Wednesday 7th July 2021Bond yields have fallen markedly as markets adopt a more cautious air. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s being driven by a number of factors, including weaker than expected ISM services numbers from the US and factory orders from Germany. The main concern in the ISM was the employment data which dropped below 50, reinforcing the belief that there is a constraint in the availability of labour. A more controlling influence from China, the growth of a more virulent COIVD strain and the uncertainty over an OPEC deal have all added to the caution. So will a strong JOLTs number and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting do anything for turn the sentiment around today? There’s also discussion on yesterday’s RBA meeting, which left the door open to earlier rate rises and tapering of QE, driven by data not dates.

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