Lysander Audio

Send us Fan Mail

Trade tensions between Canada and the United States re-emerged over the summer as efforts to reach a broader trade agreement ultimately broke down. While both sides spent weeks at the bargaining table, discussions stalled over issues ranging from autos and dairy to alcohol and market access. What began as a debate over tariffs evolved into a broader dispute over policies that Canada considers central to its economic sovereignty, cultural interests, and national priorities. Ottawa argued that Washington’s demands would require significant concessions while offering limited tariff relief in return, while the U.S. maintained that existing Canadian policies unfairly disadvantaged American producers. The impasse culminated in the United States imposing new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian products in August, prompting Canada to respond with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on approximately C$27.6 billion of U.S. imports.1 By quarter-end, relations remained strained with no clear path to a near-term resolution.

Read the full October 2026 Corporate Bond Newsletter here.

1. Source: Breuninger, Kevin and Reid, Jenni. (2026, September 8) Canada’s retaliatory tariffs worth CA$27.6 billion take effect as trade rift with U.S. deepens.
2. Source: FiscalData.Treasury.gov (2026, October 26) Debt of the Penny.
3. Source: The White House (2026, September 10) Trump Dividend: America Is Winning — and Americans Should Win With It.

Send us Fan Mail

AI investment is expected to be the largest sectoral investment in the U.S., surpassing other major projects such as the fibre network for internet and railroads. It is primarily being funded by debt and led by hyperscalers such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. Hyperscalers provide cloud computing and data management services to organizations that require large-scale data processing and storage.

We have identified over US$3 trillion of spending by hyperscalers on leases and purchase commitments. These companies are using complex structures and off-balance sheet arrangements to raise funds.

Read the full Market Observer here.

1. Source: Keynes, John Maynard. (1936, February) The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
2. Source: Güldoğan, Diyar. (2026, September 30) Anthropic CEO highlights AI’s benefits and risks after White House meeting.
3. Source: Ansari, Saddique. (2026, August 20) Marginal Efficiency of Capital: Definition and How It Works.
4. Source: Fontanella-Khan, James et al. (2026, October 7) Blue Owl to launch ‘big push’ into insurance.
5. Source: Timiraos, Nick. (2026, August 3) Why Bessent Is Leaning on the Fed to Help Prop Up Japan’s Currency.
6. Source: Goldfarb, Sam. (2026, August 19) Bessent Leans Into His Role as America’s Bond Trader in Chief.
7. Source: Pringle, Eleanor. (2026, September 11) ‘If the Bloomberg Terminal bros are unhappy with what I’m doing, that’s too bad’: Bessent says he’ll continue ‘ignoring the noise’
8. Source: Druckenmiller, Stanley F. (2026, August 24) Let the Bond Market Speak.
9. Source: Rappeport, Alan. (2026, October 4) Rebuked by Bond Market, Bessent Says ‘House’ Does Not Always Win.

Send us Fan Mail

Alan Greenspan passed away on June 22nd. He was 100. Dubbed the “maestro” for his almost two decades as the Federal Reserve chair when the American economy flourished. He got help from his predecessor’s victory over unrestrained inflation and technological changes during the internet era that boosted productivity. Greenspan smartly relied on intuition and data analysis from information that he gathered from businesses, consumers, and investors. 

Read the entire July 2026 Market Observer here.

FOOTNOTES:

1. Source: Stevenson, Richard. (2026, June 22) Alan Greenspan, Fed Chairman Through Prosperity and Crisis, Dies at 100.
2. Source: rev. (2026, May 24) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Swearing-In Ceremony.
3. Source: Schleid, Taylor and Currie, Ethan. (2026, June 17) Fed Policy Monitor – There’s a task force for that.
4. Source: Timiraos, Nick. (2026, June 27) Kevin Warsh Invokes Alan Greenspan to Shrink the Fed—and Strengthen Its Chair.
5. Source: Kirsch, Jason. (2026, June 2) AI Spending Is Surging Faster Than Revenue And Markets Are Repricing.
6. Source: Smith, Colby and Romm, Toby. (2026, June 29) Supreme Court Victory for Fed Still Leaves It Vulnerable to Trump.
7. Source: Ramboll and Global Infrastructure Hub. Gordie Howe International Bridge (United-States – Canada).
8. Source: Kitching, Heather and Cochrane, David. (2026, July 10) Gordie Howe International Bridge to open July 27, Ottawa confirms
9. Source: Livengood, Chad. (2026, June 30) Why is the Gordie Howe bridge not open yet? It’s complicated.
10. Source: Antoneshyn, Alex. (2026, March 26) More housing inventory pushing developers to offer incentives like free mortgage payments
11. Source: Alini, Erica. (2026, July 4) Condo developers are offering big discounts in exchange for signing NDAs.
12. Source: Tal, Benjamin and Judge, Katherine. (2026, Feb 18) Canadian housing: Anatomy of a correction
13. Source: Michalski, Mark. (2026) Concerns regarding Toronto condos.
14. Source: Statistics Canada. Table 34-10-0145-01  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, conventional mortgage lending rate, 5-year term,

Send us Fan Mail

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) entered a new era in May as Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as Chair. Powell, who held the position since 2018, leaves the role following an up-and-down tenure. His record is highlighted by how he dealt with the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the inflation surge that resulted in its aftermath and his public clashes with the President. 

Read the full July 2026 Corporate Bond Newsletter here.

Send us Fan Mail

Oil markets were rocked following President Trump’s initial strikes on Iran. Global benchmark levels quickly rose over 60% in price, surpassing US$100/barrel for the first time since July 2022. As the U.S. and Iran grapple over the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil continues to whipsaw. Investors are actively assessing the length of the conflict, damage to infrastructure in the region, and the supply response from other areas globally.

The market is on a knife’s edge guessing where the next decision will land. Open the Strait and unlock a barrage of petroleum waiting to hit markets, and the price will likely plunge. Keep the Strait closed and threaten damage to regional infrastructure, and the price is sure to spike. The belief is that the current price is reflecting a binary outcome where oil will be either much higher, or much lower, depending on the outcome of the war. Nevertheless, there is little debate about the long-term impact of higher energy prices on inflation. The bond market is acknowledging this dire position. 

Send us Fan Mail

The financial and energy markets have run aground in the Strait of Hormuz. We and most knowledgeable experts had no idea that the perceived acclaim, ease and success of Trump’s Venezuelan adventure would lure him into trying his hand at Iran again. Our worries about eventual tariff driven inflation now seem quaint compared to what is going on with Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to the oil industry in the Middle East, neither of which seemed considered in potential Iranian responses to the attack by the U.S. and Israeli militaries.

SOURCES

1. Source: rev. (2026, January 6). Trump speaks after US strikes Venezuela and Captures Maduro.
2. Source: Faucon, Benoit. (2026, April 12). The U.S. Sank One of Iran’s Navies. The Other Still Controls Hormuz.
3. Source: Leary, Alex. (2026, April 12). Trump Says Oil Prices May Be ‘a Little Bit Higher’
4. Source: Reuters. (April 6, 2026). US service sector cools in March; price paid measure highest in 3-1/2 years

Send us Fan Mail

"The Blue Jays captured the hearts of Canadians this past season with an improbable run to the World Series. And while it ended with the heartbreak of a Game 7 extra-innings loss, the Jays wasted no time in their efforts to run it back, storming into the offseason with bold roster moves. Canadians are now gearing up for the upcoming Winter Olympics in February, where the return of NHL players to Olympic ice promises a thrilling showdown and a chance to reclaim hockey supremacy. All this evokes a sense of Canadian pride in the face of ever divisive issues. We are certainly operating in an environment of heightened uncertainty, though you wouldn’t know it from looking at financial market results."

Send us Fan Mail

Last year was a volatile one for the financial markets as unpredictable Donald Trump entered the White House in January. Expecting the returning President Trump to bring hot markets with his election, as in his first term, investors soon learned to their chagrin that he was serious about his “Beautiful Tariffs”. Markets then tanked, recovered and then soared when he dropped the worst of his tariffs. That, and a renewed Artificial Intelligence (AI) mania, ignited a buying frenzy. Seemingly everything that could be traded went up, with even crypto, gold and silver joining the financial market glee.

Sources:

1. Source: The Washington Post. (2026, January 11). Running deficits larger than during the Great Depression is reckless.
2. Source: Ward, Jasper. (2025, December 17). Trump says next Fed chair will believe in lower interest rates ‘by a lot’.
3. Source: Swanson, Ana. (2026, January 3). Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact?
4. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023, November 8). Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022.
5. Source: Choi, Matthew and Merica, Dan. (2026, January 12). After Venezuela, Trump eyes Iran.
6. Source: Atkins, Eric et al. (2025, November 30). Manufacturing meltdown.
7. Source: Craig Brown, Robert. (2015, March 4). National Policy.
8. Source: Smith, Fergal. (2026, January 2). Canadian factory downturn lengthens as new orders hit a three-month low.
9. Source: Senate Democrats. (2026, January 3). President Trump Discusses the Capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.

Send us Fan Mail

Fear and uncertainty moved aside this summer, and optimism is now abound. Central Bankers are cutting rates, equity markets are touching new highs, and the Toronto Blue Jays are headed to the World Series! In credit markets, we also continue to experience historically strong market conditions. 

Sources:

1. Ronalds-Hannon, Eliza and Weinman, Aaron. (2025, October 12). From Tricolor to Saks, Bonds are Now Crashing at Breakneck Speed. 
2. Nakamoto, Michiyo and Wighton, David. (2007, July 9). Citigroup chief stays bullish on buy-outs. 

Send us Fan Mail

We last left you in early July with the observation that the financial markets now seemed to thrive on and reward uncertainty. The equity and credit markets had plunged in March on the initial economic fears over the Trump tariffs and then rebounded joyfully in April when Trump variously delayed and fiddled with his tariff strategy that had threatened to burn the U.S and global economy.

Sources:

1. Source: Kirby, Jason. (2025, October 4). U.S. tariff revenue piles up as Canada abandons tit-for-tat trade war approach.
2. Source: Chase, Steven. (2025, October 2). LeBlanc hopes to make progress on steel, aluminum tariff relief before USMCA review
3. Source: Chase, Steven et al. (2025, October 7). Ahead of talks with Carney, Trump says his tariffs are working.