Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report that showed only 57,000 new payrolls while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent. They explore why a weak headline number might actually signal a tighter labor market, how falling labor force participation is distorting the data, and what the Fed is likely watching versus what the markets are pricing. With specific references to the latest nonfarm payrolls, the participation rate hitting its lowest level outside of COVID-19, and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent, this episode helps you see past the headline noise.

#JobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #LaborForceParticipation #FederalReserve #FedFundsRate #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #LaborMarket #ParticipationRate #JobCreation #PayrollGrowth #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #USEconomy #JuneJobs #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of the Covid era, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent in June. Lucas and Luna dig into what's behind this disconnect: the 57,000 payrolls gain, the rise in discouraged workers, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They explore whether structural shifts like early retirement and caregiving are permanent, and how this changes the inflation outlook.

#LaborForceParticipation #JobSeekers #DiscouragedWorkers #UnemploymentRate #NonfarmPayrolls #FedPolicy #StickyInflation #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData #JOLTS #WageGrowth #RetirementTrends #CaregivingEconomy #LaborMarket #InflationOutlook

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On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the startling drop in labor force participation that hit its lowest level in 50 years outside of the COVID era. With a June payrolls gain of just 57,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, they explore why workers are leaving the job market even as job openings remain elevated at 7.6 million. The hosts unpack the disconnect between headline job growth and the shrinking pool of available workers, and what it means for wages, Fed policy, and the broader economy. Plus, a look at how Europe's trade imbalance with China and the ECB's next move add global context. If you've been wondering why the job market feels tight but hiring is slowing, this episode cuts through the noise.

#LaborMarket #LaborForceParticipation #JobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #Unemployment #Wages #Inflation #Fed #ECB #China #Trade #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #JobOpenings #ParticipationRate #Payrolls

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The June jobs report showed payrolls growth of just 57,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent, but the biggest story was hiding in plain sight: the labor force participation rate fell to its lowest level in 50 years outside of the pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into why people are leaving the workforce, where they are going, and what this means for the Fed's rate path. They connect the dots between the shrinking prime-age participation rate, the 7.6 million job openings that aren't being filled, and the surprising resilience of the stock market. If you want to understand why the economy feels sluggish but the S&P 500 is hitting new highs, start here.

#LaborForceParticipation #JobsReport #FedPolicy #FedFundsRate #Inflation #StockMarket #S&P500 #EconomicData #Unemployment #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #WageGrowth #MacroEconomics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MacroTuesdays

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Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle in the latest JOLTS data: job openings rose to 7.59 million in May, yet hiring barely budged and the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.2 percent. They explore how employers are posting roles but not filling them—a phenomenon tied to skill mismatches, geographic sorting, and lingering pandemic-era caution. The hosts contrast this with the big-picture slowdown in payrolls, where June added just 57,000 jobs, and discuss what it means for the Fed as it holds rates at 3.63 percent. A data-rich but conversational look at a labor market that's both tight and tentative.

#JOLTS #JobOpenings #HiringSlowdown #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #FedFundsRate #Unemployment #Payrolls #SkillsGap #EconomicData #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #USJobs #Inflation #BondMarket #YieldCurve

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On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a rare market signal: the yield curve is steepening even though the Fed hasn't budged from 3.63 percent. The ten-year Treasury yield hit 4.47 percent last week, while the two-year stayed at 3.70. That's the widest gap since early 2023. The hosts explore two competing narratives — one about term premium and deficit fears, the other about a potential soft landing — and use the latest JOLTS data (7.6 million openings) and ADP's June payroll miss (98,000) to weigh which story the bond market is actually telling. They also discuss what this means for mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and the Fed's next move.

#YieldCurve #FedRate363 #TreasuryYields #MacroTuesdays #BondMarket #SteepeningCurve #TermPremium #JOLTS #ADP #JobOpenings #SoftLanding #EconomicData #July2026 #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MarketSignal

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Lucas and Luna dig into the latest initial jobless claims data — down to 215,000 — and ask why layoffs remain so low even as other indicators like private payrolls and consumer spending show clear softening. They explore the 'labor hoarding' phenomenon, the pandemic-era lesson that kept companies reluctant to cut headcount, and what it means for the Fed's next move. Using the ADP miss and the divergence between job openings and actual hiring, they make the case that the labor market is sending two conflicting signals at once.

#JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #InitialJoblessClaims #ADP #PrivatePayrolls #LaborHoarding #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #JobOpenings #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #Employment #FedFundsRate #Hiring #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been haunting macro watchers in mid-2026: core PCE inflation has been stuck near 3.4 percent for months, while the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent — historically a level that should cool price pressures. They break down why this time is different, pointing to shelter costs that refuse to normalize, a tight labor market that's boosting service-sector wages, and the Fed's effective funds rate stuck at 3.63. Using the latest CPI and PCE data from May 2026, they explore whether the relationship between unemployment and inflation — the Phillips curve — is officially broken, or if it just takes longer to work through a post-pandemic economy. A specific, number-driven episode for listeners who want to understand why inflation isn't budging.

#Inflation #CorePCE #PhillipsCurve #FederalReserve #Unemployment #CPI #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket #ShelterCosts #ServiceInflation #WageGrowth #StickyInflation #MacroEconomics #EconomicsPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #PolicyAnalysis

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In Episode 83 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been quietly building all spring: the Fed Funds rate has been stuck at 3.63 percent since March, and Core PCE just hit 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023. How can the Fed hold rates steady while inflation reaccelerates? The hosts examine the relationship between the interest-on-reserves rate, the effective Fed Funds rate, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.22 percent. They explore whether the bond market is sending a different signal than the CPI data, and what it means for the Fed's next move. Anchored by live data from June 30, 2026, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at why inflation is proving stickier than expected — and what it might take to break the pattern. No hot takes, just the numbers and what they imply for investors and policymakers.

#FedFundsRate #StickyInflation #CorePCE #InterestOnReserves #BreakevenInflation #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #FedHoldsSteady #InflationPuzzle #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #CentralBanking #RealRates #NeutralRate #LucasAndLuna #Ep83

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Core PCE inflation hit 3.4 percent in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna drill into why this persistent inflation is different from the 2021-2023 spike: services inflation is now the driver, not goods. They examine the breakdown—shelter, medical care, and financial services—and what it means for the Fed stuck at 3.63 percent. The bond market's reaction tells a story too: ten-year yields falling 2.7 percent in the past week, suggesting traders see this as sticky but not accelerating. Lucas argues the Fed has limited room to cut without fueling asset bubbles, while Luna questions whether the central bank's framework is outdated. A concrete look at the inflation that won't quit.

#CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #ServicesInflation #ShelterCosts #BondMarket #TenYearYield #FedFundsRate #EconomicData #May2026 #StickyInflation #MacroEconomics #BusinessNews #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #EconomicOutlook

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