Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

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Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier episodes

  • IMF Just Launched the Global Green Infrastructure Boom
    The IMF today threw off the shackles of caution and encouraged governments to take on debt and pursue green infrastructure development.
    Green bonds are going to become core institutional holdings to fund this leap.
    The hydrocarbon business is about to collapse - transfer payments are going to be essential to ensure that these workers can transition to the new world, lest political and social problems arise.
    The era of Collective Action Clauses (“CAC’s”) that tie-up restructurings are on the way out as investors are seeking smarter terms. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @macroesg @gregbeier
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    8 min
  • What Happens if Trump Gets Really Sick
    If Donald Trump becomes intubated or dies from COVID-19, then it is likely that:
    Trump’s underlings and the Republican Party will quickly abandon him and his party of one ethos.
    The election: Republican Senators in weak seats will likely defect to the Democrats, and
    Seek to quickly approve a stimulus deal which would be very bullish for the the US stock market. www.macroesg.com @macroesg #macroesg
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    8 min
  • Trump Will Lose
    The US dollar will trade inversely to President Trump’s fortunes.
    If the election isn’t resolved through an overwhelming win for Biden on election night like I expect, get short the US dollar until the Supreme Court resolves the scenario.
    If Donald Trump starts to really slump in the polls, then look to get short the US dollar as he’ll likely engage in destabilizing activities to revive his flailing bid.
    If Donald Trump is unable to carry on the election because of the coronavirus, then the US dollar is a buy.
    www.macroesg.com #macroesg @macroesg
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    9 min
  • Macro ESG - New Developments
    I just spent a month using a Bloomberg intensively to see if it could do the trick to help with Macro ESG.
    And it didn’t work.
    Why? Specifically, the data sets that are required to think about Macro ESG are varied and intense. For example, I was doing an analysis of Angela Merkel’s refugee policy decisions which - inevitably - leads one to study German demographics. While the Bloomberg had each country’s population, it did not have fertility data (this to be published soon - I’ve legal pads and Word files full of ideas from the hiatus).
    And that is exactly the opportunity. The Macro ESG business is for polymaths to support specialists. And it is desperately needed. #macroesg www.macroesg.com @macroesg
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    10 min
  • #1 of 6: Dollar Hinges on Election Post Stimulus Self Destruction

    Summary:

    • Republicans and Democrats are each stalling fiscal stimulus to either support or hurt Donald Trump in different ways and influence the result of the election.
    • President Trump attempted to protect himself politically with an executive order to supplement unemployment insurance and win support with the electorate.
    • The US stimulus political battle darkens the prospects for the dollar.
    • America’s macro ESG “S” and “G” ratings will decline, exacerbating the dollar’s weakness.
      • www.macroesg.com #macroesg
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      12 min
    • #2of6 China Builds Investment Alliances with Oil Suppliers via Rising RMB + Equities as US Squabbles

      Summary:

      • China is likely preparing the RMB to rally along with the stock market. Perhaps China is doing a deal with the non-China SWF’s – which would make sense. Governments talking to governments – building strategic alliances of capital and trade – new blood brothers.
      • These new alliances of “mutually assured growth and political control” will have a big impact on the evolution of global development.
      • Unless the advanced economies respond forcefully, the world is entering a dark phase.
      • As the oil industry is officially becoming relegated to the back waters when the largest market cap company in the world was Exxon in 2011 and Exxon has just been pulled from the Dow Jones Industrial Index, oil is about to make itself felt in another big way.
        • www.macroesg.com @macroesg
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        10 min
      • #3 of 6: China Will Slow Down Climate Change Mitigation

        Sustainable Future Outlook:

        • But there is a risk to thinking that China will seriously act at all in any time in the near future on climate change.
        • As China is likely to build itself up strategically through creating a “hard” currency by recycling its energy spending with its energy suppliers into rising RMB against the dollar and a rising equity market, it will be unlikely that China will make any meaningful progress on the climate change front.
        • Therefore – Macro ESG’s assessment from China’s likely set of incentives based on 2nd and 3rd order changes through integrating markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future – China will not want to upset its client energy suppliers with a big push to decarbonize.
        • In a sense, Chinese elites will have been captured by the hydrocarbon elites much like the Republican party has in the United States.
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          4 min
        • #4 of 6: A Study of USD Foreign Reserve Currency Holdings and What It Means?

          Summary:

          As I pointed out in #1 of 6:    Dollar Hinges on Election Post Stimulus Self Destruction, the US dollar will trade entirely based on policy and that will be determined by the election. An examination of Foreign Exchange Holdings (“FXH”) of US dollars as reserve currency data from the IMF from the perspective of US political parties and presidential administrations yields interesting insights.

          • Republicans have hurt the US dollar as a reserve currency while Democrats have been constructive.
          • China’s goal to tighten relations with developing nations could thus negatively impact the USD as reserve currency.
          • A decline in the USD as reserve currency would have its biggest impact felt on US interest rates and rolling the national debt.
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            5 min
          • #5 of 6: Emerging Market Currencies Are Now Going to Lead the Dollar?

            Summary:

            • Advanced economies typically led major changes in the US dollar versus emerging economies, when compared from the starting point of freely trading fiat currencies in 1971.
            • For the first time since the dollar went off of the gold standard, advanced economies are losing their power to lead the value of the USD.
            • Now the future of the dollar is equally tied to emerging  and advanced nations, signifying the end of G7 power and the rise of G20 power.
            • China’s plan is to conquer the world from the bottom up.
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              6 min
            • #6 of 6: China’s Orwellian Capitalism Versus Socially Free Capitalism

              In this sixth piece of the series, I attempt to put all of the pieces together.

              • This is a game for the US to lose.
              • If American politics – the “G” of macro ESG fails in a stimulus spending appropriations failure – then then US markets could take a deep hit.
              • American elites might find themselves pushed into a corner so America may respond with inciting political instability in China through starting border skirmishes.
              • If the US is capable of building a coalition of the leading democracies – then China is also in trouble because China is a big buyer of advanced machines and tools which could be withheld as China mainly a low-margin low-value added assembler of high value-added designs.
              • China’s risk is that might not be able to ascend to become a higher value-added tech society because political dissent is illegal and property rights are capricious.
                • www.macroesg.com @macroesg
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                7 min

              About Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

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              We analyze the risks of markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future.