The junta plans its election while turmoil engulfs Thai politics.

The junta in war-torn Myanmar has called elections with voting expected to begin on December 28 and continue well into January, which military chief Min Aung Hlaing hopes will legitimize his rule that began with a coup in early 2021.

That coup ousted an elected government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) and tipped Myanmar into a bloody civil war, which has left many thousands of people dead and forced hundreds of thousands to flee across the border into Thailand.

The military is now in control of just 30 percent of the country as it battles a mix of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the People’s Defense Forces.

Mae Sot-based military analyst Paul Greening spoke with The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt about the pending poll and a recent offensive launched by the military across the country, aimed at retaking territory lost to the EAOs over the past two years.

Its likely outcomes include a gradual acceptance by ASEAN and Western countries of the poll result, which critics say will be rigged with the backing of China and Russia.

It’s an assessment backed by Greening’s historical take on elections in Myanmar dating back to the Second World War, and how history appears destined to repeat itself despite the objections of the rebels, civil society groups, and those who have opposed the coup.

Greening also shares his thoughts about suspended Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who could be forced to resign on Friday when the Constitutional Court delivers its verdict over an ethics violation, potentially triggering fresh elections.