The Bank of Canada held rates steady this week, but the tone of its statement revealed something important about the inflation challenge ahead. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, examines why raising rates during a period of oil-driven supply shock could do more harm than good. He explains how higher oil prices act as a tax on consumers, why the Canadian economy is already showing signs of fatigue and what this means for the probability of rate cuts before year-end. Plus, he shares insights on how a potential policy divergence between Canada and the U.S. could pressure the loonie toward the lower end of its projected range.