Markets don’t just move on fundamentals—they move on themes, positioning, and policy. In this episode, I’m joined by Matt Tuttle, founder of Tuttle Capital Management, to break down his “HEAT” framework: Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry, and Themes—and how those four ideas shape his daily approach to risk and opportunity.

We discuss why Matt believes you should always be hedged, what real “edges” look like (and why many disappear once Wall Street markets them), how to structure trades for asymmetric payoffs, and how he’s thinking about 2026. Topics include the shift from AI creators to AI adopters, the importance of AI capex and the Fed as key pillars supporting the market, and how policy shocks can create both landmines and upside.

You can learn more about Matt's work at https://www.tuttlecap.com/ and check out his podcast here https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Jason Shapiro—featured in Unknown Market Wizards as “the contrarian”—joins me to unpack what actually creates longevity in trading: surviving drawdowns, learning from mistakes, and building a repeatable process built on risk-reward rather than prediction. We talk about how early wipeouts shaped his discipline, why “being right” is a trap, and why the best traders can lose more often than they win and still come out ahead.

Topics covered include: Jason’s three “blow-up” lessons and how they forged his process, why predicting markets is “worth zero” compared to managing risk, the casino/card-counting analogy for trading edges, how to define exits based on your entry thesis, the value of a trading journal for finding what works over time, and how positioning/participation—not price—can signal when a trade is truly crowded (including how he uses Commitment of Traders data).

Key takeaway: Sustainable trading isn’t about calling tops and bottoms—it’s about staying in the game. Define risk before you enter, only take trades where reward meaningfully outweighs risk, and let the market validate (or invalidate) your thesis quickly. Discipline plus a repeatable edge beats conviction every time.

You can learn more about Jason's work at https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Sector rotation doesn’t always show up clearly on the index chart—it often reveals itself underneath the surface. In the 83rd episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, I’m joined by Julius de Kempenaer, founder of RRG Research and creator of the Relative Rotation Graph, to discuss the late-2025 change in market character and what relative strength analysis is signaling as markets hover near all-time highs.  Recorded 12/15/25.

Topics covered include: 
📈 how Julius uses Relative Rotation Graphs to identify sector rotation in real time
📈 why fading tech momentum alongside improving defensive sectors can be a cautionary signal
📈 how to read RRG “heading” and momentum shifts
📈 how to combine RRGs with traditional price charts to build a disciplined, top-down workflow from asset allocation to sector selection.

Key takeaway: Relative strength is most powerful when used as context, not in isolation. RRGs can highlight where leadership is improving or deteriorating, but confirmation from price and trend remains essential. When market leadership narrows or rotates toward defense, patience and discipline matter more than prediction.

Julius' blog on StockCharts: https://articles.stockcharts.com/author/julius-de-kempenaer/
Julius' videos on StockChartsTV: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrQwgy7LU70BXWzU2hKOYUtM
Learn more about Julius and his work: http://www.relativerotationgraphs.com/

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Seasonality isn’t a crystal ball—it’s a framework. In the 82nd episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast , Dave chats with Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, to review what surprised us in 2025 and how seasonal tendencies, election-cycle history, and market signals can help investors set expectations for 2026.

Topics covered include: what the Almanac says about midterm election years, why 2025 didn’t follow the classic seasonal script, what the Santa Claus Rally actually measures, how the “January indicator trifecta” is used as an early-year gauge, and how macro shocks can overwhelm (or reinforce) seasonal tailwinds and headwinds.

Key takeaway: Use seasonality as context—not certainty. When markets don’t behave as expected during traditionally bullish or bearish windows, it can be a clue that other forces are in control. The goal is a disciplined process: understand the playbook, watch the confirmations, and stay flexible when conditions change.

You can learn more about Jeff's work at https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/ and grab your copy of the 2026 Stock Trader's Almanac at https://amzn.to/4oYiQGm.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

In the 81st episode of The Market Misbehavior Podcast, Dave Keller sits down with Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. With a career that spans from the 1982 market low through the crash of ’87, the dot-com boom, and today’s AI-driven markets, Steve brings a rare combination of historical perspective and real-world trading wisdom. They dig into the AI trade, bubble analogies, trend following vs. valuations, dip-buying psychology, and practical ways investors can hedge in an increasingly concentrated market.  Recorded 12/4/25.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

In the 80th episode of the Market Misbehavior Podcast, Dave speaks with Joanne Bianco, Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx and longtime fixed income portfolio manager. Joanne shares how she thinks about the macro backdrop, why corporate credit fundamentals remain strong, and how investors can use bond ETFs—across Treasuries, investment grade, high yield, and private credit—to build smarter fixed income allocations. Recorded 12/2/25.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

In the 79th episode of The Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller sits down with Alan Ellman, founder of The Blue Collar Investor and a longtime educator on options strategies. Alan walks through a live example of a cash-secured put, explaining how he screens for elite stocks, sets strikes for downside protection, and manages risk through disciplined trade management. He also contrasts covered calls vs. cash-secured puts—and why macro conditions guide how he structures every trade.  Recorded 11/18/25.

Find out more about Alan's work at https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

For the 78th episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave Keller sits down with technical analyst Andrew Thrasher, a two-time Charles H. Dow Award winner and portfolio manager at Financial Enhancement Group. Andrew shares how he built a routine-driven process, why market breadth is his primary tell in a concentrated market, and what his research reveals about volatility compression and the “5% canary” that can precede major drawdowns. They also dig into commodities, crypto, and how to communicate risk to real-world clients.  Recorded 11/11/25.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT
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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

In the 77th episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave Keller sits down with Jerry Robinson (FollowTheMoney.com) to explore his journey from day trading to swing trading to position trading—and the mindset shifts required along the way. Jerry shares how he “follows the money” with weekly trend models, the 40-week/200-day moving average, RSI, stochastics, and candlesticks, plus why he trades around long-term core positions he knows well. The conversation dives into diversification (stocks, gold, Bitcoin, real estate, businesses), his PACE framework (Precious metals, Agriculture, Commodities, Energy), and how mindfulness and turning down the media noise can improve decisions. They also touch on valuations, the AI narrative, liquidity, and staying disciplined through pullbacks. Recorded 11/5/25.

You can learn more about Jerry's work at https://followthemoney.com/.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

In the 76th episode of The Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller sits down with Steven Bavaria—author of The Income Factory and publisher of “Inside the Income Factory” on Seeking Alpha—to explore a radically different way of thinking about portfolio growth. Rather than chasing price appreciation, Steven explains how to build long-term wealth through credit-driven income streams, steady reinvestment, and the disciplined use of closed-end funds and private credit structures.  Recorded 11/4/25.

Topics covered include:
📈 The Income Factory framework: compounding through consistent cash flow
📈 Senior loans, high-yield bonds, and BDCs as income-building tools
📈 Why closed-end funds offer unique opportunities through discounts and leverage
📈 The rise of private credit and how it reshapes access to yield
📈 Portfolio maintenance: managing risk, reinvesting income, and avoiding timing traps
📈 Market psychology, “price obsession,” and why most investors overlook cash flow
📈 What’s changed (and what hasn’t) since The Income Factory was first published

Key takeaway: True compounding comes from consistency, not prediction. By focusing on durable income, reinvestment, and risk-aware credit exposure, investors can build a portfolio that grows steadily—even when markets fluctuate. Steven’s approach reframes what “total return” really means for today’s income-focused investor.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.