In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble.

The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook.

[Key Takeaways]

• The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago.
• Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP.
• Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft.
• AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials.
• Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average.
• The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones

0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally

3:26 - What Really Drove Returns

8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation

16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats

23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management

28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story

32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era

42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership

47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the "June swoon" and the powerful market rotation shaking up underlying sector leadership. They analyze insights from Sonu's time at the Economic Club of New York, covering Scott Bessent’s speech on national security industrial policy, Kevin Warsh's influence at the Fed, and the broader message of the global market.

The episode also digs into an unprecedented market breadth anomaly, a massive weekly outperformance in healthcare, the state of small caps, and why the current bull market is far from finished.

From Apple’s steep hardware price hikes and roaring nominal consumer spending to structural lessons from the 1990s dot-com bubble, the conversation connects the week's biggest headlines to the harder macroeconomic data underneath.

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 logged a five-day losing streak, yet advancing stocks outnumbered decliners every single day, a market anomaly unseen in nearly 30 years. Meanwhile, major advanced-decline lines hit all-time highs.
• While mega-cap tech paused, mid-caps rose 2.9% and small caps grew 3% month-to-date. Concurrently, healthcare staged an extraordinary 8% weekly jump, marking its largest weekly outperformance on record.
• Market warnings are often early; the S&P 500 doubled over the three years following Alan Greenspan's 1996 "irrational exuberance" speech. Navigating secular waves like AI requires strategic re-diversification, not exiting the equity market early.
• While inflation-adjusted real consumption sits around 2%, nominal spending rocketed at an 8.6% annualized pace over the last three months. Because corporate revenue is nominal, this massive wave of consumer spending continues to bolster corporate earnings.
• Driven by AI-related memory chip shortages, Apple announced steep price hikes including 30% for the HomePod mini and 55% for Apple TV. This demonstrates how one company's supply chain inflation becomes another tech supplier's margin expansion.
• Massive fiscal deficits at 6% to 7% of GDP mirror the late 1960s, continuing to inject liquidity and minimize near-term recession risks. We expect the Fed to keep rate cuts on pause as core services inflation remains sticky at a 4% annualized pace.
• While June represents a seasonally weak timeframe, July is historically the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, closing positive in 13 of the last 14 years.

Jump to:

0:02 - Welcome And NYC Market Leaders

6:36 - June Swoon Turns Into Rotation

9:50 - Breadth Thrust And Sector Breakouts

16:24 - AI Momentum And Dotcom Lessons

27:40 - Inflation Pressures And Apple Pricing

33:32 - Fed Pause Risks And Fiscal Deficits

35:42 - July Seasonality And Wrap Up

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets.

Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions.

Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%.

Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet.

Key Takeaways: 

• Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history.
• Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight.
• The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish.
• After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero.
• Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday.

Jump to:

0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father’s Day

3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan’s Fed

8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement

13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock

19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise

24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure

28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed

34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot

37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check

40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation

53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener Requests

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In this special live episode of Facts vs Feelings from Carson's Second Quarter Summit in Chicago, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese sit down with Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Richard Thaler for a conversation that ranges from NFL draft strategy to retirement savings design to why markets keep producing events that are statistically supposed to be impossible.

Thaler breaks down his "Loser's Curse" research on the NFL draft, explaining why top picks are systematically overvalued and why trading down is almost always the smarter move. Twenty years and a Nobel Prize later, teams have barely improved their ability to predict talent. The better-than-the-next-guy stat went from 52% to 53%.

The conversation covers Bob Shiller's work on excess market volatility, what it actually means when 10-sigma events keep showing up every decade, and why the coming wave of major IPOs is forcing index providers into decisions that are anything but passive.

On the behavioral side, Thaler walks through the three pillars that transformed 401k design: automatic enrollment, target date funds, and Save More Tomorrow and why the UK's approach to retirement mandates got the balance right. He also gets into mental accounting and why a $2 million gain in home equity has almost no impact on spending while a direct deposit hits a checking account and disappears immediately.

Key Takeaways: 

• NFL teams have had 20 years, full quant departments, and AI-powered scouting to improve on Richard Thaler's draft research. Their ability to rank players better than a coin flip moved from 52% to 53%. Tom Brady was picked 199.
• The first pick in the NFL draft is not worth six second-round picks. Trading down is the winning strategy, and trading a pick this year for a pick next year where the going rate is one round works out to roughly a 120% implied interest rate.
• When stocks get added to the S&P 500, the price pops. Andre Shleifer proved it in grad school with a paper called "Do Demand Curves Slope Down for Stocks?" The answer was yes, and it was controversial at the time. Now everyone knows it and the SpaceX IPO is about to test it at a scale the market has never seen.
• Buying an IPO on day one looks exciting and has historically cost investors around 30% in underperformance versus the market over the following three years, according to Jay Ritter's data.
• Making enrollment the default in 401k plans, rather than requiring employees to opt in, had a bigger impact on retirement savings rates than any amount of financial education. Which box comes pre-checked should be irrelevant. It isn't.
• A $2 million gain in home equity produces almost zero change in spending. The same money landing in a checking account gets spent. Mental accounting is not a quirk; it shapes how wealth actually moves through the economy, and you can't model the wealth effect without accounting for where the money sits.

Jump to:

0:00 - Live From Chicago Kickoff

0:35 - Sponsor Message From Pimco

1:13 - Welcoming Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler

2:31 - The NFL Draft Loser’s Curse

9:03 - Can You Fire Your Team

10:31 - Why Markets Swing Too Much

18:35 - IPOs Index Rules And Demand Shocks

24:24 - Live T-Shirt Toss Intermission

25:47 - Nudges That Fix Retirement Saving

34:33 - Education Versus Mandates In Policy

38:45 - Fees Transparency And Trust

41:09 - Mental Accounting And The Wealth Effect

45:13 - Final Thanks And Sign-Off

45:42 - Important Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 191 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, go live from Chicago with Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO & CIO at KKM Financial, and Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on where markets stand now and what could matter next. The episode centers on the bull market’s concentration in AI and large-cap tech, the durability of the rally, the role of active management, and why diversification may need to look different than it did a decade ago.

The conversation also digs into earnings momentum, cross-ownership in AI, the impact of higher bond yields on long-duration assets, and whether software is being transformed or disrupted by AI.

From bubbles and breadth to bond yields, oil shocks, and portfolio construction, the episode connects live market commentary to the forces shaping returns underneath the surface.

Jump to:

0:00 — Live Crowd and Big Questions

1:48 — What A Bubble Really Means

6:00 — Earnings Momentum and AI Optimism

12:35 — Circular Ownership and AI ROI

16:05 — AI Replaces Software or Adds Cost

21:55 — 60/40 Is Not Dead Just Different

30:10 — Return Stacking and Better Diversifiers

36:30 — Oil, Inflation Volatility, and Bonds

41:40 — Concentration, Active Picks, And Dispersion

47:20 — Hard-Won Advice and Closing Thanks

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market.

The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows.

From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath.

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains.
• Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure.
• SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months.
• At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return.
• A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract.
• Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question
1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally
10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders
14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check
15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates
20:48 — Google funds AI data centers
26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats
29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes
43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

#SpaceXIPO #FactsVsFeelings #investing #stockmarket #AI #techinvesting #IPO #smallcaps #SP500 #bullmarket #NVIDIA #Starlink #Anthropic #OpenAI #marketanalysis #portfoliomanagement #indexfunds #WallStreet #fintech #CarsonGroup

In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect.

It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top.

Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm.
• Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy.
• Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment.
• Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership.
• Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating.
• Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior going

Jump to:

3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices

6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate

8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals

13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows

21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches

25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership

33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak

37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks

45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings

48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching

50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details

54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks

1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week Ahead

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating.

When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it’s not the equity market doing the hazing. It’s the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors.

From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening.

Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed.

The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on.

Key Takeaways:

• The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly.
• AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms.
• S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%.
• The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment.
• The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed?

6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair

13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data

21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice

34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash

43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending

49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final Thoughts

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999?

The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then.

From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway.

Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids.

Key Takeaways:

• Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did.
• The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today.
• AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story.
• The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average.
• The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis.
• The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question

2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes

6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment

10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons

15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps

22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals

33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks

41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break

49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn

54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and Wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month.

The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June.

From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it.

Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's.

Key Takeaways:

• "Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely.
• Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq).
• The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve.
• Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends.
• Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August.
• The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch

1:37 — Sell in May Reframed

6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality

10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months

14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness

22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist

35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices

44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift

50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks

53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Jeff:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/

• X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]