Grocery Guru Episode 11: Grocery Sales Christmas 2020: Who Are the Winners and the Turkeys?

Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the eleventh episode of Grocery Guru: Are there any Christmas Turkey Leftovers? It's that time of the year where we get to reflect upon the results of the Christmas 2020 trading period. Who were the winners and who were the turkeys when we take a look at the Christmas grocery sales 2020?

You Can Read the Full Grocery Sales Christmas 2020 Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

Welcome to, this is week 11 of the Grocery Guru, with Andrew Grant. Andrew, how are you?

Andrew Grant:

Yes. Happy New Year, Darren. Season's greetings.

Darren A. Smith:

Yes. Thank you. How was your Christmas?

Andrew Grant:

Yeah, very good. Very good. I can't remember what part of lockdown we were in, but yeah, it was a pretty good Christmas, despite.

Darren A. Smith:

Yes. Then we had the announcement on Monday. But, let's ignore that, move on straight onto grocery stuff. So, I believe the title of the episode you've given us this week is, Are There Any Christmas Turkey Leftovers? Which has intrigued me, because I know nothing about what we're going to talk about this week.

Andrew Grant:

Okay. Christmas turkeys left over, maybe was the full title.

Darren A. Smith:

Ah, that one.

Andrew Grant:

No. It's that time of the year where obviously, you get to see who were the winners and the turkeys over Christmas. So the latest Kantar data came out, I think on Tuesday or maybe Wednesday. Tuesday, I think. So here we go, Darren. Which multiple do you think was the best performing over Christmas, by a long chalk?

Are there any Christmas Turkeys Left?

 

Darren A. Smith:

Really? Okay. Best multiple. And is this growth on growth?

Andrew Grant:

Sorry. Let's say the best grocer.

Darren A. Smith:

The best grocer, okay. Is this growth on growth, or best overall market share?

Andrew Grant:

No, no. This is market share. This is growth in the however many weeks up to Christmas.

Darren A. Smith:

Okay. All right.

Andrew Grant:

12 weeks up to the 27th of December, the country's fastest-growing food retailer was?

Darren A. Smith:

I'm going to go Aldi. Now, I'm going to go, Aldi, because I think they were doing very well. We shopped in late December, or just before Christmas Day, and we found things like prawn rings, which were cracking value.

Andrew Grant:

Okay.

Darren A. Smith:

It was something like £3.80 for this prawn ring of 70 prawns.

Andrew Grant:

Okay. All right. So your answer is Aldi?

Darren A. Smith:

It is.

Andrew Grant:

I'll change the question then. Which was the worst-performing retailer over Christmas? Because it's the same answer, Darren.

Darren A. Smith:

Oh, is it?

Andrew Grant:

Oh, yeah. Absolutely. Aldi only showed 6% growth in a market that grew by 11.3.

Darren A. Smith:

Wow.

Andrew Grant:

I know. I was shocked for about five seconds, but there's a very obvious answer.

Darren A. Smith:

All right. So obvious that I don't know it. I can't even reach for it. So let me just understand. So they were five points of growth behind the average, Aldi?

Andrew Grant:

Behind the average. And when I tell you who the biggest, or when you guess who the biggest grower is, they were 30-odd points behind the biggest grower.

Darren A. Smith:

Okay.

Andrew Grant:

So what have we been talking about, quite a few of the last 10-odd episodes? What's been the biggest change in grocery this year because of the pandemic?

Darren A. Smith:

Okay. So we're talking about online shopping, I guess.

Andrew Grant:

Okay. And what haven't Aldi got?

Darren A. Smith:

Online shopping. Very good point, Andrew. Very good point. I think you've caught me out.

Andrew Grant:

Absolutely. So I think Aldi has really, really suffered. If you think the last three or four years we've expected to see double-digit growth from the likes of Aldi and Lidl. A lot of it because of new stores, obviously. But yeah,

Episode 31 – Leading Organisational Change: Interview with Jackie Lanham

Jackie Lanham is Hilton Food Group's Chief People Officer, with a career history that tells a story of leading change in all its forms to help businesses to achieve their goals. It comprises of 3 key phases:

HR Generalist and Business Partner covering all aspects of HR.

Large leadership roles establishing and running HR centralised and shared services.

Developing and implementing strategies to ensure business success now and for the future through culture, capability and organisation design.

What really makes her tick?

Change. Creativity. Performance. Fun. Results.

You Can Read the Full Transcript of Our Interview With Jackie Lanham Below

Darren A. Smith:

Welcome to the MBM block. We are absolutely delighted to welcome Jackie Lanham. Jackie, welcome.

Jackie Lanham:

Thank you, Darren.

Darren A. Smith:

This is our blog where we talk to experts and people who practice in the field right now, and we're talking to them about soft skills. Jackie and I know each other and we have selected the topic, well, Jackie did, of leading organisational change. Is that right?

Hilton Food Group's Chief People Officer

 

Jackie Lanham:

Yeah, absolutely spot on.

Darren A. Smith:

Good. I thought if we've chosen another topic, I've really stuffed up the first part of this, but that's okay.

Jackie Lanham:

We can do buying handbags if you like.

Darren A. Smith:

I'll tell you about a friend afterwards who did a vlog on all her handbooks. No, maybe one for another time. We have the pleasure of Jackie's company for about half an hour. We have a bunch of Google questions. So these are the questions that people typically ask around this topic. We're going to put them to Jackie. But before I waffle on anymore Jackie, would you tell us a little bit about you please?

Jackie Lanham:

Course. And thank you so much, Darren, for inviting me here to have this conversation with you. I'm really looking forward to it. As Darren said, my name is Jackie Lanham. I am the chief people and culture officer for Hilton Food Group. And Hilton Food Group is a premier food packaging organisation. Absolutely focused on the protein category. Well known in meats, also getting well-known in fish, and also in vegan and vegetarian products as well, on an international basis.

Jackie Lanham:

I love my job. I get the opportunity to talk to people across Europe, into Australia, and also have the wonderful opportunity of building things into new countries, most recently, Belgium. In my role, I'm really responsible for facilitating our thinking around our people strategy, and really ensuring that our people love working for us, are fully engaged in what we do, because we know people who love their work, love working for the business, produce the best.

Darren A. Smith:

Very true. Very true. Yeah, very true. Okay. And you haven't just worked at Hilton... I say just.

Jackie Lanham:

Oh, no, no, no. This white hair is earned, unfortunately. I got into human resources pretty quickly, and I have to say, I love it. Absolutely, felt very lucky to find my forte really early on in my career. I've worked across retail for the Co-operative and Tesco within the U.K. And also, I've worked on an international basis within the financial services' sector. A period of 11 years with JPMorgan Chase, and a period of seven years with, also, Aviva, in the insurance sector.

Jackie Lanham:

I think what I absolutely adore about the profession I'm in, is the fact that it's pretty transferable across different sectors. And I think I'm at my best when I'm working in businesses that are absolutely focused on delivering to the customer. Yeah, that what I enjoy doing, and really working with businesses who have that at their heart.

Darren A. Smith:

Brilliant. I'm going to go off at a slight tangent, and hopefully, you'll be okay with it-

Jackie Lanham:

You did.

Darren A. Smith:

Grocery Guru Podcast | Episode 10 - Good Riddance 2020! Our Predictions for 2021...

Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith from MBMB in the tenth episode of Grocery Guru about 2021 Predictions.

You Can Read the Full 2021 Predictions Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

Welcome to episode 10, with the Grocery Guru that is Andrew Grant. How are you?

Andrew Grant:

Hello Darren. Yes, Merry Christmas.

Darren A. Smith:

Merry Christmas to you. We're the 17th December, not long until the big one, until the big, fat man comes.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. One week, one week, six nights, seven nights, something like that. Yeah.

Darren A. Smith:

Seven nights. All right. In this episode we said that we would talk about predictions for '21, trying to put 2020 behind us with a big boo and a mask.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. No. Absolutely. I mean, obviously, it's been a pretty horrible year... everybody around the planet. We won't be doing this again until it is 2021. So yeah, farewell 2020, won't be missed. What's 2021 going to look like? I've been thinking of a few things that may or may not happen. I don't know about you if you have any predictions?

What are your predictions?

 

Darren A. Smith:

Well, I've got a few predictions, so I'm going to share my first one with you. I've got a few and I'm sure you have too. I'm going to predict that the title of the national account manager is going to be wiped. What I mean by that is national account managers traditionally looked after the account, looked after the buyer, did the negotiations. I think they're all going to be turning into shopper insights managers, insights managers, category managers. I think it's going to go.

Andrew Grant:

And NAM becomes a SIM.

Darren A. Smith:

And NAM becomes a SIM, yes.

Andrew Grant:

I think we talked about that last week, didn't we? Absolutely. I think you said that any national account manager that's been [inaudible 00:03:19] months and maybe is slightly worried about his or her future, the future gets on top of the data. Become an expert at turning that data into insight so that you can sit on Zoom with your supermarket buyers and show them that you know their shoppers better than they do.

Darren A. Smith:

Like it, like it. All right. That's my first prediction, call me Nostradamus. What's yours?

Andrew Grant:

Mine, I think this is a very, very safe bet of £10 of your money, Darren. I know you don't like spending your money on bets. But Amazon gets added to GSCOP, so the Grocery Code Adjudicator makes Amazon the 14th, I think I would be right, the 14th retailer to be covered by the code. With all this COVID stuff Amazon's business has just skyrocketed this year, and possibly almost under the radar. But I think 2021 will be the year when the new adjudicator goes, "This is a massive, massive food business now." We're also going to have the first Amazon ghost stores, the checkout-less, completely checkout-less electronic stores. They'll probably open first quarter. And probably just the publicity [inaudible 00:04:39] publicity over those will raise the awareness. So yeah, Amazon to be added to GSCOP.

Darren A. Smith:

Okay. All right. I think you're right, to make 14. So that will be Mark White, the new GCA Groceries Code Adjudicator.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. If you're him you're just coming into that fabled first 100 days, what's the thing that you can say you've done in your first 100 days?

Darren A. Smith:

Very true. Very true. All right. All right. My prediction-

Andrew Grant:

I think that's a good headline.

Darren A. Smith:

Sorry, go on. A good headline?

Andrew Grant:

No, a good 100-day headline for him is, "Yeah, I've added Amazon to the list of covered retailers."

Darren A. Smith:

Very true. Very true. All right. So currently 39% of us buy our groceries online. So that's 39%, so let's call it 40%, 4 out of 10 of us are buying groceries online. I'm going to make an easy prediction, 2021 that's going to topple above 50,

Grocery Guru Episode 9: The Three Ghosts of Christmas

Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the eighth episode of Grocery Guru: The Three Ghosts of Christmas; Past, Present and Future.

You Can Read The Full Three Ghosts of Christmas Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

Hello. Welcome to episode nine of the Grocery Guru. We're here with Andrew Grant.

Andrew Grant:

Hi, Darren.

Darren A. Smith:

Hello. You're looking very festive with your Christmas tree.

Andrew Grant:

Yes, look. Yeah. All nice and ready. Not a lot of presents under the tree. A bit worried. It must be these port delays that we're hearing about.

Darren A. Smith:

It must be. Now one of my favourite films is the Christmas Scrooge Muppet Carol with Michael Caine.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. Michael Caine.

Darren A. Smith:

Now I've said that because I've set you up in the... I don't know, you want to talk about the three ghosts, is that right?

Let's about the three ghosts...

 

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. No, the Christmas Carol. Yes. Charles Dickens, the Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present and Future. They visited Scrooge on Christmas Eve and yeah, I think this is really aimed at, I guess, at account managers, because obviously, the Ghost of Christmas Past, both you and I as buyers used to see, I don't know, what 20 account managers a week?

Darren A. Smith:

Yeah, yeah. Or more. Yeah, yeah. The whole variety. Yeah.

Andrew Grant:

They'd spend their day driving down the M1, they'd turn up with that Greggs sausage roll pastry on their suit. They'd have a nice half-hour chat with us. We might even give them a cup of coffee. And then they're off to have a sleep in the lay-by for the afternoon.

Darren A. Smith:

They were all hardworking as well.

Andrew Grant:

I'm sure they were all very hardworking but unfortunately, the fact of Christmas present is, I'm not sure there'll be a single account manager out there that has actually had a physical meeting with a buyer this year. And we've said in a couple of these episodes, haven't we, that the last nine months has compressed 10 years' worth of change to everything. To all our lives, but, just as much grocer, I think we said it with home shopping, home deliveries and now at the stage where they were expected to be in 2030, not in 2020.

Darren A. Smith:

And wasn't it the CEO of Airbnb that said something like 18 years of development has been crushed in nine months.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. This nine months has changed our lives at warp speed. And just thinking of the account manager, nine months without a physical meeting with a buyer, lucky probably even to get Zoom meetings.

Darren A. Smith:

Yes.

Andrew Grant:

So the future, looking forward to the Ghost of Christmas Future is, and not wanting to be too bleak about it, but I think buyers have become a lot more self-sufficient, a lot less needy of their account managers in the last nine months. And I don't see that changing.

Darren A. Smith:

Well, that's very true. And also I'm just going to touch on the Ghost of Christmas Past a little more, in that those account managers, some of them are excellent at their interpersonal skills, building relationships and that's all flipped on its head where they're now trying to do it over Zoom, which is much, much harder.

Andrew Grant:

Darren, remind us of your Zoom statistic. Why is Zoom so difficult?

Darren A. Smith:

Well, Zoom's difficult because the eye can see 576 million pixels. Now that just means we're in higher resolutions. When I see you face to face, you're in high resolution, I can see all the corners of your mouth changing, your eyebrows raised, all those nonverbal cues that could be an idea of what you're doing or what you're really saying. But over here, my laptop's running about a million pixels, maybe a million and a half. So it's like watching someone through a fog. I can't see all the little changes that you're making that give me the idea of what you really mean.

Grocery Guru Ep8: The Future of High Street

Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the eighth episode of Grocery Guru: The Future of High Street.

You Can Read the Full Future of High Street Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

... keeping their staff safe, understanding the rules, blah, blah, blah. You're right. They've done it. Do you say they were cajoled into doing this?

Andrew Grant:

Who knows. Who knows the discussions I had. I think the important thing is that it's been done and I guess that's sort of the breaking news. So it almost links to what I was going to talk about today, which is they're also having to, as we've said in a couple of the previous episodes of this, they're having to deal with change to their market where 10 years of change has happened in six months. [crosstalk 00:00:00:38].

Darren A. Smith:

Yeah, yeah.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. And the costs involved in just coping with that must be immense.

Darren A. Smith:

And what does that mean? I mean, we've got the future of the High Street. I'm sure that's well documented. And particularly we've got Debenhams, Arcadia recent. The future of our High Street, I mean, is it all going to be coffee shops and hairdressers?

The Future of High Street

 

Andrew Grant:

Well, it's interesting. I think, unfortunately, you get the pain before the game. I saw over the weekend, Bill Grimsby, Bill Grimsey, I don't even remember him, used to run Iceland and then Wix. Seasoned retail professional. Got a lot of time for the guys. A really good operator. I think he interviewed me once but didn't give me the job. So anyway, not everyone's perfect. But he basically was saying that people like himself spent the eighties and the nineties creating Lego brick towns where you can remember every single town was a copycat. There was a Boots, a WHSmiths. Also a Tesco. There was a Curry's, there was a God going back, Timothy Wise, Radio Rentals, and every town was a carbon copy.

Darren A. Smith:

And I remember as a kid and then becoming an adult, you, you went from towns being very different. You've visited towns as a kid and you saw different things. And then as an adult, we went to towns and it was exactly the same damn thing in every town. But now that's going to go completely off.

Andrew Grant:

That is the opportunity that supermarkets, as we said, they will be different. They're not going to have deli counters. As we said, I think last week or the week before, these urban fulfilment centres where half of the store turns dark and the new Lego brick is online. So online is increasing, how do you differentiate online because you can offer everything online? So people love the convenience of online. They love the convenience of the van turning up outside the house, but it's not exactly exciting, is it?

Darren A. Smith:

No, it's not. I mean, one of the things that have happened is speed. You can now get something in about five hours of ordering it off some website.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah.

Darren A. Smith:

Some in 12 hours, 24. The days of taking 3 to 5 business days are gone. So that [inaudible 00:03:05].

Andrew Grant:

People want to touch and feel. They want to touch, feel, smell, experience stuff before they buy it. Particularly, maybe not necessarily food but certainly think of clothes. So how many times do you buy clothes and they don't fit or they're not quite what you expected. People will still want shops.

Darren A. Smith:

The returns policy comes in and it has to be absolutely open. Free delivery, free try on, send back whatever you don't want I'll put the money in your account before it arrives to us.

Andrew Grant:

Which is where Amazon, whether you love them or don't love them, absolutely brilliant. But anyway, I've got a quiz for you. I've got a quiz for you, Darren. So future of the High Street, there has been research done in terms of what will encourage people into stores if there aren't any deli counters,

Grocery Guru Ep7: Who's the Pantomime Villain?

Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the seventh episode of Grocery Guru: Who's the Pantomime Villain?

You Can Read the Full Pantomime Villain Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

Hi, Andrew, welcome to week six. How are you doing?

Andrew Grant:

Is it week six or week seven? I can't remember. But yes, I'm good.

Darren A. Smith:

Definitely one of them. This is week six, we think, with the Grocery Guru that is Andrew Grant. Now, he's looking like he's just stepped off an Eminem video.

Andrew Grant:

I'm not sure how many people can remember that far back, but yeah, it's quite cold here. I think we're moving into the proper weather for the proper season.

Darren A. Smith:

We are. We are. So this week, what are we talking about?

Andrew Grant:

Well, I think, as I said, we're moving into Christmas season, despite the government possibly doing its best to stop us enjoying ourselves, whether that's right or wrong. I think it's pantomime season. I think it's time to start rolling out the, "He's over there", and, "Oh yes, he did."

Who's the Pantomime Villain?

 

Darren A. Smith:

"Oh no, he's not."

Andrew Grant:

"Oh no, he's not." Have a look at maybe some of the villains, pantomime villains for the season.

Darren A. Smith:

All right. And pantomime season's coming up. May happen, may not. But I get your point. Who's our villain that you want to talk about?

Andrew Grant:

Well, I just think because we're trying to keep these things topical, the British Brands Group, which encompasses some of the biggest UK brands, published a review this week of retailer compliance to GSCOP.

Darren A. Smith:

Oh, okay. Okay. [crosstalk 00:01:24] For those that don't know is a piece of law governing UK supermarkets.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. And every year legally, each of the 13 designated supermarkets has to write a report to the adjudicator. The government official that runs GSCOP telling her, now him, how they've done. British brands have collated all that. And yeah, here we are. Let's have a guess. So the, the country's largest retailer is...

Darren A. Smith:

Tesco.

Andrew Grant:

How many complaints of all the many thousands of suppliers they deal with and the billions that they spend with suppliers each year. How many complaints do you think they had last year? Sorry, alleged complaints.

Darren A. Smith:

Okay good. So these are breaches of GSCOP and by the way, you worded the question, I should say thousands, but I'm going to guess it's not.

Andrew Grant:

Okay. Well, they're alleged breaches, Darren.

Darren A. Smith:

Alleged breaches. All right, so I'm going to go with 250.

Andrew Grant:

Okay. It was 45-

Andrew Grant:

...which the worst some headlines in the business, press trade press over the week saying, "Tesco are the villain. Tesco, the GSCOP villain." With 45 alleged breaches amongst I reckon that's less than 2.5% of their suppliers who have made an alleged breach. My view that's pretty good.

Darren A. Smith:

Yeah. But you and I have talked about this before and I've played along for the last couple of minutes, but here's where I don't play along. There are about 10,000 suppliers out there and 45 complaints are bugger all. And that is not a measure of how well they're doing. It's just not.

Andrew Grant:

Okay. Why don't we then divide the 45 complaints into how many billions of pounds the supermarket spend with suppliers. And it will come out... You'll run out of zeros after the point.

Darren A. Smith:

You will be. Here's a stat for you. So I got this one from LinkedIn in preparation for our week six, [crosstalk 00:03:31] and I should read it to you. "For every complaint, not GSCOP specific, but every complaint there are 26 other unhappy customers." Now I worked out that last year, last 12 months, there have been 154 breaches, alleged breaches of GSCOP. And if I times that by 26, I arrived at about 4,000.

Grocery Guru Ep 6: It's CPI Time!

Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the sixth episode of Grocery Guru: It's CPI Time!

You Can Read the Full CPI Time! Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

We're in week six. Last week, we spoke about the demise of the deli counter and how it was a bit like a turkey at Christmas. Remember?

Andrew Grant:

Remind me of the turkey at Christmas analogy.

It's CPI Time!

 

Darren A. Smith:

I was trying to say that a counter is a bit... You don't want to get rid of it. You don't want to get rid of turkeys at Christmas. No one really likes how they taste, but they are Christmas.

Andrew Grant:

But given what this stage has done, I'd say they are stuffed.

Darren A. Smith:

Yeah. All right. What are we talking about this week? In week six.

Andrew Grant:

Well, I know you like a good riddle at the start of these conversations we have, get you and get your brain matter going during the lockdown. So here, here are our test top three things guaranteed to annoy a buyer, hang on a second now. I'll give you the first two and you've got to guess the third.

Darren A. Smith:

Right? Go.

Andrew Grant:

No. Top three things not to say to your buyer. If you're an account manager if you don't want to ruin their day. One, I'm having an affair with your nearest and dearest.

Darren A. Smith:

Fair.

Andrew Grant:

Two. I have just run over your favourite pet cat or dog. Now, obviously, depending on the buyer, those first two could be interchangeable.

Darren A. Smith:

Yeah.

Andrew Grant:

But what was the third one guaranteed to put your buyer into a bad mood?

Darren A. Smith:

I have, we've just managed to not deliver the stock that you absolutely need to do for Easter Christmas or a big promotion.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. A bump in the road. No, the, the number three guaranteed to ruin that day is we're putting through a cost price increase.

Darren A. Smith:

Yes.

Andrew Grant:

As I said, other than you running over their favourite Pet, or having an affair with their nearest and dearest, it's probably the worst thing you can say to a buyer.

Darren A. Smith:

So what about when suppliers used to say, but if you put the prices up, You'll make more money?

Darren A. Smith:

Yeah but. Yeah. I think you see with the buyer. A Couple of things is one, will the market, particularly the current market take a retail price increase. Everybody watches everybody, but it's actually a lot more personal than that. Cause you've been a buyer. I've been a buyer. You know, you've got to sit in that trading room on a Monday morning and the boss goes through all the figures and everybody gets a bit of a beating because the figures aren't good enough. And then he, or she turns to everybody and goes, right? What news we got guys and ladies and everybody else has got fantastic news. Like, Oh my new product, number one, I've just won a prize for whatever. And then Darren has to put his hand up and go, oh, I've just accepted a 10% cost price increase from Fred blogs, grocery company.

Darren A. Smith:

It's like a hit on my bottom line of X hundred thousand. So the next question comes from He or She manager, how the hell are you going to get that back? Well, you've just spent a week negotiating and trying to figure out how to get what was 18% down to 9%. And now you've got to figure out how to close the gap?

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. Normally it just ends up not even with a challenge like that. It's just like you map it.

Darren A. Smith:

Or worse. Yes.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. Now its the rest of your 8 weeks ruined. So anyway, so come to the point, cost price increases, I think are obviously inevitable. Particularly after this year where so many suppliers have had to spend enormous amounts of money, during lockdown to either be COVID safe or to get extra deliveries out there, et cetera, et cetera.

Andrew Grant:

So costs have been rising and we have the big B word happening in January. Still,

Grocery Guru Ep 5: Discussing the Deli Counter Demise

We all love them, buy a treat from them occasionally, but have they had their day? Are we witnessing the demise of the Deli Counter? Is it time to put them out to pasture?

You Can Read the Full Deli Counter Demise Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

Welcome to week five with the Grocery Guru, there is Andrew Grant. Andrew, how are you doing?

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. Good morning. I think it's still good morning, Darren. But suffice to say I'm in mourning.

Darren A. Smith:

You are in mourning.

Andrew Grant:

See what I did there? See what I did there?

The Demise of the Deli Counter

 

Darren A. Smith:

I see that was a good double pun. I understand you're in mourning because of some news about some counters. Is that right?

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. Sainsbury's closing all their meat, fish, and deli counters, which was ground zero for me as a fresh face graduate buying fish for Sainsbury's fish counters. So a little bit of history ending for me so hence the small little tear of regret.

Darren A. Smith:

So the retail landscape, the high street is changing, counters are going for one of the big supermarkets. But interestingly, I also read that Waitrose has taken advantage of this and put more lines, extended their range on their counters.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah, it's interesting, isn't it? I've got a sneaking suspicion that a person with a calculator and a red pen made the decision to close those counters. If you dial into their half-year results presentation to the city, they said they'll save 60 million by closing the counters. Now their underlying profits are really 300 million, so that's a good 20% of profits that will get boosted when they close them. So I think it's very much been a financial decision.

Darren A. Smith:

And I'm not surprised by that. Now, did you know that MBM used to have a sister business called MCM?

Andrew Grant:

Well, I do remember you used to be in the counter business because the other point I was going to make it all right, you're going to save 60 million in operating costs. But what do you do with all that metal and perspex and refrigeration and yeah, it's an expensive kit.

Darren A. Smith:

So we used to be very big into counters. At one point for four years, we coached all the food counter people at Sainsbury's and then made a great market share difference for them. They then took it in-house and we took the idea to Tesco, had a team of 60 people coaching all the people behind counters. So I know a bit about it. Now what one of the Tesco's guys said at the time, was the counters was the window to fresh. And if shoppers saw counters looking good and feeling good and it was intangible, they said that was something we need to keep. Because it keeps shoppers coming in, even though they didn't buy from it.

Andrew Grant:

Well, I think that was unfortunately the reality. Having spent a bit of time on fresh fish and deli, unfortunately, yeah, it's poor Mrs. Miggins or Mr. Miggins shuffling along to buy six slices of crumbed ham for their lunches. So the only stuff that ever sold was the basic stuff, your pork pies and your breaded ham and cheddar cheese, which obviously you can also get in pre-pack. So the only people who tended to buy on the deli counters were people wanting tiny, tiny portions. And yeah, I can remember doing it myself trying to launch exotic stuff, exotic hams, and exotic sausages and God knows what. It just didn't sell and then after about six weeks, you get all the store managers and area managers complaining about waste. So you took the easy decision. I think it's a real shame.

Darren A. Smith:

It is. It is a shame. Unfortunately, I see counters and always did, a bit like a turkey at Christmas. I wouldn't have a Christmas without one but I don't necessarily think about it first.

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. Yeah. It is going to be interesting to see whether the decision will come and bite Sainsbury's in the bum.

Grocery Guru Episode 3: How the New Normal May Impact Holidays

In this episode of The Grocery Guru, we discuss the ‘new normal’ and how this is likely to affect Christmas. Touch challenges for our industry during Covid-19.

You Can Read the Full New Normal Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

Hello. We're on week three of the Grocery Guru. That is Andrew Grant. Hello.

Andrew Grant:

Hi Darren. You okay?

Darren A. Smith:

Yeah, I'm good. I'm good. So in our first week, we talked about the UFC's, which were Urban Fulfillment Centers. In our second week, you said to us that category management is dead, very provocative, very emotive, which we had a nice debate about. And in week three, I'm waiting with bated breath. What're we talking about?

New Normal, and New Holidays

 

Andrew Grant:

Well, maybe slightly off-topic, I'm not sure. But Christmas, and what are you buying me, Darren?

Darren A. Smith:

Oh.

Andrew Grant:

Front of my mind.

Darren A. Smith:

I was thinking of a big pair of those monster slippers.

Andrew Grant:

Oh, with Garfield on the front?

Darren A. Smith:

All right. Why is Christmas on your mind? Apart from it's coming up in-

Andrew Grant:

No, just thinking. What is it today? The 27th. So it's the end of October. We are ... in two months' time Christmas will be done.

Darren A. Smith:

Yes. Yes.

Andrew Grant:

And I'm just thinking back. If we think back to sort of the 23rd of January, two months on from then, 23rd of March, when we got ... Boris locked us all down. Did we really expect on the 23rd of Jan, that what happened to us was going to happen? I mean, we knew something was going on in China. There was a city we never heard of called Wuhan, and some people were getting bad colds. Could you ever have expected two months later, us to go into what we've now had for six months?

Darren A. Smith:

No, no, not a chance. Something to do with a bat as well as in the story, wasn't it?

Andrew Grant:

Yeah. Yeah. Some strange seafood market and doing strange things with bats. But yeah, whatever.

Darren A. Smith:

All the people out there talking about grocery. Why are you thinking about it now?

Andrew Grant:

What is the link? Well, I'm just thinking that this is traditionally the time, post-Halloween, when the retailers go into, and I'm going to use the phrase actually, go into Christmas lockdown mode. 1st of November it is all about the home run to Christmas. They start counting back to Christmas Day. So it's Christmas Day minus 56 days, 55 days. All their plans.

This Christmas, we have no idea what might happen. And it was interestingly the COO of Tesco on Monday saying, "There won't be a problem, but we really do suggest you start shopping early." So I think quietly they are petrified that will they be able to supply Christmas? I guess more importantly for them, what sort of Christmas will they supply? And I can imagine the best-sellers are going to be two-meter long Christmas crackers. Socially distanced Christmas crackers. If you want to make some money, get yourself into the two-meter Christmas cracker market.

Darren A. Smith:

Only you. Interesting, I was talking to a client earlier today, and she said that a supermarket was talking to them about contingency. Would they go find a similar supplier like themselves, that should they get COVID, could they then turn on a similar supplier? They were ... Well, the chest was out, the head was back. "No, we're not doing that." But then the supermarket said, "Yeah, you got to."

Andrew Grant:

Well no, think about, and you've been there, think about fresh foods. So grocery and non-foods, the stuff's been ordered for a long time. But you remember the days of making sure all the gate codes hit the 25th of December, and you can only order the cream seven days ahead, I think. The pigs in blankets, four days ahead. The turkeys, eight or nine days ahead. And you're right. I mean only this week, was it,

Grocery Guru Podcast | Episode 1 - Urban Fulfilment Centres

In the Grocery Guru's pilot episode, Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith discuss Urban Fulfilment Centres and how it will affect the UK grocery industry. Find out what UFC’s are, and how they will impact the grocery industry. Tesco is first with Asda hot on their tail.

You Can Read the Full Urban Fulfilment Centres Episode Transcript Below:

Darren A. Smith:

Andrew, how are you doing?

Andrew Grant:

Good morning. I'm very good. A cup of tea. All ready for a few minutes' chat.

Darren A. Smith:

Cool. So, we're here with the Grocery Guru, the man that is Andrew Grant, and this is our weekly slot for about 10 to 15 minutes, let's see. We're going to ask him what the latest is going on in the world of grocery. We wanted to call him Andrew Gandalf, but he won't let us, so it's going to be Guru. So, Mr Grocery Guru, what's going on in the world of grocery at the moment?

Urban Fulfilment Centres

 

Andrew Grant:

Well, a test for you Darren. If I said to you UFCs, what springs to mind? It's the latest happening thing.

Darren A. Smith:

Ultimate Fighting Champion.

Andrew Grant:

That's a good one. Not unidentified flying curry?

Darren A. Smith:

Oh okay. Yeah. I like that.

Andrew Grant:

That's what happens if you leave the microwave on too long. Any more guesses? The latest happening thing in the world of grocery that every national account manager needs to be aware of.

Darren A. Smith:

I'm on the spot now. Urban depot thing.

Andrew Grant:

Well, you missed the F and the C out, but you were close with urban. Right, urban fulfilment centres, the latest buzzword in the world of grocery, UFC.

Darren A. Smith:

UFC. Yeah.

Andrew Grant:

Everyone's probably heard the stats, it's been very well documented over the last few months. But as a result of lockdown, obviously, a lot of people decided they weren't going to go to supermarkets anymore, either because of the restrictions of going round those supermarkets or the fact that they were worried about catching the virus. So as a result online home delivery grocery has grown more in six months than it did in the previous, I think 10 years is the stat.

Andrew Grant:

We've got some of the retailers now up to 30% of their orders are online.

Darren A. Smith:

I didn't know that. So a third of their sales are online now?

Andrew Grant:

I seem to remember that stat. For goodness, don't hold me to it, I'm sure you will.

Darren A. Smith:

No. It sounds plausible.

Andrew Grant:

But they're basically certainly 10 years' worth of growth in six months. Now, obviously, anybody that knows anything about home deliveries, there's two basic models. You got the Ocado and the Amazon technical model, whereby they have huge, massive, great automated warehouses, cost gazillions in capital spend to get them up and running. Or you've got the route that Tesco pioneered, God, what, 15 years ago I think now, maybe longer than that, whereby you pick in store. So you use the quiet times in-store and you send somebody round as almost like a phantom shopper filling up a trolley with all the stuff. That's a very cheap route in, but it's labour-intensive and it's slow, and it's expensive from a cost per pick basis.

Andrew Grant:

So the Ocado system, once you've spent your gazillions, the cost per pick is actually very cheap, but you've got to spend the gazillions. The Tesco model, the Sainsbury's model, the Morrisons model, doesn't cost any capital investment but costs you quite a lot in terms of having one person picking the stuff for one store.

Darren A. Smith:

I've seen them in stores, like personal shoppers going round with trolleys like customers and they're doing the shopping for it. Yeah. Okay. Get it. Yeah.

Andrew Grant:

And think about it, if you like, how we've been duped for the last 50 years, because if I came along to you with a concept for a new consumer-facing business, and I said, "Darren,