In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. From jobs data revisions and labor supply challenges to the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions, productivity, AI, and the outlook for portfolios, this episode is packed with insights advisors and investors can use right now.

Key Takeaways

• Jobs revisions: Recent downward adjustments highlight slowing payroll growth.
• Labor market: Supply shortages are keeping unemployment low despite weak hiring.
• Productivity: AI may boost output, but inequality risks remain.
• Fed policy: There’s a debate on whether cuts would stimulate the economy or actually drag it down.
• Tax refunds: 2025 policy changes could deliver a stimulus-like boost.
• Global opportunities: International equities could benefit from a weaker dollar.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Dr. David Kelly:

• Website: Dr. David Kelly

• LinkedIn: Dr. David Kelly

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Disclosure: Dr. David Kelly is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #DavidKelly #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #InvestingPodcast #ExcelConference #Economy2025

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Strider Elass of First Trust and Samuel Rines of WisdomTree for a timely discussion on the labor market, inflation trends, tariffs, and what investors should watch heading into late 2025. The conversation covers job growth concentration in a few sectors, revisions in employment data, underlying inflation measures, and how tariffs may reshape growth, manufacturing, and markets.

Key Takeaways

• After the latest jobs report, unemployment sits at 4.3%, with weakness concentrated outside health, education, and government.
• Real-time shelter metrics suggest underlying inflation is lower than official reports.
• Effective tariff rates could rise further, pressuring companies and growth.
• Growth could see a potential reacceleration in late 2025, but risk remains of structural slowdown.
• Health care services have been driving job creation, while manufacturing faces losses.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Strider Elass:

• LinkedIn: Strider Elass

• X: @StriderElass

Connect with Samuel Rines:

• LinkedIn: Samuel Rines

• X: @SamuelRines

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Strider Elass and Samuel Rines are not affiliated with CWM, LLC.  Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #JobsReport #Inflation #Tariffs #Economy2025 #InvestingPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into a seasonally tricky September. They break down Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Fed’s balancing act between jobs and inflation, the steepening yield curve, and why gold and international markets are worth watching. Despite short-term volatility risks, they explain why the long-term bull market remains intact.

Key Takeaways:

• Jackson Hole Reaction: Powell leaned dovish, sparking a strong rally, but September cuts aren’t a lock.
• Fed Outlook: Markets are pricing in six rate cuts by late 2026 — potentially a big tailwind.
• Home Equity = Dry Powder: Falling rates could unleash a wave of consumer spending power.
• Steepening Yield Curves: A global signal pointing to growth and inflation expectations.
• Gold Breakout: With its price rising for eight months in a row, gold can be a long-term hedge against volatile inflation and a diversifier beyond bonds.
• Inflation Risks: Broader services inflation remains sticky, keeping pressure on the Fed.
• Seasonal Weakness: September has historically been the market’s toughest month, but optimism remains.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Inflation #Gold #ETFs #EconomicUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome back legendary investor Cliff Asness, Co-Founding Partner, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer of AQR Capital Management. From market bubbles and speculative manias to AI-driven strategies and even Superman movies, this milestone 150th episode blends sharp market insight with candid (and fun) conversation.

Key Takeaways:

• Bubble Talk: Cliff explains why today’s markets are expensive but stop short of a true “bubble.”
• Black Swan Events: Why extreme market shocks happen far more often than statistics suggest.
• Rise of Grift: Social media and meme coins are fueling grift-like behavior in markets.
• AQR Evolution: How AQR has shifted toward data-driven models and capital efficiency.
• Portable Alpha: Insights on stacking returns and improving diversification.
• Buffer Products: Why complex downside-protection ETFs may just be expensive ways of holding cash and equities.
• Personal Stories: Cliff shares Marvel fan moments, career “what-ifs,” and parenting wisdom.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Cliff:

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness

• X: @CliffordAsness

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CliffAsness #AQR #MarketBubbles #InvestingInsights #PortableAlpha #BlackSwan #FinancePodcast #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market moves, the outlook for rate cuts, and what the data is really telling us about inflation and growth. From cooling economic numbers to investor sentiment, this week’s conversation highlights why the market isn’t as fragile as headlines suggest — and what investors should really be watching for the rest of 2025. 

Key Takeaways:

• Jobs slowdown: Payrolls are cooling, but we’re still not seeing signs of a recession.
• Inflation easing: Core numbers are moderating, opening the door for rate cuts from the Fed.
• Rate cuts in focus: The Fed is likely to take action soon, with markets pricing a cut in September.
• Markets resilient: Despite investor worries, the markets continue to reach new highs.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #Inflation #RateCuts #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with veteran market technician JC Parets, founder of TrendLabs, for a fast-moving discussion on technical analysis, market sentiment, gold, global equities, crypto, and the discipline of changing your mind when the charts say so. Packed with insights, laughs, and a few baseball stories, this episode cuts through the noise and focuses on what really matters for investors right now.

Key Takeaways

• Flows over fundamentals — Why positioning matters more than headlines.
• Global bull market — Confirmation from Europe, Asia, and Latin America
• Gold breakout — Record highs in every major currency
• Crypto rotation — Ethereum strength vs. Bitcoin and growing institutional access
• U.S. dollar — Rejection at key levels and implications for risk assets
• Risk management mindset — Moving quickly when trades don’t work
• Business lessons — Building teams, staying liquid, and taking it one day at a time

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with J.C.:

• Website: All Star Charts 

• LinkedIn: J.C. Parets

• X: @JC_ParetsX

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

J.C. Parets is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Statements and opinions made by our guests are for general information only and may not be a reflection of CWM, LLC. 

#FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Gold #Crypto #MarketSentiment #GlobalMarkets #InvestingPodcast #TrendFollowing #FinancialAdvisors

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the latest surprising jobs data, significant payroll revisions, and President Trump's controversial firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen. Ryan and Sonu also provide insights into the Fed’s next moves, inflation challenges, and the unexpected factors influencing recent labor market trends.

Key Takeaways:

• Surprising Jobs Report: July's payroll came in at 73,000—lower than expected—with massive downward revisions for previous months.
• Payroll Data Accuracy: These significant revisions to recent month’s data are due to survey response rates, seasonal adjustments, and methodology nuances.
• Immigration and Labor: A drop in immigration has impacted the labor supply, with fewer jobs now needed monthly to match population growth.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: Mixed economic signals have complicated rate cut decisions, leaving Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautious and focused on inflation risks.
• AI Spending Surge: AI-related investment has significantly boosted GDP growth, offsetting weaker consumer spending.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #JobsReport #FederalReserve #Inflation #JeromePowell #LaborMarket #PayrollRevisions #AIInvestment #EconomicTrends #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the recent easing of global trade tensions and how markets have responded positively. They dive into three popular market myths currently being debated, analyze corporate earnings, and provide their reasoning on why stocks continue to perform well despite skepticism.

Key Takeaways:

• Trade War Cooling: New trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and other nations signal a potential end to President Trump’s trade war, providing stability and optimism to the markets.
• Market Myths Debunked:
   
  • Weak Market Breadth: False. Equal-weight indexes and sector-wide gains show the market rally is broad-based. 
  • Margin Debt Fears: Exaggerated. While margin debt reached record levels, relative to market cap it remains historically manageable. 
  • Foreign Investment Fears: Unfounded. Foreign investment into U.S. stocks and bonds is strong, contrary to earlier warnings.
• Corporate Earnings Strength: Companies like Johnson & Johnson and 3M show improved earnings forecasts despite tariff impacts, highlighting resilience in U.S. corporate profits.
• Sentiment Check: Despite market highs, public sentiment remains cautious, which historically aligns with continued market strength.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #TradeWar #MarketMyths #Stocks #Investing #Tariffs #GlobalEconomy #FinancePodcast #StockMarketNews #EarningsSeason #EconomicOutlook

In Episode 145 of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist unpack recent market reactions, Trump's potential impact on Jerome Powell's Fed tenure, and new inflation data that surprised most economists.

 Key Takeaways

• Event Study on Powell's Potential Firing: Markets briefly reacted negatively to rumors of Jerome Powell’s firing, showcasing investor sensitivities.
• Surprising Inflation Data: Recent Producer Price Index (PPI) came in below all 50 Bloomberg economist forecasts.
• Debate Over Tariff Inflation: Discussion on whether tariffs represent one-time pricing adjustments or ongoing inflationary pressures.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InflationData #InterestRates #MarketReactions #EconomicInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist dive into the recent controversy surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, exploring potential political pressures, the Fed's massive headquarters renovation project, and the broader implications for monetary policy and the economy if there were to be a change in Fed leadership.

Key Takeaways

• Jerome Powell Under Pressure: Discussion about the Trump administration’s criticism of the Fed Chair.
• Fed HQ Controversy: Debate around whether the Fed’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation represents fiscal irresponsibility or necessary infrastructure investment.
• Political Tensions: Examination of how ongoing criticisms may impact Powell’s role and future Fed independence.
• Market Implications: Insight into how potential Fed leadership changes or political tensions could influence market behavior and economic policy.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #FedControversy #EconomicPolicy #TrumpAdministration #InterestRates #MarketInsights #FinancialPodcast #EconomicOutlook #MonetaryPolicy #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese