MPC Markets Morning Call

Friday’s euphoric rally — which pushed the S&P 500 to a record 7,125.36 (+1.2%) and sent Brent crude tumbling 8.7% to $90.71 — is being unwound after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, citing the continued US naval blockade of its ports. Weekend futures show Brent crude surging 7.25% while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.01%. The US Navy seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska after firing on its engine room — the first major encounter of the week-old blockade. Iran has declared it will skip the next round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad and warned that vessels approaching Hormuz “will be considered cooperation with the enemy.” At least 135 million barrels of crude remain trapped on tankers in the Persian Gulf. ASX 200 futures point to an 82-point gain at 9,056 based on Friday’s close, but the weekend Hormuz reversal and oil spike are expected to pressure the open sharply lower.

Key Takeaways

01 The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,125.36 (+1.2%), the Nasdaq hit 24,468.48 (+1.5%) and the Dow surged to 49,447.92 (+1.8%) on Friday, capping an 11.9% three-week rally — but weekend futures show the Nasdaq 100 down 1.01%.

02 Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours of reopening it, with IRGC gunboats firing on commercial vessels and at least 13 oil tankers forced to turn back toward the Persian Gulf.

03 Brent crude plunged 8.7% to $90.71 on Friday but weekend futures surged 7.25%, with at least 135 million barrels of crude stuck on tankers in the Gulf and the energy crunch far from resolved.

04 The US Navy seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska after firing on its engine room — the first boarding of the week-old blockade — while Iran declared it has no plan to attend the next round of talks in Islamabad.

05 Netflix slumped 9.7% on below-expectation revenue growth guidance and the departure of co-founder Reed Hastings, while travel stocks (Royal Caribbean, United Airlines, Carnival) led S&P 500 gainers on Hormuz optimism.

06 ASX 200 futures closed Friday at 9,056 (+82 pts / +0.91%), but the weekend Hormuz reversal and oil spike are expected to weigh heavily on the open; the AUD led losses among risk-sensitive currencies in early Asian trading.

US equities edged to fresh record highs as optimism over a potential Iran peace deal kept markets buoyant, but gains were capped by warnings that a resolution could take six months. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to settle at 7,039.37, extending its remarkable run from the March lows. Brent crude surged more than 4% toward $99 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. SPI futures point to a flat open for the ASX on Friday.

Wall Street reached all-time record highs on Wednesday as investors priced in growing optimism for a peace deal and rotated aggressively back into technology stocks. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.81, its first record close since January 27, while the Nasdaq Composite hit 24,016.02, eclipsing its previous October peak. The catalyst was twofold: a major rotation into software stocks — which had lagged for months on AI disruption fears — and diplomatic signals that the US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more negotiating time, with mediators working on compromises covering the nuclear program, Hormuz, and war compensation. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley completed the bank earnings sweep with record trading results, while the broader sector cut more than 5,000 jobs amid a push into AI efficiency. Oil was essentially flat — Brent at ~$95/barrel (+0.1%), WTI at $91.14 (-0.2%) — and gold fell 1% to $4,794 as risk appetite lifted. The AUD reached its highest close since June 2022, rising 0.7% to US71.8¢. The major ASX-specific risk this morning is an overnight fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery, representing approximately 10% of Australian fuel supply, with jet fuel and diesel production continuing at reduced levels. ASX 200 futures sit near-flat at 9,018 (-3pts).

Two months into the Iran war, Wall Street has decided to shrug. The S&P 500 closed at 6,967.38 on Tuesday — 1.3% above its pre-war level of February 27 and within 12 points of a fresh all-time record — as three tailwinds converged: a cooler-than-expected US PPI print, strong Q1 bank earnings, and renewed diplomatic signals from both Washington and Tehran. March PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month (vs 1.1% forecast) and core PPI gained just 0.1%, providing relief on the inflation front even as headline energy costs remain elevated. JPMorgan posted a record trading quarter with markets revenue up 20% to $11.6 billion, Citigroup recorded its highest quarterly revenue in a decade, and BlackRock pulled in $130 billion in net inflows. Oil fell sharply — Brent dropped ~4% to ~$95/barrel, WTI fell 7% to $92.14 — as the IEA warned the war will wipe out global oil demand growth for the first time since 2020. A second round of US–Iran talks is being arranged, with Trump telling the New York Post negotiations could resume “over the next two days” in Pakistan. The ASX 200 is set for a positive open with futures at 9,047 (+0.50%), aided by Yancoal’s $2.5 billion acquisition of the Kestrel coal mine and Australia’s March employment data due Wednesday.

US equities staged a decisive recovery on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 1% at 6,887 to fully erase all losses sustained since the outbreak of the Iran war six weeks ago. President Donald Trump’s declaration that Iran “wants to make a deal” sparked the rally even as the US Navy enforced a new blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel before paring gains on talk of renewed negotiations. The ASX is set to open higher as risk appetite returns to global markets.

The “peace dividend” that drove global equities sharply higher last week has evaporated overnight after US–Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed following 21 hours of talks. President Trump has declared a full US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “effective immediately,” with CENTCOM confirming enforcement commences at 12am Tuesday AEST. The Australian dollar fell 1% in early Sydney trading as risk-sensitive currencies led losses, oil is expected to retrace last week’s decline, and the ASX faces a sharply lower open as the Hormuz war premium reasserts itself.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.66, the Dow +0.58% to 48,185.80 (now positive YTD), and the Nasdaq +0.83% to 22,822.42, marking the index’s seventh consecutive session of gains — its longest run since October.

Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah, boosting ceasefire credibility, though Iran’s new supreme leader signalled Hormuz will enter “a new stage” of management and US–Iran peace talks in Islamabad are set for Saturday.

WTI crude settled near $99.21 (+5.1%) and Brent near $97.17 (+2.6%) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, with Saudi Arabia’s production capacity cut by 600,000 bpd from attacks on energy facilities — roughly one-tenth of normal Saudi exports.

February PCE inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month to 3.0% year-on-year — above the Fed’s 2% target and pre-dating the oil shock — while Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.5% annualised growth, raising the prospect of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts.

Carlyle Group’s $7 billion private credit fund capped redemptions at 5% after investors sought to withdraw 15.7% of shares, as AI disruption fears and software sector stress continue to roil private credit markets and the broader $1.8 trillion industry.

ASX 200 futures are near flat at 9,002 (–1 point at 7:45am AEST); Atlassian fell 7.6% in New York and will weigh at the open, with China’s March CPI/PPI at 11:30am AEST and US CPI due tonight at 10:30pm AEST as key catalysts.

Key Takeaways

Global equities surged: the S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 6,783.48, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.9%, the Dow gained 2.8% to 47,910.79 (best day in a year), and the MSCI World Index climbed 3%.

The US-Iran two-week ceasefire — agreed just 90 minutes before Trump’s deadline — triggered a classic “TACO Tuesday” relief rally, though Iran accused the US of violations within hours due to ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Oil had its biggest single-session collapse in five years: WTI fell 15% to $96.06 a barrel and Brent fell 13% to around $95, though analysts warn prices are unlikely to return to sub-$70 pre-war levels quickly.

Bond markets staged a partial recovery — 10-year Treasuries held at 4.29% and European yields fell sharply — but pre-war rate-cut bets are unlikely to return as Fed minutes revealed growing support for potential hikes.

AI remained a powerful market theme: Goldman Sachs Asset Management identified semiconductors and cybersecurity as key “picks and shovels” plays, while Meta debuted its closed Muse Spark model and Anthropic restricted its Mythos AI due to cyberattack concerns.

The ASX 200 futures pointed to a flat-to-lower open, down 22 points (0.2%) to 8,967 near 7am AEDT; no local data Thursday, with the key watch being US Core PCE inflation released at 10:30pm AEST.

Key Takeaways

US equities reversed early losses to finish near flat — S&P 500 +0.1% to 6,617.74, Nasdaq +0.1% to 22,017.85, Dow -0.2% to 46,584.33 — as Pakistan’s ceasefire request sparked a late-session relief rally.

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif requested Trump extend the Iran Hormuz deadline by two weeks and urged all parties to observe a ceasefire, with Tehran said to be “positively reviewing” the proposal; Trump described the talks as “heated negotiations.”

Brent crude fell 2.1% to $107.48 intraday before sliding further to $104.50 in post-settlement trade; WTI edged down 0.1% to $112.29; the EIA raised its 2026 average WTI forecast 22% to $96/bbl for the year.

Broadcom surged more than 6% after inking a long-term AI chip supply agreement with Google through 2031, while UnitedHealth jumped over 9% and Humana advanced ~8% on a higher-than-expected Medicare Advantage rate increase for 2027.

ASX SPI futures +0.2% to 8,775; AUD +0.8% among session’s biggest FX gainers ahead of today’s RBA policy decision, with Friday’s US CPI print the next key global data event.

Key Takeaways

1. US equities extended their winning streak to four sessions: S&P 500 +0.45% to 6,612.02, Nasdaq Composite +0.54% to 21,996.34, Dow Jones +0.36% to 46,669.88, MSCI World +0.3%.

2. Iran formally rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal brokered by Pakistan, issuing a 10-condition counter-demand; Trump’s Tuesday 8 p.m. EDT deadline for Hormuz reopening remains “final.”

3. WTI crude rose 0.7% to $112.31/bbl — its highest close since June 2022 — while Brent crude settled above $109/bbl; gold fell 0.5% to $4,655.04/oz.

4. US 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.34%; the Bloomberg Dollar Index slipped 0.1%; AUD and GBP were the strongest G10 FX performers overnight.

5. Blue Owl Capital shares hit a record low of $8.45, capping eight straight months of losses as BDC redemption pressures intensify across the $1.8 trillion private credit market.

6. ASX 200 futures point to a flat open at 8,614 (+5 pts, +0.05%); the AUD outperformed G10 peers overnight; S&P Global March PMI Composite due at 9am AEST.