Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

The states with the highest turnouts tells an interesting story of what is really happening:

108.3% Texas

90.8%. Florida

95%. North Carolina

86.5% Arizona

89.6%. Tennessee

As I have written in Biden Wins it with Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, these above states may be about to flip to the Democrats - locking in Joe Biden’s presidency without any doubt - and bringing in Texas and Tennessee to the Democratic side. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

For long-only investors, exit the platform tech names that now account for about one-fifth of the S&P500’s market cap.

For long-short investors, time to think about which pairs make sense in the new world that is coming with the Trump loss. I’ll put a few ideas together and roll them out when I’ve conviction in them.

The next bull market will not be about GOOG, FB, AAPL, AMZN. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

The Republican Senators commitment to no new fiscal stimulus plan is driving the equity market lower, particularly as the coronavirus wave picks up in Europe and the US.

A lower equity market will hurt support for Republican candidates, as many Republicans planned to vote on Election Day.

The Biden win will secure a seismic shift in the US towards a sustainable future, bringing much of the world with it. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

The Republican Senators commitment to no new fiscal stimulus plan will drive the equity market lower.

A lower equity market will hurt the median voter and will drive down support for Republican candidates.

This will push yields lower in US government bonds and create fait accompli for Biden’s win amongst institutional investors who will treat the new administration with great relief. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

The next wave of the virus is starting to hit the northern hemisphere.

While the world is better prepared, the infection levels are likely to be greater than during the earlier wave. Please see the charts of projections of deaths and infections from the respected (and to date accurate forecasters) at the University of Washington at Seattle.

For long only investors, it’s a good time to go to cash - particularly with the major indices trading around all tIme highs.

Overall, investors and the public at large do not seem to realize how bad that this is going to get which means that there is a shock coming to the system. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

Actionable Ideas:

Keep a sharp eye on the RMB, the Korean won, the Taiwanese dollar, the Philippine peso, and the Malaysian ringgit.

Similarly, monitor the large non-bloc nations of India, Japan, Indonesia, and Australia.

Pay close attention to statements from China seeking to tighten the bloc and harm non-bloc states like China’s threat today that it would not buy coal from Australia. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

Goldman’s US dollar view is wrong on a Joe Biden win and the vaccine. Why?

The US dollar weakened under Trump’s divisive leadership. Logic suggests it would therefore rally on the US coming together.

Biden’s decades of bipartisan experience and bipartisan support would translate to a stronger dollar (barring, of course, more civil disturbances from police shootings).

Dr. Anthony Fauci says that broad availability of a vaccine may not be possible until the 2nd quarter of next year - at the absolute earliest.

There is far too much vaccine optimism already priced into the markets, leaving a downside surprise more likely than upside. www.macroesg.com #macroesg

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

In areas of high Trump support, I’ve noticed substantially higher disregard for wearing masks in enclosed public areas.

This combined with higher obesity rates as well as weaker public health care systems are creating a perfect storm for an acceleration of the pandemic in these areas.

If infections rise in Trump areas before the election, this could push the market lower and push the Republicans to the table to meet Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

A US stimulus deal would be bullish for global equites. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

The recent rise in US government bond yields on the longer end (7 to 30 years) indicates investors are already buying into the Biden win and $2+ trillion of green infrastructure spend (I was completely wrong here, expecting the Long Bond to fall to a zero yield {pls see Trump Leads the US to a New Low in Global Norms} in a rush to safety during a highly contested election that looks less likely) which has also brought a firming of the USD too.

As the House of Representatives prepares to take on the “platform” technology stocks (as covered in Macro ESG here and here, a big topic that will absorb several pieces shortly), it’s a good time to diversify away from the liquidity-fueled names. Whenever Trump says he’ll do a stimulus deal and the market goes up – sell a bit of the old portfolio and when he next says that the deal is off – use the dip to buy. Use the see-saw of Trump’s strategy to get better average prices.

Also noticeable is the solid performance of the RMB as predicted in China Builds Investment Alliances with Oil Suppliers via Rising RMB + Equities as US Squabbles and will be a key theme of 2020 – go with it. China is strong and getting stronger – the next round of political showdowns isn’t going to start until after the Biden inauguration. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

Following the Dictator’s Handbook, to show strength, President Trump made a big return to the White House last night in a last-ditch effort to garner media attention.

Equities and oil are a short as Trump seeks to motivate his base to get out the vote through fomenting fear and bad news via declaring that the stimulus deal is off until after he wins the election. If the market falls out of bed, Trump will hit the breaks through declaring the stimulus talks are back on.

As this is a weak, easily reversible decline, invest your time in putting together a Green Infrastructure Boom portfolio to own for the next 3-5 years.

Closely watch developments in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona to determine the fate of the election being decisive for Biden or not. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier

---

Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message