Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Lucas and Luna explore why middle-income wages have stagnated despite record job openings and solid GDP growth. Using recent data—4.3% unemployment, 7.6 million job openings, and average hourly earnings up only 2.9% year over year—they dissect the structural forces splitting the labor market. From the hollowing out of mid-skill roles to the premium on AI literacy, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at who benefits in today's economy and why the 'average' worker feels left behind. A must-listen for anyone tracking career trends, wage policy, or the real health of the recovery.

#WageDivergence #MiddleIncome #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #AverageHourlyEarnings #Unemployment #GDP #AI #Automation #SkillsGap #EconomicMobility #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Macroeconomics #WageStagnation #JOLTS #IncomeInequality

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Lucas and Luna examine a striking pattern in the latest May 2026 data: while average hourly earnings rose to $37.50, middle-wage workers are barely keeping pace. They look at the February 2025 Atlanta Fed wage tracker showing a 4.2 percent median gain—then break down why that headline masks a growing gap between low-end and high-end wage growth. Lucas connects it to a JPMorgan Chase Institute study on spending buffers, and Luna points to the manufacturing job cuts reshaping which sectors are adding high-paying versus low-paying roles. The hosts ask whether the labor market is creating a 'barbell' of haves and have-nots, and what that means for the Fed policy outlook at 3.63 percent. Tighter than ever, but not for everyone.

#WageGrowth #LaborMarket #HourlyEarnings #AtlantaFed #JPMorganChase #MedianWage #LowWageJobs #HighWageJobs #ManufacturingDecline #CoreInflation #FedPolicy #IncomeInequality #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicTrends #WageDivergence

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In Episode 79 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzle for mid-2026: the Fed funds rate has held steady at 3.63 percent for over eight months, even as core PCE inflation climbed to 3.4 percent in May. They break down why the Fed isn't raising rates despite higher inflation, focusing on the gap between the policy rate and the neutral rate estimate, and what recent FOMC minutes reveal about internal debates. Using the inverted yield curve between 2-year and 10-year Treasurys and the drop in 5-year breakeven inflation expectations, they explore the argument that the economy may be weaker than inflation headline suggests. The episode also touches on what a potential Hormuz shipping disruption could mean for energy prices if U.S.-Iran tensions escalate again. No hot takes — just the data and the logic.

#MacroTuesdays #Economics #FederalReserve #FedFundsRate #Inflation #CorePCE #MonetaryPolicy #NeutralRate #YieldCurve #Treasury #BreakevenInflation #BondMarket #HormuzStrait #EnergyPrices #FOMC #EconomicData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data released April 1, 2026 showing 7.6 million job openings—up sharply from 6.89 million the month before. But the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent. How can openings surge while hiring stays flat? They break down the mismatch between the types of jobs available and the workers who need them, using the gap in manufacturing and hospitality as a concrete case. They also connect the dots to the Fed's stuck-at-3.63 rate and what it means for the job market in the second half of 2026.

#JOLTS #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #Unemployment #Fed #InterestRates #Manufacturing #Hospitality #Mismatch #EconomicData #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Podcast #Economy2026 #LucasAndLuna

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Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that has macro economists scratching their heads: core PCE inflation hit 3.4 percent in May 2026, the highest since October 2023, even as real GDP growth cooled to 2.1 percent and job openings surged to 7.6 million without a matching pickup in hiring. They examine the role of lagged shelter costs, sticky service inflation, and the Fed's preferred gauge, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.20 percent, which suggests bond markets aren't panicking. The hosts ask whether 3.4 percent is a temporary hangover from 2024-2025 supply shocks or a signal that the neutral rate is higher than the Fed thinks. They also touch on what this means for the odds of a rate cut before year-end, with the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent. A must-listen for anyone trying to make sense of mid-2026 inflation data.

#Inflation #CorePCE #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #GDP #JOLTS #JobOpenings #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #ShelterCosts #ServiceInflation #NeutralRate #RateCut #FedFundsRate #Macroeconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest JOLTS data showing a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026, even as actual hiring barely budged. They explore what this gap means for wage pressures, Fed policy, and the labor market's strange new normal. With core PCE inflation hitting 3.4% and the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63%, they connect the dots between employer demand, worker reluctance, and why the economy feels sluggish despite low unemployment. A must-listen for anyone tracking the disconnect between data and daily reality.

#JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #Hiring #FedPolicy #Inflation #CorePCE #Wages #Unemployment #Economics #MacroTuesdays #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Economy #Fed #Employment

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Core PCE inflation hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023—yet the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.37%, barely budging. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect: markets are buying the Fed's story that inflation is transitory, while wage data and consumer spending suggest the economy is running hotter than Powell wants. They unpack the role of services inflation, rent lags, and why the bond market's faith might be a trap. A tight 10-minute look at the macro disconnect nobody's talking about.

#CorePCE #Inflation #BondMarket #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #MacroEconomy #WageGrowth #ServicesInflation #MarketDisconnect #TransitoryInflation #EconomicData #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesday #Podcast #Investing #Markets

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Even as GDP growth slows and the labor market shows cracks, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge hit 3.4% in May — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down the dissonance: shelter costs that refuse to budge, a rising services inflation component tied to insurance and medical care, and what it means for the Fed's next move. With the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63% and the yield curve still inverted, they explore whether this is a 'last mile' problem or something more structural. A concrete look at the data behind the headlines, including the latest JOLTS job openings bounce to 7.6 million and what factory job cuts near crisis levels mean for the broader picture.

#CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #FedFundsRate #JOLTS #LaborMarket #FactoryJobs #ShelterCosts #ServicesInflation #YieldCurve #GDP #EconomicData #MonetaryPolicy #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 core inflation reading of 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023 — and explain why the Fed's preferred PCE gauge is flashing a different signal than headline CPI. They explore the role of housing services, the divergence between goods and services inflation, and what this means for the Fed's rate path with the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent. Plus: why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.18 percent even as core inflation rises, and what that tells us about market skepticism toward the persistence of price pressures. No jargon, no hot takes — just a clear look at the data that matters.

#CoreInflation #PCE #CPI #FederalReserve #Inflation2026 #FedFundsRate #BreakevenInflation #HousingServices #ServicesInflation #GoodsDeflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #MacroTuesdays

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been confounding investors: inflation is running hot — CPI hit 334.0 in May and core PCE is creeping up — yet the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.18 percent. They explore why the bond market seems to be shrugging off higher consumer prices, looking at the role of the Fed's interest on reserve balances, the steep yield curve, and what the data says about market expectations for the second half of 2026. The hosts also touch on the latest job openings surge to 7.6 million and what it means for wage growth, and they briefly peel back the curtain on how listener support keeps the show ad-free. A tight, data-rich conversation for anyone trying to understand where inflation expectations are really headed.

#Inflation #BondMarket #CPI #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #FedFundsRate #YieldCurve #JobOpenings #JOLTS #WageGrowth #MonetaryPolicy #MacroEconomics #InterestRates #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroTuesdays #MarketData

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