Analyst Dmitry Zaytsev has a bearish outlook regarding upcoming financials in the cannabis space. He notes that the average OCS purchase is approximately $70 and estimates Canadian recreational cannabis revenue in calendar Q4 2018 to be $150 million. He suggests LPs captured 60 percent of that recreational total; as a result, the LPs are competing for approximately $90 million in recreational revenue. Consequently, Zaytsev thinks there is a disconnect between established revenue numbers and analysts’ predictions for upcoming financial reporting. One company Zaytsev believes will hit its targets is Aurora Cannabis Inc (TSE:ACB) (NYSE:ACB) (FRA:21P). Zaytsev attributes the recent surge in the Canadian cannabis space to short covering and FOMO sentiment. Ultimately, he believes US companies offer a better value proposition and are more likely to deliver better revenue numbers than the Canadian names.
Transcript:
James West: Joined now by Dmitry Zaytsev. Dmitry, welcome back.
Dmitry Zaytsev: Happy to be here, James.
James West: Dmitry, you have a less than rosy outlook on upcoming financials that are going to be released starting very quickly here. Give us an overview of what you’re thinking.
Dmitry Zaytsev: Yeah, so just big picture, I don’t know if it’s less rosy, but I think it’s good to be realistic about what the expectations are from analysts; what the expectations are from investors; and what the numbers are that are actually coming out.
So on this first slide, just to remind everyone, you know, share prices go up and down, but the market capitalization of a lot of these firms has rallied significantly. So I have the Top 8 cannabis firms by market cap here, that are based in Canada.
James West: And those numbers are in the billions on the left?
Dmitry Zaytsev: So it’s in the millions, but it’s 20, yes, so it’s 20 billion, for example, if you’re looking on the fourth line there.
James West: Interesting. So WEED’s well up above 20 billion.
Dmitry Zaytsev: Yeah. And so some of the deals, you know, haven’t gone through yet, so it’s as deals close and, you know…
James West: Can you put that chart up again, please? Thank you. Okay, so Tilray is 25 billion; oh that’s when it was at $300 a share.
Dmitry Zaytsev: Yeah, and this is in Canadian dollars, right?