Lagniappe

This week, we start by analyzing Rick Rieder’s comment that this is the most attractive and interesting investment opportunity that he's ever seen. We examine the cyclical nature of the economy, highlighting optimism for the bond and real estate markets. We finish with hopeful thoughts for America after a tragic week. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - Bad economic news can really mean good news

[05:13] - Oracle’s big move

[07:54] - The housing market is frozen

[13:28] - The cyclical nature of the economy

View Transcript

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week, we look at the recent job report, the Federal Reserve's expected actions on interest rates, and overall market dynamics, including the history-making influence of major tech companies. Our conversation also touches on the capitalism machine and how it relates to throwback fashion trends, individual stock investing challenges, and the need for diversification. We finish by celebrating an incredible time of year for the sports world.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - The new jobs report is out

[05:00] - What to make of markets trading at high valuations

[12:15] - What we’re experiencing with big companies is an anomaly

[15:12] - We’re entering the best time of the year for sports

View Transcript

Links

You’re a Boomer If You Wear Leggings: The Rise of Big Workout Pants

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Football is back! With that in mind, we’re going with a gridiron theme this week as we pull out our crystal ball and dig into what quarter of the bull vs bear game we’re in. We also explore the implications of the Fed shakeups on the economy, particularly regarding interest rates and housing, and look at the economic significance of population growth. And like every other podcast this week, we’ll touch on the futures of Taylor Swift and Arch Manning. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - Getting out our crystal ball for where the market goes from here

[10:13] - More shake-ups with the Fed

[13:20] - How population growth shapes the economy

[15:21] - Football is back! Are the Saints taking for Arch?

View Transcript

Links

Carlson: Is this 1996 or 1999?

Econ Browser: 41 states have negative q/q employment growth

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

While Jerome Powell and the Fed held their annual meeting, we discussed the implications of expected Fed rate cuts. We also delve into the dynamics of real estate in a post-COVID world with the rise of data centers, the challenges facing aging office buildings, and the demographic shifts that will shape future investment opportunities.

Key Takeaways

[00:16] - The Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole

[03:35] - The impact of Fed rate cuts on markets

[09:40] - Market valuations: small and mid caps are roaring back

[14:43] - Real Estate: data center construction + post-COVID office space

View Transcript

Links

Detrick: long waits between cuts (between 5 and 12 months) can be quite bullish

Data center construction to soon surpass general office construction

Investing in the inevitable tides of demographic change

Investing in longevity: the next frontier in retirement and health equity

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We begin this week by looking at inflation indicators like CPI, PPI, and tariffs. We also examine the impact of AI on employment, stagnation in the housing market, shifting consumer behaviors, and migration-altering taxation, and explore how these factors intertwine and influence the broader economic landscape.

Key Takeaways

[00:16] - Inflation Insights: CPI, PPI, Tariffs, and AI

[06:48] - History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes

[13:29] - Alcohol, nicotine, and subsidy-reliant industries

[19:04] - American housing/job mobility is stalling

[22:33] - Taxation trends and their effects on migration

View Transcript

Links

Roche: Tariffs can’t be a dominant factor in the inflation debate, yet

Goodbye, $165K Tech Jobs. Student Coders Seek Work at Chipotle

U.S. Drinking Rate at New Low as Alcohol Concerns Surge

The Financing Tool That Made Orsted a Wind Powerhouse Also Broke It

Nobody’s Buying Homes, Nobody’s Switching Jobs—and America’s Mobility Is Stalling

Blue States Hunt for Ways to Wring More Taxes From the Wealthy

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We dig into the latest jobs report that showed a significant decline in new jobs. We’ll also analyze the minimal effect that tariffs have had on inflation and the economy as a whole, and how the Fed can and should react with rate cuts. We’ll finish with a look at the recent run of IPOs, how they could indicate a return of speculative behavior, and why you should be cautious with including IPOs in a sound investment strategy.

Key Takeaways

[00:16] - Breaking down the latest job report and AI’s impact

[08:04] - The tariff effect

[14:56] - Recent IPOs indicate a return of speculative behavior in the market

View Transcript

Links

The Tariff Effect: Billions in Revenue but No Economic Earthquake

Trump Just Got a Fresh Shot at Bending the Fed to His Will

Circle Internet Group

Figma

Firefly Aerospace

Bill Gurley on the Figma IPO

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug Stokes start this week’s discussion with the European Union and South Korea trade deals. They also look at the massive windfall in profitability from the largest companies in America, which continues to buck the narrative that geopolitical uncertainty is going to push us into a downturn. Then, they explore inflation, housing, and the job market, particularly in light of the growing influence of AI. 

Key Takeaways

[00:16] - New trade deals

[03:04] - Meta, Microsoft, and how the business sector continues to shrug off geopolitical disruption

[06:34] - Geopolitical implications of technology

[11:29] - How the decline in rental income could affect inflation more than tariffs

[19:41] - AI is transforming the job market and the economy

View Transcript

Links

Tom Lee: 2Q25 EPS season strong with 83% beating, implying EPS YoY >12%

Repeat home sales and leading apartment rent indexes both point to lower shelter inflation ahead

Apartment List: The national multifamily vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% this month

Wall Street bull calls for 11% rally in S&P 500 to end 2025 as trade 'uncertainty' subsides

Wage growth is stuck in neutral as pay gains slow

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

In the midst of another all-time market high, Doug and Greg discuss the potential for a new cycle of exuberance driven by IPOs. They delve into the significant market cap of tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft, the incredible impact of AI on GDP growth and economic resilience, and the opportunities for small and mid-cap stocks. They also cover trade agreements, the relationship between interest rates and valuation, and how rate cuts could affect the economy.

Key Takeaways

[00:16] - Is the IPO window about to open again?

[05:25] - The incredible (economy-saving?) impact of AI

[06:08] - Will we see a resurgence for small and mid-cap stocks?

[11:58] - Macroeconomics and trade agreements

[14:47] - Speculating on the Fed Chair spat and interest rates

View Transcript

Links

The market cap weighting of Nvidia and Microsoft in the S&P 500 is 15%

AI Capex is Eating the Economy

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

The Stokes Brothers explore the rise of private credit as a trending asset class, its risks and rewards, and the implications of JP Morgan's $50 billion investment into the space. They also discuss the Fed Chair tit-for-tat, why we need an independent, formulaic process for setting rates, and the long-term outlook on inflation and housing.

Key Takeaways

[00:00] - Jamie Dimon & private credit

[04:39] - What is the risk in the private credit market?

[11:31] - Municipal bonds vs. private credit for taxable investors

[16:06] - How the news out of DC is affecting the market

[22:13] - A long-term look at housing and inflation

[17:13] - Interest rates, inflation, and Fed Chair spats

View Transcript

Links

Jamie Dimon Says Private Credit Is Dangerous—and He Wants JPMorgan to Get In on It

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug reflect on the recent tragedy in Texas before diving into the current state of the markets with a focus on the rise of tech giants like NVIDIA and their outsized impact. They explore big tech’s market concentration, productivity gains from AI, the IPO landscape, and improving public sentiment. They also detail real-time inflation, interest rates, and Fed Chair drama. 

Key Takeaways

[00:00] - Reflecting on the tragedy in Texas

[02:10] - NVIDIA tops $4 trillion in market cap (larger than all of Germany!)

[07:49] - Market concentration: AI company domination

[10:57] - AI bubble and IPOs

[14:58] - Vibe check: public perception and optimism

[17:13] - Interest rates, inflation, and Fed Chair spats

View Transcript

Links

NVIDIA's annualized revenue per unit

CIVIQS - National economic optimism poll

The Return of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy)

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.