Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Episode 141 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo digs into the Q2 2026 GDP print, which came in at an annualized 1.5% — down sharply from 2.1% in Q1. Lucas and Luna explore the implications for the Fed, especially given that core inflation remains sticky at 3.3% and jobless claims just jumped to 197,000 from 188,000. They discuss why the soft-landing narrative is getting harder to sustain, how the yield curve has uninverted but long-term yields keep rising, and what the divided Fed might do next. Tune in for a grounded, data-driven look at the economy's current 'stall speed' moment.

#GDP #FederalReserve #SoftLanding #Inflation #JoblessClaims #Q2GDP #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicGrowth #CorePCE #LaborMarket #DividedFed #Macroeconomics #FOMC #TreasuryYields #BusinessNews #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing disconnect between realized inflation and market expectations. The latest CPI print showed a decline to 332.6, but the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 2.26 percent, its highest in weeks. With the Fed divided on its next move—some focused on cooling CPI, others wary of tariff impacts and sticky core PCE—Lucas explains what this divergence means for rate cut probabilities and the steepening yield curve. They also discuss the surprising drop in jobless claims to 187,000, the rebound in real GDP growth to 2.1 percent, and what all of this implies for the Fed's year-end outlook. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to make sense of the macro landscape in late July 2026.

#InflationExpectations #CPI #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #FedDivided #RateCutOdds #JoblessClaims #RealGDP #CorePCE #YieldCurve #SteepeningCurve #TariffImpact #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Markets

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In June 2026, CPI fell for the first time in months, dropping to 332.6 from 333.98. Yet the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose from 2.20 to 2.26. Lucas and Luna break down this puzzling divergence: why actual inflation is cooling while market-implied expectations are heating up. They explore possible drivers like rising oil prices, new tariff threats, and the Fed's tricky communication challenge. Plus, a candid look at how listener support keeps this ad-free macro analysis going.

#CPI #InflationExpectations #BreakevenInflationRate #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #MacroEconomics #FOMC #Tariffs #OilPrices #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Investing #MarketSignals

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On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest jobs data: initial jobless claims plunged to 187,000 in mid-July, the lowest in over a year. But with the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and core PCE still rising, the Fed is stuck between a hot labor market and sticky inflation. Lucas explains why this paradox is giving the central bank a headache, especially with GDP growth at 2.1 percent and the 10-year yield at 4.60 percent. They discuss how the divergence between CPI and PCE confuses the narrative, and what it means for rate cuts later this year. A tight labor market plus stubbornly high core inflation means the Fed may have to hold steady longer than markets expect. Tune in for a data-driven look at the macro puzzle that has economists scratching their heads.

#MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #JoblessClaims #FederalReserve #CorePCE #GDPGrowth #LaborMarket #Inflation #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #USMacro #CentralBank #2026Midyear #EmploymentData #FedHoldsSteady #MacroEconomics

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The 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.21%, its lowest in months, even as the Fed's preferred PCE price index rose to 131.5 and core PCE hit 130.1. Lucas and Luna unpack this divergence: why markets are betting on cooling inflation despite sticky readings in the actual data. They explore whether the PCE uptick is transitory or a warning sign, how the labor market's mixed signals—record-low jobless claims but tepid payroll gains—factor into the Fed's calculus, and what the Singapore central bank's surprise tightening says about global inflation risks. Plus, they discuss the yield curve inversion and what it means for the Fed's next move. A must-listen for anyone tracking the gap between market pricing and economic reality.

#MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FederalReserve #Inflation #PCE #BreakevenInflation #YieldCurve #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #CorePCE #SingaporeTightening #GlobalInflation #InterestRates #EconomicData

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This week on Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a rare moment in bond markets: the 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 3.80 percent, above the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate of 3.65 percent for the first time since before the pandemic. They explain what this 'yield floor break' signals about market expectations for Fed policy, the surge in real yields to multi-year highs, and the knock-on effect that slammed the Nasdaq down over 3 percent in five days. Plus, a dive into the latest jobless claims data — initial claims plunged to 187,000, the lowest level since 2022 — and why a tight labor market is keeping the Fed on hold even as inflation shows signs of cooling. If you've been wondering why stocks are selling off while the economy still looks solid, this episode connects the dots between the bond market's message and the equity market's pain.

#Macro #FederalReserve #2YearYield #InterestOnReserves #YieldCurve #RealYields #TechStocks #Nasdaq #JoblessClaims #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #LaborMarket #Inflation #Treasuries #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesday

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna explore why the cost of goods imported from China has hit its highest level since 2008, despite a cooling CPI and falling inflation expectations. They discuss how surging import costs from China complicate the Fed's path, especially with jobless claims at 187,000 and the labor market still tight. The hosts examine whether this is a tariff hangover, a supply chain effect, or a sign of structural shifts. They also connect the data to the recent Nasdaq selloff and rising short-term yields. A must-listen for anyone tracking the disconnect between headline inflation and real-world price pressures.

#ImportPrices #ChinaTrade #InflationWatch #FedPolicy #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #USTreasury #YieldCurve #GlobalTrade #Tariffs #SupplyChain #Economics #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna #MarketData

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling divergence: initial jobless claims just hit 187,000, a level not seen since the late 1960s, while the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.68%—up more than 2% in a week. With the Fed holding its policy rate steady at 3.63%, what's driving long-term yields higher? Lucas traces the steepening yield curve to a combination of fiscal deficits, global tightening (Singapore surprised markets with a hawkish move), and tariff-driven import price spikes. Meanwhile, the ultra-low jobless claims suggest a labor market that's still red-hot, even as inflation moderates. The hosts explore whether these two signals point to a soft landing or, instead, to a policy trap where the Fed can't cut without reigniting inflation. If you're trying to make sense of the bond market's message about the economy, this conversation provides the framework you need.

#MacroTuesdays #Economics #JoblessClaims #YieldCurve #Fed #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LaborMarket #Treasuries #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #SteepeningCurve #InitialClaims #BondMarket #EconomicData #July2026 #CentralBanks

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The CPI may be cooling, but the Fed's preferred inflation metric—the PCE price index—is still edging up. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between CPI and PCE, explain why core PCE rose in May despite flat core CPI, and discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path. They also tie in the surprising plunge in jobless claims to 187,000, the World Cup boost to consumer spending, and the risk that new global tariffs could reignite import price pressures. If you've been wondering why the Fed isn't declaring victory on inflation, this episode explains the data they're actually watching.

#Economics #Inflation #FederalReserve #PCE #CPI #CorePCE #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #Tariffs #TradePolicy #ConsumerSpending #WorldCup #InterestRates #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData

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This episode of Macro Tuesdays unpacks the surprising drop in initial jobless claims to 187,000 and what it means for the Fed's next move. As inflation cools and the labor market tightens, Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has introduced three key phrases that signal how the central bank is navigating the crosscurrents. Lucas and Luna decode each phrase in the context of the latest CPI and tariff headlines, and discuss why trade policy from the White House adds a new layer of uncertainty. If you've been wondering whether the Fed is signaling a cut or a hold, this episode gives you the language to listen for.

#KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #FedCommunication #JoblessClaims #CPI #Inflation #LaborMarket #Tariffs #TradePolicy #MacroTuesdays #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #DataSurprise #WarshThreePhrases #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketMovers #CentralBank

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