In this episode of Moral Mayhem, we stick up for those without a voice — bankers and hedge fund managers. We explore why middle men and financiers - from ancient moneylenders to modern hedge funds - are unique objects of scorn in the eyes of the public. We discuss the ethics of payday lending and consumer credit, the social value of public markets, positive externalities of active management and the oft-repeated claim that finance “sucks up too much talent”. In our introductory segment, we discuss Shrimp Welfare — a recently trending topic on Substack and the assumptions that underpin the Effective Altruism movement.

This week we were joined by our friend Jacob Falkovich. Jacob publishes some of the best “White-pilled” dating advice out there on his blog Second Person, and in addition to being a great Twitter follow he’s also known for putanumonit. We discuss the importance of agency in dating, the negativity bias prevalent in dating discourse, and the limited use-cases for dating apps. Jacob suggests taking a break from the metanarratives about dating (and how hopeless it is) to focus on your actual experiences—who are you meeting, what kind of things do you want to do with a partner (as opposed to what can you notice about them in the first 10 seconds), what is your actual dating market and is there a way to make it more favorable? We also touch on transactional relationships and the impact of identity and social norms on dating choices. Jacob suggests that when looking for a match, it’s always helpful if you generally like and care about people of the other sex, but he’s optimistic even about incels who he thinks are just “one smile from a cute girl away” from tossing their self-defeating ideology in the bin. Stay tuned to the end to hear Jacob’s take on the Barbie movie.

We’re talking about Love is Blind, the ‘scientific’ dating ‘experiment’ to discover how shallow reality TV stars really are (see the video version on Youtube). The show involves men and women dating in pods where they can hear but not see one another, and ultimately getting engaged “sight unseen” (at least if they want to stay on the show). We discuss how the ‘experiment’ can be understood as an attempt to solve an adverse selection problem for people who feel they overweight looks, or a particular type, to their own detriment and whether they achieve the promise of the show. And at the end we discuss the most interesting couple’s dynamics (to us) on the latest season: Marissa and Ramses, Hannah and Nick, and Tyler and Ashley.

Check us out on Youtube for the video version of the episode.

Chapters:

* 00:00 Introduction to Love is Blind

* 06:13 The Experiment of Love is Blind

* 11:49 Reality TV Dynamics and Contestant Motivations

* 17:56 The Nature of Attraction and Compatibility

* 24:10 Transactional Relationships and Marriage

* 29:53 Is This Modern Arranged Marriage?

* 39:19 Incentives and Filtering

* 42:14 (Lack of) Privacy

* 45:31 Marissa and Ramses

* 58:05 Hannah and Nick

In this episode, we chat with Robin Hanson about his proposed solution to falling fertility rates in the US: since each newborn is effectively responsible for hundreds of thousands in national debt obligations, governments could endow parents with a portion of their children’s future tax payments - creating a win-win scenario where both parents and the nation's fiscal future benefit. Robin also shares his approach to his career, risk-taking and how to succeed as a polymath. 

Relevant Links:

Policy proposal to incentivize higher fertility (Robin Hanson)

Can we afford to buy marginal babies (Regan Arntz-Gray)

That fertile formula is inefficient (Regan Arntz-Gray)

Robin Hanson and Agnes Callard on Transformative Choices

In this conversation, we chat with Robin Hanson about his thesis on cultural drift, exploring the implications of the global monoculture and reduced selection pressures on the long-term future of humanity.  We think through the mechanisms for and potential solutions to cultural drift, such as deep multiculturalism, human-level AI, adaptive transcendent narratives, prediction markets (futarchy) and more.

Links to Hanson's posts on Cultural Drift:

Rational Culture

When Lawyers Sing

Floppy vs Stiff Concepts

Culture Drift Predicts Decadence

Betrayed by Culture

Links to other work by Hanson's that you might find interesting:

Hanson's Book on Signaling Theory - Elephant in the Brain (we highly recommend this book!)

Hanson's Book on Brain Emulation - The Age of Em

Overcoming Bias - Hanson's Blog

Hanson's Paper on Futarchy

In this conversation, we chat with Robin Hanson about his thesis on cultural drift, exploring the implications of the global monoculture and reduced selection pressures on the long-term future of humanity.  We think through the mechanisms for and potential solutions to cultural drift, such as deep multiculturalism, human-level AI, adaptive transcendent narratives, prediction markets (futarchy) etc. Our discussion also touches on status games, signaling, sacred values, cultural imperialism, relationship norms, fertility policy, careers and more.

Robin Hanson's Books

Elephant in the Brain

The Age of Em

Robin Hanson's Posts on Cultural Drift

How to fix cultural drift

Betrayed by culture

Culture drift predicts decadence

Floppy vs stiff concepts

When lawyers sing

Rational culture

Other Links Referenced in the Episode

Agnes Callard and Robin Hanson on Transformative Choices

What is Futarchy?

Timestamps

00:52 Defining culture and adaptiveness

03:41 Selection Pressures and Cultural Evolution

07:04 Cultural Continuity and Change

10:36 Global Monoculture and Its Implications

11:39 Status Competition and Cultural Dominance

14:57 The Future of Cultural Evolution

17:17 Moral Reasoning and Cultural Values

19:28 Long-term Survival and Cultural Influence

26:42 Deep Multiculturalism and Its Challenges

34:28 The Impact of Cultural Values on Behavior

36:40 Monoculture and Its Global Influence

40:20 China's Role in the Global Monoculture

43:14 Cultural Variation and Its Importance

46:36 Potential Solutions to Cultural Drift

49:24 The Influence of AI on Future Cultures

53:23 Long-term Goals and Cultural Adaptation

01:02:38 Cultural Retvrn and Adaptation

01:05:44 Mental Health as a Sign of Drift

01:09:15 The Farmer-Forager Transition

01:15:03 Drifting Social Norms

01:19:07 Why isn’t Anyone Engaging with Cultural Drift?

01:23:29 Economic Incentives and Fertility

01:38:03 How Economic Incentives Drive Cultural Solutions

01:43:55 Policy Proposals around Fertility

01:52:48 Career Reflections and Academic Insights

In this episode of Moral Mayhem, we discuss and debate the ideas presented in Robin Hanson's essays on cultural drift. We examine his central argument that the emergence of a global monoculture, coupled with reduced existential pressures such as war and famine, enables the persistence of biologically maladaptive cultural values— falling fertility rates being the case in point. Some related questions we touch on:

-- The challenges of aligning incentives and welfare across space and time

-- The feasibility of consciously shaping cultural values

-- The interplay between technological progress, economic incentives, and fertility rates

-- The possibility of maintaining cultural diversity while preserving peace and cooperation

Links to Hanson’s blogs on the topic:

How to fix cultural drift

Betrayed by culture

Culture drift predicts decadence

Floppy vs stiff concepts

When lawyers sing

Rational culture

In this episode, we explore the moral tension surrounding illegal immigration in the United States. We discuss:

* The ethical implications of deporting people who have built lives in America

* The disparity in moral outrage between the fates of legal and illegal immigrants

* The selection effects of illegal immigration

* The fiscal impact of unauthorized immigrants

* The need for democratic consensus on immigration policy versus circumventing laws

* How the perception of border control affects the ability to have rational immigration policy discussions?

In this episode, we discuss the hidden pitfalls of modern dating apps and job search platforms. We explore how the necessity of filtering large pools of candidates, combined with the limitations of relying on easily legible traits, can lead to counterintuitive outcomes.

We discuss:

* Why the traits easiest to filter for aren't always the most important

* How correlated preferences among users amplify filtering effects

* The composition of candidate pools and why being in the pool longer isn't always a good sign

* The paradox of how stringent filtering can lead to lower-quality matches

* Strategies for navigating these challenges in both dating and job searches

In this episode, we sit down with Maxim Lott (author of Maximum Truth) to dive into prediction markets, focusing on election betting markets. We explore liquidity, market depth, and whether concerns over market manipulation hold water. We also indulge in some meta-political analysis, offering our intuitions on the best arguments and tail risks for each candidate in the current race.