MPC Markets Morning Call

The US-Iran conflict intensified overnight as Trump launched “Project Freedom” to escort vessels through Hormuz, triggering Iranian missile fire on US destroyers and a drone strike on the UAE’s Fujairah oil port. US Central Command said it successfully guided two American-flagged ships through the strait while repelling attacks and destroying small boats. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,201.75 with all 11 sectors except energy in the red, the Dow dropped 1.1% to 48,941.90, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% to 25,067.80. Brent crude surged 5.4% to $114.03 while WTI jumped 3.3% to $105.26. Bond yields spiked sharply — 10-year Treasuries +7bp to 4.44%, 30-year yields above 5% for the first time since July. Gold fell 2.1% to $4,517.21. In a stunning escalation, China ordered its companies to defy US sanctions on Iranian-linked refiners, issuing an unprecedented blocking order ahead of the Trump–Xi summit. Morgan Stanley raised hyperscaler AI capex forecasts to $800 billion for 2026 and $1.1 trillion for 2027. Q1 earnings growth has doubled to 27.8% from 14.4% at the start of April. ASX 200 futures fell 70 points to 8,645, with the RBA expected to hike 25bp to 4.35% at 2:30pm AEST.

Key Takeaways

01 The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,201.75, the Dow dropped 1.1% to 48,941.90, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% to 25,067.80 as all sectors except energy declined, while KOSPI surged 5% in Asia and Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $80,000.

02 Trump’s “Project Freedom” drew Iranian missile fire on US destroyers, a drone strike on the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub (three injuries), and US forces destroyed seven Iranian small boats — two US merchant ships transited the strait successfully.

03 Brent crude surged 5.4% to $114.03 and WTI jumped 3.3% to $105.26, while 30-year Treasury yields breached 5% for the first time since July, 10-year yields rose 7bp to 4.44%, and gold fell 2.1% to $4,517.21.

04 China issued an unprecedented blocking order telling companies to defy US sanctions on Iranian-linked refiners including Hengli Petrochemical, escalating the US–China confrontation weeks before the Trump–Xi summit.

05 Morgan Stanley raised hyperscaler AI capex forecasts to $800B for 2026 and $1.1T for 2027; Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth has nearly doubled to 27.8% — the highest since late 2021 — while Palantir guided for 71% full-year revenue growth.

06 ASX 200 futures fell 70 points to 8,645, with the RBA expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike to 4.35% at 2:30pm AEST, and Westpac results, AMD earnings and April US non-farm payrolls due this week.

US equities surged to close out April with the S&P 500’s best month since November 2020, gaining 10.4% to close above 7,200 for the first time. GDP data showed AI-driven business investment powering the economy through the Iran war headwinds, while Japan intervened in currency markets for the first time in two years, sending the yen surging 2.5%. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 7,210.24, the Dow jumped 1.6% to 49,651.95, and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 24,892.31. After hours, Apple reported record revenue but shares dipped 0.7%. Oil retreated from a $126 intraday spike to settle at $105.35 WTI. The ECB and BOE both held rates steady.

A divided Federal Reserve held rates steady in what was Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, while Brent crude surged 7% toward $120 a barrel and four Mag 7 companies delivered a mixed earnings bag that rattled after-hours trading. The S&P 500 was flat at 7,136.52, the Nasdaq edged up 0.6%, but the Dow fell 0.6%. After the bell, Alphabet jumped 7% on blockbuster cloud growth, but Meta slid 7% after raising capex guidance to $125–$145 billion, Microsoft’s Azure growth barely met estimates at 39%, and Amazon fell 2.6% despite record profits as capex surged to $44.2 billion. Money markets abandoned rate-cut bets and began pricing in a possible 2027 hike. ASX 200 futures are down 53 points.

US equities pulled back sharply from record highs on Tuesday as a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed key user and revenue targets ignited a sell-off across the AI complex, just hours before five Magnificent Seven companies report earnings. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,138.80 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9% to 24,663.80 — its worst day in a month — while Brent crude surged to $111 for its seventh straight session of gains. In a seismic shift for energy markets, the UAE announced it is leaving OPEC effective 1 May. Goldman Sachs warned investors to brace for a near-term pullback as positioning is stretched and pension funds may sell more than $25 billion in equities. ASX 200 futures are down 37 points to 8,694, with Australian CPI due at 11:30am AEST.

US equities held at record highs in subdued trading on Monday as investors braced for the most consequential week of the year — five Magnificent Seven earnings reports, a Fed meeting that may be Jerome Powell’s last as chair, and Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 7,173.89 and the Nasdaq edged up 0.2% to 24,887.10, both fresh records, while Brent crude surged 3% to above $108 a barrel for its sixth straight session of gains. Iran proposed an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade, with Trump convening his national security team to discuss. ASX 200 futures point to a 0.6% fall.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs on Friday, buoyed by Intel’s 23.7% surge and renewed hopes for US–Iran peace talks, but the weekend brought a sharp reversal in diplomacy as Trump cancelled his envoys’ trip to Pakistan and peace negotiations stalled. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 7,165.08, the Nasdaq rose 1.6% to 24,836.60, and the SOX semiconductor index extended its record winning streak to 18 sessions. Brent crude settled at $106.15 as fewer than five ships crossed Hormuz in the past 24 hours against a pre-war daily average of roughly 130. A monster week lies ahead — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple all report, the Fed meets in what may be Jerome Powell’s last outing as chair, and Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data are due.

US equities pulled back from record territory on Thursday as an escalating naval standoff in the Strait of Hormuz overwhelmed a solid earnings season. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,108.97 after touching an intraday record of 7,147.78, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9% to 24,438.50 — its biggest decline in a month — and the Dow slipped 0.4% to 49,309.33. Trump ordered the Navy to fire on Iranian boats laying mines in the strait and declared the US had “total control” of Hormuz, while Axios reported Iran had deployed additional mines. Brent crude surged 4% to $106.00 a barrel, extending its weekly gains as Dated Brent physical prices climbed above $107. The SOX semiconductor index extended its record run to a 17th consecutive session of gains. After the closing bell, Intel soared 19% on AI-fuelled revenue guidance that crushed estimates, while Meta and Microsoft announced plans to cut or buy out up to 23,000 jobs to offset AI spending. ASX 200 futures slipped 4 points to 8,828, with the Australian dollar at US$0.7130.

Key Takeaways

01

The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,108.97 after touching an intraday record at 7,147.78, the Nasdaq dropped 0.9% to 24,438.50, and the Dow slipped 0.4% to 49,309.33, with the SOX semiconductor index extending its winning streak to 17 days.

02

Trump ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and declared “total control” of the waterway, while Iran reportedly deployed additional mines and mediators scrambled to salvage peace talks.

03

Brent crude surged 4% to $106.00 a barrel — up for a fourth consecutive session — with WTI rising 0.8% to $96.60, as Hormuz disruptions keep physical markets signalling acute near-term supply tightness.

04

Texas Instruments surged 19.4% on strong guidance while Tesla fell 3.7% on $25B+ capex plans, IBM dropped 8.3% and ServiceNow cratered 17.7% as software stocks bore the brunt of AI-disruption fears.

05

Intel soared 19% after hours on AI-fuelled Q2 revenue guidance of $13.8–$14.8 billion versus the $13.07 billion estimate, while Meta and Microsoft announced cuts affecting up to 23,000 jobs to offset AI infrastructure spending.

06

ASX 200 futures slipped 4 points to 8,828, the Australian dollar held at US$0.7130, and Trump extended the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks, removing a key roadblock to broader Middle East negotiations.

US equities extended their remarkable April run on Wednesday as Trump’s decision to indefinitely extend the Iran ceasefire removed the immediate threat of a return to hostilities, lifting the S&P 500 1.1% to a record 7,137.90 and the Nasdaq 1.6% to 24,657.57. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.7% to 49,490.03. Semiconductor stocks were again the standout, with the SOX index recording a 16th consecutive session of gains — the longest winning streak in the index’s history — driven by expectations of 57% sector revenue growth in 2026. Brent crude settled near $102 a barrel as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted, with Iran seizing two commercial vessels and firing on ships despite the ceasefire. Nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 results have beaten earnings estimates so far, with GE Vernova surging 13.75% after raising guidance and Tesla gaining 4.6% after-hours on a surprise positive free cash flow. ASX 200 futures fell 23 points to 8,855, with the Australian dollar steady at US$0.7159 and S&P Global’s preliminary April PMIs due at 9am AEST.

Key Takeaways

01 The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to a record 7,137.90, the Nasdaq rose 1.6% to 24,657.57, and the Dow added 0.7% to 49,490.03, with the SOX semiconductor index recording its longest-ever 16-day winning streak.

02 Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely after Pakistan’s mediation request, though Iran says it will not negotiate until the US naval blockade is lifted and has set no timeline for a proposal.

03 Brent crude settled near $102 a barrel and WTI at $92.46 as Iran seized two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and fired on a third, keeping the waterway at a near-standstill.

04 Q1 earnings are tracking 14% growth with nearly 80% of S&P 500 reporters beating estimates; GE Vernova surged 13.75%, Boeing rose 5.53%, and Tesla gained 4.6% after-hours on a surprise positive free cash flow.

05 China’s support for Iran has clear limits — Beijing buys 90% of Iran’s oil exports but has avoided military backing, with Xi Jinping calling for Hormuz to reopen while balancing ties with Gulf rivals ahead of a Trump summit.

06 ASX 200 futures fell 23 points to 8,855, the Australian dollar held at US$0.7159, and S&P Global preliminary April PMIs are due at 9am AEST with Fortescue, Santos and Woodside AGM on Thursday’s agenda.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.05, extending its retreat from record highs as VP Vance called off his trip to Pakistan and Iran refused to attend further negotiations. Oil surged above $100 intraday before Trump’s after-hours ceasefire extension knocked Brent back below $100 — WTI settled at $92.13 (+2.8%) and Brent near $95. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.31% as Warsh’s hawkish testimony — calling for a new inflation framework and “regime change” in policy conduct — crushed rate-cut expectations to just a 30% chance before January. Apple shed 2.5% on news Tim Cook will step down as CEO in September, replaced by hardware chief John Ternus. US retail sales surged 1.7% in March, with gasoline station receipts jumping 15.5% — masking weaker underlying demand. ASX 200 futures point to 8,915 (-63 pts / -0.70%), with Axios reporting Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is expected to respond to the latest proposals on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.05, the Nasdaq slipped 0.6% to 24,259.96 and the Dow dropped 0.6% to 49,149.60 — a second straight decline from record highs, with 10 of 11 S&P sectors lower and only energy advancing.

Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely after the bell, citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” leadership, but maintained the Hormuz blockade; Vance’s Pakistan trip was called off after Iran refused to attend talks.

WTI rose 2.8% to $92.13 and Brent settled near $95 after touching $100 intraday; spot gold fell 3.0% to $4,677.24 as the dollar strengthened and yields surged on Warsh’s hawkish testimony.

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh called for “regime change” at the central bank and a new inflation framework, sending the 10-year yield up 6 bps to 4.31% and cutting rate-cut odds to 30% before January.

Apple fell 2.5% as Tim Cook announced he will step down as CEO on September 1 in favour of hardware chief John Ternus; Amazon invested an additional $5 billion in Anthropic; Deutsche Telekom is weighing a full T-Mobile merger.

ASX 200 futures fell 63 points to 8,915 (-0.70%); BHP, South32 and Paladin Energy report Wednesday; Axios says Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei expected to respond to proposals on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,110.22, snapping a five-day advance, as oil’s 5%+ surge weighed on sentiment. Brent crude settled above $95 at $95.02 (+5.1%) and WTI climbed to $88.58 (+5.6%) after Iran’s weekend re-closure of Hormuz and the US Navy’s seizure of the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska underscored the fragility of the truce. Trump declared it “highly unlikely” he would extend the ceasefire, adding the strait would remain blockaded until a deal is signed. Citigroup warned Brent could reach $110 if Hormuz disruptions persist for another month. Kuwait declared a further force majeure on oil shipments, reflecting infrastructure damage so severe that full supply cannot resume even when the strait reopens. ASX 200 futures closed at 9,023 (+48 pts / +0.53%), with the open likely shaped by overnight oil moves and ceasefire-deadline risk.