In this episode, Argus examines the intensifying supply squeeze in global aluminum markets following the outbreak of the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With inventories at historically low levels and competition for units increasing across regions, supply security has become the dominant concern for consumers. Our experts explore how trade flows, premiums and secondary markets are responding, and why tightness may persist through the remainder of 2026.

Covered in this episode

• Why security of supply has overtaken sustainability and policy as the top priority for aluminum buyers

• The impact of Middle East disruption on global availability, inventories and LME market structure

• How European and US premiums are moving — and why further upside remains likely

• The role of tariffs, trade flows and regional competition in shaping the US aluminium market

• Why demand destruction has so far been limited despite historically high prices

• The outlook for supply if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the immediate future — including the release of stockpiled metal

• How scrap and secondary aluminum markets are responding, particularly in Europe and the US