength.
• Bitcoin's recent rally was linked to changing regulation, global liquidity, bond-market conditions, and increased institutional access through spot ETFs.
• Bitcoin's price action was described as increasingly influenced by global liquidity and bond yields rather than its internal supply schedule alone.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/gold-bitcoin-and-bonds-845

George Kailas joins the show to discuss Fintech, options, and investing strategies that are shaping the landscape of finance. He shares how AI and alternative data are changing investing and leveling the playing field between retail investors and hedge funds. He explains how his company, Prospero, uses AI-powered signals that simplify complex market information, including options sentiment, social sentiment, technical flow, short pressure, and dark pool activity. George discusses the strengths and limitations of using AI for investment research, emphasizing that AI can identify momentum and analyze large amounts of information but may struggle to recognize when a trend is ending or accurately assess risk. He also explains how investors can build a repeatable research process based on their goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, while using multiple sources rather than relying solely on AI.

We discuss...

• How AI and alternative data are changing the investment landscape and giving retail investors greater access to sophisticated research.
• The evolution of hedge fund technology from expensive, exclusive information toward widely accessible AI tools.
• The strengths and limitations of using large language models for stock research and investment decisions.
• What investment signals are and how they can simplify complicated market data into easier-to-understand scores.
• How Prospero uses signals based on options sentiment, social sentiment, technical flow, short pressure, and dark pool activity.
• How options sentiment can help investors identify institutional positioning and potential changes in market momentum.
• How AI is used to improve and test signals rather than simply allowing AI to make investment decisions.
• Why investors should develop a repeatable research process based on their goals, time horizon, available time, and risk tolerance.
• The importance of using multiple sources of information instead of relying on AI or a single investment signal.
• How investors can track their decisions and results to determine which signals and strategies actually work for them.
• George's transition from working with hedge funds to becoming an entrepreneur focused on making financial markets more accessible.
• Prospero's business model and its long-term plans to build trust, expand into wealth management, and utilize alternative data.
• The potential for crowdsourced alternative data to create new insights into markets and economic conditions.
• How simplifying complex options data into standardized signals can make sophisticated market information easier for everyday investors to understand.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/fintech-options-and-investing-george-kailas-844

There are all sort of shenanigans going on, so we're here to discuss the accounting frauds, grifts, and tricks currently plaguing the market. We talk the financial structures being used to fund the booming AI industry, including debt, stock issuance, vendor financing, and special purpose vehicles, while highlighting the importance of recognizing financial "shenanigans" and understanding why companies choose different financing methods. We also explore accounting red flags, Wall Street incentives, government investment in companies like Intel, and lessons from past market bubbles. We also check the current trends in stocks, small caps, gold, oil, copper, Bitcoin, Japanese markets, bonds and more.

We discuss...

• AI companies are using debt, stock issuance, and special purpose vehicles to fund the massive capital requirements of the AI boom.
• How vendor financing and factoring can signal potential cash-flow problems or financial stress.
• Companies may issue stock to raise capital, protect their balance sheets, or take advantage of elevated valuations.
• Lessons from the dot-com bubble and the risks of vendor financing and aggressive accounting practices.
• Wall Street's incentives can create bullish biases and discourage analysts from publicly criticizing companies.
• Government investment in strategically important companies like Intel can provide short-term support while creating longer-term concerns.
• The S&P 500 remains in an upward trend while the Nasdaq and technology stocks continue to consolidate within trading ranges.
• Small-cap stocks have been performing well despite receiving relatively little attention from investors.
• Gold, copper, oil, Bitcoin, and Japanese stocks were reviewed for their latest market trends and potential opportunities.
• Rising inflation could keep long-term interest rates elevated and create continued pressure on bond prices.
• The discussion emphasized favoring higher-quality, shorter-duration bonds given the risks surrounding interest rates and credit spreads.
• The growing U.S. government debt burden could create a difficult cycle of rising interest costs and additional borrowing.
• Federal Reserve wealth data showed a significant gap between average and median household net worth across age groups.
• Inflation can disproportionately hurt lower-wealth households because wealthier investors are better positioned to own assets that can rise with inflation.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management
• Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors
• Marc Walton | Forex Mentor Pro
• Tim Baker | Metric Fin
• Diana Perkins | Trading With Diana

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/accounting-fraud-grifts-and-tricks-843

Dana Samuelson joins us to share about a secret golden opportunity to protect your wealth! We also talk central bank buying, inflation, interest rates, and the growing role of precious metals as an alternative store of value. He explains why central banks have shifted from decades of selling gold to becoming major buyers, how Basel III could support gold demand, and why recent price gains may be entering a consolidation phase. We also explore silver's industrial demand from solar panels, electronics, data centers, and potential EV battery technology, along with its growing physical supply deficit. Dana shares his views on precious metals investing, comparing physical bullion, ETFs, mining stocks, and collectible coins, while highlighting opportunities in mining companies and the importance of buying legitimate sovereign-minted products from reputable dealers due to counterfeiting concerns.

We discuss...

• Central banks have shifted from being net sellers of gold to major buyers, increasing demand for precious metals.
• Gold is increasingly viewed as a way for countries to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and avoid counterparty and sanctions risk.
• Gold has maintained purchasing power over the long term despite significant periods of volatility and consolidation.
• Precious metals markets can experience short-term price distortions because they are relatively small and susceptible to large speculative positions.
• Silver is more volatile and speculative than gold but has strong long-term industrial demand.
• A persistent physical supply deficit and the difficulty of increasing silver production could support higher prices over time.
• The gold-to-silver ratio has fallen significantly as silver has recently outperformed gold.
• Mining companies may offer significant upside because many remain undervalued despite strong cash generation from higher precious metals prices.
• Investors can gain precious metals exposure through physical bullion, ETFs, mining stocks, and collectible or graded coins.
• Sovereign-minted coins from established mints can offer advantages over refinery-made bars because of counterfeiting concerns and easier resale.
• Investors should work with established and reputable precious metals dealers when purchasing physical gold and silver.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-golden-opportunity-dana-samuelson-842

Have you ever wondered the secrets of how to determine the market's next move? Today we have the answers. We cover the latest market breakout, with the S&P 500 moving above a long trading range while the Nasdaq remained more neutral and the Russell 2000 showed signs of a potential bull trap. Investors can use support and resistance, trading volume, and confirmation to interpret breakouts while remaining cautious during the low-volume summer months. We also talk increased institutional buying, the limitations of relying on money-flow and positioning data, and how seasonal trading patterns can create unusual market moves. We shift to gold, silver, and Bitcoin, examining recent price action, central bank buying, speculative money flows, and why technical trends may be more useful than trying to identify a single reason behind market movements. Today we discuss...

• The S&P 500 broke out of its recent trading range, signaling a potentially bullish shift in the market.
• The Nasdaq remains range-bound while the Russell 2000 showed signs of a possible bull trap.
• How investors can use support, resistance, volume, and confirmation to evaluate market breakouts.
• Why summer trading can produce unusual market moves because institutional trading volume tends to be lower.
• The limitations of relying too heavily on institutional positioning and other market indicators.
• Gold's recent breakout and longer-term bull market were discussed alongside concerns about whether its rapid gains need time to consolidate.
• Silver noted with caution because of ongoing short positioning and potential price suppression.
• The bearish outlook for Bitcoin and suggested it could fall toward $37,500 before becoming more attractive.
• How speculative money rotates between Bitcoin, precious metals, energy, technology, semiconductors, and other sectors.
• July's positive market performance and conflicting valuation signals created uncertainty about the strength and sustainability of the current bull market.
• The extraordinary scale of the AI investment boom compared with previous historical investment manias.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-markets-next-move-841

Matt Morizio shares his journey to becoming a financial advisor and founder of Reconstructing Wealth after his professional baseball with the Kansas City Royals. We explore the parallels between sports, parenting, and personal finance, including raising a family of eight, the importance of taking action before feeling "ready," and why investing in health is just as important as investing money. Kirk and Matt also discuss how youth and professional sports have changed due to commercialization, the growing influence of money in athletics, and the challenges athletes face managing sudden wealth. We also examine what true financial freedom really means, as lasting wealth comes from developing a healthy relationship with money rather than simply accumulating more of it.

We discuss...

• Matt's journey from professional baseball to becoming a financial advisor and founder of Reconstructing Wealth.
• How getting released from baseball accelerated his transition into entrepreneurship and wealth management.
• The challenges and rewards of raising a family of eight children while building a business.
• Why Matt views investing in healthy food today as an investment that reduces future healthcare costs.
• Why waiting until you're "ready" to have children or start a business can keep people from ever taking action.
• The mental lessons learned from professional sports with those required to build wealth.
• How youth sports have become increasingly commercialized and expensive for families.
• Whether money and NIL deals are changing the culture and integrity of college and professional sports.
• Why early sports specialization can increase the risk of injuries for young athletes.
• The financial challenges professional athletes face after their playing careers end.
• Why many athletes struggle with sudden wealth despite earning millions of dollars.
• Why financial education is more valuable than simply handing money management over to an advisor.
• How developing the right mindset and identity is essential for building and preserving wealth.
• Why true financial freedom is about emotionally detaching from money rather than simply accumulating more of it.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/reconstructing-wealth-matt-morizio-840