Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the June CPI data released July 14, 2026. Headline inflation came in at 3.5% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, but the real story is in the details: core goods prices are actually falling, while shelter costs remain stubborn. They explore why the bond market isn't celebrating and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63%, markets are pricing in rate cuts, but the data may not support them. Lucas and Luna also discuss the 'funflation' phenomenon and how it's keeping services inflation elevated. A must-listen for anyone trying to understand where the economy is really headed.

#CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #CoreInflation #ShelterCosts #Funflation #ServicesInflation #Disinflation #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna #JuneCPI

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a counterintuitive economic signal: average hourly earnings are up to $37.60, even as job creation slows and the unemployment rate ticks down to 4.2 percent. They explore how labor-market composition—specifically the shift from low-wage service jobs to higher-wage professional roles—is boosting the wage figure without signaling broad-based worker power. Using JOLTS data showing 7.594 million job openings but flat hiring, they explain the 'sticky wage' theory and what it means for the Fed's next move. Plus, a look at why the ten-year yield has climbed to 4.61 percent even as the Fed holds rates steady at 3.63 percent. If you've ever wondered why official wage numbers don't match your paycheck experience, this episode explains the gap.

#MacroTuesdays #Economics #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #FedPolicy #JOLTS #Inflation #RealWages #Unemployment #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #AverageHourlyEarnings #StickyWages #LaborForceParticipation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData #PodcastEpisode

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Episode 109 of Macro Tuesdays: Lucas and Luna break down why the 10-year Treasury yield is up to 4.61 percent while inflation expectations remain at 2.24 percent — a classic stagflation signal. They examine the growing divide between the bond market's grim outlook and the stock market's continued rally, and ask whether investors are pricing in the same economy. With the Fed stuck at 3.63 percent and core CPI still above 3 percent, the hosts debate what happens when the two narratives collide. Specific data points include the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, the two-year yield at 3.73 percent, and the S&P 500 at 7,515. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in mid-2026.

#BondMarket #Stagflation #TreasuryYields #Inflation #Fed #CPI #10YearYield #BreakevenInflation #StockMarket #S&P500 #NASDAQ #MacroTuesdays #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macro #YieldCurve #EconomicOutlook

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Lucas and Luna explore the 'funflation' phenomenon that's reshaping consumer behavior. With CPI at 334.0 and the 10-year yield at 4.57%, they analyze why staying home is no longer the budget-friendly option it used to be. Using specific data on durable goods spending and services inflation, they explain how the economics of leisure have flipped and what it means for the Fed's rate path. No clickbait, just a clear-eyed look at a major shift in household spending patterns.

#Funflation #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #CPI #Staycation #ServicesInflation #FedPolicy #TreasuryYields #DurableGoods #LeisureEconomics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #2026Inflation #FedStance

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With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.57 percent, the bond market is sending a clear signal that it doesn't believe the central bank's narrative. Hosts Lucas and Luna break down the growing divergence between Fed policy and market pricing, explain why the yield curve is steepening even as inflation ticks higher, and explore what this means for the economy heading into the second half of 2026. They point to specific data including the 2-year versus 10-year spread and the rise in breakeven inflation rates to make the case that bond traders are effectively calling the Fed's bluff on rate cuts. Packed with concrete numbers and real-world context, this episode helps listeners understand one of the most important market dynamics of the moment.

#BondMarket #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #InterestRates #Inflation #TreasuryYields #SteepeningCurve #MonetaryPolicy #MacroEconomics #ECB #Lagarde #CPI #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Finance

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Lucas and Luna dive into the 'funflation' trend highlighted in recent headlines — the surprising rise in costs for at-home entertainment, from streaming services to delivery fees and backyard upgrades. Using real data on consumer durables spending and the PCE price index, they explore why staying in is no longer the budget-friendly option it used to be. The conversation challenges the common assumption that cutting back on dining out and travel automatically saves money, and examines what this shift means for inflation measurements and the Fed's rate decisions. Tune in for a fresh perspective on how changing consumer behavior is complicating the economic picture.

#Funflation #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #PCE #FedPolicy #AtHomeEconomy #StreamingCosts #DeliveryFees #EconomicData #MacroTrends #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #ConsumerBehavior #PriceIndex #StayAtHome #SpendingHabits

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The Fed has held its policy rate at 3.63 percent since last September, but core CPI just ticked up to 336.1 and the ten-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.57 percent. On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna examine the uncomfortable divergence between a central bank that wants to cut and a bond market that is pricing in tighter conditions. They drill into the specific numbers: the fed funds rate versus breakeven inflation, the stubborn services inflation component, and what the flat yield curve spread between the two-year and ten-year is telling us about the market's lack of faith in rate cuts. They also discuss how the 57,000 payrolls number from June complicates the Fed's narrative and why the labor force participation rate hitting a 50-year low outside of COVID is the real story the FOMC isn't talking about. A focused look at the policy trap that defines mid-2026.

#FederalReserve #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #CPI #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #MacroEconomics #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Stagflation #ServicesInflation #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #RealRates #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna explore a puzzling disconnect in the U.S. labor market: job openings rose to 7.6 million in May 2026, yet hiring remains stagnant and the labor force participation rate hit a 50-year low. They dig into the data, discuss how skills mismatches, geographic barriers, and long-term structural changes are creating a job market that looks tight on paper but feels slow in practice. With unemployment at 4.2% and payroll growth cooling, the hosts consider what this means for the Fed and for workers. Plus, a brief look at how listener support keeps the show ad-free.

#JobOpenings #HiringSlowdown #LaborForceParticipation #SkillsMismatch #GeographicMobility #FedPolicy #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #EconomicIndicators #MacroEconomics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicPodcast #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #StructuralChange #UpskillChallenge

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In Episode 103 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between consumer spending on durables and the broader economic picture. With real GDP growth at 2.1% but consumer durables spending softening, they explore what the data says about household confidence, the role of high interest rates, and why the bond market's yield curve inversion is flashing a warning. Using the latest CPI and PCE figures, they connect the dots between sticky services inflation and the pullback in big-ticket purchases, and discuss whether the Fed's next move might be shaped more by consumer behavior than by jobs numbers.

#ConsumerDurables #SpendingSlowdown #ServicesInflation #FedPolicy #YieldCurve #MacroEconomy #EconomicData #CPI #PCE #RealGDP #ConsumerConfidence #InterestRates #BondMarket #HouseholdSpending #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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Episode 102 of Macro Tuesdays digs into a surprising divergence: while nominal GDP and real GDP growth have picked up, consumer durables spending is flashing a slowdown signal. Lucas and Luna examine the latest durable goods orders data, the drop in consumer sentiment that hasn't translated into core PCE stickiness, and what this means for the Fed's rate path in July 2026. They dissect why the bond market's yield curve steepening points to different expectations than the headline GDP number suggests, and how the labor market's cooling—payrolls were up just 57,000 in June—reinforces the caution. Specific numbers: durable goods orders down 1.8% month-over-month in May, the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.54%, and core PCE running at 2.9% year-over-year. If you're trying to parse whether the economy is accelerating or decelerating, this episode gives you the framework to see both sides.

#MacroTuesdays #ConsumerDurables #GDPDivergence #FedPolicy #YieldCurve #CorePCE #DurableGoodsOrders #EconomicSlowdown #BondMarket #RateCuts #JobsReport #LaborMarket #ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroEconomics

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