Tasty Live's research team examined how well expected price ranges forecast market movements across different time frames. Using 25 years of SPY data, they found that VIX-based estimates accurately capture price movements 83-84% of the time for forecasts between 10-100 days.

Accuracy diminishes with longer timeframes, dropping to 67% for 365-day forecasts. Of the instances when prices exceeded the expected annual range, 84% broke to the upside, with prices ending about 6.2% higher than the upper estimate – reflecting the persistent bull market.

The findings reinforce why the 45-day trading timeframe is optimal, as forecasts maintain peak accuracy around 83-84% in that range while balancing time decay and predictability.