Lagniappe

Lagniappe

By Stokes Family OfficeBusinessNewsTechnology
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Lagniappe episodes

  • The Economic Ripple Effect of Tariffs

    We’re back from Spring Break, and…there’s a lot to catch up on! We dive right into the market volatility driven by tariff-related news and its implications for the economy. We’ll discuss the overwhelming need for certainty, the issues that come with a lack of trade with China, how paring back tariffs would be a business tailwind, and the Fed’s plan to get back to business as usual. We’ll also examine the decoupling of Bitcoin and gold from traditional asset classes and draw parallels to similar, past economic events.



    Key Takeaways

    • [0:17] - Logistics and economic consequences of tariffs
    • [07:05] - The need for certainty
    • [14:59] - Dollar value, bond yields, bitcoin, and gold
    • [21:02] - Historical parallels


    • View Transcript



      Links

      • Ryan Peterson: Ocean container bookings from China to the United States are down over 60% industry-wide
      • The Long View: Cullen Roche - What Tariffs Mean for Your Portfolio
      • WSJ: Wealthy buyers are backing out of multimillion-dollar home deals
      • Election betting odds


      • Connect with our hosts

        • Doug Stokes
        • Greg Stokes
        • Stokes Family Office


        • Subscribe and stay in touch

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          • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


          • Disclosure

            The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


            Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

            25 min
          • Financial Planning in Times of Stress

            There’s only one thing to talk about this week. We discuss the recent volatility surrounding tariffs and the implications for investors. We explore historical trends during periods of uncertainty, the opportunities that arise in fixed income investments, and the potential impact of economic uncertainty on consumer behavior. Weeks like this emphasize the importance of financial planning and present the opportunity to reassess investment strategies.



            Key Takeaways

            • [0:17] - Recapping the last few days post-Liberation Day
            • [04:20] - This has allowed time to assess your current portfolio allocation
            • [07:35] - Fixed income offered a gift
            • [10:20] - What will the ramifications be from the past week?
            • [14:33] - Financial planning in times of stress


            • View Transcript




              Links

              • Detrick: Adding Liberation Day to a chart of Dow Jones + geopolitical events since 1900 doesn’t look so bad



              Connect with our hosts

              • Doug Stokes
              • Greg Stokes
              • Stokes Family Office


              • Subscribe and stay in touch

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                • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


                • Disclosure

                  The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.



                  18 min
                • Q1 Review, Liberation Day Fallout, & A Push For Diversification

                  In the aftermath of “Liberation Day”, we discuss the market reactions to the tariffs announced by the Trump administration, the implications for economic growth, and the importance of diversification in investment strategies. They analyze the current state of the markets, the fear index, and the potential effects of interest rate changes. The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to navigate volatility and maintain a disciplined approach to investing.



                  Key Takeaways

                  • [0:17] - Post Liberation Day fallout
                  • [04:17] - Understanding trade deficits, reciprocity, and tariff implications
                  • [06:23] - Can the yet-to-be announced tax and interest rate policy balance the risk?
                  • [08:34] - Will there be a walk-back?
                  • [09:39] - Looking at the Trump admin’s goal of pushing down interest rates
                  • [11:52] - Reviewing Q1 and continuing to push for diversification


                  • View Transcript



                    Links

                    • CNN Fear and Greed Index



                    Connect with our hosts

                    • Doug Stokes
                    • Greg Stokes
                    • Stokes Family Office

                    • Subscribe and stay in touch

                      • Apple Podcasts
                      • Spotify
                      • Google Podcasts
                      • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                      • Disclosure

                        The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                        Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

                        19 min
                      • Wrapping Up a Choppy Q1

                        Greg and Doug Stokes discuss a first quarter filled with volatility, focusing on the performance of the Magnificent 7 companies and how market corrections are normal and often lead to better valuations. We’ll analyze consumer sentiment and reflect on historical comparisons to previous market corrections. We’ll also discuss why we welcome periodic volatility, allowing investors time to assess their risk and diversification levels. 



                        Key Takeaways

                        • [0:17] - Wrapping up a choppy Q1
                        • [02:52] - The Mag 7 is down 15% so far this year
                        • [06:23] - Is this reminiscent of the Vibecession?
                        • [09:17] - Or does it feel like Q4 2018?
                        • [14:50] - The hype and demand bubbles of AI
                        • [18:37] - Why we welcome periods of volatility


                        • View Transcript



                          Links

                          • CNN Fear and Greed Index
                          • Allianz Life Study Finds Inflation and Tariffs Increasingly Worrying Americans
                          • University of Michigan’s closely watched Survey of Consumers
                          • Microsoft abandons data center projects


                          • Connect with our hosts

                            • Doug Stokes
                            • Greg Stokes
                            • Stokes Family Office

                            • Subscribe and stay in touch

                              • Apple Podcasts
                              • Spotify
                              • Google Podcasts
                              • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                              • Disclosure

                                The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                                Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.



                                22 min
                              • The Market Reacts to Fed Day

                                Coming off of Fed Day, we’ll talk about market reactions and the implications for inflation and interest rates. We also explore bond market dynamics, shifts in global market trends, and the resurgence of European markets. We then delve into the housing market insights, from what’s happening here locally in New Orleans to migration trends across various states, highlighting the unique challenges and opportunities in the current economic environment.



                                Key Takeaways

                                • [0:17] - Fed Day reactions and why we’re not seeing stagflation 
                                • [04:20] - Interest rates and bond market dynamics
                                • [8:06] - Shifts in global market trends
                                • [09:17] - What spot shipping rates mean for inflation
                                • [13:33] - The Mag 7 & why diversification is working
                                • [16:41] - Housing market and U.S. migration trends


                                • View Transcript




                                  Links

                                  • Truflation
                                  • MSCI Index performance
                                  • Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
                                  • Zillow downgrades its 2025 home price forecast
                                  • Time Out ranks New Orleans as World’s Best Food City
                                  • Uhaul growth states


                                  • Connect with our hosts

                                    • Doug Stokes
                                    • Greg Stokes
                                    • Stokes Family Office

                                    • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                      • Apple Podcasts
                                      • Spotify
                                      • Google Podcasts
                                      • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                      • Disclosure

                                        The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                                        Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

                                        25 min
                                      • Diversification Works

                                        In a week of sharp decline, we’ll discuss why market corrections are not unusual, volatility is expected, and diversified long-term strategies are key to managing risk. We’ll also talk about the recession narrative, analyze inflation/rate trends, and look at what levers the Fed can pull. We wrap up with a conversation on government efficiency initiatives and what they mean for the job market and the private sector.



                                        Key Takeaways

                                        • [01:10] - Understanding market corrections
                                        • [05:47] - Recession narratives and what the Fed can do
                                        • [10:16] - Diversification works
                                        • [11:52] - Updated outlook on inflation and rates
                                        • [16:00] - Eliminating gov’t spending + reallocating to the private sector
                                        • [21:06] - Musk, Tesla, and Magnificent 7 performance



                                        • View Transcript




                                          Links

                                          • JP Morgan: Average intra-year decline = ~14%
                                          • Historic S&P 500 corrections since 1965
                                          • Fastest market corrections since 1950
                                          • Market-implied US recession probability in the next year.. 20%
                                          • 25% of jobs added in the US economy over the past two years were government jobs, up from 5% in 2021 and 7% in 2022
                                          • Unemployment filings up 15% in DMV


                                          • Connect with our hosts

                                            • Doug Stokes
                                            • Greg Stokes
                                            • Stokes Family Office

                                            • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                              • Apple Podcasts
                                              • Spotify
                                              • Google Podcasts
                                              • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

                                              • Disclosure

                                                The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                                                Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

                                                26 min
                                              • Historical Context On Market Blips

                                                With the news swirling about S&P 500 declines, we dig into why market corrections are a normal part of financial cycles and why diversification is proving effective in the current environment. We’ll also dig into the performance of international markets, interest rate predictions, inflation vs. stagnation arguments, tariffs, jobs, and more.


                                                Key Takeaways

                                                • [00:17] - What’s going on with the market correction and are we concerned?
                                                • [04:51] - Corrections happen as part of a normal functioning market
                                                • [08:40] - A narrative change on the rate-cutting equation
                                                • [10:16] - Inflation and stagflation
                                                • [12:35] - Jobs report, tariffs, and market predictors


                                                • View Transcript



                                                  Links

                                                  • Average S&P 500 declines per year
                                                  • About ⅓ of the 5%+ selloffs are blips on the radar
                                                  • Tom Lee: buy now, huge rally coming
                                                  • 2025 returns by country
                                                  • 59% of investors expect stagflation. But stagflation is avoided 95% of the time.


                                                  • Connect with our hosts

                                                    • Doug Stokes
                                                    • Greg Stokes
                                                    • Stokes Family Office


                                                    • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                      • Apple Podcasts
                                                      • Spotify
                                                      • Google Podcasts
                                                      • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


                                                      • Disclosure

                                                        The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                                                        Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

                                                        16 min
                                                      • Mardi Gras Parades are Rolling While the Market Slows

                                                        Although we’re only 3-4% off market highs, investor sentiment has recently turned quite bearish, especially given a turbulent macro environment. We’ll look back on the first two months of the year, analyzing the fluctuations in the S&P 500, crypto, global tensions, and the reversal of inflation narratives. We’ll also examine why it feels like everything you thought you’d be bullish about under a Trump presidency, you should have been bearish about, and vice versa. Before we head out to more parades, we’ll finish by talking about the unknowns in the market and why it's important to maintain a sound strategy that's relative to your particular situation and your goals



                                                        Key Takeaways

                                                        • [00:17] - Why we’re seeing/hearing so much negative market sentiment
                                                        • [06:42] - China, Crypto, Trump & the financial theme for the first two months of 2025
                                                        • [10:20] - Ukraine, Russia, & how the market is reacting to geopolitical tensions
                                                        • [15:05] - The unknown is the major risk to the market 


                                                        • View Transcript



                                                          Links

                                                          • CNN Fear & Greed Index
                                                          • Roche: Trump policies are disinflationary
                                                          • Strazza: I'm Bearish Crypto


                                                          • Connect with our hosts

                                                            • Doug Stokes
                                                            • Greg Stokes
                                                            • Stokes Family Office


                                                            • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                              • Apple Podcasts
                                                              • Spotify
                                                              • Google Podcasts
                                                              • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


                                                              • Disclosure

                                                                The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                                                                Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

                                                                19 min
                                                              • Can the Bull Market Deliver Another 20% Year?

                                                                Throw me something, mister! It’s Mardi Gras time in New Orleans, and we’ll talk about what that means for the city’s culture and what a great family-friendly time it is. We then transition to a broader discussion on the surprising resilience of the Chinese economy and why a positive January and February often predict a strong year ahead. The conversation shifts to the cryptocurrency market, particularly meme coins, and the potential risks involved. We also hit on the demographic challenges in Europe and how these affect economic growth. Finally, we delve into the AI boom and who benefits from overhyped markets.


                                                                Key Takeaways

                                                                • [00:17] - Excitement for Mardi Gras here in New Orleans
                                                                • [04:00] - Stock market highs + the Chinese economy’s unexpected resilience
                                                                • [07:23] - Are we looking at back-to-back-to-back 20%+ years?
                                                                • [10:00] - The riskiness of Crypto and Meme Coins
                                                                • [14:40] - Demographic challenges in Europe may hinder economic growth
                                                                • [20:05] - AI, cannabis, and who benefits from overhyped markets


                                                                • View Transcript



                                                                  Links

                                                                  • Faber: Think differently about global diversification
                                                                  • Morgan Stanley Drops Bearish China Stocks Call, Lifts Target 22%
                                                                  • Detrick: A Higher January & February Could Mean the Bull Continues
                                                                  • Mapped: Europe’s Population Crash
                                                                  • Legalized pot turned out to be a stunningly horrible investment


                                                                  • Connect with our hosts

                                                                    • Doug Stokes
                                                                    • Greg Stokes
                                                                    • Stokes Family Office


                                                                    • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                      • Apple Podcasts
                                                                      • Spotify
                                                                      • Google Podcasts
                                                                      • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


                                                                      • Disclosure

                                                                        The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                                                                        Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

                                                                        28 min
                                                                      • A Valentine’s Week Look at Inflation, CPI, Small Caps, & Real Estate

                                                                        We begin this week by discussing the two biggest stories: inflation and tariffs. We’ll also delve into the performance of retail stocks, the influence of GLP-1 medications on fast food sales, and the performance of small caps and international markets. We’ll then dive into how shelter continues to drive CPI numbers and the contrasting dynamics of commercial and residential real estate markets.



                                                                        Key Takeaways

                                                                        • [02:25] - Tariff rates on other countries vs. those on the U.S.
                                                                        • [04:00] - The CPI story remains *mostly* about shelter
                                                                        • [07:23] - Counter-narratives to what's going to happen with a Trump presidency
                                                                        • [08:43] - The impact of GLP-1 medications on fast food
                                                                        • [12:58] - Small caps and International market performance
                                                                        • [12:08] - Current and future outlook on real estate markets



                                                                        • View Transcript




                                                                          Links

                                                                          • Weighted average effective tariff rates 
                                                                          • Roche: CPI in 60 seconds
                                                                          • No more cuts.. barring a recession
                                                                          • Small Caps are undervalued relative to the S&P 500
                                                                          • As buyers fail to show up, more homes are being pulled from sale


                                                                          • Connect with our hosts

                                                                            • Doug Stokes
                                                                            • Greg Stokes
                                                                            • Stokes Family Office


                                                                            • Subscribe and stay in touch

                                                                              • Apple Podcasts
                                                                              • Spotify
                                                                              • Google Podcasts
                                                                              • lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


                                                                              • Disclosure

                                                                                The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


                                                                                Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

                                                                                26 min

                                                                              About Lagniappe

                                                                              From the publisher's feed

                                                                              Lagniappe is a weekly podcast from Stokes Family Office. Join Doug and Greg each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and whatever else is on our minds!

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