Market Chat

The Days Ahead: More corporate earnings. Initial estimate of Q2 GDP.

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One-Minute Summary: There should have been plenty to upset markets this week. The President questioned the level of the dollar and Fed policy, trade tariffs rose again, the EU made a strong trade deal with Japan, housing starts were down, retail sales weak and one of the regional Fed surveys showed that companies are seeing higher prices which they do not expect to be able to pass on (which means a margin squeeze). The yield curve continued to flatten. Netflix had a bad quarter. Yet things kept moving along well enough. Why?

Let’s deal with the first one. The President can criticize the Fed for raising rates but we think Chairman Powell will disregard any and all such comments. He’s going nowhere and the Administration can do nothing about Fed policy. They're stuck with him.

On the others, the market is growing sanguine. The trade pressures are built into the market’s wall of worry for now. Sure, things could get worse but the underlying economy is moving slowly forward and, as we've said before, companies are reporting great earnings. Thank the tax cuts. The path of rate increases is steady and Chairman Powell reassured markets and politicians not to expect policy surprises.

We did see some increase in short-term rates with 3-month Treasury Bills trading above 2% for the first time since September 2009. This was expected. So far this year, the Treasury market has had to absorb $720bn of net new public debt. That’s what happens if you cut taxes in a late-cycle economy. In the same period last year it was -$74bn. Last week, there was $22bn of T-Bill (i.e. 3 month bills) net new issuance and there’s $130bn coming in the next two months. So why aren't rates higher? Because the economy is expected to slow, real wages are flat and because the Fed has clearly signaled where it expects equilibrium rates to settle: not much above where we are.

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This is a recording of our June 2018 conference call. If you want to join us live next time or get future updates about new episodes, subscribe to our email newsletter: bandjadvisors.com/subscribe

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The Days Ahead: Quieter week for big economic numbers. Watch for trade and updates on the Eurozone.

One-Minute Summary. When markets crack, we know two things. One, the problems don't come from the last crisis (so no need to look in the MBS world). Two, they come from things you barely notice. Last week it was Argentina and Turkey. This week, it was Italy (see below). U.S. bonds promptly rallied 4.5% and the 10-Year Treasury yields, which many predicted would soar to 3% and beyond, fell to an intra-day low of 2.79%. Bonds got medieval on Tuesday and one Bond King had a very bad day.

Domestic and international stocks and U.S. bonds finished more or less unchanged on the week. But there was plenty of action along the way. Small caps had another good week (they tend to not get riled by trade stuff) and are now some 500bps ahead of the large caps so far this year.

The trade talk is not good. The U.S. went ahead with tariffs on steel from Canada, Mexico and the EU. We don't think they're going to take this one lying down. In past years, the parties would have taken the issues to the WTO and talked about it for a couple of years. This time Cecilia Malmstrom, the very accomplished EU Trade commissioner fired right back with, “When they say American (sic) first, we say Europe united.” So far markets have tended to view the trade talks as bluff followed by climb down. That’s worked. So far. Still, expect a lot more disconcerting headlines.

1. Markets are jumpy (Part 2): Here’s something you don't see very often. A G7 sovereign bond crashing in a single morning’s trade. As everyone knows by now, Italy is trying to form a government on a coalition of two parties. The Northern League (secession, pro-Russia, anti-GMO, lower taxes, Eurosceptic) and the 5-Star Movement (guaranteed minimum income, Green, unsure about immigration and mostly Eurosceptic) tried, failed and tried again to form a government. In Italy, winning parties must present their cabinet and government candidates to the President. He has veto power. And he used it. The fear then was another election in the fall with both parties running on an explicit “out-of-Euro” platform because…that’s the only thing these guys really agree on.

Now we've seen Italian governments come and go and, with 42 Prime Ministers since 1945, a change of government in Italy passes as a Cabinet reshuffle elsewhere. And we don't really think this time is different. A government will form, it will make a few changes and it will argue with the EU about debt, growth and bond restructuring.

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The Days Ahead: Jobs number on Friday. Short trading week.

One-Minute Summary. Bonds were up, large and small cap stocks up a small amount and international stocks off around 1.5%...much of that was because of autos (see below), which are around 20% of the German and Japanese stock markets. Emerging Markets had a troubled week mainly because of the bad news coming out of Argentina and Turkey (we talk about it in our podcast here).

There are really two tracks going on in Emerging Markets. One, those countries with high U.S. dollar borrowing, budget deficits and importing oil. Two, those that don't. In the first category are Turkey, Argentina and the Philippines and in the second, China, Taiwan and South Korea. We're oversimplifying, we know.

Right now, there’s a great deal of concern about the former and they're overshadowing the better story from the others. It’s also a problem that a lot of Emerging Market investing is done en bloc, meaning investors buy a single ticker and they're either all in or all out. We think some of this will settle down but in the meantime are looking to protect our Emerging Markets exposure.

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This is a recording of our May 2018 conference call. If you want to join us live next time or get future updates about new episodes, subscribe to our email newsletter: bandjadvisors.com/subscribe

Did you like this podcast? Be sure to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts: bandjadvisors.com/itunes Ask us your financial questions in your review and we'll answer them in the next episode. We appreciate your feedback!

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The Days Ahead: More earnings and jobs numbers.

One Minute Summary: A lot more economic news to feed off this week but not a lot of action. GDP numbers were soft with consumer expenditures and almost every category weaker than the last quarter of 2017. The high point was a build-up in inventories, which makes sense because consumers went on a mini spending binge last year and companies then had to build inventories back up. Anyway, the market yawned as they did with disappointing factory orders and lower home sales.

The S&P 500 was flat. Some oversold sectors like staples and telecomm did well. Europe was mostly flat but we think they're likely to outperform this year. Emerging Markets were flat but off 2% in dollar terms as the dollar rallied, particularly against the Euro. The 10-Year Treasury hitting 3% was not unexpected and soon retraced.

What we’re seeing with earnings is a pattern of selling on the news. Some of the biggest moves this week were companies that reported perfectly fine numbers but gave weak outlooks. Caterpillar (CAT) was a good example…down 9% on multiyear margins and net income. 3M (MMM), Teradyne (TER) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) were the same. What’s going on? A lack of the next big thing. Earnings are good, economy okay, inflation ticking up gradually. These are all fine but there’s no big catalyst in the wings so stocks are taking a breather. No reason for any portfolio changes.

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The Days Ahead: More earnings and jobs numbers.

One Minute Summary: A lot more economic news to feed off this week but not a lot of action. GDP numbers were soft with consumer expenditures and almost every category weaker than the last quarter of 2017. The high point was a build-up in inventories, which makes sense because consumers went on a mini spending binge last year and companies then had to build inventories back up. Anyway, the market yawned as they did with disappointing factory orders and lower home sales.

The S&P 500 was flat. Some oversold sectors like staples and telecomm did well. Europe was mostly flat but we think they're likely to outperform this year. Emerging Markets were flat but off 2% in dollar terms as the dollar rallied, particularly against the Euro. The 10-Year Treasury hitting 3% was not unexpected and soon retraced.

What we’re seeing with earnings is a pattern of selling on the news. Some of the biggest moves this week were companies that reported perfectly fine numbers but gave weak outlooks. Caterpillar (CAT) was a good example…down 9% on multiyear margins and net income. 3M (MMM), Teradyne (TER) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) were the same. What’s going on? A lack of the next big thing. Earnings are good, economy okay, inflation ticking up gradually. These are all fine but there’s no big catalyst in the wings so stocks are taking a breather. No reason for any portfolio changes.

If you want to join us live next time or get future updates about new episodes, subscribe to our email newsletter: bandjadvisors.com/subscribe

Did you like this podcast? Be sure to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts: bandjadvisors.com/itunes Ask us your financial questions in your review and we'll answer them in the next episode. We appreciate your feedback!

Learn more about Brouwer & Janachowski and our wealth management services: www.bandjadvisors.com

This is our April 2018 Monthly Conference Call.

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The Days Ahead: Big earnings week. First look at Q1 GDP.

One Minute Summary: A quieter week on the economic front but what there was uninspiring. Housing starts were fine but most of the increase was in multi-family housing. Industrial production was up but flattered by energy and mining, which are 20% of the index. We saw new nominees for the four (!) open positions at the Fed. We like them so no drama there.

The S&P 500 was up for the week. Small company stocks, Emerging Markets and International all had a better week and all three are ahead of the S&P 500 year to date. The best market was the U.K. It’s by no means out of the Brexit problems but the stock market has a heavy 22% weighting to mining and commodities, which have been on a roll recently.

Earnings were positive. But the market has distinguished between “bad, good earnings” which would be better net income mostly due to lower taxes and “good, good earnings” which would be better because of margins or volume. In the first camp put Philip Morris and IBM (down 17% and 8%) and in the latter, Netflix and industrial supplier Grainger (both up around 6%). Generally, earnings are having a barn- storming quarter with companies showing 18% annual growth. The 10-Year Treasury rate rose to 2.95% but some of that is because of a heavy refunding week coming up. We don't expect it to continue to rise.

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Did you like this podcast? Be sure to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts: bandjadvisors.com/itunes Ask us your financial questions in your review and we'll answer them in the next episode. We appreciate your feedback!

Learn more about Brouwer & Janachowski and our wealth management services: www.bandjadvisors.com

If you want to join us live next time or get future updates about new episodes, subscribe to our email newsletter: bandjadvisors.com/subscribe

Did you like this podcast? Be sure to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts: bandjadvisors.com/itunes Ask us your financial questions in your review and we'll answer them in the next episode. We appreciate your feedback!

Learn more about Brouwer & Janachowski and our wealth management services: www.bandjadvisors.com

Learn more about MoneyLife: http://moneylifeshow.com