Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Episode 61 of Macro Tuesdays digs into the Fed's effective rate sitting at 3.63%, unchanged for weeks despite cooling inflation and a surprise JOLTS surge. Lucas and Luna examine how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is navigating conflicting signals: job openings jumped nearly 11% in April while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% and core CPI crept up. They explore whether the Fed is paralyzed by geopolitical uncertainty after the Iran deal headlines, or if this is a deliberate wait-and-see posture. The conversation also touches on the steep yield curve and what it means for borrowing costs heading into the second half of 2026.

#FedFundsRate #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #JOLTS #Inflation #CoreCPI #UnemploymentRate #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CentralBanking #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Finance #Podcast #NoAds

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This episode of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo dives into the steepening yield curve that has markets buzzing in mid-June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury has widened to nearly 80 basis points, and what that really means for the economy. They challenge the common recession signal interpretation, pointing to the Fed's recent rate hold under new Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky inflation around 3 percent, and a labor market that added 172,000 jobs last month but saw unemployment tick up to 4.3 percent. Could this steepening actually signal growth expectations rather than a downturn? They explore how the curve behaved in similar post-tightening cycles and what bond investors are pricing in right now. No hot takes, just a clear-eyed look at one of the most watched indicators in macro.

#YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #BondMarket #MacroEconomics #SteepeningCurve #Inflation #LaborMarket #FOMC #Economics #MacroTuesdays #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Bonds #FedPolicy

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The new Fed chairman's first meeting has already shifted how the bond market prices rate cuts. Lucas and Luna break down the five takeaways from Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC gathering on June 18, 2026, and what the Treasury curve's recent moves tell us about where inflation and growth are actually headed. The ten-year yield sits at 4.45 percent, the two-year at 3.66, and the spread has steepened aggressively. Lucas explains why Warsh's emphasis on financial conditions—not just inflation—changes the game for rate expectations, and why the market is now pricing in a cut later this year even as core PCE holds above target. Luna points out that the market might be getting ahead of itself. A focused look at the signal in the curve and the new chair's communications strategy.

#KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #FOMC #RateCutPricing #BondMarket #YieldCurve #TenYearYield #TreasuryYields #MonetaryPolicy2026 #FinancialConditions #CorePCE #InflationOutlook #MarketExpectations #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #FedChairman

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Kevin Warsh just chaired his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh's policy leanings mean for the path of interest rates — and specifically for the housing market. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.46 percent and the effective Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, the bond market is signaling something different than the dot plots of the past. Lucas explains why Warsh might prioritize financial stability over inflation-fighting in a way that could keep mortgage rates elevated. Luna questions whether that's actually the right read, given the steepening yield curve they're seeing. They hit on the key data: the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, JOLTS surged to 7.6 million, and real GDP growth just ticked up to 1.6 percent. This episode is for anyone wondering if that dream home gets cheaper anytime soon.

#KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #YieldCurve #TenYearTreasury #FedFundsRate #Economics #Macro #Housing #RealEstate #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve, which has many investors wondering if it signals recession or something else entirely. With the 2-year yield at 3.65% and the 10-year at 4.46%, the spread has widened to 81 basis points—far from the inverted territory of 2023-2024. But Lucas argues this steepening is driven not by recession fears but by term premium repricing as the Fed holds rates steady and inflation expectations remain anchored. They discuss how the current curve compares to past steepenings, what it means for bond investors, and why the typical recession signal may be less reliable this cycle. Grounded in specific data from June 2026, this episode offers a clear framework for understanding one of the most watched indicators in macro markets.

#YieldCurve #Steepening #BondMarket #FederalReserve #TermPremium #RecessionSignal #TreasuryYields #MacroEconomics #InflationExpectations #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Economy #Investing #BondInvesting #CurveSteepener #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Lucas and Luna explore the surprising message behind the steepening yield curve in June 2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.43 percent and the two-year at 3.63 percent, the spread has widened to eighty basis points—a level that historically signals economic optimism. But this time, bond markets are pricing in sticky inflation and a Fed that may stay higher for longer, not a booming recovery. The hosts dive into why the curve is steepening even as real GDP growth runs at just 1.6 percent, what the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.29 percent tells us about investor expectations, and whether this steepening is a genuine vote of confidence or a warning sign about fiscal risks. A must-listen for anyone trying to decode the macro signals beneath the surface.

#YieldCurve #SteepeningCurve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #FederalReserve #InflationExpectations #BreakevenRate #RealGDP #EconomicGrowth #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MarketSignals

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The Russell 2000 is up 4% in five days while the S&P 500 treads water. Lucas and Luna dig into the rotation from large-cap growth to small-cap value, examining what the data says about economic breadth, Fed policy, and whether this rally has legs. With the ten-year yield falling to 4.43% and the two-year at 3.63%, the flattening yield curve is sending a nuanced message. They look at JOLTS job openings surging to 7.6 million and what it means for small business hiring. Plus, a quick note on how listener support keeps the show ad-free.

#Russell2000 #SmallCaps #MarketRotation #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #JOLTS #JobOpenings #SmallBusiness #ValueStocks #GrowthStocks #EconomicBreadth #TreasuryYields #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Investing #StockMarket

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The effective Fed funds rate has dipped to 3.63 percent, down from 3.64 percent in May, while the daily rate sits at 3.62 percent. Lucas and Luna examine what this subtle shift means for monetary policy in June 2026, against a backdrop of CPI at 4.2 percent and a yield curve that's steepening. They drill into the interest on reserve balances rate — currently at 3.65 percent — and why the gap between IORB and the funds rate signals whether the Fed is truly in control. The conversation also touches on how the ECB's surprise rate hike and rising wholesale inflation complicate the Fed's path. A must-listen for anyone tracking the real pulse of central bank policy this summer.

#FedFundsRate #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #IORB #YieldCurve #CPI #Inflation #ECB #CentralBanking #Economics #Macro #Liquidity #Reserves #FOMC #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down a strange disconnect in financial markets: consumer prices just hit 4.2 percent annual inflation — the highest in three years — yet the ten-year Treasury yield has actually fallen over the past week. They explore the gap between the CPI headline and what bond traders are really pricing in, from the Fed's effective rate at 3.63 percent to the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.31 percent. Lucas explains why the bond market's message might be more forward-looking than the panic in consumer confidence surveys, and whether this divergence is a buy signal or a warning. The episode ties it back to what it means for portfolios in mid-2026, especially with the Nasdaq up nearly 4 percent in five days even as inflation fears dominate headlines.

#CPI #Inflation #BondMarket #TreasuryYield #FederalReserve #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FinancialMarkets #YieldCurve #BreakevenInflation #Nasdaq #RealRates #LucasAndLuna #WeeklyEconomics #PodcastEpisode #MarketDisconnect

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna drill into the surprising 1.1% jump in wholesale prices for May 2026—the biggest monthly gain in over a year. They connect this producer-price surge to the consumer inflation numbers that hit 4.2% annually, and ask whether the Fed's steady hand on rates is enough. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.31%, the hosts examine how energy costs from the Iran conflict are working their way through the supply chain. If you've felt prices rising faster than the official CPI suggests, this episode explains why. No broad recaps—just one concrete data point and what it means for your purchasing power.

#WholesaleInflation #PPI #CPI #Inflation2026 #FederalReserve #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #SupplyChain #BreakevenInflation #CorePCE #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna #ProducerPrices #ConsumerPrices #EconomicData

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