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Central banks have created far more money than necessary for actual economic activity and the result is the highest inflation in 40 years. Interest rates are up, and the financial markets have shuddered, shattered and fallen precipitously in price. Listen here in the July Market Observer.

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Looking at the financial market returns for the third quarter and year-to-date 2022, there was no obvious place to hide as all asset classes suffered. The carnage in fixed income markets is the worst seen in most of our lifetimes.

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After vanquishing the Evil Inflator and banishing him to the far regions of the Yield Universe over 40 years ago, the Interest Rate League has been called back into action! Listen more in the December Market Observer.

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Have central bankers done enough to get inflation under control? We believe that monetary policy and the credit cycle are powerful forces, but we suspect that things on the inflation front will be a lot more difficult than the fashionable market crowd suspects.

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The year began with swift optimism. Equity markets quickstepped higher, while credit spreads swung tighter. Buyers lined up to purchase new bonds from both investment grade and non-investment grade issuers. In sequence, investors who were knocked down by one of the worst years of their careers bounced back up and danced.

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We continue to see that inflation hopes are springing eternal in the world’s bond markets in the Spring of 2023. The bond market is moving manically between elation that nagging inflation has finally been vanquished, and fears that it has not. It depends on the day, the hour, or even the minute after an “important number” is released, but bond traders continue to focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. Even after the plunge in bond yields the seizure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the worries about Credit Suisse, yields are still up considerably in the past year.

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The recent rise in Canadian bond market yields is something that bond investors have seldom seen in their professional lifetimes, and never for a sustained period. After hitting generational lows from 2010 to 2020 when central bankers became enamoured with ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and QE (Quantitative Easing), there was nowhere to go but up for bond yields!

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The first quarter financial market bruising exploded into full blown carnage by mid-year as second quarter returns pushed deeper into negative territory. Several markets recorded double digit losses, as investors fled the riskiest assets.