Market Pulse

Affordability is top of mind for lenders—but broad economic indicators don't always tell the full story. In this episode of Market Pulse, the Equifax Advisors share what they're hearing from customers and explore the latest Market Pulse Index and credit trends to understand how inflation, debt, income and financial stability are affecting different consumer populations. Plus, the team puts their economic instincts to the test with another round of “Headline or Hallucination.”

The U.S. consumer is sending mixed signals. In this episode of Market Pulse, the Equifax Advisors examine the latest economic and credit trends, from persistent inflation and rising household pressures to changing debt, delinquency and HELOC behavior. They also explore the widening differences among consumers—and the leading indicators lenders should watch to identify risk and uncover opportunities for selective growth.

The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient, but beneath the headline numbers, consumers are experiencing very different realities. Moody’s Analytics economist Justin Begley joins Equifax’s Olivia Voltaggio to examine the outlook for the labor market, growing stress among subprime borrowers, the persistent K-shaped economy and the housing affordability challenge. They also discuss what these trends mean for credit demand, delinquencies and the economic indicators lenders should be watching as they balance risk with opportunities for growth.

Consumer wealth has reached record highs—but the average American isn't experiencing that growth equally. In this episode, Tom O'Neill sits down with IXI Chief Strategy Officer Ian Wright to examine the growing K-shaped economy, where some households continue building wealth while others struggle with affordability and rising debt. Together, they explore what these trends mean for financial institutions, the coming Great Wealth Transfer, Gen Z banking behaviors, and how lenders can better prepare for a rapidly changing consumer landscape.

In this episode:

Why doesn't average consumer data tell the full story?

Average figures can mask significant differences between consumer groups. Although overall consumer wealth has increased substantially, median household wealth has declined, indicating many households have not shared equally in that growth. Financial institutions benefit from looking beyond averages to better understand customer risk and opportunity, according to Equifax advisors.

How can financial institutions prepare for changing consumer wealth trends?

Financial institutions should build relationships with future wealth holders before assets transfer, develop digital experiences that meet younger consumers where they are, support family financial planning, and use deeper consumer insights rather than relying solely on traditional demographic or credit metrics.

What role does the Market Pulse Index play in understanding consumers?

The Market Pulse Index combines multiple measures—including wealth, income, credit health and financial durability—to provide a more complete picture of consumer financial well-being than any single metric alone. It helps identify which households are thriving, struggling or moving between those groups.

Small business fraud is evolving — and fraudsters are using increasingly sophisticated tactics, from synthetic identities to AI-generated documents and digital deception. In this episode of Market Pulse, Equifax’s David Adams talks with Jill Molitor, Director of Fraud and Credit Administration at Stearns Bank, about how lenders can balance faster decisioning with stronger fraud prevention.

In this episode:

How are fraudsters using AI to target small businesses?

Fraudsters are increasingly using AI and digital tools to create synthetic identities, falsified documents and more sophisticated fraud schemes. These tactics can make fraudulent businesses appear legitimate, requiring lenders to look beyond traditional verification methods, according to Stearns Bank. 

What is synthetic identity fraud in business lending?

Stearns Bank describes synthetic identity fraud as a “Frankenstein” identity — where fraudsters combine fabricated or manipulated information to create a person or business profile that appears real. These identities may establish credit history before eventually defaulting, leaving lenders with limited recourse. 

Can AI solve fraud detection challenges?

Equifax and Stearns Bank discuss how AI and machine learning can help identify suspicious patterns, unusual activity and potential risks. However, technology alone is not enough. Human expertise remains critical for evaluating context, reducing false positives and making informed decisions. 

What does the Equifax Market Pulse Index reveal about the true financial health of American consumers? Equifax Advisors Emmaline Aliff, Jesse Hardin and Tom O'Neill explore how the Market Pulse Index uncovers financial stress and resilience that traditional economic measures often miss. The conversation examines the growing K-shaped economy, the "illusion of the average," generational wealth trends, and why factors such as assets, cash flow, and financial capacity provide a more complete picture of consumer health than GDP or credit scores alone. 

In this episode:

What is the Equifax Market Pulse Index?

The Equifax Market Pulse Index is a multidimensional measure of consumer financial health that combines credit behavior, income, assets, debt, and financial capacity. Unlike traditional economic indicators, it provides a more complete view of a consumer's ability to withstand financial stress and navigate economic change.

Why doesn't GDP tell the full story of consumer financial health?

GDP measures spending activity, but it doesn't reveal how consumers are financing their lifestyles. According to Equifax experts, strong spending by higher-income households can mask growing financial stress among middle- and lower-income consumers who may be relying on credit or depleting savings to keep up with rising costs.

How can lenders use the Market Pulse Index to improve decision-making?

The Market Pulse Index helps lenders look beyond traditional credit scores by incorporating a broader view of financial health. This allows organizations to identify consumers whose financial fundamentals remain strong despite short-term pressures, helping uncover opportunities while managing risk more effectively.

What opportunity should businesses and lenders be paying attention to?

According to Equifax, precision targeting is becoming increasingly important. Organizations that can identify financially resilient consumers using multidimensional data may be better positioned to grow portfolios, improve customer experiences, and uncover opportunities that traditional metrics alone might overlook.

The Equifax Advisory team breaks down the realities behind today’s “K-shaped” economy—from rising consumer debt and delinquencies to lending risk and shifting borrower behavior. With insights on everything from interest rates and inflation to auto loans and student debt, the team translates complex economic signals into practical guidance for lenders and business leaders.

In this episode:

What is a K-shaped economy?
A K-shaped economy describes a split recovery where higher-income consumers gain financial strength while lower-income groups face increasing financial stress.

Why is consumer debt rising in 2026?
Consumer debt is increasing due to higher living costs, reliance on credit cards, and uneven wage growth across income groups.

How are delinquencies impacting lenders right now?
Delinquencies—especially in auto and credit cards—are rising among subprime borrowers, making early risk detection and portfolio monitoring critical for lenders.

What should lenders watch in today’s economy?
Lenders should monitor credit use, debt-to-income ratios, and early indicators like credit card behavior to anticipate shifts in borrower risk.

How does inflation affect different income groups?
Higher-income households can typically absorb inflation, while lower-income consumers feel the impact more acutely through rising costs and limited financial flexibility.

Emmaline Aliff sits down with Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb to unpack the forces reshaping today’s auto market—from affordability pressures and credit expansion to the growing wave of used EVs. As consumers navigate rising costs and lenders adapt to shifting risk, the conversation explores what’s really driving demand—and what dealers and lenders should watch next.

In this episode:

What is driving the current auto market in 2026?

The auto market is being shaped by a mix of macroeconomic forces, including inflation, interest rates, tariffs, and consumer affordability challenges. At the same time, credit availability is expanding, creating a complex environment where demand persists despite financial pressure.

What is a K-shaped economy and how does it impact auto buyers?

A K-shaped economy means higher-income consumers are thriving while lower-income consumers face increasing financial strain. In the auto market, this results in strong demand for high-end vehicles while affordability challenges push many buyers toward used cars—or out of the market entirely.

Why is affordability such a major issue in the auto industry right now?

Affordability is being impacted by rising vehicle prices, higher interest rates, increased insurance costs, and ongoing inflation. These combined factors are making it harder for many consumers to purchase or finance a vehicle.

How is credit availability increasing despite consumer financial pressure?

Lenders are expanding access by offering longer loan terms, financing lower down payments, and taking on more subprime risk. While this increases access to credit, it can also introduce additional long-term financial strain for consumers.

What should dealers and lenders watch for in the second half of the year?

Key indicators include interest rate changes, inflation trends, mortgage activity, and continued consumer demand. Lower rates and improved economic conditions could unlock stronger sales.

The mortgage industry is debating whether to move away from the long-standing TriMerge credit reporting standard. Wendy Hannah-Olson of Equifax speaks with mathematician and behavioral modeling researcher Joni Baker at Andrew Davidson & Company about new research analyzing credit score differences across the three credit bureaus. Their discussion reveals how shifting to single or bi-merge credit reports could affect loan qualification, mortgage pricing, and risk—potentially costing consumers thousands of dollars and reshaping how lenders evaluate credit.

In this episode:

Why are lenders debating moving away from the TriMerge credit report?

Some policymakers and industry groups are exploring whether using a single credit report or a bi-merge report could reduce costs and streamline the mortgage process. However, new research suggests that using fewer credit reports may introduce pricing uncertainty, increase risk, and lead to inconsistent loan qualification outcomes.

How different can credit scores be between the three credit bureaus?

According to a recent study from Andrew Davidson & Company, credit scores across bureaus can differ significantly. In the data analyzed, 27% of consumers had score differences of at least 10 points between bureaus, 14% had differences of 20 points or more, and nearly 1 in 10 had differences of 30 points or more.

How could moving away from TriMerge affect mortgage pricing?

If lenders rely on a single credit score instead of the TriMerge median, borrowers could move between pricing tiers more frequently. In some scenarios, a change of just 10–20 credit score points could alter loan pricing, potentially affecting mortgage costs by $3,000 to $5,000 or more over the life of a loan.

Ashley Sellers of Equifax sits down with Jordan Sullivan, Director of Retail Lending at CSL Financial, to explore how modern credit scoring is reshaping mortgage lending. As one of the first lenders to adopt VantageScore for underwriting, CSL shares real-world results, from higher approval rates and lower costs to stronger portfolio performance. The conversation dives into affordability, trended credit data, thin-file borrowers, and why delaying adoption of new credit models may be a competitive disadvantage for lenders navigating today’s evolving credit ecosystem.

Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics provides our economic update.

In this episode:

Why did CSL Financial adopt VantageScore for underwriting?

CSL Financial adopted VantageScore after internal testing showed it was a stronger predictor of credit risk than legacy models. The lender found it better aligned with borrower behavior and more effective for evaluating thin and non-traditional credit files.

How does VantageScore help lenders approve more borrowers?

VantageScore uses trended credit data to evaluate whether a borrower’s financial behavior is improving or declining over time. This allows lenders to make more informed decisions than snapshot-based models, helping qualified borrowers who may have been overlooked receive approval.

What results has CSL Financial seen using VantageScore?

Since adopting VantageScore, CSL Financial has increased loan pull-through rates from approximately 8% to nearly 20%, while maintaining stable delinquency levels. The lender has also reduced credit-related costs and improved portfolio performance.

 Who benefits most from VantageScore-based underwriting?

Borrowers with thin credit files, limited credit history, or past credit challenges benefit most. This includes younger borrowers building credit and older consumers who have paid off debt and have limited active tradelines.

Why is delaying VantageScore adoption a competitive disadvantage?

Lenders who delay adoption risk higher costs, lower approval rates, and less accurate risk pricing. Early adopters like CSL Financial report both operational savings and stronger credit outcomes, making modern scoring models a competitive advantage.