A Supreme Court decision wipes out a major tariff mechanism, GDP comes in softer than expected, and AI fears collide with an AI spending boom. On the surface, it feels like three separate stories. In Episode 176 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, connect the dots and ask a bigger question: what actually changed, and what simply made headlines?

They break down the Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs, what it means for policy going into a midterm year, and why markets barely flinched. From there, the conversation shifts to fourth-quarter GDP, where a weak headline number masked far stronger private demand beneath the surface. The episode then moves into the AI debate, examining the surge in hardware and software investment, the role of energy and power demand, and the viral “AI crash” scenario that sparked fears of a white-collar doom loop. Along the way, they explore global market leadership, sector dispersion, and why human behavior still sits at the center of economic outcomes even in a world shaped by algorithms.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariff authority reset: The Supreme Court’s ruling removed a major executive tariff tool, reinforcing checks and balances while reducing policy uncertainty

• GDP weakness needs context: A government shutdown distorted headline growth, while private demand remained solid

• AI spending is real: Hardware and software investment tied to AI contributed meaningfully to 2025 growth

• Scenario vs. reality: Extreme AI displacement models raise important questions, but macro consistency and demand dynamics matter

• Market dispersion is widening: Software weakness, industrial strength, and global outperformance highlight a split beneath the surface

Jump to:

0:00 — Tariff Shock And Supreme Court Ruling

5:30 — Market Reaction, Odds And Policy Limits

9:40 — Tariff Refunds And Who Ultimately Paid

13:50 — China, Trade Winners And Political Timelines

22:00 — GDP Miss Explained And Core Demand Strength

31:00 — AI Capex Surge: Chips, Software And Scale

35:00 — Power Demand, Energy And Inflation Pressures

38:30 — The AI Doom Loop Scenario Debate

47:40 — Market Split: Semis, Software And Global Leaders

55:00 — Portfolio Implications And The Human Edge

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Markets keep climbing, headlines keep swinging, and yet sentiment still feels stuck somewhere between cautious and confused. In Episode 175 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, zoom out to examine what is actually driving markets right now and where investors may be misreading the signals. From shifting expectations around growth and inflation to the way earnings, liquidity, and policy are interacting beneath the surface, they separate the emotional narrative from the measurable data.

The conversation moves through current market leadership, valuation concerns, recession odds, and the risks that deserve attention without overreacting to every headline. They also explore what history suggests about similar environments, how positioning can amplify volatility, and why staying disciplined often feels hardest right when it matters most.

Key Takeaways:

• Earnings remain the foundation: Corporate profits continue to anchor market strength, even as narratives shift week to week
 • Sentiment lags fundamentals: Investor psychology still reflects caution despite improving breadth and resilient data
 • Policy and liquidity matter: Rate expectations, fiscal dynamics, and capital flows are shaping the next phase of returns
 • Volatility is part of the process: Pullbacks and headline shocks fit within historical patterns of ongoing expansions
 • Discipline beats drama: Long-term investors benefit more from structure and perspective than from reacting to every news cycle

Jump to:

0:00 - New Titles And Warm-Up Banter

2:42 - Framing A Tale Of Two Markets

5:10 - Sector Splits And Market Breadth

11:55 - Global Equity Strength And Style Shifts

16:30 - AI Shockwaves Across Industries

22:40 - Tech’s Three Tracks: Software, Semis, Telecom

27:35 - Short Interest, Contrarian Signals In Tech

31:30 - International Rallies And Country Leaders

37:15 - Jobs Revisions And Labor Market Reality

44:20 - Youth Employment, AI Fears, And Data

50:05 - Spurious Correlations And Market Folklore

56:20 - CPI Details, Shelter Math, And Services Heat

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a brutal stretch for software, AI-linked stocks, and crypto, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to ask a familiar question: are markets reacting to real deterioration, or replaying last year’s fear cycle with new headlines? As Claude-triggered concerns ripple through software and hyperscalers, they unpack their theories on why prices have fallen far faster than earnings, how valuation compression has reached levels not seen in over a decade, and why sentiment has turned sharply negative even as the S&P 500 flirts with new highs.

From there, the conversation widens. Ryan and Sonu connect record-setting AI capital spending to broader profit growth, explain why global markets like Japan and emerging economies are quietly leading returns, and revisit Bitcoin’s drawdown through the lens of software, risk appetite, and historical market behavior. Along the way, they explore why recessions remain elusive amid massive fiscal and corporate investment, why breadth continues to improve beneath volatile leadership, and why moments that feel uncomfortable often end up shaping the next leg of the cycle.

Key Takeaways:

• AI fear is recycling a familiar playbook: Software and tech selloffs reflect sentiment shocks more than collapsing fundamentals
• Valuations reset without earnings damage: Multiple compression has driven declines even as forward profit expectations rise
• Capex is reshaping the cycle: AI investment has reached historic levels with implications for growth, margins, and inflation
• Global leadership is expanding: Japan and emerging markets are outperforming as breadth improves outside U.S. megacaps
• Volatility feels louder than it is: Flat index returns mask sharp rotations that reward discipline over reaction

Jump to:

0:00 — Kicking Off With Sports And Stocks

1:08 — Deja Vu: Tech Turmoil Returns

3:18 — The Claude Crash And Software Selloff

7:45 — Valuations, Momentum, And Narrative Risk

12:45 — Hyperscalers’ CapEx Arms Race

18:55 — Bitcoin, Correlations, And Sentiment

25:10 — Global Rotation: Japan Surges, Dollar Softens

30:20 — Dow 50K, Compounding, And Milestones

34:30 — Earnings Strength And Multiple Math

39:20 — Upcoming Data, Outlook, And Closing

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, went live for the very first Facts Vs Feelings: Social Hour livestream on Friday, 1/30.

They kicked things off with special guest Brian Belski for a relaxed, wide-ranging conversation that blended big-picture macro, markets, and a bit of fun along the way.

Jump to:

0:00 - Live Stream Kickoff And Banter

3:45 - Belski’s Background And Career Arc

12:30 - Founding Humilus And Investing Philosophy

20:10 - Gold’s Selloff, Fed Debates, And Inflation

31:00 - Secular Bull Market Case And History

40:05 - Travel Detour And Airport Talk

45:10 - Earnings Versus Multiples And Tech Leadership

53:00 - Financials, Mid Caps, And Small Cap Opportunity

1:00:00 Advisors, Building A Firm, And Contrarian Mindset

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a quiet data week and a loud political signal, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what a potential Fed leadership shakeup could mean for rates, markets, and investor expectations. With Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely next Fed chair, the discussion cuts past headlines to examine his long history at the Fed, his shifting stance on inflation and rate cuts, and why markets may be less willing to take his guidance at face value. 

It’s been one of the most volatile stretches for metals in decades, as gold and silver experience sharp pullbacks after a historic run. Ryan and Sonu break down why positioning and sentiment mattered more than headlines, and along the way, they connect the dots between capital-intensive tech investment, the emerging commodity supercycle, and why earnings strength continues to underpin equities despite leadership rotation and policy noise.

Key Takeaways:

• Fed leadership uncertainty adds friction, not clarity: Kevin Warsh’s record reveals a pattern of convenient pivots that may limit his influence over a skeptical committee 
• Rate cuts face structural resistance: Markets are pricing fewer long-term cuts as capital investment and nominal growth keep upward pressure on rates 
• Metals volatility was about positioning, not fundamentals: Extreme bullish sentiment set the stage for sharp pullbacks despite intact long-term trends 
• Gold and silver require sizing, not timing: Volatility, correlations, and rebalancing matter more than chasing short-term price moves 
• Earnings continue to justify the bull market: Strong margins, industrial strength, and resilient consumer spending support risk assets even as leadership rotates

Jump to:

0:00 - Setting The Stage: No Jobs Data

1:06 - Who Is Kevin Warsh

4:30 - Warsh’s Crisis-Era Record

9:10 - Politics, Hawks, And Rate-Cut Reality

14:20 - Balance Sheet Beliefs Challenged

19:45 - Gold And Silver’s Wild Swing

25:40 - How To Own Metals Wisely

31:10 - From Software To Capex Supercycle

36:50 - Productivity, Labor, And Rates

41:30 - Fun Signals: Super Bowl And January

46:05 - Earnings, Margins, And Momentum

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold’s breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets.

They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don’t align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect.

Key Takeaways:

 • Gold’s message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection
 • The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder’s emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks
 • Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2%
 • Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers
 • Policy noise doesn’t derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves

—

Check the 23 Top Financial Advisor Podcasts To Listen To In 2026:

https://kitc.es/4pWNyA9

Jump to:

0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes

2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained

8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation

14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold

19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets

23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up

30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today’s Different

38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds

42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth

48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk

53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities.

Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarity
• Bond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibility
• Metals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demand
• Household balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growth
• Market leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull market

Jump to:

0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare

3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day

5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess

11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard

15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop

20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold

25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations

31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin

36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage

44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks

50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback Loops

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlines
  
  
  
• Fed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noise
  
  
  
• Metals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertainty
  
  
  
• Labor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strong
  
  
  
• Breadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull market

Jump to:

0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals

6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence

12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents

19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks

28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals

31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions

41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per Worker

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026.

They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures.

Key Takeaways:

 • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains
 • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise
 • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved
 • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends
 • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recession

Jump to:

0:00 — Setting The Stage For 2025

1:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom

4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth

9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced

14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts

22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations

27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers

32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions

40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare

46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And Policy

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, flies solo for this new episode of Facts vs Feelings, joined by longtime chart-watchers Chris Kimble, former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, and Scott Brown, Founder of Brown Technical Insights, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the market is signaling as 2025 comes to a close.

They dig into market breadth, sector leadership, financials, commodities, and metals that have gone nowhere for over a decade, along with gold’s role, sentiment disconnects, and why certain “boring” areas may be setting up for something much bigger. The discussion blends technical analysis, long-term market history, portfolio construction, and the psychological side of investing, offering context for what could matter most heading into 2026.

Chris and Scott are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:

0:00 — Opening and guest introductions

1:41 — Market surprises and leadership shifts

6:05 — Financials, tech, and market breadth

12:10 — Gold, metals, and long-term breakouts

18:40 — Sentiment, seasonality, and market signals

26:10 — China, Fibonacci levels, and global setup

34:20 — Research, portfolio construction, and the 2026 outlook

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Scott:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/

• X: https://x.com/scottcharts?lang=en

Connect with Chris:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-kimble-708b4681/

• X: https://x.com/KimbleCharting

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]