Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

The gap between falling inflation and a rising ten-year Treasury yield has widened to levels not seen in years. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving the divergence—strong real yields, a resilient labor market, and the Fed's cautious stance. They explain why the ten-year yield, now near 4.7 percent, is a market signal that inflation fears have shifted to growth and fiscal concerns. Using recent data—CPI cooling to 332.6, but job openings still high at 7.36 million—they unpack the implications for investors and the Fed's next moves. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the bond market's message.

#TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicData #CPI #JobsReport #MacroEconomics #Investing #MarketAnalysis #TenYearTreasury #RealYields #FiscalPolicy #GDPGrowth #Unemployment #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics

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July's jobs report was a shock: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, the first outright decline in years, while unemployment fell to 4.1 percent and average hourly earnings held steady at 37.6 dollars. On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox of a shrinking labor market with sticky wages, and what it signals for the Fed's next move. With job openings down to 7.36 million and initial claims creeping up to 199,000, the picture is more nuanced than a simple headline. They discuss why the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, is still rising even as CPI cools, and how the central bank is boxed in between cooling growth and persistent price pressures. Along the way, they reflect on what pays for an ad-free podcast and why listener support matters. Tune in for a focused look at the data that's driving the macro picture into late summer 2026.

#JulyJobsReport #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #Inflation #CorePCE #WageGrowth #JobOpenings #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Economics #Finance #Markets #FederalReserve #CPI

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The July 2026 jobs report landed with a thud: a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls, the first negative print in years, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this paradox means for the Federal Reserve and the bond market. They break down the ADP private-sector miss of just 44,000 jobs, the widening gap between the payroll survey and the household survey, and why the ten-year Treasury yield fell despite a supposed strong economy. Plus, they explore how the Fed's own rate decisions have created a policy trap, and why the next CPI report could be the real market mover. If you've been puzzled by why stocks keep climbing while the labor market cracks, this episode connects the dots.

#JulyJobsReport #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #ADPReport #UnemploymentRate #Payrolls #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FedPolicy #InflationWatch #CPI #JoblessClaims #StockMarket #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The July jobs report delivered a surprise: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the Federal Reserve's rate path, why wage growth staying at 3.6% while inflation cools is the key tension, and how markets have reacted with the S&P 500 up over 2% for the week. They also look at the trend in job openings, which have fallen to 7.36 million, and what that suggests about the labor market's trajectory. This episode cuts through the noise to focus on the one number that matters: the unemployment rate, which ticked down to 4.1%. They discuss whether this is a blip or the start of a broader slowdown, and what it means for your portfolio.

#JulyJobsReport #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #UnemploymentRate #WageGrowth #Inflation #EconomicData #JobsReport #FederalReserve #JobOpenings #NonfarmPayrolls #MarketReaction #S&P500 #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest inflation data from June 2026, where the headline CPI dipped to 332.6 but core PCE actually ticked up. They explore why the Fed under Kevin Warsh finds itself in a tough spot: with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.22% and the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, the central bank has little room to ease without reigniting price pressures. The conversation dives into the implications for the July jobs report, due out Friday, and what a 44,000 ADP print signals about a cooling labor market. They also discuss how recent manufacturing surveys show inflation worries that are 'worse than pandemic era,' adding to the Fed's dilemma. If you've been wondering why the Fed isn't cutting rates despite headlines about cooling inflation, this episode offers a clear, data-driven explanation. Tune in for a fresh perspective on the macro landscape as of August 2026.

#MacroTuesdays #Inflation #CPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #JoblessClaims #ADPReport #LaborMarket #Manufacturing #BreakevenInflation #RateCuts #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomyWatch #PodcastEpisode

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a peculiar economic puzzle: job openings have slipped to 7.36 million, down sharply from last year's peak, yet average hourly earnings are still grinding higher at 37.60 dollars an hour. They explore what this divergence says about the labor market's true tightness, how the Fed under Kevin Warsh is interpreting this data, and why the bond market's reaction — with the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.62 percent — might be sending a different signal than the headline numbers suggest. With inflation expectations anchored near 2.22 percent and core PCE still stubborn, the hosts debate whether the Fed can afford to hold rates at 3.63 percent or if the economy is heading for a policy mistake. Tune in for a clear-eyed breakdown of the numbers that matter, what they mean for your wallet, and why the next few months could be pivotal for monetary policy.

#JobOpenings #WageGrowth #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #Inflation #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #CentralBanking #JobMarket #AverageHourlyEarnings #JOLTS #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroTuesdays

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A new manufacturing survey shows inflation worries worse than the pandemic era, even as headline CPI cools. Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving this disconnect — from reshoring bottlenecks to freight costs — and what it means for the Fed's next move. They also break down why core PCE keeps climbing while inflation expectations fall, and how the bond market is pricing it all in. If you're wondering whether the Fed can hold rates steady while factories scream inflation, this episode has the context you need.

#Manufacturing #Inflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #BondMarket #SupplyChain #Reshoring #Economy #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #KevinWarsh #FedPolicy #EconomicData #Business #Finance #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle at the heart of the Fed's current dilemma: inflation expectations are easing even as core PCE remains sticky. Using the latest data — ten-year breakevens at 2.28 percent, core PCE up to 130.3, and the Fed funds rate holding at 3.63 percent — they explore why households and markets seem more optimistic than official measures suggest. They discuss the role of falling gas prices, the cooling labor market, and the Fed's credibility under Chair Kevin Warsh. Lucas explains the gap between survey-based and market-based expectations, and why the central bank might care more about the former. They also touch on the manufacturing survey showing inflation worries 'worse than pandemic era,' and what a divided Fed means for policy. A quick, thoughtful check on whether the Fed can trust the numbers — and whether investors should trust the Fed.

#InflationExpectations #CorePCE #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #MacroEconomics #BreakevenRates #FedPolicy #InflationData #EconomicIndicators #MarketExpectations #LaborMarket #ManufacturingSurvey #DividedFed #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #MacroTuesdays #EconomicNews

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Consumer price inflation has cooled, but the core services part of the CPI basket keeps running hot. In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest June CPI print, where core services inflation is still running around 4.2 percent year-over-year, even as the overall CPI fell to 2.6 percent. They drill into the two biggest drivers: shelter costs, which are up 3.9 percent, and the 'supercore' measure—services excluding energy and housing—which is still climbing at a 3.1 percent annual pace. They explain why the Fed under Kevin Warsh is unlikely to cut rates until these numbers soften, and why the recent drop in the 2-year yield to 3.68 percent might be over-optimistic. With the July jobs report due next week, they also look at how wage growth and jobless claims factor into the inflation equation. If you've been wondering why prices still feel high even though headline inflation is down, this episode gives you the specific categories to watch and why they matter for your portfolio.

#CoreServicesInflation #Supercore #ShelterCosts #CPI #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation2026 #EconomicData #WageGrowth #JoblessClaims #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #MarketAnalysis

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the latest payroll data and what it signals for the Fed's next move. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June, the smallest gain in over two years, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent. They unpack the divergence between the strong headline and the weak internals—things like the drop in average hours worked and the rise in part-time employment for economic reasons. The hosts explore why the bond market is paying more attention to these details than the top-line number, and what it might mean for Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve as they weigh rate cuts later this year. With the 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 4.7 percent and breakevens hovering near 2.3, the market is already pricing in a more cautious Fed. Tune in for a sharp, data-driven conversation on one of the most important economic releases of the summer.

#MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #JobsReport #Payrolls #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #AverageHourlyEarnings #PartTimeEmployment #EconomicData #InflationWatch #MacroEconomics

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