Being a do-it-yourself investor can be both rewarding and challenging. In this episode, we explore the essential mindset and strategies needed to succeed in the long term.

Drawing from academic research, historical data, and decades of experience, this episode covers:

1. Why short-term returns are often just noise and how to focus on the bigger picture.
2. The importance of a 20-30 year horizon for small-cap value investments.
3. How to avoid emotional decision-making and set realistic expectations.
4. Insights into the performance of small-cap value vs. the S&P 500 over 25+ years.
5. The role of faith, patience, and discipline in building a successful investment portfolio.

Paul also provides a step-by-step guide to help investors analyze the numbers referenced in this episode. Follow these steps to compare small-cap value funds and the S&P 500:

Steps to Analyze Performance on Morningstar:

1. Open morningstar.com.
2. Enter DFFVX in the search box at the top of the page.
3. Open the Chart option located next to the Quote.
4. Select MAX next to the Start Date to view the full performance history.
5. One by one, enter the following ticker symbols into the Fund Chart Compare search box and hit return after each:

This process allows you to visualize and compare the performance of these funds over time and gain a deeper understanding of the data discussed in this podcast.

Whether you're 25 or 81, this episode is packed with actionable insights and encouragement to help you stay the course and achieve your financial goals.

 Listen now for expert advice and a fresh perspective on long-term investing!

Links that Paul uses in this podcast-

Bootcamp #1 - Biggest Decision of All: Stocks vs. Bonds

Avantis Quilt Chart

"Buy and hold investors don’t just win on average returns— they win by avoiding the behavioral landmines that sabotage long-term success.” Paul Merriman

In this podcast Paul addresses one of the most important investment decisions a do it yourself investor will make.

Paul opens the discussion with comments from a Forbes article from 2008 that discusses Warren Buffett’s market timing decision he made to get totally out of the market in 1969 and back aboard in 1974.

The podcast (with the help of Chatgpt, includes a list of 10 common reasons market timing doesn’t work for amateur investors.

1. Missing the best days

2. Emotional decision-making

3. Perfect timing is impossible

4. Higher costs and taxes

5. Volatility is high during recovery

6. Recency Bias

7. Focus on noise, not timing signals

8. Overconfidence

9. Loss of Compound Growth

10. Data shows long-term investing wins

Paul challenges AI that there are many emotional disadvantages with timing.

The most important performance and non performance hurdles:

1. Decision-making: Timing requires lots of work and buy and hold almost none.

2. Mistakes: Market timing suffers lots of mistakes and buy & hold rarely wrong in the long term.

3. Emotional Toll: Timing has lots of emotional challenges and buy & hold is more peaceful. 

4. Behavioral Risks: Timing has lots of behavioral risks and buy & hold is simple.

5. Time Commitment: Timing takes time and action and buy & hold is rarely touched.

6. Expenses: Costs and taxes are both lower with buy & hold.

7. Timers must be more resilient with many decisions being wrong.

8. Financial Results: A few timers may perform well but all buy & holders are likely to have “won”.

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April is Financial Literacy Month, and to help us celebrate we brought in a returning guest, Paul Merriman. Paul has been on the show before to discuss investment portfolios, but today he talks with us about some extraordinary strides he's making as a financial literacy advocate through his nonprofit, The Merriman Financial Education Foundation. We also share some of our favorite financial literacy resources.

RESOURCES MENTIONED ON THE SHOW🌐 Visit Catching Up to FI website

https://catchinguptofi.comPaul's Website

https://www.paulmerriman.comMerriman Financial Literacy Program at Western Washington University

https://financialliteracy.wwu.eduIGrad

https://www.igrad.com/Next Gen Personal Finance

https://www.ngpf.orgWhite Coat Investor

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.comThe John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacyhttps://boglecenter.net

TIMESTAMPS / CHAPTERS

00:00 📣 Introduction and Financial Literacy Impact

01:09 👋 Welcome and Guest Introduction

01:35 🤝 Paul Merriman's Nonprofit and Financial Literacy Story

02:33 💡 The Importance of Financial Literacy

06:59 🏫 Nonprofit Initiatives and University Programs

16:15 🏋️‍♀️ Bootcamp and Investment Decisions

18:07 🌐 Other Financial Literacy Organizations

22:09 🏛 State-Level Financial Literacy Education

25:55 ✨ Final Thoughts and Encouragement

31:27 🙏 Conclusion and Farewell

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This updated discussion of the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio highlights the advantages of equity asset allocation and worldwide diversification. The presentation was presented to members of the Washington State Society of CPAs.

At the end of the presentation Paul adds his list of 15 million dollar decisions that all investors will make in their lifetime.

Watch the video here

Join me on Catching Up to Fi l with Rick Ferri to discuss key investing topics like asset allocation and the pros and cons of small-cap value vs. total market funds.

TIMESTAMPS / CHAPTERS

00:00 ⛓️ Understanding Bonds and Young Investors

02:31 🌟 Introduction to Financial Literacy Titans

03:12 🎓 Paul Merriman's Financial Education Foundation

04:18 🧠 Rick Ferri and the Bogle Center for Financial Literacy

12:09 ⚖️ The Importance of Asset Allocation

23:11 🌍 Debating International vs. US Stocks

35:12 🗓️ Target Date Retirement Funds: Pros and Cons

45:55 📈 Exploring Small Cap Value Investing

49:34 🧩 Understanding Non-Traditional Index Funds

50:28 🔍 Small Cap Value Performance Analysis

52:56 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Generational Wealth and Portfolio Management

53:54 🧬 Diverse Value Factors in Investing

55:55 🚧 Challenges of Small Cap Value Investing

57:33 🧭 The Philosophy of Long-Term Investment Strategies

01:01:11 🧪 Debating the Evidence-Based Investing Approach

01:12:46 🛡️ The Importance of Staying the Course

01:22:05 🎤 Final Thoughts and Recommendations

In the left corner, we have Paul Merriman, the seasoned finance veteran weighing in at 183 pounds. In the right corner, Dr. Karsten Jeske, the scrappy newcomer at 208 pounds. The bell rings, and the small cap value debate begins.

This episode features a financial boxing match between two investment heavyweights with dramatically different perspectives. Paul Merriman champions diversification through the efficient frontier, which means adding small cap value to your portfolio. Dr. Karsten Jeska has “thrown cold water” on this approach, favoring simpler strategies like “VTSAX and chill.”

The stakes are high — we’re talking potentially millions of dollars in your retirement account over decades.

Merriman argues that history shows clear evidence for small cap value’s premium. From 2000 to 2009, small cap value outperformed the S&P 500 in all but one year, compounding at 10 percent while the S&P 500 returned negative 1 percent. He believes this pattern will continue, creating a powerful diversification effect when combined with broader market indexes.

Jeske counters that small cap value’s outperformance is mostly “front-loaded” in history, happening before anyone knew about it. Since 2006, small cap value has underperformed. He argues that once an advantage becomes widely known, it disappears in an efficient market. Adding small cap value might even be “di-worsification” — increasing complexity without improving returns.

The debate expands beyond small cap value to touch on:

• Active vs. passive investing strategies
• Market timing vs. buy-and-hold approaches
• Simplicity vs. complexity in portfolio construction
• The role of faith vs. evidence in investment decisions

While both experts disagree about small cap value’s future, they agree on fundamentals: invest early, stay invested for the long term, and understand that no one can predict markets with certainty.

What starts as a technical debate evolves into a philosophical discussion about evidence, probability, and the limits of our knowledge — all with millions of retirement dollars hanging in the balance.

Timestamps:

Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.

(0:00) Debate intro: small cap value vs index funds

(4:01) Merriman: small cap value offers premium returns

(9:40) Jeske: small cap value underperformed since 2006

(18:20) Historical performance data significance

(25:15) Stakes: difference of millions over time

(33:08) Diversification vs added volatility debate

(41:45) Risk-adjusted returns comparison

(49:08) Questioning true diversification benefits

(57:40) Value traps and actively managed funds

(1:05:08) Technology stocks vs value investments

(1:13:45) Data selection bias in studies

(1:19:40) Faith vs science in investment decisions

(1:29:20) Personal risk tolerance considerations

(1:36:08) Closing arguments on investment strategies

(1:42:08) Paula declares the debate a draw

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If a retired investor has the ability to use a flexible distribution strategy it will likely produce one of the best financial outcomes in retirement.

Before discussing flexible distributions Paul lists the reasons he believes that 99% of successful long term depends on defensive steps. After listing 18 defensive decisions he explains why flexible distributions are better than fixed distributions for those who have over said.

The presentation includes 16 distribution tables that can be found in this pdf for the presentation.

In each case Paul compares the difference in returns and risk between the fixed and flexible distribution strategies. The discussion compares returns and total distributions for two of the 9 sound investing portfolios: one using the S&P 500 and the other the U.S. 2 Fund Portfolio (50/50 S&P 500Small Cap Value).

Other links noted in the presentation:

Sound Investing Portfolios

The move from the accumulation to distribution period of an investors lifetime includes some very important decisions.

1. What asset allocation between equities and fixed income?
2. What combination of equity asset classes in the equity portion, as well as fixed income asset classes?
3. What amount of distribution will be made annually?
4. Will the payments be monthly, quarterly or annually?
5. Will payments be adjusted for inflation and how often?
6. Will the distributions be based on a fixed distribution with regular adjustments for inflation (the topic in this presentation) or on a flexible basis (the topic of the next segment)?

In this podcast Paul uses 15 slides to address the questions above. It is recommended the viewer print out the ⁠PP presentation  to make it easier to follow the numbers.

Many may find it is easier to follow the information on Paul’s video⁠ on the same topic.

If you have questions about the presentation please leave comment or question in the comment section of the video  or email ⁠[email protected]⁠.  For those sending an email please let us know the topic of the Boot Camp presentation.

Watch video here

Young and first time investors have to address a number of monumental decisions.  

• How much money to save for the future
• How much they should invest in equities and bonds
•  How much of the equities should be in large, small, value, growth, U.S. and international asset classes
• How much to increase the investment each year

This podcast/video helps the investor address those decisions.  For those listening to the podcast here is a link to the pdf of all of the tables referenced in the presentation.  He only focuses on a handful of tables but here is a link for those who want to review the entire set of tables.

Paul discusses the accumulation process from the viewpoint of an investor as well as a small business owner.

 If you have questions please send them to [email protected] or leave them in the comment section below.  

Here is the video link-

This is the 4th in a series of 9 Boot Camp videos/podcasts.  

The previous three segments covered :

1. Stocks vs. Bonds
2. The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio
3. Sound Investing Portfolios.

In this presentation Paul focuses on the differences between the risks and returns of different percentages stocks and bonds.  He also discusses one table that mixes different percentages of the S&P 500 and small cap value.Here are a couple of videos that focus on small cap value.

$13.83 Million? Yes Please! Paul Merriman’s Small Cap Value Strategy

The one asset class you must own