Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

In spite of these dire facts and likely projections, because the Fed has pushed so much money into the system, giving Airbnb a sky-high valuation on day one, and because of the vaccine - nothing is going to come down.

Equites are looking through the winter at the rebound that will come in the summer from economic activity snapping back.

The stock market is quite literally vaccinated from the covid crisis. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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Bad Virus News Wins Georgia

I expect that on January 5th the news will be so bad about the pandemic across the country that voters are going to say – No, we are not going to support a party whose President said covid was all going away, was protected in the Senate, and who did not move on covid relief until they had to for their own political interests. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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In summary, the US dollar’s value is determined by S - Social assessment (class and race divisions) which is primarily determined by its G - Government assessment (capability and leadership).

Investment and Trading Plan

If a surprise event comes up - like a bad ending to the war in Afghanistan - that leads to protests in the US and a decline in the Social assessment, then the US dollar is a solid short. If other bad Government actions/decisions drives Social lower, then the USD is a very solid short.

Conversely, if Joe Biden maintains strong social cohesion and pulls the country together after Mr. Trump leaves office with a solid plan that the country buys into, then the dollar is all set to be steady to up. In MacroESG speak, if strong G leads to steady to strong S - then the USD is a buy. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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I am pleased to announce that MacroESG is now the research product of Sustainability Arbitrage LLC, a company that I founded. Macroesg.com will be the research portal for Sustainability Arbitrage.

I believe that a significant surprise event likely to happen in 2021 will be the massacre by the Taliban of mid-level and low-level collaborators in Kabul, Afghanistan. I have not seen this idea stated anywhere and as it is so obvious – it leads me to believe that this could be a surprise with power in the markets. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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Bet big on policy changes that ignite paradigm shifts. The best ideas are clear wins based on clear incentives to people in power: The less obvious, the better.

Trade the spread between policy change and emotionalism. Betting on policy change is a lot more predictable than emotionalism: Determines risk-reward.

Analyze the drivers of global power dynamics. Markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future: Try to understand the Deep Game. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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“If Pope Francis reaches out to other leaders of major religions and encourages them to join, the Council for Inclusive Capitalism could build an alliance large enough around the world together with businesses and investors that could push through systemic transformations required to meet the challenges of our time - particularly with the arrival of the Biden Administration. A watershed moment!” @gregbeier #macroesg www.macroesg.com

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Macro ESG made a high conviction call on June 14th that Joe Biden would win the election with clear, sensible reasons (hence, the bullseye graphic above).

Macro ESG then went on to lay out an investment plan that would work in a Biden administration and beyond.

Macro ESG has taken the liberty to simply duplicate the original piece from June 14, 2020 below.

Please click this link to the Wayback Machine at Internet Archive to verify. www.macroesg.com #macroesg #gregbeier

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Simple – Jack Ma threatened the systems of patronage that are at the heart of the Chinese banking system.

When he threatened to disrupt the entire financial system,

he threatened everyone who either controls the banks

or depends on the banks for their survival.

As China may very well be a house of cards of leverage,

Jack Ma’s statements ultimately threatened the very stability of China itself. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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The Presidency

At 264 Electoral College votes, if Joe Biden wins Nevada tomorrow (which Hilary Clinton won in 2016), then Mr. Biden is the President.

The Senate

The Senate is still winnable via Georgia run-offs in January and worsening pandemic. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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Buy dollars on dips with tight stops if Mr. Biden is on track to win the election.

Sell dollars on rallies with tight stops if Mr. Trump is on track to win the election.

Buy RMB and Chinese government debt - only invest what you can afford to lose as the entire investment could get locked up in unexpected military and diplomatic machinations. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

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