Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

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Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data episodes

  • The Bond Market Is Calling the Fed's Bluff on Rate Cuts

    Lucas and Luna dig into the yield curve's latest move. With the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.68% and the 10-year at 4.54%, the spread has widened to 86 basis points — the steepest since mid-2022. They explore what the bond market is signaling about growth, inflation, and the Fed's next move. Lucas points to the term premium debate and how investors are demanding more compensation for holding long-term debt. Luna contrasts the 4.2% unemployment rate with the tepid 57,000 June payrolls number, asking whether the curve is pricing in a 'no landing' scenario. The conversation covers how the Fed's 3.63% policy rate is increasingly out of step with market expectations, and what this disconnect means for portfolio positioning. Real yields, breakeven inflation, and the role of quantitative tightening all come into play.

    #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #TermPremium #Inflation #RateCuts #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #EconomicData #BondInvesting #SteepeningCurve #NoLanding #QuantitativeTightening #JobsReport #CentralBank

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    9 min
  • Why Services Inflation Is the Fed's Next Battle

    In this milestone 100th episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack why services inflation—not goods prices—is now the Federal Reserve's primary headache. With core PCE at 2.9 percent and the ten-year breakeven stuck at 2.25 percent, the hosts examine how rising rents and sticky supercore services are keeping the Fed on hold at 3.63 percent. They break down the JOLTS data showing 7.594 million job openings alongside a labor force participation rate near 50-year lows outside COVID, and discuss what the inverted yield curve's slow normalization signals about the economy. The conversation also touches on why markets are pricing in rate cuts while the Fed insists on patience, and what that divergence means for portfolio positioning. A focused look at the structural shift from goods inflation to services inflation and why it may take longer to resolve.

    #ServicesInflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #JOLTS #LaborMarket #SupercoreInflation #YieldCurve #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #InflationOutlook #FedPolicy #RateCuts #RentInflation #LaborForceParticipation #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy

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    10 min
  • World Cup Jobs Boost and What It Means

    Goldman Sachs estimated the 2026 World Cup could add 40,000 jobs to the June payrolls report. Lucas and Luna dig into that number — how a short-term sporting event distorts the monthly jobs data, whether the 57,000 headline was really just 17,000 once you strip out the tournament, and what that means for reading the labor market correctly. They look at past World Cup impacts, compare it to Census hiring bumps, and ask whether the Fed can ignore one-month noise when inflation is still running hot. A concrete look at why one big event can mess with your macro view.

    #WorldCup2026 #JobsReport #Payrolls #LaborMarket #GoldmanSachs #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FederalReserve #Inflation #NonfarmPayrolls #DataDistortion #SeasonalAdjustment #LaborForce #Employment #MacroTuesdays

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    9 min
  • The Bond Market Is Pricing In a Different Economy Than GDP Is

    Episode 98 of Macro Tuesdays. As Real GDP growth accelerates to 2.1 percent annualized and unemployment drops to 4.2 percent, the yield curve is flashing a warning: the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.53 percent this week while the 2-year barely budged, steepening the curve by the most since March. Lucas and Luna dig into this divergence — why the bond market seems to be pricing in a stickier inflation, a more aggressive Fed, or a growth path that GDP alone can't capture. They look at what the 30-year bond hitting 5.04 percent tells us about term premiums, and why the Fed's 3.63 percent policy rate is feeling increasingly out of step with both inflation and market expectations. One concrete takeaway: when the long end moves faster than the short end, the market is betting the Fed will have to act, not because the economy is strong, but because inflation isn't done.

    #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FedPolicy #Inflation #TreasuryYields #TermPremium #GDPGrowth #SteepeningYieldCurve #LucasAndLuna #Macro #InterestRates #EconomicData #CentralBanking #MarketDivergence

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    10 min
  • The Divergence Between GDP Growth and Job Creation

    In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna explore a puzzling disconnect in the current economy: real GDP growth has rebounded to an annualized 2.1 percent, yet nonfarm payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June. Why is the economy producing more output without producing more jobs? The hosts dig into the data, examining rising productivity, the shift toward capital-intensive industries, and what it means for workers and policymakers. They also discuss how this divergence challenges traditional economic models and what signals it sends about the future of the labor market.

    #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #GDP #JobCreation #Productivity #NonfarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #RealGDP #EconomicGrowth #JOLTS #UnemploymentRate #FedPolicy #WageGrowth #CapitalIntensity #StructuralChange #MacroEconomy

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    7 min
  • The Hidden Story in June's 57000 Jobs Number

    Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report — specifically the shockingly low 57,000 payrolls number. They look past the headline to find a quieter story: the labor force participation rate dropping to its lowest outside the pandemic era. They connect that participation decline to the curious fact that job openings actually rose slightly, and ask whether the Fed's 3.63 interest rate is really the binding constraint, or whether something deeper is going on with worker attachment to the labor market. Specific numbers: 57,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment, 7.594 million job openings, labor force participation near 50-year lows. No breaking hot takes — just a careful reading of what the data actually says.

    #JobsReport #LaborForceParticipation #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Payrolls #Unemployment #JOLTS #EconomicData #Macro #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #SoftLanding #WorkerShortage #DiscouragedWorkers #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #MacroTuesdays

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    9 min
  • What Falling Labor Force Participation Means for the Economy

    Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising drop in the labor force participation rate to its lowest in 50 years outside of Covid, even as the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June. They explore why workers are leaving the job market, how participation has fallen across different age groups, and what this means for inflation and Fed policy. The episode ties together JOLTS data showing 7.6 million job openings with the participation decline, and asks whether the US economy can sustain growth with fewer workers. A clear, data-driven look at a structural shift that often gets overlooked in monthly jobs coverage.

    #LaborForceParticipation #ParticipationRate #JobMarket #Unemployment #JOLTS #FedPolicy #Inflation #EconomicGrowth #MacroEconomics #LaborMarket #NonfarmPayrolls #FedReserve #USEconomy #EconomicData #JuneJobsReport #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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    10 min
  • The Fed Liquidity Trap That Markets Are Ignoring

    In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling disconnect in today's economy: the Fed has held rates at 3.63 percent for over a year, inflation is still running hot at 3.4 percent core PCE, yet the stock market is at all-time highs. They zero in on one overlooked factor—the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65 percent, which is effectively paying banks to park money rather than lend. With over $3 trillion in excess reserves, this creates a liquidity trap that distorts monetary transmission. They connect the dots to the steepening yield curve, the tepid jobs report of 57,000 new payrolls, and why small caps (the Russell 2000 is down 0.5 percent this week) are getting left behind. A must-listen for anyone confused by this 'good news is bad news' market.

    #IORB #FedRate #LiquidityTrap #ExcessReserves #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #YieldCurve #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #JOLTS #LaborMarket #NonfarmPayrolls #StockMarket #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Markets

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    10 min
  • Why the Yield Curve Steepened While the Fed Held Rates Steady

    Lucas and Luna break down the steepening yield curve that has bond traders rethinking the rate outlook. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.49 percent and the 2-year at 4.23 percent, the spread has widened to 26 basis points — the biggest gap in over a year. They explore what's driving long-term yields higher: fiscal deficit concerns, term premium repricing, and the market's growing doubt that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. They also connect the steepening to the June jobs miss and the surprising resilience in jobless claims. A timely look at what the bond market is saying about growth, inflation, and the path ahead.

    #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FedPolicy #Steepening #10YearTreasury #2YearTreasury #TermPremium #Inflation #MacroEconomics #FOMC #RateOutlook #JobsReport #EconomicData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Finance

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    8 min
  • The 57,000 Jobs Mystery Why June's Payrolls Shocked Economists

    The June 2026 jobs report delivered a stunning surprise: only 57,000 new jobs, far below expectations. Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers, exploring why hiring suddenly cooled while the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.2 percent. They examine the conflicting signals between the payroll survey and the household survey, the role of the World Cup in temporarily boosting employment, and what this means for the Federal Reserve's next move. Along the way, they touch on the labor force participation rate hitting a 50-year low and question whether this is a genuine slowdown or just statistical noise. A focused look at one of the most confusing data releases of the year.

    #JobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #June2026 #WorldCup #LaborForceParticipation #HiringSlowdown #PayrollSurvey #HouseholdSurvey #Economy #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Podcast

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    8 min

About Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

From the publisher's feed

Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo is the weekly appointment for business professionals who need to understand the economic forces shaping markets and policy. Each episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the latest data releases—from nonfarm payrolls and CPI prints to PMI surveys and Fed minutes—and connect the dots to real investment decisions and corporate strategy. Expect rigorous analysis of interest rate trajectories, yield curve implications, labor market tightness, and global trade flows, all grounded in named data points and historical context. Lucas leads with sharp journalistic inquiry, pressing for the 'so what' behind the headline numbers, while Luna challenges assumptions and surfaces contrarian views. Whether the topic is a surprise dovish pivot from the Bank of Japan, the impact of industrial policy on semiconductor supply chains, or the shifting dynamics of US consumer credit, the conversation stays focused on actionable macro awareness—not prediction. The show serves portfolio managers, corporate treasurers, and anyone whose professional life depends on reading the economic calendar correctly. No hot takes, no punditry: just two clear-eyed analysts walking through the week's data and what it actually means. By the end, you'll know which questions to ask about the next jobs report—and why the answer matters.