In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors.

After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally be prevailing. From trade negotiations to market breadth thrust indicators, and even a glimpse into the Fed’s next move—the guys cover it all.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariff Ceasefire with China:
  A surprise agreement between the U.S. and China rolls back reciprocal tariffs to 10%, averting the feared trade war escalation—though another 20% tariff still remains. The market reacted with a strong rally, showing signs of confidence.
• Trade Talks Reset, Not a Resolution:
  Though framed as a deal by the U.S., China calls it an “economic and trade consultation mechanism.” The agreement includes a 90-day pause and commitments to future negotiations. Non-tariff measures like export restrictions are also being lifted.
• Market Reaction Shows Strength:
  The Dow surged more than 1,000 points, and market internals and technicals suggest bullish momentum and historical patterns point to strong returns ahead.
• Bull Market Signals Everywhere:
  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have officially entered new bull markets. Patterns like strong monthly returns and recoveries from steep drawdowns historically signal higher markets in the months to come.
• Fed Rate Cuts Delayed by Tariff Uncertainty:
  Despite soft April CPI data and signs that inflation is under control, the Fed remains cautious. Rate cuts that once seemed likely in June or July may now be pushed to September or later.
• U.S. Recession Risk Declining Again:
  After a temporary spike in recession probability post-Liberation Day, analysts are walking those forecasts back as data stabilizes and trade tensions ease.
• Long-Term Strategy Over Headlines:
  Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of staying invested through volatility. Market history shows the best days often come right after the worst—don’t miss them by panic selling.

Connect with Ryan: 

·       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

·       X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu: 

·       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

·       X: Sonu Varghese

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketUpdate #TradeWar #Tariffs #ChinaUSRelations #StockMarket #BullMarket #Recession #Inflation #FederalReserve #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentStrategy #Economy #SP500 #MarketInsights #SonuVarghese #RyanDetrick

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed’s next move, and more.

Key Takeaways:

• GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.
• A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett’s remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he’d be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.
• Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.
• Fed Uncertainty: Though it’s still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.
• Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.
• Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty.

Connect with Ryan:

•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

•       X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

•       X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market’s strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market.

The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and the broader economic implications of continued trade tensions with China. Plus, a golden discussion — literally — about gold’s recent surge and what it might mean for investors.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets vs. Tariffs
• Policy Sensitivity
• Market Breadth & Technicals
• Near Bear Markets
• Trade Impact Lag
• Fed & Policy Outlook
• Earnings Expectations
• Sentiment Extremes
• Gold Surge

Connect with Ryan: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#StockMarket #Tariffs #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #S&P500 #Gold #MarketRally #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest to unpack the state of innovation in finance, the market’s reaction to tariffs, and the evolving role of AI, Bitcoin, and government in shaping the future economy.

Together, they explore whether we are entering a recession or exiting one, and how long-term investors can cut through short-term volatility. Cathie also shares her thoughts on manufacturing reshoring, AI’s role in diagnostics and automation, OpenAI’s dominance, and why Bitcoin might just be getting started.

Key Takeaways:

• Market headwinds are turning into tailwinds
• Risk of a recession is on the rise
• Tariff chaos could be offset some by tax cuts and deregulation
• AI will catalyze every sector
• Bitcoin and gold can be hedges against market volatility, but there’s still uncertainty
• Manufacturing is coming back to the U.S., but with more automation
• The government’s role in innovation is evolving as the private sector progresses

Connect with Cathie:

•       X: @cathiedwood

Connect with Ryan:

•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

•       X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

•       X: @sonusvarghe

Relevant Hashtags:

#CathieWood #ARKInvest #Bitcoin #AI #Tariffs #Innovation #StockMarket #Recession #FactsVsFeelings #TechnologyInvesting #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #OpenAI #Automation #EconomicOutlook #RollingRecession #Reshoring #DigitalAssets #Investing

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the ripple effects of tariffs, high interest rates, and a wavering investment environment on the U.S. and global economies.

With companies freezing investment plans and government spending cooling off, the duo explores how the consumer remains the last line of economic defense—so long as the labor market holds. They also explore why the Fed might be making a mistake by keeping rates elevated, the possibility of a white-flag moment from President Trump, and how diversification remains the smartest play during times of uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs Are Already Reshaping Corporate Behavior
   
• GDP Growth is Vulnerable
   
• Labor Market is the Tipping Point
   
• Fed Policy May Be Too Tight for Too Long
   
• The Market’s Bull Case? Trump Waves the White Flag
   

Next Week's Guest: Cathie Wood
Our next episode will feature Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, as we’ll dive into tech and recession perspectives.

Connect with Ryan: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Music Credit: 

• Ryan the Savior of Stocks – by Jake Guttman (This song was created using A.I.) https://suno.com/song/c11f8ece-b4b8-45f0-b6e6-ae0e761708b7

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #Markets #Tariffs #FedPolicy #GDP #LaborMarket #Investing #Diversification #InterestRates #TrumpEconomy #CathieWood #EconomicOutlook #ConsumerSpending

In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the immediate fallout of last week’s tariffs announcement and how it could impact both the U.S. and the global economy. They dive into the plunging markets, how a trade war could trigger a recession, the long-term impact of tariffs, and much more.

Key Takeaways

• Market Impact: The immediate aftermath in the markets after tariffs went into effect wasn’t pretty, with the Dow dropping more than 10% in two days. When could we expect some relief?
• Inflation Returns: Tariffs are likely to raise prices for most goods, and rising inflation could affect when and whether the Fed makes rate cuts this year.
• Recession Odds: With the markets in bear market territory, what’s the likelihood of these tariffs triggering a recession?
• Delayed Impact: Manufacturing and labor market numbers in upcoming months may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs.
• Time to Diversify: Volatility in the stock market just further emphasizes the need for investors to have a diverse portfolio.

Connect with Ryan:

•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

•       X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

•       X: @sonusvarghese

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Tariffs #LiverationDay #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket #Recession

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Jess Menton, Senior Reporter at Bloomberg News, and Kate Hall, VP, Alternative Due Diligence, at Carson Group. The conversation explores career growth, industry challenges, and what the future holds for female leaders in financial services.

Key Takeaways:

• The importance of representation: Women in leadership serve as role models, paving the way for future generations.
• Overcoming industry challenges: Jess and Kate share personal experiences navigating male-dominated spaces in finance.
• The power of mentorship: The guests discuss how building strong networks and mentorship opportunities are key to helping advance women in the industry.
• Market insights: The panel discusses economic trends, investing strategies, and the current state of the markets.
• Advice for the next generation: The group talks about how to encourage young women considering careers in finance and how the industry can better support them.

This is more than just a market discussion—it’s about leadership, resilience, and the future of finance.

Connect with Ryan: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Jess Menton:

• LinkedIn: Jessica Menton
• X: @JessicaMenton

Connect with Kate Hall:

• LinkedIn: Kate K. Hall

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Turkey #InterestRates #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist at Clearonomics, and Debbie Taylor, Managing Partner and Chief Tax Strategist at Carson Wealth, for a special Women’s History Month Livestream. Together, they discuss their careers, recent market trends, and how investors can navigate today's economic landscape.

Key Takeaways:

Market Insights & Volatility – Are recent corrections normal? We take a look at the stock market’s history following recent corrections.
The Role of Women in Finance – Lindsey and Debbie share their career journeys, the challenges they faced along the way, and lessons from their time in the financial industry.
Tax Strategies & Planning – Debbie discusses tax efficiency, investment strategies, and financial planning for long-term success.
Economic Trends & Consumer Behavior – What do earnings growth, job markets, and tariffs mean for investors?

Connect with Ryan: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Lindsey:

• LinkedIn: Lindsey Bell
• X: @justLBell

Connect with Debbie:

• LinkedIn: Debbie Taylor

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the recent market correction, what history tells us about recoveries, and whether investors should be concerned. Plus, they discuss sentiment shifts, the strength of international markets, and what they see next for stocks.

Key Takeaways:

• Understanding Market Corrections: The S&P 500 fell 10% in just 16 trading days — historically, corrections like this happen about once a year.
• What Happens Next? History suggests strong rebounds after quick corrections, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 7.5% in three months and 15% in six months following similar drops.
• It’s Not All Bad: While the S&P 500 dipped, international markets like Germany, Japan, and Europe have remained resilient, showing the importance of diversification.
• Investor Sentiment is Shifting: Bearish sentiment is at its highest level since March 2009, often a contrarian buy signal.
• The Fed and Inflation Concerns: Inflation expectations have risen, but real inflation remains under control. The Fed’s next moves will be crucial.
• Diversification Wins: Bonds, gold, and low-volatility stocks have held up well, reinforcing the need for a balanced portfolio.

Connect with Ryan: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In this week’s episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist are joined by Warren Pies, Co-Founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss market trends, recession risks, Fed policy, and, of course, some fun Pi Day and St. Patrick’s Day talk. They dive into economic growth concerns, interest rates, inflation, and why a growth scare doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is coming.

Key Takeaways:

• Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there’s no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong.
• The Fed’s Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth.
• Government Spending & Deficits: Large fiscal deficits have been a cushion for the economy, but potential cuts could introduce new risks.
• Energy Market Insights: Oil prices are trending lower, which is good for inflation and Fed policy, but may present challenges for energy companies.
• Market Volatility & Rate Cuts: The Fed’s reluctance to ease policy is contributing to a growth scare, but this may just be a temporary market correction.
• Housing & Economic Signals: While mortgage rates remain high, housing market fundamentals aren’t signaling an imminent downturn.
• Pi Day & St. Patrick’s Day Fun: We discuss Chicago’s green river tradition, our favorite pies, and how Warren’s firm got its name.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

 Join us for a special Women’s History Month edition of Facts vs Feelings, featuring top women leaders in finance discussing markets, investing, and industry insights. Register now: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7303883891440762880

Connect with Warren: 

• LinkedIn: Warren Pies
• X: @WarrenPies
• Website: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

Connect with Ryan: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: @sonusvarghes

#StockMarket #Investing #InterestRates #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #EnergyMarkets #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup #PiDay #StPatricksDay