Friday 23rd February 2024
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Central bankers are being very elusive when it comes to the timeframe for cutting rates. The Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that he believes rates will come down this year, even though markets are expecting a move in June. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde says she wants more persistent evidence that inflationary pressures have dissipated, even though the German economy shank by 0.2 percent last year. And there’s the outside chance that he RBNZ will lift rates this week, although that seems unlikely. Meanwhile Australian CPI and retail sales this week will be waited for with anticipation by the RBA. So, when it comes to rate cuts, it won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. Trivia question: who said that? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for  the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and  the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Thursday 2nd May 2024
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The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a cautious ‘no’ to the rate hike. Listen in for the latest from the Fed and the latest data, including JOLTS from last night and Australia’s trade data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fed’s lack of progress

Wednesday 1st May 2024
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A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Skye, but we’ll know this time tomorrow.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bond yields push higher, heavy losses in equities a day out from the Fed

Tuesday 30th April 2024
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German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australia’s retail numbers will be the focus locally today.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A sticky last mile for Europe

Monday 29th April 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB   The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and there’s a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Waiting longer as inflation persists

Friday 26th April 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the renewables value chain, so we don’t simply extract minerals and ship overseas. There’s an enormous opportunity, says Alison, provided we recognise the strengths we provide and where in the chain we stop adding value. In this wide raging discussion they also look at the growth of sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen’s place in Australia’s future and the pitfalls of localised solar cell production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen

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