Market Matters from New York Life Investment Management

Some data suggests that the U.S. housing market is rebounding. But is this sustainable when affordability hasn’t improved? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann dig into housing market activity, what it tells investors about the economy, and the investment opportunities that remain. 

The Fed’s latest hiking cycle has been sizable and swift, impacting nearly every asset class. Yet long-term Treasury yields have remained relatively rangebound. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann explore this dynamic, discussing the major drivers potentially moving long-term yields higher and what this environment means for investors. 

Investors frequently point out commercial real estate as a major area of risk in this economic cycle. Is that the case? Stewart Rubin of NYL Real Estate Investors joins host Lauren Goodwin to describe how long-term trends, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the near-term economic cycle are impacting the landscape for the asset class. 

Tim Humphreys of Ausbil Investment Management joins host Lauren Goodwin to describe how a global mega trend towards de-globalization, or RE-globalization as our teams have written, can be leveraged in investment strategies today.  Their conversation focuses on infrastructure – thinking beyond “bridges and tunnels” and including energy, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and more. 

Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann and Michael LoGalbo discuss their midyear economic and market outlook, including a step-by-step guide to the key debates surrounding a widely telegraphed recession. The team takes listeners through a discussion of the timing of the economic cycle, the potential severity of a recession once it hits, and under what conditions policy support could save the day. 

Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann and Michael LoGalbo discuss their latest research covering the main themes affecting the next decade of global economics and investing. De-globalization is often looked to as the natural progression of geopolitical tension. But when it comes to critical sectors such as energy, tech, and financing, countries are unlikely to be able to turn inward in the way some envision. In this episode, the team shares their most poignant arguments in favor of a re-globalized world, including how investors can consider portfolio construction in the face of long-term themes. 

Host Lauren Goodwin and “Macro Mike” LoGalbo re-visit their Black Swan Risks for 2023. Which events are still lurking? 

The Fed has been busy hiking rates, but slowing economic growth and rising risks have investors asking not only if the Fed is done, but when they will cut. Host Lauren Goodwin and “Macro Mike” LoGalbo discuss what it would take to see a Fed rate cut, and why they think it is less likely than the market appreciates. 

Earnings growth is negative this quarter, but nobody’s talking about it. Lauren Goodwin and "Macro Mike" LoGalbo break down how even negative earnings growth can be better than expected, and whether market price action is reflecting these fundamentals. 

Regional banks have come under another wave of stress following the failure of First Republic. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss the potential for ongoing bank stress, and what it means for policy and the economic outlook.