Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in late May, the highest level since early this year, even as the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what rising claims might be telling us that headline payrolls aren't — including emerging weakness in interest-rate-sensitive sectors like construction and manufacturing. They also discuss how the Fed's current policy stance interacts with sticky services inflation and what Wednesday's CPI report could reveal. Plus, a look at why markets are pricing in rate cuts later this year despite a still-tight labor market.

#JoblessClaims #Unemployment #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CPI #Inflation #LaborMarket #EconomicData #Construction #Manufacturing #RecessionSignal #MacroEconomics #FOMC #FedPolicy #PolicyLag #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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New York Fed survey data shows household financial concerns hitting their highest level since July 2022, despite a still-low 4.3% unemployment rate. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect: why are consumers more anxious than the headline jobs numbers suggest? They explore the role of persistent inflation, dwindling pandemic savings, and rising long-term unemployment. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.35% and core CPI still above 3%, the hosts ask whether the Fed's pause is justified. Plus: a look at how proposed tariffs on 60 economies could add to consumer uncertainty. This episode connects the dots between macro data and household reality.

#HouseholdFinances #NewYorkFedSurvey #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #Unemployment #LongTermUnemployment #FederalReserve #CoreCPI #Tariffs #MacroEconomics #EconomicOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Economics #Podcast #FinancialAnxiety #PandemicSavings

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Unemployment is 4.3 percent and job openings surged to 7.6 million. So why is long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—spiking to levels not seen since the 2010-2014 recovery? Lucas and Luna dig into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. They connect the dots between the JOLTS data, the rise in long-term jobless claims, and what it means for workers losing skills and bargaining power. A sharp, data-driven look at the mismatch the headline numbers are hiding.

#LongTermUnemployment #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #NewYorkFed #ConsumerExpectations #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #MacroTuesdays #JobMarket #SkillsMismatch #HouseholdFinances #FedPolicy #LaborForce

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Lucas and Luna dig into a growing divergence in the labor market: even though the headline unemployment rate has held at 4.3 percent for months, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has jumped sharply. They explore what initial jobless claims at 225,000 and a surge in long-term unemployment really signal about the health of the U.S. economy. Using fresh data from early June 2026, the hosts explain how two Fed metrics—claims and unemployment—are telling different stories about worker distress, and what that means for the rate-cut timeline. If you've been confused by strong payroll numbers but rising anxiety in hiring, this episode connects the dots.

#JoblessClaims #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #UnemploymentRate #InitialClaims #EconomicData #FOMC #RateCuts #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #USEconomy #Employment #HiringSlowdown #StructuralUnemployment #BusinessPodcast #EconomicTrends #LaborForce

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Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in late May, up from 212,000 the prior week — the highest level in over a year. Meanwhile, the headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3% and hasn't budged. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening beneath the surface: a labor market that looks stable in the monthly numbers but is showing cracks in the weekly data. They explore how rising layoffs in tech and services are being masked by still-strong hiring in healthcare and government, and what the divergence between claims and the unemployment rate tells us about the economy's direction. Plus, a quick word on how listener support keeps the show ad-free and independent.

#JoblessClaims #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #WeeklyClaims #Layoffs #Hiring #TechLayoffs #ServiceSector #HealthcareJobs #GovernmentJobs #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LaborEconomics

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The headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, but a hidden shift is underway: long-term unemployment — people out of work for 27 weeks or more — is climbing sharply. On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest labor market data to explain why this divergence matters more than the top-line jobs number. They break down the May JOLTS report showing job openings surging to 7.6 million, the disconnect between hiring and wage growth, and what the rising share of long-term jobless means for Fed policy and the broader economy. Using fresh data from the June 7, 2026 labor market snapshot, they explore whether the labor market is really as tight as it looks — and why the bond market might be pricing in a different story. Specific numbers, real policy implications, no filler.

#LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JOLTS #JobsReport #FedPolicy #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LaborForce #WageGrowth #JobOpenings #MayJobs #HiddenUnemployment #StructuralUnemployment #LaborMarketDivergence

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On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the yield curve—the 10-year Treasury yield is now 4.54 percent while the 2-year sits at 4.28 percent, widening the spread to 26 basis points. They argue that this steepening, often a classic recession warning when the curve inverts, is actually a sign of something different in mid-2026. With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate flat at 2.36 percent, the hosts explain why bond markets are pricing in a 'softish' landing rather than a crash. They also connect the steepening to the recent surge in job openings to 7.6 million and the drop in the Nasdaq by 5.1 percent over five days, showing how sectors are rotating away from tech and into value. No doom-mongering—just a clear look at what the bond market is really telling us about growth and inflation expectations.

#YieldCurve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #SteepeningCurve #RecessionSignals #MacroEconomics #InterestRates #JobOpenings #Nasdaq #TechSelloff #SoftLanding #InflationExpectations #EconomicData #PolicyOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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This episode of Macro Tuesdays drills into the ongoing yield curve inversion — the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.28%, the 10-year at 4.54%, keeping the spread negative since mid-2022. Lucas and Luna discuss why this historically reliable recession signal hasn't yet delivered a downturn, whether the lag is different this time, and what the recent flattening of the curve means for growth expectations. With the S&P 500 down 2.8% in a week and the Nasdaq off 5.1%, the hosts examine whether markets are finally pricing in the slowdown the yield curve has been signaling. They also touch on the jobs report due Friday and how a strong labor market keeps defying the inversion's usual logic.

#YieldCurveInversion #RecessionRisk #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #JobsReport #StockMarket #S&P500 #Nasdaq #2YearYield #10YearYield #MacroEconomics #Inflation #LaborMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays

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With the May jobs report coming Friday, most analysts are focused on the headline payroll number. Lucas and Luna dig into the data no one is watching: the surge in long-term unemployment that hit 1.8 million in April, even as job openings rebounded to 7.6 million. They explain why the hidden shift in labor market composition matters more than the topline, and how it connects to the Fed's next move. Plus, the bond market is sending a signal about wage growth that contradicts the official numbers. A data-heavy episode for anyone trying to read between the lines of the monthly jobs report.

#JobsReport #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #BondMarket #WageGrowth #JOLTS #InitialJoblessClaims #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #May2026 #UnemploymentRate #ADPPayroll #TreasuryYields #InflationExpectations

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The May jobs report is coming Friday, but beneath the headline payroll numbers lies a troubling trend: long-term unemployment is surging. While the overall jobless rate holds at 4.3 percent, the number of workers out of work for 27 weeks or more has jumped sharply. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data, including the JOLTS report showing job openings surged to 7.6 million in April, and explain why the composition of unemployment matters more than the rate itself. They explore the hidden costs for workers' skills, wages, and the broader economy, and what this means for the Fed's rate path. No hype, just the numbers and what they signal.

#LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #LaborMarket #Economics #FederalReserve #JOLTS #Unemployment #WageGrowth #Macro #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #EconomicData #MayJobs #LaborForce #SkillErosion #Hiring

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