Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 in mid-July 2026, the lowest level in months, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. But nonfarm payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June. Lucas and Luna unpack this labor-market divergence: low layoffs indicate a tight labor market, but sluggish hiring suggests the economy isn't overheating. They discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path, why bond yields are rising despite cooling CPI, and how the flow-versus-stock view of the labor market changes the narrative. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves.

#Economics #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #NonfarmPayrolls #FederalReserve #BondYields #Macro #USEconomy #FedPolicy #UnemploymentRate #Inflation #CPIData #TreasuryYields #DataDependency #FlowVsStock #HiringSlowing #EconomicDivergence #FexingoBusiness

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The Fed Funds rate sits at 3.63% but the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.46%. That 83-basis-point gap is unusual and it's trapping short-term rates above where the Fed wants them. Lucas and Luna explain why the interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65% creates a floor under money-market yields, why banks are parking reserves instead of lending, and how this 'reserve trap' is keeping the yield curve inverted longer than expected. With core inflation still sticky at 2.1% annualized and unemployment at 4.2%, the Fed can't lower IORB without reigniting inflation, but keeping it high drains liquidity. A deep dive into the plumbing of monetary policy and why the short end of the curve won't budge.

#FedReserveRate #IORB #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #ShortTermYields #TreasuryYields #LiquidityTrap #FedFundsRate #Inflation #BondMarket #Economics #Macro #CentralBanking #BankReserves #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #FexingoMacro

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Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising resurgence of used car prices in July 2026. Despite overall CPI cooling for six straight months, the used car and truck component jumped 1.2% in June according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. They trace the trend to new car production bottlenecks, a shift in consumer preferences away from small crossovers toward full-size SUVs, and the lingering effects of a 2025 hailstorm season that damaged hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the Plains states. They also discuss how the Manheim Used Vehicle Index, which tracks wholesale auction prices, has been rising for three consecutive months, signaling that retail prices may climb further. The conversation connects the micro trend to the broader inflation picture, questioning whether this is a seasonal blip or a signal that disinflation in goods is stalling.

#UsedCars #Inflation #ConsumerPrices #CPI #ManheimIndex #AutoIndustry #FederalReserve #Disinflation #SupplyChain #Economics #July2026 #UsedVehicleIndex #CarPrices #SUV #HailDamage #WholesalePrices #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Initial jobless claims dropped to 208,000 in mid-July 2026, the lowest level in months. On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into what that number actually means — especially with unemployment at 4.2 percent and the Fed holding rates steady. They explore the disconnect between low layoffs and cooling hiring, why the claims data might be misleading, and what it tells us about the labor market's real temperature. Plus, a look at how Kevin Warsh's recent comments are shaping Fed expectations. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economy's signals right now.

#JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #UnemploymentRate #HiringSlowdown #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroEconomics #InitialClaims #JOLTS #FedWatch #LaborData #EconomicData #PolicyUncertainty #SoftLanding

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Episode 127 of Macro Tuesdays digs into a surprising data point: import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, even though most tariffs aren't due until 2028. Lucas and Luna explore how front-running by importers, supply chain re-routing, and the strong dollar are combining to push up costs now. They also unpack the Fed's latest language from Kevin Warsh, the role of rising breakevens, and what all of this means for inflation expectations heading into Q3 2026. If you're trying to figure out whether disinflation is really here to stay, or if another wave of price pressure is already building, this episode gives you the specific pieces to watch.

#ImportPrices #ChinaTariffs #KevinWarsh #FedPolicy #Inflation #Breakevens #SupplyChain #TradeWar #Disinflation #MacroEconomics #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #GlobalTrade #USChina #Economics #FexingoMacro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Episode 126 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising July 2026 import price data: goods from China hit their highest cost since 2008, even as the Trump administration delays generic drug tariffs until 2028. They connect the dots between a weakening dollar, sticky services inflation, and what the bond market's rising breakeven rate tells us about where inflation is really headed. Plus, a look at why the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate—held flat at 3.65%—may be trapping the economy in a higher-for-longer rate environment. No hot takes, just the data and the story behind it.

#ImportPrices #ChinaTariffs #Inflation #FedPolicy #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #DollarWeakness #ServicesInflation #InterestOnReserves #MonetaryPolicy #TradeDeficits #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #GDP #CPI #TariffDelays

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CPI is finally falling — down to 332.6 in June, the first meaningful decline in years. Core CPI is essentially flat at 336.1. Yet the ten-year yield is up to 4.63 percent, and the two-year is at 4.37. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: if inflation is cooling, why are bond yields still climbing? They trace the answer to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which ticked up to 2.25 percent even as actual CPI fell. That spread — between falling CPI and rising inflation expectations — is the bond market's quiet vote of no confidence in the Fed's ability to keep prices under control. Add in a weaker dollar, rising import costs from China hitting levels not seen since 2008, and renewed geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz, and the macro picture gets complicated fast. This episode walks through the specific data points and what they mean for the Fed's next move — or lack thereof.

#TreasuryYields #CPI #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #InflationExpectations #MacroEconomics #YieldCurve #ImportPrices #China #GeopoliticalRisk #StraitOfHormuz #USDEconomy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Fexingo

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The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something shifted this week: the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spread narrowed to just 27 basis points, the flattest since July 2022. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move — a combination of sticky services inflation, a surprise drop in jobless claims to 208,000, and the Fed holding the effective funds rate at 3.63 percent. They explore whether this is a classic pre-recession signal or something different: a soft-landing curve re-steepening. Along the way they discuss how the bond market is pricing in a slower economy but not a crash, why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.25 matters, and what it means for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs. The episode closes with a look at the World Cup boost to bars and restaurants versus the broader consumer caution flagged in the latest Fed Beige Book.

#YieldCurve #BondMarket #FederalReserve #Treasuries #Inflation #EconomicData #JoblessClaims #SoftLanding #SteepeningCurve #MacroEconomics #BasisPoints #CentralBank #InvestmentStrategy #FixedIncome #FOMC #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics

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Lucas and Luna dive into how renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz are forcing a rethink of central bank policy, even as wholesale prices fall. With the ECB recalibrating its rate path and China slowing, they explore the tension between falling goods inflation and rising energy-driven uncertainty. The hosts unpack the data: declining wholesale prices vs. surging import costs from China, the Fed stuck at 3.63%, and what a 5.12% long bond yield signals about a world where geopolitics trumps monetary policy. Expect a concrete look at how oil chokepoints create a unique stagflationary twist — one that leaves central banks with few good options. They also connect the dots to the 10-year breakeven inching up to 2.24, suggesting the bond market is pricing in a supply shock, not demand-pull inflation.

#StraitOfHormuz #OilPrices #CentralBanks #ECB #FedPolicy #Inflation #WholesalePrices #Stagflation #Geopolitics #SupplyShock #ChinaSlowdown #ImportPrices #TreasuryYields #BreakevenInflation #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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Import prices surprised to the upside in July 2026, even as wholesale prices fell and China's economy slowed. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: a weaker dollar, rising costs from China, and the impact on the Fed's inflation fight. They explore why import costs are now a wildcard for the disinflation narrative, and what it means for consumer prices ahead. With specific data from the latest JOLTS report and the ten-year breakeven rate, this episode drills into one overlooked number that could change the market's inflation calculus.

#ImportPrices #Inflation #FederalReserve #ChinaSlowdown #USDollar #TradeData #CPI #WholesalePrices #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #GlobalTrade #FedPolicy #Disinflation #CurrencyMarkets #SupplyChain #July2026

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