Send us Fan Mail

Alan Greenspan passed away on June 22nd. He was 100. Dubbed the “maestro” for his almost two decades as the Federal Reserve chair when the American economy flourished. He got help from his predecessor’s victory over unrestrained inflation and technological changes during the internet era that boosted productivity. Greenspan smartly relied on intuition and data analysis from information that he gathered from businesses, consumers, and investors. 

Read the entire July 2026 Market Observer here.

FOOTNOTES:

1. Source: Stevenson, Richard. (2026, June 22) Alan Greenspan, Fed Chairman Through Prosperity and Crisis, Dies at 100.
2. Source: rev. (2026, May 24) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Swearing-In Ceremony.
3. Source: Schleid, Taylor and Currie, Ethan. (2026, June 17) Fed Policy Monitor – There’s a task force for that.
4. Source: Timiraos, Nick. (2026, June 27) Kevin Warsh Invokes Alan Greenspan to Shrink the Fed—and Strengthen Its Chair.
5. Source: Kirsch, Jason. (2026, June 2) AI Spending Is Surging Faster Than Revenue And Markets Are Repricing.
6. Source: Smith, Colby and Romm, Toby. (2026, June 29) Supreme Court Victory for Fed Still Leaves It Vulnerable to Trump.
7. Source: Ramboll and Global Infrastructure Hub. Gordie Howe International Bridge (United-States – Canada).
8. Source: Kitching, Heather and Cochrane, David. (2026, July 10) Gordie Howe International Bridge to open July 27, Ottawa confirms
9. Source: Livengood, Chad. (2026, June 30) Why is the Gordie Howe bridge not open yet? It’s complicated.
10. Source: Antoneshyn, Alex. (2026, March 26) More housing inventory pushing developers to offer incentives like free mortgage payments
11. Source: Alini, Erica. (2026, July 4) Condo developers are offering big discounts in exchange for signing NDAs.
12. Source: Tal, Benjamin and Judge, Katherine. (2026, Feb 18) Canadian housing: Anatomy of a correction
13. Source: Michalski, Mark. (2026) Concerns regarding Toronto condos.
14. Source: Statistics Canada. Table 34-10-0145-01  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, conventional mortgage lending rate, 5-year term,

Send us Fan Mail

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) entered a new era in May as Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as Chair. Powell, who held the position since 2018, leaves the role following an up-and-down tenure. His record is highlighted by how he dealt with the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the inflation surge that resulted in its aftermath and his public clashes with the President. 

Read the full July 2026 Corporate Bond Newsletter here.

Send us Fan Mail

Oil markets were rocked following President Trump’s initial strikes on Iran. Global benchmark levels quickly rose over 60% in price, surpassing US$100/barrel for the first time since July 2022. As the U.S. and Iran grapple over the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil continues to whipsaw. Investors are actively assessing the length of the conflict, damage to infrastructure in the region, and the supply response from other areas globally.

The market is on a knife’s edge guessing where the next decision will land. Open the Strait and unlock a barrage of petroleum waiting to hit markets, and the price will likely plunge. Keep the Strait closed and threaten damage to regional infrastructure, and the price is sure to spike. The belief is that the current price is reflecting a binary outcome where oil will be either much higher, or much lower, depending on the outcome of the war. Nevertheless, there is little debate about the long-term impact of higher energy prices on inflation. The bond market is acknowledging this dire position. 

Send us Fan Mail

The financial and energy markets have run aground in the Strait of Hormuz. We and most knowledgeable experts had no idea that the perceived acclaim, ease and success of Trump’s Venezuelan adventure would lure him into trying his hand at Iran again. Our worries about eventual tariff driven inflation now seem quaint compared to what is going on with Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to the oil industry in the Middle East, neither of which seemed considered in potential Iranian responses to the attack by the U.S. and Israeli militaries.

SOURCES

1. Source: rev. (2026, January 6). Trump speaks after US strikes Venezuela and Captures Maduro.
2. Source: Faucon, Benoit. (2026, April 12). The U.S. Sank One of Iran’s Navies. The Other Still Controls Hormuz.
3. Source: Leary, Alex. (2026, April 12). Trump Says Oil Prices May Be ‘a Little Bit Higher’
4. Source: Reuters. (April 6, 2026). US service sector cools in March; price paid measure highest in 3-1/2 years

Send us Fan Mail

"The Blue Jays captured the hearts of Canadians this past season with an improbable run to the World Series. And while it ended with the heartbreak of a Game 7 extra-innings loss, the Jays wasted no time in their efforts to run it back, storming into the offseason with bold roster moves. Canadians are now gearing up for the upcoming Winter Olympics in February, where the return of NHL players to Olympic ice promises a thrilling showdown and a chance to reclaim hockey supremacy. All this evokes a sense of Canadian pride in the face of ever divisive issues. We are certainly operating in an environment of heightened uncertainty, though you wouldn’t know it from looking at financial market results."

Send us Fan Mail

Last year was a volatile one for the financial markets as unpredictable Donald Trump entered the White House in January. Expecting the returning President Trump to bring hot markets with his election, as in his first term, investors soon learned to their chagrin that he was serious about his “Beautiful Tariffs”. Markets then tanked, recovered and then soared when he dropped the worst of his tariffs. That, and a renewed Artificial Intelligence (AI) mania, ignited a buying frenzy. Seemingly everything that could be traded went up, with even crypto, gold and silver joining the financial market glee.

Sources:

1. Source: The Washington Post. (2026, January 11). Running deficits larger than during the Great Depression is reckless.
2. Source: Ward, Jasper. (2025, December 17). Trump says next Fed chair will believe in lower interest rates ‘by a lot’.
3. Source: Swanson, Ana. (2026, January 3). Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact?
4. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023, November 8). Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022.
5. Source: Choi, Matthew and Merica, Dan. (2026, January 12). After Venezuela, Trump eyes Iran.
6. Source: Atkins, Eric et al. (2025, November 30). Manufacturing meltdown.
7. Source: Craig Brown, Robert. (2015, March 4). National Policy.
8. Source: Smith, Fergal. (2026, January 2). Canadian factory downturn lengthens as new orders hit a three-month low.
9. Source: Senate Democrats. (2026, January 3). President Trump Discusses the Capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.

Send us Fan Mail

Fear and uncertainty moved aside this summer, and optimism is now abound. Central Bankers are cutting rates, equity markets are touching new highs, and the Toronto Blue Jays are headed to the World Series! In credit markets, we also continue to experience historically strong market conditions. 

Sources:

1. Ronalds-Hannon, Eliza and Weinman, Aaron. (2025, October 12). From Tricolor to Saks, Bonds are Now Crashing at Breakneck Speed. 
2. Nakamoto, Michiyo and Wighton, David. (2007, July 9). Citigroup chief stays bullish on buy-outs. 

Send us Fan Mail

We last left you in early July with the observation that the financial markets now seemed to thrive on and reward uncertainty. The equity and credit markets had plunged in March on the initial economic fears over the Trump tariffs and then rebounded joyfully in April when Trump variously delayed and fiddled with his tariff strategy that had threatened to burn the U.S and global economy.

Sources:

1. Source: Kirby, Jason. (2025, October 4). U.S. tariff revenue piles up as Canada abandons tit-for-tat trade war approach.
2. Source: Chase, Steven. (2025, October 2). LeBlanc hopes to make progress on steel, aluminum tariff relief before USMCA review
3. Source: Chase, Steven et al. (2025, October 7). Ahead of talks with Carney, Trump says his tariffs are working.

Send us Fan Mail

Interest rates have been on the rise since the end of the first quarter, particularly in the long-end of the curve. From March 31st until time of publication, Canadian long bonds have risen 66 basis points (bps) while their American counterparts are up 44 bps, translating into price declines of 13% and 7%, respectively. 

Sources: 

1. Fool, Motley. (2025, May 22). The U.S. Government’s Credit Rating Just Got Downgraded for the Third Time Since 2011. History Says the Stock Market Will Do This Next.

Send us Fan Mail

The theme of Canso's previous April 2025 Market Observer was that only a fool would try to predict what would happen to the financial markets and the global economies after Donald Trump declared his Tariff War on the World. The more expertise you possessed, the less you were probably able to forecast the actual outcome. As they say, it’s not over until it’s over but rising equity markets and tightening credit spreads weren’t most experts’ first choice, but that’s what has happened. 

Sources:

1. Source: Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. (2025, April). April 2025 Market Observer.
2. Source: Burgess, Mark. (2025, July 4). Who cares about uncertainty anyway?
3. Source: Boggioni, Tom. (2025, July 5). ‘It’s all fake’: White House insider admits Trump’s trade war is just for show.
4. Source: McCreesh, Shawn. (2025, Feb 28). ‘This is going to be great television’: Trump sums up his showdown with Zelensky.
5. Source: Blanchfield, Mike and Hawkins, Ari. (July 6, 2025). In tech tax ‘cave,’ Trump and Carney may have both gotten what they wanted.
6. Source: Rjoseph1. (June 3, 2018). Trudeau calls tariffs ‘insulting’ while Trump aide labels it as ‘family quarrel’.
7. Source: Aiello, Rachel. (May 14, 2025). Canada’s new housing minister doesn’t think prices need to come down.
8. Source: CNC News. (Dec 16, 2024). Read Chrystia Freeland’s letter of resignation from Trudeau’s cabinet.