Monday 3rd March 2025

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There were two bits of news to drive markets on Friday, First, that press conference that left us wondering whether a peace deal in Ukraine could ever happen, But the gathering of European leaders on Sunday suggests peace could be brokered, at least between Zelensky and Trump. So. the dream has been kept alive. The other news was the signs of softness in the US economy, evidenced by lower spending, a massive increase the trade deficit and a complete turnaround in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast. But, as NAB’S Tapas Strickland explains, a lot of this could be driven by pre-tariff behaviour, particularly for the import of machinery earlier than usual. There are concerns, though, that the economy might be slowing more than expected, which has nudged rate cut expectations slightly higher. Supposedly tariffs on Mexico and Canada kick off today, but we look at one way it might be avoided or at least delayed again. Plus, why this is a busy week for Australian data.

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