Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising July 2026 import price data, which shows the cost of goods from China hitting levels not seen since 2008. They explore why import prices are rising despite a cooling domestic economy, what it means for the Fed's inflation fight, and how a weaker dollar is amplifying the effect. With the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.24 and the Fed holding rates at 3.63, this episode unpacks the paradox of rising import costs in a disinflationary environment. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of pass-through inflation, while Luna questions whether consumers can keep absorbing higher prices. A must-listen for anyone tracking the real economy beyond headline CPI.

#ImportPrices #China #Inflation #Fed #Dollar #Trade #CPI #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerSpending #Economics #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #USEconomy #GlobalTrade #Tariffs #SupplyChain

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Import prices rose unexpectedly in June 2026, with costs of goods from China hitting their highest level since 2008. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the Fed's disinflation narrative—especially as wholesale prices fell 0.3% and CPI shows tentative cooling. They examine the China factor: the world's second-largest economy posted its slowest quarterly growth since 2022, which is paradoxically raising costs for U.S. importers through supply-chain and currency effects. The hosts also discuss how the bond market's break-even rate has crept up to 2.24% despite falling CPI, suggesting investors see sticky inflation ahead. Specific focus on the three-month trend in core goods inflation and what it signals for the Fed's September meeting.

#ImportPrices #ChinaTrade #Inflation #FederalReserve #MacroEconomics #CPI #WholesalePrices #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #TradePolicy #SupplyChain #Disinflation #Tariffs #ChinaEconomy #GlobalTrade #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The effective federal funds rate is stuck at 3.63 percent, exactly where it has been for months, while the interest on reserve balances sits at 3.65 percent. Lucas and Luna explain why this seemingly technical gap—just two basis points—is actually a sign that the Fed has lost control of short-term rates. They walk through how the IORB mechanism works, why repo markets are signaling excess liquidity, and what this means for the next FOMC meeting. Drawing on the latest data, including flat daily rates and a still-hot economy, they make the case that the Fed's main policy tool is becoming a blunt instrument. No jargon, just a clear look at a quiet crisis in monetary policy implementation.

#FederalReserve #InterestOnReserves #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #FedFundsRate #LiquidityCrisis #RepoMarket #CentralBanking #Economics #MacroEconomics #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Podcast #EconomicPolicy #RateCuts #BankingSector

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The latest import price data shows a surprise gain, driven by rising costs from China hitting their highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell sharply due to a drop in gasoline. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: how are import prices rising when oil is falling? They drill into the composition of import prices, the role of Chinese goods, and what the divergence between import and wholesale prices signals for the Fed's next move. With headline CPI declining but core inflation sticky, this episode examines a key supply-side signal that investors and policymakers are watching. Plus, a look at how the World Cup boost for bars and restaurants fits into a consumer spending picture that is flashing warning signs. Specific data points from the July 18 economic calendar ground the discussion.

#ImportPrices #China #WholesalePrices #Inflation #FederalReserve #CoreCPI #SupplyChain #TradePolicy #WorldCup #ConsumerSpending #Gasoline #Tariffs #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Fexingo

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The dollar has been falling for eight straight weeks even though the Fed is holding rates at 3.63 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox on this episode of Macro Tuesdays. They trace the culprit to a sudden shift in global reserve demand: central banks from Japan to Saudi Arabia are diversifying away from US assets at a pace not seen since the early 2000s. The hosts drill into two specific data points — the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.22 percent and the 2-year yield falling faster than the 10-year — to show how the market is pricing in a weaker dollar as a structural trend, not a tactical blip. Then they connect the dollar slide to the disinflation surprise hiding in June's wholesale price report and ask whether a weaker dollar ultimately helps or hurts the Fed's next move. If you think currency markets are just a side story to the macro picture, this episode will change your mind.

#DollarDecline #USDIndex #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BreakevenInflation #WholesalePrices #GlobalReserves #CentralBankDiversification #Japan #SaudiArabia #CurrencyMarkets #Disinflation #MacroEconomy #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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Episode 116 of Macro Tuesdays digs into the real economic story of mid-2026: not the encouraging CPI miss, but China's weakest GDP growth since 2022 and the ripple effects on global trade and Fed policy. Lucas and Luna break down why China's 4.2% quarterly GDP reading — its slowest in four years — is flashing a bigger warning than the 3.5% CPI print. They connect the dots to the flat 10-year breakeven, the sudden drop in wholesale prices, and what Hormuz tensions mean for energy costs. If you've been watching CPI fall and wondering why the yield curve isn't celebrating, this episode explains the disconnect. Plus, a candid moment on what keeps the show ad-free.

#ChinaSlowdown #GDP #CPI #FedPolicy #GlobalTrade #WholesalePrices #BreakevenInflation #Hormuz #ECB #SupplyChain #DeflationRisk #EconomicData #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #CentralBanks #YieldCurve

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Lucas and Luna examine the puzzling divergence between falling consumer price inflation and rising market-based inflation expectations. Despite June's CPI coming in at 3.5% annualized, below forecasts, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has edged up to 2.23%. They unpack what this means for the Fed's policy path, the bond market's credibility concerns, and whether real-time data or survey-based measures tell a more accurate story. Specific numbers include the June CPI reading, the 10-year breakeven trend over the past month, and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63%.

#CPI #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Inflation #MacroEconomics #MonetaryPolicy #RealRates #TIPS #JuneCPI #EconomicData #FOMC #TreasuryYields #InflationExpectations #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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Lucas and Luna break down the surprising 0.3% decline in June wholesale prices and what it means for the Fed's next move. They connect the Producer Price Index drop to easing energy costs and a 3.5% CPI print that came in below expectations. With the Fed stuck at 3.63% and inflation slowly cooling, they explore whether this is the start of a sustained disinflation trend or just a one-month blip. The conversation also touches on the World Cup's boost to bars and restaurants and the broader consumer spending picture. A focused look at the data the market is watching most closely this July.

#WholesalePrices #ProducerPriceIndex #Disinflation #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #CPI #CoreCPI #EnergyPrices #WorldCup #ConsumerSpending #Economics #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #PodcastEpisode #FedWatch

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising June wholesale price decline—a 0.3% drop driven by falling gasoline prices—and what it means for the Fed's next moves. With CPI also coming in cooler than expected at 3.5% annualized, the hosts explore whether this marks the start of a sustained disinflation trend or just a temporary reprieve. They discuss the implications for the bond market, where the ten-year yield sits at 4.55%, and for consumer spending as real wages edge higher. Drawing on the latest PPI and CPI data, they question whether the Fed's current rate stance at 3.63% is still appropriate. The episode builds on prior episodes about sticky inflation and labor market divergences, offering a fresh take on how wholesale price trends might signal a shift in the economic outlook.

#WholesalePrices #PPI #CPI #Disinflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #GasolinePrices #Inflation #BondMarket #TenYearYield #RealWages #ConsumerSpending #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData #June2026

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the 'funflation' phenomenon that is hitting staycations harder than travel. With CPI at 3.5% in June and core PCE still elevated at 130.1, the hosts explain why home-based leisure — from backyard upgrades to streaming subscriptions — is getting more expensive, while airline and hotel prices show surprising moderation. They discuss how this shifts consumer behavior, why the Fed's inflation battle now includes 'at-home fun', and what it means for the broader economy. Tune in for a data-driven look at a trend that's quietly reshaping household budgets.

#Funflation #Staycation #ConsumerSpending #CPI #CorePCE #Inflation #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #FedPolicy #Disinflation #LeisureEconomy #HomeImprovement #StreamingWars #RealWages #July15

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