In our second episode today, Megan Horneman looks into the ISM Manufacturing Index released today, February 1st. Megan highlights the trend of the manufacturing sector remaining in contraction for the past 15 months, staying below 50 on the index. However, she brings positive news as the index has increased to its highest level since October 2022. Megan also emphasizes a significant uptick in new orders, the most substantial since June 2020, signaling economic improvement. She addresses the Fed's potential focus on the surge in prices paid, the largest increase since December 2020, posing inflationary concerns. Tune in tomorrow as we discuss the implications of the jobs report on the Fed and equity markets. For any questions or comments, reach out to us at podcast at Verdence dot com.

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/SqG5ICIKuW8

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

In today's episode, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman discusses the events following the highly anticipated FOMC meeting on January 31st. Contrary to expectations, the Fed took a more hawkish tone, triggering a significant sell-off in the equity market. Chairman Powell's cautious stance on potential rate cuts, emphasizes the risks of premature reductions and the importance of ensuring progress in inflation. Megan challenges the optimism in the futures market, suggesting that the anticipated timing and magnitude of rate cuts may be too ambitious. She provides her perspective on the Fed funds futures market's response, indicating a delayed March rate cut while maintaining projections for cuts throughout the year. Looking ahead, Megan previews upcoming events, such as the jobs report and ISM manufacturing data, which could further influence market dynamics. For questions or comments please reach out to the podcast at Verdence dot com.

Watch today's episode here:  https://youtu.be/GHMh4oFy1Yk

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, looks into the surprising consumer confidence report in today's episode. Exceeding analyst expectations, the present situation confidence hit its highest level since 2020, while future expectations reached a six-month high. Megan talks about the key components, including the job market, revealing a significant shift in perception. Notably, lower-income brackets showed the most confidence, contrasting with a decline in confidence among those earning over $125,000 annually. Stay tuned for more insights this week, including the FOMC rate decision, ISM, and the January jobs report. For questions or comments, reach out to podcast at Verdence dot com. 

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/_2CTUyPltJ8

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

In today's segment, Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer, discusses the latest PCE inflation data. Megan breaks down the numbers, discussing the month-over-month growth of 0.2% and the year-over-year figure of 2.9%, just below the Fed's 3% target. She highlights the positive trend toward the Fed's inflation goal but suggests there could be potential volatility ahead, citing factors like developments in the Red Sea and robust economic growth. The market's response has been positive, with equity markets reflecting optimism. Next week's economic highlights include the FOMC meeting, January jobs report, ISM data, and key earnings reports. For questions or comments, reach out to us at podcast at Verdence dot com. Thank you, and go Ravens!

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/gNg-hXS5xHc

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, breaks down the latest fourth-quarter GDP report in today's episode. The report exceeded expectations with a 3.3% growth rate, outperforming the forecasted 2%. Consumer strength, contributing 70-75% to the economy, remains robust, while government spending, net exports, and domestic investment play pivotal roles in economic growth. Despite concerns about escalating government spending and a worsening deficit, the Fed finds comfort in the 2% core PCE index. The markets respond positively, aligning with the soft landing view, and the Fed is unlikely to cut rates soon, shifting focus to inflation and employment reports. For questions or feedback, reach out to podcast at Verdence dot com.

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RbZ-mZ6S_LI

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

In today's episode, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO, Megan Horneman looks into the latest Red Sea developments shaking up global trade. Houthi rebels are targeting ships in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, diverting 90% of traffic and triggering rate increases predicted by major players like MSC and HLS. Projections hint at a prolonged disruption, potentially lasting six months to a year, leading to escalating freight rates and equipment shortages. Megan discusses the global trade implications, the economic risks tied to inflation volatility, and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve. Stay informed and connect with us at podcast at Verdence dot com. 

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/83HBtEsn5kg

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Despite today's equity market dip, December 2023's retail sales report exceeded expectations, showcasing significant consumer spending across furniture, electronics, and clothing—the best year-over-year increase since January 2023. Leading the charge were clothing, merchandise department stores, and online shopping, contributing to a solid overall performance.  However, market dynamics shifted as investors recalibrated expectations on Federal Reserve actions, anticipating no interest rate cuts in March due to a strong economy.  Something to watch out for, November saw a significant uptick in credit card debt—the highest monthly increase since March 2022.  As we wait to see the December consumer credit report, the question is, how much holiday spending was put on plastic? 

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/JBGERAeEaLc

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

In this episode, we're discussing the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index inflation report released this morning. Unfortunately, the report came in hotter than expected on the headline and core inflation levels. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 3.9% versus the expected 3.8%, while headline CPI came in at 3.4% versus the forecasted 3.2%. This is unwelcome news for the Federal Reserve. We dig into the report's details showing sticky inflation in areas like housing, shelter, services, airline fares, and used cars - categories the Fed will pay close attention to. Given this hotter-than-expected inflation data, markets are down today. Specifically, bond yields rise while equity futures fall as interest rate expectations increase. Fed futures are now pricing out the possibility of a March rate cut. If you have any questions or comments on this analysis, please feel free to reach out to podcast at verdence dot com.

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/78xnkvjJTVc

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Despite remaining in negative territory, the Small Business Index witnessed its largest increase since July 2023, fueled by small business owners' optimism about a better economy, increased sales expectations, and a positive earnings trend. Verdence Capital Advisors CIO, Megan Horneman discusses the positive impact of a better-than-expected holiday shopping season in December, contributing to the overall uptick. She also talks about a significant surge in consumer credit, particularly in revolving credit (credit cards), reaching a record high of $1.3 trillion. While businesses benefit from consumer spending, Megan has concerns about the sustained reliance on credit cards, especially in the face of near-record-high interest rates. If you have questions or comments please reach out to podcast at Verdence dot com. 

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/wcGmmE7A2v0

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Join Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, as she reviews the latest jobs report. While the headlines flash the creation of 216,000 new jobs, Megan looks behind the headlines, revealing a potential slowdown in the workforce. This episode isn't just about the numbers; it's an exploration of the subtle shifts that suggest bigger economic currents are at play. From the surprising dip in labor force participation to the rise in average hourly earnings, Megan's analysis considers the nuances that might escape a casual glance, and what these changes suggest about the future of inflation and the Federal Reserve's next moves.

How will a near-contraction in the ISM services report affect where we spend our money? What does the increase in part-time employment for economic reasons mean for the overall job market? As we dissect these indicators, we also confront the market's reaction—equity rallies and dips in bond yields—while forecasting the Fed's interest rate decisions. 

Watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/u4wrsW2UsH0

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...