Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a closer look at Estée Lauder’s turbulent turnaround, tracing the beauty giant’s fall from pandemic favorite to contrarian play. After years of strong growth, the company was hit by an inventory pileup, the collapse of China’s daigou shopping channel, and a broader slowdown in its most important market. In this episode, they explore whether the “Beauty Reimagined” strategy and the arrival of new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie can reignite growth through cost savings, better channel mix, and stronger appeal to younger consumers.

Daniel and Shawn debate how realistic a turnaround is, whether the risk/reward resembles Nike’s recent playbook, and what needs to go right for Estée Lauder to reclaim its former strength. They also touch on wider beauty industry trends, the role of R&D as a competitive moat, internal tensions within the Lauder family, and the growing strategic weight of China for global fashion and cosmetics brands.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

05:29 - How Estée Lauder built the beauty giant

13:42 - Why Estée Lauder’s business and stock fell so dramatically

27:22 - How Social Media and personal brands changed the beauty industry

14:03 - Why China played a major part in the company’s rise and fall

42:23 - How the family drama caused a management crisis

46:26 - How Estée Lauder plans to rise to the industry’s top again

55:08 - Whether Estée Lauder is attractively valued at its current levels

1:00:08 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add EL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke break down LVMH (ticker: MC), an iconic luxury goods empire with brands ranging from Louis Vuitton to Moët, Dior, Chandon, Hennessy, Tiffany, Bulgari, and Tag Heur, among others. It’s a powerful conglomerate built by one of the world’s richest men, Bernard Arnault, known as the “wolf in cashmere” for his ruthless consolidation of power in the luxury industry.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Arnault built the LVMH empire, what makes “true luxury” so special and different from other types of businesses, the parallels between LVMH and Berkshire Hathaway, what the backbone of this conglomerate is, whether there’s actually a backdoor way to buy LVMH shares at a 20% discount, whether the stock is currently fairly valued, plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

15:57 - How Arnault got his start and took control of LVMH.

20:56 - What inspired Arnault to build a luxury conglomerate.

24:05 - How LVMH benefits from economies of scale.

30:31 - Which brands drive business the most.

51:59 - What factors matter most in luxury purchases.

56:07 - What are the most important markets for luxury goods?

01:00:59 - Whether the backdoor way to buy LVMH shares at a discount is too good to be true.

01:08:03 - Whether LVMH is fairly valued and whether it’s added to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Daniel and Shawn step back for a mid-year review of the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, revisiting each holding to test the strength of their original theses and weigh what’s changed. From ride-hailing to beauty retail, this episode covers the full lineup: why Uber’s cross-sell flywheel and Waymo partnership reinforce its moat; how Alphabet’s latest earnings measure up against the growing threat of AI-native search; and why Reddit may succeed where Snapchat struggled, turning engagement into monetisation.

You’ll hear updates on Q1 earnings, commentary on management execution, and discussions on whether current valuations still offer upside or warrant trimming. They re-evaluate Airbnb’s evolving strategy as it expands into services and experiences, break down Ulta Beauty’s standout results, and revisit early convictions in new names like Nubank.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

03:14 - Why the Ulta Beauty position was being trimmed

17:47 - How Alphabet is holding up against AI competition

28:10 - Why Uber could benefit from autonomous vehicles

58:57 - How Airbnb overcomes regulatory hurdles and expands into experiences

1:06:17 - How Adobe used the AI revolution to strengthen its ecosystem

1:10:10 - Why Reddit might become more of a second Meta than a second Snapchat

1:20:46 - How Nike could overcome the recent headwinds

1:27:39 - Why initiating a position in Nubank is worth the risks

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahnke break down Smith & Wesson (ticker: SWBI), an iconic firearms manufacturer with 170+ years of history. Smith & Wesson is no compounder, though. It’s an okay business, at best, but Shawn and Daniel want to determine whether this often-overlooked stock is cheaply priced.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Smith & Wesson has navigated the volatile sales cycle in firearms, what factors can drive the biggest swings in firearms sales, whether Smith & Wesson’s juicy dividend is sustainable, the biggest political and legal risks facing this company, what famous investor owns the stock, how Smith & Wesson shares can help an investor hedge societal disruptions, and whether Smith & Wesson is attractively valued on a normalized earnings basis plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

02:47 - The historic origins behind this company that predates the Civil War.

06:12 - Why “Sin” stocks can offer attractive returns from discounted valuations.

10:54 - What drives Smith & Wesson’s business.

23:17 - How the company navigates a range of factors that can impact it, from regulation to litigation, that are largely beyond its control.

35:17 - How the company’s relocation of its headquarters has added to its financial stress.

46:11 - The biggest challenges of investing in a “mean reversion” bet like Smith & Wesson.

01:01:15 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add SWBI to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

01:05:38 - Why Smith & Wesson may be a hedge against societal disruptions.

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley turn their focus to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ticker: TSM) — the quiet engine powering nearly every device we touch and the global AI boom. Pioneering the pure-play foundry model, TSMC went from a government-backed experiment in the late 1980s to controlling more than 90 % of the world’s leading-edge chip production, fabricating Apple’s A- and M-series processors, Nvidia’s AI GPUs, and virtually every 3nm part on the planet.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Morris Chang’s radical bet rewired the semiconductor industry, why extreme scale and EUV mastery give TSMC a moat rival chipmakers can’t cross, how its Arizona and Japan fabs fit into a strategy shaped by China-Taiwan tension, and how wafer volumes, node mix, and multi-billion-dollar capex translate into free-cash-flow and ROIIC. Daniel and Shawn also debate the right way to price the ever-present geopolitical “wipe-out” tail risk, and ask whether today’s market price offers a margin of safety on what could be the most important company in the world.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

07:39 - How TSMC evolved from a government-backed project to a trillion-dollar company

16:10 - Where TSMC’s dominance comes from

31:27 - What moat protects TSMC’s business

39:54 - What the competitive landscape looks like

43:55 - Where future growth is coming from

49:45 - How geopolitical risk is impacting TSMC

1:03:25 - Whether TSMC is attractively valued at its current levels

1:09:18 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add TSM to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke break down Nubank (ticker: NU), a leading fintech company providing credit card, banking, and insurance services to millions across Latin America, with nearly 60% of Brazil’s adult population using one of the company’s products. Nubank’s success is a true David vs.Goliath story, overcoming a powerful banking oligopoly in Brazil to provide more accessible and lower-fee digital banking services to the masses, who had long been neglected by traditional banks.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Nubank grew to become one of Latin America’s largest companies with over 100 million users in just over a decade, how being a digital-first bank has given them huge operating cost advantages, why Nubank’s unit economics are so attractive, what key metrics to focus on when evaluating a banking business, and whether Nubank is attractively valued given its incredible growth prospects, plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

13:42 - Nubank’s inspiring David vs. Goliath origin story.

19:17 - How Nubank’s first credit card product spread like wildfire.

23:20 - Why the customer experience with Nubank is fundamentally different than with competitors.

25:00 - What makes David Velez such a special founder and CEO.

29:30 - How Nubank has used its low-cost moat to compound the advantages of its business structure and built customer loyalty by sharing those rewards with customers.

41:17 - Why Nubank’s growth story may only be just starting.

01:20:14 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add NU to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley break down Amazon (ticker: AMZN), one of the most transformative companies of the modern era — a business that started as an online bookstore and ended up reshaping global commerce, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure. From innovating retail logistics to building the backbone of the internet through AWS, Amazon has changed the way the world shops and interacts with technology — and it’s not slowing down. 

In this episode, you’ll learn how Amazon evolved from a retail disruptor into a multi-engine platform business, how AWS and advertising became its primary profit drivers, how the company is navigating massive AI investments and expanding into satellite internet with Project Kuiper, and whether the current valuation reflects the next leg of growth — plus plenty more along the way.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

1:27:56 - Whether Amazon is attractively valued at its current levels

1:29:29 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add AMZN to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke break down Shopify (ticker: SHOP), a leading e-commerce platform company enabling e-commerce merchants across the world to seamlessly manage nearly every part of their business in one place. Shopify has been locked in a power struggle with Amazon, as the two present distinct visions for the future of e-commerce: Amazon tries to pull merchants to its marketplace and to conform with its standardized shopping experience, while Shopify empowers merchants to manage their own websites that go direct-to-consumer.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Shopify started humbly as a snowboard website, what makes Shopify such a killer app, how Shopify and Amazon compete but also have found ways to strategically co-exist, why Shopify may have multiple moats working to its advantage, and whether Shopify is attractively valued given its compelling growth prospects, plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

05:30 - Why the enterprise software market was ripe for disruption.

10:50 - Shopify’s origin story as a simple snowboard website in Canada.

14:47 - How Shopify’s value proposition differs from Amazon.

36:42 - Why Shopify abandoned its logistics business just one year after making a major acquisition.

42:42 - How Shopify has responded to Amazon encroaching on its turf.

01:01:38 - What to make of Shopify’s share split and ownership structure.

01:12:28 - Why Shopify’s growth story may only be just beginning.

01:16:32 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add SHOP to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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SPONSORS

Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠sponsors⁠:

Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley break down Visa (ticker: V), the global payments powerhouse that acts as the invisible engine behind billions of transactions every day. Visa doesn’t issue cards, lend money, or handle customer accounts — instead, it operates the network that connects banks, merchants, and consumers in over 200 countries.

Whether you’re tapping your card for a coffee, shopping online, or sending money abroad, there’s a good chance Visa is taking a small slice behind the scenes. Visa is to the global economy what highways are to cars — an essential infrastructure layer that makes modern commerce move.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Visa evolved from a consortium of banks to a dominant public company, how it defends its massive competitive moat, where growth will come from beyond traditional card payments, whether emerging technologies like account-to-account payments pose a real threat, how to think about Visa’s valuation, plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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SPONSORS

• CFI Education

Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠

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HELP US OUT!

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke break down Adobe (ticker: ADBE), a leading software company providing end-to-end solutions for creative professionals, from design and creation to marketing and performance measurement. Through apps like Photoshop and After Effects, Adobe offers an industry-leading suite of productivity tools for creatives, including freelancers designers, Hollywood design studios, and everyone inbetween. Excel is to the financial world as Adobe is to the creative world, you might say.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Adobe grew out of a garage and became tangled with Apple early on, how the company transitioned to a cloud-based subscription model, whether AI risks to Adobe’s business are overstated, how Adobe is implementing AI into its tool, whether Adobe is as attractively valued as it seems, plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠here⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

00:43 - Adobe’s origin story and how it was created out of a garage.

07:24 - What were Adobe’s first few popular products and how Apple elevated Adobe’s business.

16:02 - Why Adobe transitioned to a subscription-based business model in 2013.

19:36 - Why the market has soured on Adobe’s otherwise wonderfully profitable and growing business.

24:40 - How Adobe is responding to Canva, Figma, and disruptions from AI.

39:32 - What Adobe is doing to keep the next generation of designers using its products.

01:04:50 - The biggest risks to Adobe’s continued dominance.

01:07:41 - Whether Adobe is attractively valued at its current beaten down levels.

01:16:22 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add ADBE to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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SPONSORS

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Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠Email⁠⁠

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HELP US OUT!

Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! 

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