Lowy Institute

What went wrong with America's China strategy — and can it be fixed? 

In this Lowy Institute event, former US Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner traces America's long evolution from engagement to strategic competition. He delivers a pointed assessment of where the Trump administration has departed from that trajectory, and he sets out the implications for US allies, including Australia.

In conversation with the Lowy Institute's Sam Roggeveen, Dr Ratner also looks ahead to what a more serious US approach towards China would require.

This event was recorded at the State Library Victoria in Melbourne on Monday 16 February 2026.

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After barely a month, the year 2026 is already setting a bewildering geo-political pace. A presidential snatch-and-grab raid in Venezuela, anti-government riots in Iran, a fight over Greenland and a military upheaval in China have all buttressed Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney’s claim that the emerging new global order is a rupture, not a transition.

Hear from a panel of Lowy Institute experts as they examine what these diverse, dispersed events mean, both in and of themselves and for middle powers like Australia.

The panel was chaired by Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia; and feature Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program and Project Lead for the Asia Power Index; James M. Zimmerman, a Beijing-based lawyer, author, and former Chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China; and Andreas Radtke, a former German diplomat, and head of the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation in Australia.

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It has been just over a year since the Trump administration's dramatic cuts to America's foreign aid budget and the shuttering of USAID. With other major donors also slashing their aid programs — potentially causing 22 million additional avoidable deaths by 2030 — what does this mean for Australia's development efforts? A new OECD review of Australia's aid program provides a timely opportunity to assess the health and future direction of Australian development assistance.

The Lowy Institute’s Roland Rajah and Grace Stanhope are joined by Cameron Hill from the Development Policy Centre at the Australian National University and Bridi Rice, CEO of Development Intelligence Lab, to discuss the global aid landscape, Australia's comparative advantage in the region, and the tensions between short-term transactional wins and long-term transformational development.

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On 3 December, the Institute welcomed Senator Tim Ayres, Minister for Industry and Innovation and Minister for Science, to Bligh Street to launch the Australian Government’s National AI Plan. His speech outlined how we can harness the opportunities of AI, spread the benefits across society, and keep Australians safe.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a frank and impassioned speech at this year's World Economic Forum at Davos. He argued that in an era of great power competition, middle powers can no longer afford to maintain the fiction of a rules-based order. While never calling out President Trump by name, Carney highlighted the broader “rupture" in the global order.

Speaking with the Lowy Institute's Sam Roggeveen, Lydia Khalil discusses the value of rhetoric and dissects how Carney's remarks are being viewed in Canberra and other world capitals. While it has been much talked about, will Carney's speech shift how middle powers coordinate globally?

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More on this topic

• “Principled and pragmatic: Canada’s path”, Prime Minister Carney addresses the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
• “A rupture, not a transition”:Carney’s new order, Sam Roggeveen, The Interpreter
  
• Nato without America: Europe ‘thinks the unthinkable’, Ben Hall and Henry Foy, Financial Times

 

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Troy Bramston is a senior writer at The Australian and author of the new biography Gough Whitlam: The Vista of the New — the first comprehensive biography of Australia's 21st prime minister since his death in 2014. Drawing on newly opened archives and more than 100 interviews, Bramston offers fresh insights into one of the most consequential periods in Australian history.

Speaking with the Lowy Institute's Director of Research David Dutton in Sydney, Bramston examines Whitlam's opening to China, the end of White Australia, independence for Papua New Guinea, and the complexities of East Timor and the alliance with the United States. He explores how Whitlam's realpolitik approach transformed Australian diplomacy and why his legacy continues to shape our approach to the region today.

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Professor Cynthia Miller-Idriss is a globally recognised expert on violent extremism and prevention, based at American University in Washington, DC. She is the author of a new book, Man Up: The New Misogyny and the Rise of Violent Extremism, which explores how misogyny is driving a surge in extremist violence throughout the West.

Speaking with the Lowy Institute's Lydia Khalil, Professor Miller-Idriss explains the five tactics of misogyny in extremist movements, why Gen Z men are increasingly rejecting women's rights, and what a public health approach to prevention looks like in practice.

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As part of the Lowy Institute Recast series, we are republishing the best podcasts of 2025. In case you missed them the first time around or if you want revisit these engaging conversations, the Recast series has you covered.

US Senator Chris Coons joined the Lowy Institute's Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove at the Institute's Bligh Street headquarters for a special episode of Lowy Institute Conversations. They discussed US President Donald Trump's forthcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the first 200 days of President Trump's foreign policy, AUKUS, defence spending, and Senator Coons' optimism about the Democrats’ electoral prospects in 2028. 

This episode was first published 15 August 2025.

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As part of the Lowy Institute Recast series, we are republishing the best podcasts of 2025. In case you missed them the first time around or if you want revisit these engaging conversations, the Recast series has you covered.

Understanding Xi Jinping and what drives him has become a global cottage industry. According to US China scholar Joseph Torigian, one of the keys to understanding Xi Jinping is his father, Xi Zhongxun. How did Xi Senior influence Xi Junior? And what lessons can be drawn from the father for today’s policymaking? Torigian speaks with the Lowy Institute’s Richard McGregor about his new biography, The Party’s Interests Come First.

This episode was first published on 24 October 2025.

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As part of the Lowy Institute Recast series, we are republishing the best podcasts of 2025. In case you missed them the first time around or if you want revisit these engaging conversations, the Recast series has you covered.

In this episode, Edward Luce, Financial Times columnist and author of Zbig, a new biography of US President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, talks with Sam Roggeveen. They discuss Zbig’s stature as a foreign policy sage, his friendship and rivalry with Henry Kissinger, and what remains of the Washington foreign policy establishment that Zbig symbolised.

This episode was first published on 10 July 2025.

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