Summary:
In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group. They dive into the “cockroaches in a bull market” conversation—what it means for credit markets, how private credit has evolved, and why due diligence and diversification are key in today’s environment. The trio also discusses gold’s surge, strong bank earnings, and why market signals still favor a solid finish to the year.

Key Takeaways:

• Credit Spreads – Markets remain steady with limited signs of broad stress.
• Private Credit Boom – The space has tripled since 2015, creating new risk dynamics.
• Diversification – Broad exposure cushions isolated defaults or fraud risks.
• Gold Momentum – Rising prices reflect sticky inflation and rate-cut expectations.
• Market Sentiment – A cooling VIX and broad participation support a strong Q4 outlook.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Kate Hall:

• LinkedIn: Kate Hall

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #KateHall #PrivateCredit #Investing #Markets #BullMarket #Gold #MarketInsights #FinancialAdvisors #EconomicOutlook #Diversification

Summary:
In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the renewed tensions between the U.S. and China—what they’re calling “Trade War 3.0.” They break down the latest round of tariffs, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and what this means for markets, global trade, and investors. The conversation also touches on October’s trademark market volatility, the three-year anniversary of the current bull market, and Carson Group’s exciting milestone of surpassing $50 billion in assets under management. To wrap up, Ryan and Sonu discuss how AI investments are shaping economic growth and why diversification remains key as the market rides this wave of innovation.

Key Takeaways:

• Trade War 3.0: The China trade war is back, with new tariffs and export restrictions creating fresh market uncertainty.
• Not a Shock: October remains the most volatile month for markets—current swings are historically typical.
• The Bull’s Birthday: The three-year bull market continues to show resilience and momentum heading into year four.
• Massive Impact: AI-related investment is a key driver of GDP growth, fueling spending, innovation, and market optimism.

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Investing #MarketOutlook #ChinaTradeWar #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #EconomicTrends #RareEarths #AIMarkets #NVIDIA #OpenAI #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the market implications of the ongoing government shutdown, the surge in gold prices, and what investors should expect from the Fed. They also dig into the booming AI investment cycle, shifting momentum across market caps, and why the labor market remains resilient even as hiring slows.

Key Takeaways

• Gold Shines Bright:  Gold has remained on the rise, nearing $4,000 an ounce as central banks buy aggressively and inflation concerns persist.
• Shutdown, Not Slowdown:  Despite Washington gridlock, the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs. Historically, markets shrug off shutdowns and focus on Fed policy instead.
• Rate Cuts Coming:  Fed futures signal multiple cuts starting this fall. Weak hiring but low layoffs point to a cooling, not collapsing, economy.
• AI Spending Surge:  OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and others are driving a wave of capital investment, with AI-related spending now accounting for roughly 6% of U.S. GDP.
• Market Momentum Builds:  Strong seasonality, easing rates, and improving earnings expectations set the stage for a solid Q4, even as mid-caps lag under tariff pressure.

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #FederalReserve #AI #GovernmentShutdown #Investing #StockMarket #WealthManagement #EconomicOutlook #MarketInsights

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss gold, crypto, ETFs, and the future of investing. From the history of the first U.S. gold fund to today’s innovations in blockchain, stablecoins, and nuclear energy, Jan shares unique insights into how markets are evolving.

Key Takeaways

• Gold & Bitcoin: Gold remains a global safe haven, while Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold,” according to Jan.
• Stablecoins: Potentially revolutionary for payments, creating new competition between banks and tech companies.
• Macro Trends: The rise of India could reshape global markets, while China’s equity returns remain lackluster.
• Energy & AI: Nuclear energy is regaining bipartisan support as demand for power surges, particularly from AI growth.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Jan van Eck:

• LinkedIn: Jan van Eck

• X: @JanvanEck3

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Disclosure: Jan van Eck is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFs #Stablecoins #Investing #WealthManagement #MarketInsights

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the growing comparisons between today’s market and the 1929 crash. They cut through the noise on gold sentiment, small-cap strength, earnings growth, Fed policy, and consumer resilience—all in under 52 minutes.

Key Takeaways

• 1929 comparisons: Why we believe today’s bull market is not a replay of the Great Depression.
• Gold sentiment: The metal has been a strong diversifier for portfolios so far this year.
• Small caps: They’re breaking out after nearly four years without new highs.
• Earnings reporting: The hosts debate quarterly vs. semiannual disclosures after President Trump floated the idea last week.
• The Fed: What the recent rate cut mean, labor market concerns, and why equities rallied.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #BullMarket #Gold #SmallCaps #Fed #RetailSales #InvestingPodcast #MarketUpdate

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. From jobs data revisions and labor supply challenges to the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions, productivity, AI, and the outlook for portfolios, this episode is packed with insights advisors and investors can use right now.

Key Takeaways

• Jobs revisions: Recent downward adjustments highlight slowing payroll growth.
• Labor market: Supply shortages are keeping unemployment low despite weak hiring.
• Productivity: AI may boost output, but inequality risks remain.
• Fed policy: There’s a debate on whether cuts would stimulate the economy or actually drag it down.
• Tax refunds: 2025 policy changes could deliver a stimulus-like boost.
• Global opportunities: International equities could benefit from a weaker dollar.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Dr. David Kelly:

• Website: Dr. David Kelly

• LinkedIn: Dr. David Kelly

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Disclosure: Dr. David Kelly is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #DavidKelly #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #InvestingPodcast #ExcelConference #Economy2025

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Strider Elass of First Trust and Samuel Rines of WisdomTree for a timely discussion on the labor market, inflation trends, tariffs, and what investors should watch heading into late 2025. The conversation covers job growth concentration in a few sectors, revisions in employment data, underlying inflation measures, and how tariffs may reshape growth, manufacturing, and markets.

Key Takeaways

• After the latest jobs report, unemployment sits at 4.3%, with weakness concentrated outside health, education, and government.
• Real-time shelter metrics suggest underlying inflation is lower than official reports.
• Effective tariff rates could rise further, pressuring companies and growth.
• Growth could see a potential reacceleration in late 2025, but risk remains of structural slowdown.
• Health care services have been driving job creation, while manufacturing faces losses.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Strider Elass:

• LinkedIn: Strider Elass

• X: @StriderElass

Connect with Samuel Rines:

• LinkedIn: Samuel Rines

• X: @SamuelRines

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Strider Elass and Samuel Rines are not affiliated with CWM, LLC.  Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #JobsReport #Inflation #Tariffs #Economy2025 #InvestingPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into a seasonally tricky September. They break down Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Fed’s balancing act between jobs and inflation, the steepening yield curve, and why gold and international markets are worth watching. Despite short-term volatility risks, they explain why the long-term bull market remains intact.

Key Takeaways:

• Jackson Hole Reaction: Powell leaned dovish, sparking a strong rally, but September cuts aren’t a lock.
• Fed Outlook: Markets are pricing in six rate cuts by late 2026 — potentially a big tailwind.
• Home Equity = Dry Powder: Falling rates could unleash a wave of consumer spending power.
• Steepening Yield Curves: A global signal pointing to growth and inflation expectations.
• Gold Breakout: With its price rising for eight months in a row, gold can be a long-term hedge against volatile inflation and a diversifier beyond bonds.
• Inflation Risks: Broader services inflation remains sticky, keeping pressure on the Fed.
• Seasonal Weakness: September has historically been the market’s toughest month, but optimism remains.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Inflation #Gold #ETFs #EconomicUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome back legendary investor Cliff Asness, Co-Founding Partner, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer of AQR Capital Management. From market bubbles and speculative manias to AI-driven strategies and even Superman movies, this milestone 150th episode blends sharp market insight with candid (and fun) conversation.

Key Takeaways:

• Bubble Talk: Cliff explains why today’s markets are expensive but stop short of a true “bubble.”
• Black Swan Events: Why extreme market shocks happen far more often than statistics suggest.
• Rise of Grift: Social media and meme coins are fueling grift-like behavior in markets.
• AQR Evolution: How AQR has shifted toward data-driven models and capital efficiency.
• Portable Alpha: Insights on stacking returns and improving diversification.
• Buffer Products: Why complex downside-protection ETFs may just be expensive ways of holding cash and equities.
• Personal Stories: Cliff shares Marvel fan moments, career “what-ifs,” and parenting wisdom.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Cliff:

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness

• X: @CliffordAsness

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CliffAsness #AQR #MarketBubbles #InvestingInsights #PortableAlpha #BlackSwan #FinancePodcast #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market moves, the outlook for rate cuts, and what the data is really telling us about inflation and growth. From cooling economic numbers to investor sentiment, this week’s conversation highlights why the market isn’t as fragile as headlines suggest — and what investors should really be watching for the rest of 2025. 

Key Takeaways:

• Jobs slowdown: Payrolls are cooling, but we’re still not seeing signs of a recession.
• Inflation easing: Core numbers are moderating, opening the door for rate cuts from the Fed.
• Rate cuts in focus: The Fed is likely to take action soon, with markets pricing a cut in September.
• Markets resilient: Despite investor worries, the markets continue to reach new highs.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #Inflation #RateCuts #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese