Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Episode 51 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo digs into the surprising April JOLTS report: job openings jumped to 7.6 million, the highest in over a year. Lucas and Luna explore why openings are soaring while unemployment stays at 4.3 percent, how the surge is concentrated in sectors like hospitality and healthcare, and what the rising quits rate signals about worker confidence. They also connect the dots to May's hot CPI print and the Fed's dilemma. If you find the episode useful, support the show at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo.

#JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #CPI #QuitsRate #HospitalityJobs #HealthcareJobs #MacroEconomics #Unemployment #WageGrowth #Inflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna #EconomicData #JobMarket

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The May wholesale inflation print landed at 1.1 percent month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why the Producer Price Index matters more right now than the consumer-side CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. They trace how wholesale energy gains ripple through delivery surcharges, retail margins, and eventually paychecks — and why the Fed's focus on core PCE may miss the real-time pain small businesses are already feeling. With the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbing to 2.31 percent, the hosts explore whether markets are pricing in a persistent supply shock rather than a transient one. Specific data points include the PPI energy component jump, the 10-year yield settling at 4.49 percent, and the divergence between job openings at 7.6 million and initial claims creeping toward 230,000. A sharp, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economy in June 2026.

#WholesaleInflation #ProducerPriceIndex #CPI #CorePCE #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #ECB #RateHike #June2026 #InflationOutlook #SupplyShock #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #SmallBusiness #BreakevenRate #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Wholesale prices surged 1.1% in May, far more than expected, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna dig into what this PPI number really means for June CPI, the Fed's next move, and whether the market is misreading the inflation trajectory. They break down why the core PCE — not headline CPI — remains the Fed's true north star, and why the yield curve's recent steepening might actually be a sign of sticky inflation rather than recession. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63% and breakeven inflation rising, this episode connects the dots between producer prices, consumer prices, and central bank policy. No hot takes, just the data.

#WholesaleInflation #PPI #CPI #FedPolicy #IranConflict #EnergyPrices #InflationOutlook #CorePCE #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FedFundsRate #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #InflationData #ProducerPrices #MonetaryPolicy

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 wholesale inflation surprise — the Producer Price Index rose 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a surge in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They explain why this matters for the consumer price index, which hit 4.2% annual inflation in May, and what it signals about the Fed's path forward. The hosts also connect the wholesale jump to the ECB's first rate hike since 2023 and discuss how persistent energy price shocks could keep inflation sticky. Tune in for a concise, data-driven look at the pipeline pressures threatening the inflation outlook.

#WholesaleInflation #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EnergyPrices #IranConflict #ECB #RateHike #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MacroEconomics #SupplyChain #ProducerPrices #ConsumerPrices #CoreInflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve is steepening again, but this time it's not signaling a recession. Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics behind the move: the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.49 percent is up while the two-year yield at 3.62 percent is flat, pushing the spread positive after two years of inversion. They explain why this steepening is driven by term premium — investors demanding more compensation for holding long-term bonds amid higher inflation uncertainty and a growing federal deficit — not by expectations of a future rate cut. Using the latest Fed Funds rate of 3.63 percent and Friday's hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation print, they show how the bond market is pricing in stickier inflation rather than a slowing economy. The episode also touches on what this means for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs. Finally, Lucas and Luna briefly note that listener support via Buy Me a Coffee helps keep the show ad-free and independent.

#YieldCurve #Steepening #TreasuryYields #TermPremium #FederalReserve #Inflation #BondMarket #RecessionSignal #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #FedFundsRate #WholesaleInflation #PPI #EconomicOutlook #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Producer Price Index jumped 1.1% in May, double expectations, with energy costs spiking amid the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this wholesale inflation signal matters more than usual for the Fed's next move—and what it could mean for the June CPI print. They connect the wholesale price surge to rising jobless claims, sticky core PCE, and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. If you've been watching CPI at 4.2% and wondering whether the Fed has room to cut in 2026, this episode gives you the leading indicator to track.

#ProducerPriceIndex #WholesaleInflation #PPISurge #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #CPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #InterestRates #ECB #JoblessClaims #Inflation2026 #EconomicData #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The European Central Bank just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, citing surging energy costs tied to geopolitical instability. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the ECB moved now, how it diverges from the Fed's current pause, and what the widening policy gap means for global inflation and currency markets. They examine the wholesale price spike in the US, the 4.2% CPI print, and the bond market's muted reaction. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.46% and breakeven inflation holding at 2.34%, markets are sending a nuanced signal. This is not a rerun of 2022. The hosts connect the dots between energy shocks, central bank credibility, and the real economy — including why job openings surging back above 7.6 million doesn't change the Fed's calculus. A focused, data-rich conversation for anyone trying to understand where inflation is headed next.

#ECB #RateHike #Inflation #EnergyPrices #GlobalEconomy #CentralBanks #Fed #BondMarket #WholesalePrices #CPI #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #InterestRates #Geopolitics #CurrencyMarkets

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With CPI hitting 4.2% in May — the highest in three years — headlines are screaming inflation. But Lucas and Luna argue the real story is quieter: Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, is running at just 2.8% annualized over the past three months. They unpack why the gap between CPI and PCE matters, how services inflation is stickier than goods deflation, and what the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.34% signals about market expectations. Plus, the bond market's reaction — 10-year Treasury yield at 4.54% — suggests traders are pricing in a higher neutral rate, not panic. A focused look at which inflation measure actually drives policy decisions.

#CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #10YearBreakeven #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #ServicesInflation #MayCPI2026 #MacroTuesdays #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FedPolicy #InflationExpectations

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the S&P 500 down 4% in a week and headline CPI hitting 4.2% annually, Lucas and Luna unpack why this inflation reading feels different than the 2022 surge. They drill into the bond market signal: the ten-year yield climbing to 4.54% while breakeven inflation is actually falling. The hosts break down how the composition of inflation matters more for equities than the headline number, and why services-driven CPI is a tougher problem for the Fed than goods-driven inflation was. A focused macroeconomic conversation for anyone wondering why markets are selling off despite a still-low 4.3% unemployment rate.

#CPI #Inflation #BondMarket #StockMarket #FederalReserve #TenYearYield #BreakevenInflation #ServicesInflation #MarketSelloff #S&P500 #MacroEconomics #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #EconomicData #MonetaryPolicy #ConsumerPrices

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, and the overall labor market looks healthy. But inside the data, small businesses are trimming payrolls at a pace not seen since the pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest NFIB survey and ADP payroll breakdown to understand why Main Street is pulling back while corporate America keeps hiring. They explore the role of rising interest rates, tighter bank lending, and a shift in where job creation is concentrated. Plus, a brief behind-the-scenes look at how listener support keeps the podcast ad-free.

#SmallBusiness #LaborMarket #NFIB #ADP #JobCuts #MainStreet #InterestRates #BankLending #Hiring #Payrolls #Unemployment #FederalReserve #MacroTuesdays #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData #JobCreation

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo