MPC Markets Morning Call

US equities extended their two-day recovery with the S&P 500 adding 0.7% to 6,573.89 as Trump claimed Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim Tehran immediately rejected as “false and baseless.” WTI crude briefly broke below $100 for the first time since the war began, and Brent slipped to $101. Gold surged 2.1% to $4,765 as the de-escalation narrative held, while data showed US retail sales and manufacturing beat expectations in February. All eyes now turn to Trump’s prime-time address to the nation (midday Thursday AEDT), where he is expected to declare military success and signal a 2–3 week exit from the conflict. The ASX is pointed to a modest open of 8,728 (+0.2%), though analysts warn the late-week selloff pattern that has dogged markets since the war began still looms.

Tuesday’s market euphoria was driven by two converging headlines: Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the country has the “necessary will to end this war” with guarantees, and the WSJ reported Trump told aides he is willing to end military operations even if Hormuz remains closed. The S&P 500 gained 2.9%, the Nasdaq Composite added 3.8%, and the Dow rose 2.5% — the biggest day for all three since the war began on February 28. The NYSE Tick Index hit an all-time high of 2,329. Yet the scepticism is warranted: Iran’s stated conditions are largely recycled from early March, the IRGC announced it would target 18 US companies from April 1, and Brent crude settled at $103.97 — still more than double pre-war levels. Brent notched a record monthly gain of +43.8% for March, while WTI surged 52.6% for the month. Gold had its worst month since October 2008, down 11.3%, but rebounded 3.8% Tuesday on de-escalation hopes. US gasoline topped $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. The ASX is set to open sharply higher at 8,643 (+1.5%), with NAB data warning household fuel bills are surging 36% above February averages.

Key Takeaways

01 The S&P 500 surged 2.9%, the Nasdaq 100 added 3.4%, and the Dow gained 2.5% — the biggest single-session rally since May 2025 — as the NYSE Tick Index hit an all-time record of 2,329, reflecting extreme breadth of buying. Nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors rose, led by tech and communications (+4%), semiconductors (+6%), and airlines (+5%).

02 Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the country has the “necessary will to end this war” contingent on security guarantees; Trump told aides via WSJ he is willing to exit without reopening the Strait of Hormuz — but analysts call it recycled diplomacy, with the IRGC simultaneously threatening 18 US companies including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Tesla and Boeing.

03 Oil fell on the peace headlines: WTI settled near $102.13 (-0.7%) and Brent at $103.97 (-$3.42) — but both benchmarks still closed Q1 at record monthly gains, with Brent +43.8% and WTI +52.6% for March. A Kuwaiti oil tanker (Al-Salmi) was set ablaze by an Iranian strike off Dubai during the session.

04 Gold surged 3.8% to $4,684.45/oz on de-escalation hopes and position squaring, though gold still logged its worst monthly performance since October 2008, down 11.3% for March. Silver jumped 7.1% to $75.10/oz. The USD fell 0.6% to 99.96, snapping a five-session winning streak.

05 US JOLTS data showed job openings fell more than expected in February and hiring dropped to its lowest level in nearly six years — pointing to a softening labour market before the Iran war shock fully flows through. Friday’s March payrolls report (consensus: +60,000 vs. –92,000 in February) will be the key data event of the week.

06 ASX 200 futures are pointing to an open of 8,643, up 130 points (+1.5%). NAB warns that Australian household fuel spending surged 36% above February averages in March, with inflation expected to push back above 5% in the June quarter. AGL approved a $490m gas plant in WA; Goldman Sachs lifted its aluminium price forecast to $3,450/tonne for Q2.

The first quarter of 2026 closes with markets scarred by the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.33 on Monday, leaving it 8.7% below its record close, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.73% to 20,795.20 and the Dow eked out a 0.12% gain to 45,219.91, technically exiting correction territory. WTI crude rose 4.6% to $104.18 a barrel and Brent topped $115 intraday before settling near $114.22, putting Brent on track for a record monthly percentage gain. The quarter has been historic for energy markets — Brent is up 85% since January, its largest quarterly rise since 1990. Gold gave back some ground but remains elevated at $4,516.16/oz after its steepest monthly drop in almost 20 years. Powell’s “wait and see” stance trimmed wagers on Fed hikes, pushing US 10-year yields down nine basis points to 4.34%. ASX 200 futures point to a 0.13% open at 8,500, with the RBA releasing minutes from its March meeting at 11:30am AEDT today.

Key Takeaways

01 - The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.33, the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.73% to 20,795.20, and the Dow added 0.12% to 45,219.91 — Wall Street heads toward its worst quarter since 2022 with five of the Magnificent Seven now in bear market territory.

02 - The Iran war entered week five with the Strait of Hormuz still closed; Trump threatened to destroy Iranian electricity plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, while Houthi militants entered the conflict over the weekend, raising the spectre of a second shipping choke point.

03 - WTI crude rose 4.6% to $104.18 a barrel and Brent surged toward $115 intraday, putting the international benchmark on track for a record monthly percentage gain, as the Hormuz closure choked off roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows.

04 - US 10-year Treasury yields fell nine basis points to 4.34% after Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations are “well anchored beyond the short term,” though traders have fully priced out any Fed rate cuts in 2026.

05 - The IMF warned that the Iran war represents a “global, yet asymmetric” shock — “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth” — with low-income economies most exposed through surging food and fertilizer prices.

06 - ASX 200 futures are pointing to an open of 8,500, up 11 points (+0.13%); the AUD/USD is trading near 0.6844; and the RBA releases minutes from its March meeting at 11:30am AEDT today.

The Iran conflict entered a dangerous new phase over the weekend, with Houthi militants joining the fight, Israel striking Tehran, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations. The Dow Jones confirmed a correction on Friday — down more than 10% from its February peak — while the S&P 500 fell 1.67% to close its fifth straight losing week, its longest such streak since 2022. Brent crude settled at $112.57 and WTI at $99.64 as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with Iran now drafting legislation to formalise its control and toll collection over the waterway. Traditional portfolio defences have failed: bonds, gold, and crypto have all declined alongside equities in unison for four straight weeks. Private credit is adding to the stress, with Blue Owl and HPS reporting their worst monthly returns since 2022 and redemption gates now the industry norm. For Australia, ASX 200 SPI futures are pointing to a 65-point drop — 0.76% lower — as the Albanese government’s national cabinet convenes at 10am AEDT to discuss fuel rationing measures.

Key Takeaways

01 S&P 500 fell 1.67% for a fifth straight week of losses — its longest losing streak since 2022 — while the Dow confirmed a correction (down 10%+ from its February 10 record close) and the Nasdaq deepened into one.

02 The Iran war entered week five with Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel, Iran striking Gulf aluminium producers and a US base in Saudi Arabia, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations targeting the Strait of Hormuz.

03 Brent crude settled at $112.57 (+4.22%) and WTI at $99.64 (+5.4%) on Friday — up more than 70% year-to-date for WTI — as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and Iran drafted laws to codify toll collection on the waterway.

04 Traditional diversification has broken down: bonds, gold, and crypto have all fallen alongside equities for four straight weeks, with the risk-parity ETF (RPAR) down 8% and Barclays’ Dainton warning markets are underpricing oil shock risks at $110–$130/bbl.

05 Private credit stress deepens: Blue Owl Credit Income Corp lost 0.86% in February (worst since 2022) and HPS Corporate Lending Fund was down 0.3%, as redemption requests surge and asset managers begin marking down portfolios.

06 ASX 200 SPI futures point to a 65-point (-0.76%) open at 8,487 — the AUD hit a two-month low of US68.63¢ — as national cabinet meets at 10am AEDT to sign off on light-touch fuel security measures including work-from-home guidance and free public transport trials.

Thursday’s session was a mirror image of Wednesday’s brief relief rally. Iran formally rejected Washington’s 15-point peace framework, submitted its own counter-conditions, and maintained attacks on Israel — while Trump simultaneously extended the energy-attack pause by another 10 days to April 6 and claimed talks were going “very well.” Markets didn’t believe him. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% to 6,478, heading for a fifth consecutive weekly loss — its longest losing streak in almost two years. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,408, down 2.4% on the day and confirmed in correction territory, more than 10% below its October 29 record. Oil surged, bonds sold off, gold fell as the dollar surged, and crypto cracked. For the ASX, SPI futures are down 91 points or 1.1% to 8,471 — and that figure doesn’t yet fully reflect the news that Cyclone Narelle has knocked out WA’s three biggest LNG plants overnight.

S&P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,478 — fifth straight weekly loss; Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory at 21,408, down more than 10% from its October 29 record high.

Brent crude surged 5.3% to $107.64, WTI +4.2% to $94.15 — Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire proposal while Trump extended the energy-attack pause to April 6.

Gold fell 3.2% to $4,363.93 as the dollar strengthened; US 10-year yields rose 9bps to 4.42%; the 7-year Treasury auction drew the weakest demand since June 2025.

Meta Platforms dropped 8% on two US liability verdicts; memory stocks (Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, SanDisk) fell 6%–11% on a Google AI compression algorithm breakthrough.

More than $4.6 billion of private credit capital is now trapped behind redemption gates; Apollo and Blue Owl admitted the industry “could have done a better job” explaining liquidity restrictions.

ASX SPI futures -91pts (-1.1%) to 8,471; Cyclone Narelle has shut Gorgon, Wheatstone and North West Shelf, pushing global LNG supply disruption above 30% simultaneously with the Iran shock.

Tuesday’s session was defined by a single question: is Trump negotiating or escalating? His claim that Iran gave a “present” tied to Hormuz flows briefly ignited risk appetite, but the simultaneous Pentagon deployment of 2,000 82nd Airborne troops told a different story. The S&P 500 ended down just 0.4% — a small loss that understates the intraday violence. Oil bounced 4.3% as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, wiping out just a fraction of Monday’s 11% collapse. Complicating the picture further, the $1.8 trillion private credit market is showing cracks: Apollo and Ares have both gated redemptions after investors demanded back more than 11% of fund assets in a single quarter. For the ASX, SPI futures are pointing up a modest 0.14% — and February CPI prints today at 11:30am AEDT.

Key Takeaways

01

S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,556, paring a drop of nearly 1% — Nasdaq 100 -0.8%, Dow -0.2% — as mixed war signals kept buyers cautious.

02

Trump claimed Iran gave a “present” tied to Hormuz energy flows, but the Pentagon ordered 2,000 82nd Airborne troops to the region — sending contradictory signals to markets.

03

WTI crude bounced 4.3% to $91.91 and Brent settled above $104 — a partial recovery from Monday’s 9.7% and 11% collapses — as the Strait remained closed and Iran began charging transit fees.

04

Apollo and Ares have both gated private credit fund redemptions at 5% after investors requested more than 11% — a second systemic risk layer beyond the Middle East conflict.

05

Barclays raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,650 despite “more fragile” macro; Macquarie’s Wizman warned hawkish central bank responses to supply-side inflation cause “much more financial stress.”

06

ASX 200 SPI futures +0.14% at 8,398 — a muted open compared to yesterday’s surge — with February CPI the key domestic event today at 11:30am AEDT.

This is a high-stakes, information-dense update. Below is a structured YouTube description designed to capture the urgency of the market situation while maintaining the professional, skeptical tone of the transcript.

In this morning’s call, Mark Gardner breaks down the massive disconnect between recent White House claims and the reality on the ground in the Middle East. While markets bounced overnight on news of a potential "deal," our deep-dive verification suggests these claims are currently unsubstantiated.

With the April 7 structural deadline fast approaching, the risk of oil hitting the $110–$150 range remains the base case if no verified resolution is reached.

• The "Peace" Smoke Screen: Why Donald Trump’s claims of an imminent deal are currently unverified by any international or Republican officials.

• The Iran Contradiction: Iran’s flat denial of negotiations and the reality of the Pentagon’s postponed strikes.

• Oil & Shipping Data: 24 days into the conflict, we look at the 420 million barrels of cumulative oil not shipped and the true cost ($53B+) of the blockade.

• Australia’s Fuel Crisis: The alarming report that Australia may only have 24 days of fuel left, and the potential for "odds and evens" rationing and work-from-home mandates.

• Portfolio Strategy: Why this bounce might be a "hallucination loop" and why copper, lithium, and uranium remain the targets to watch if a real resolution occurs.

"If you think this is all over, you've probably got rocks in your head. This is a time to be reviewing your portfolio, not just casually flicking through Google news."

Even if a peace deal were signed today, the road to "normal" is long:

• Best Case: 12–16 weeks to return to normal.

• Base Case: 20–26 weeks.

• Insurance Reinstatement: 2–4 weeks alone.

Stay ahead of the volatility with verified global intelligence. Don't rely on overstated headlines; get the data-driven truth.

👉 Get Your First Month Free of Mosaic: mosaic.npcmarkets.com.au👉 Request a Professional Portfolio Review: Email [email protected]

#MPCmarkets #OilPrice #Gold #Silver #MarketUpdate #IranConflict #EnergyCrisis #StockMarket2026 #PortfolioStrategy

Trump’s "Peace Deal" Claims vs. Reality: The April 7 Oil DeadlineKey Topics Covered:Timing is Everything: The Recovery TimelineTake Action:

Wall Street recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.51% to a six-month low and breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Nasdaq shed 1.88%, the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.24%, and every major index now carries a “Strong Sell” technical signal on the daily and hourly timeframes. Oil surged 4.55% with Brent above $112 a barrel — up more than 50% since the Iran war began on 28 February — while gold recorded its worst week since 1983, falling 10.4% to $4,494 an ounce as safe haven flows abandoned the metal in favour of the dollar and US Treasuries. Then came the weekend escalation: President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deadline falls during Monday’s session — and Iran has vowed to retaliate against US and Gulf energy, water, and IT infrastructure if struck.

Key Takeaways

01

The S&P 500 fell 1.51% on Friday to a six-month low, completing its fourth straight weekly decline and breaking below the 200-day moving average — the index is now down roughly 4.5% year-to-date.

02

Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum over the weekend threatening to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the deadline arrives during Monday’s Asian trading session.

03

Brent crude closed above $112 a barrel — up more than 50% since the war started — as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with no US-escorted commercial tanker yet making the passage.

04

Gold recorded its worst week in more than 40 years, falling 10.4% to $4,494 an ounce, as the dollar and US Treasuries displaced it as the primary safe haven amid surging inflation expectations.

05

Markets have now fully priced out rate cuts for 2026 and are beginning to price modest hike probabilities — the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.38%, its highest level since last summer.

06

The ASX 200 fell 0.82% on Friday and is down 2.19% over five days, with all technical signals on “Strong Sell” across 1-hour, 1-day, and 1-week timeframes — futures point lower for Monday’s open.

Overnight saw another volatile session dominated by the US–Israel war on Iran. Oil initially surged 10% after Iranian strikes knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and damaged Saudi and UAE energy facilities, before easing back as Netanyahu took the podium. Equities finished modestly lower across the board — the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow 0.4%, and MSCI World dropped 0.7% — well off their worst levels. The US dollar fell sharply, with the euro and pound each gaining over 1%, while gold slid 3.5% and Bitcoin retreated. The Fed, ECB, and Bank of England all held rates but revised inflation forecasts higher. Markets now face a “triple-witching” options expiry worth $5.7 trillion, adding another layer of potential volatility to an already fragile session.Key Takeaways01Oil swung wildly — up 10% intraday before fading — after Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, wiping out 17% of Qatar’s capacity for potentially 3–5 years.02Netanyahu stated Iran can no longer enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, helping equities pare losses and oil pull back; the S&P 500 closed just 0.3% lower.03The Fed, ECB, and Bank of England all held rates steady but raised inflation forecasts, signalling rate cuts are firmly off the table while the energy shock persists.04Today’s quarterly “triple-witching” expiry of ~$5.7 trillion in options is expected to amplify intraday volatility on Wall Street and ripple through to the ASX.05Micron shares fell ~4% despite record earnings and a near-tripling of revenue, as the chipmaker flagged $25B+ in capex spending for FY2026, ~$5B above prior guidance.06Uber announced a $1.25B investment in Rivian for a robotaxi fleet, and Eli Lilly reported a record weight-loss result from an experimental diabetes drug.

Global markets endured a brutal session overnight as Iran escalated its military campaign across Gulf energy infrastructure, sending Brent crude surging near US$110 and triggering a broad risk-off selloff. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised its 2026 inflation forecast, with Powell striking a cautious tone on future rate cuts. The S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, Treasury yields climbed sharply, the dollar strengthened, and prediction markets signal only a one-in-three chance of a near-term ceasefire — leaving investors bracing for further volatility as the energy crisis deepens.

The S&P 500 fell 1.4% — its worst Fed day since 2024 — as approximately 420 of 500 stocks retreated, with the Dow down 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 also off 1.4%.

Iran struck Qatar’s energy hub and fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after its South Pars gas field suffered extensive damage, sending Brent crude surging 5.6% to near US$110 in extended trade.

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%–3.75% and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, with Powell emphasising he needs to see progress on inflation before any rate cut can proceed.

Two-year Treasury yields jumped 10 basis points to 3.77% and 10-year yields rose 6 basis points to 4.26% as traders slashed Fed easing bets to just ~15 basis points for 2026.

Prediction markets price only a 31–34% chance of a ceasefire by March 31, while Hormuz traffic normalisation by end of April sits at just 25.5% — signalling prolonged energy market disruption.

Bitcoin slid 4.9% to US$70,917 and gold fell 3.2% to US$4,845/oz as the stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment weighed on alternative assets.